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Decline in DRAM ASP Narrows to 10~15% in 2Q23 with No End in Sight

TrendForce reports that several suppliers, such as Micron and SK hynix, have started scaling back DRAM production. The ASP of DRAM plunged 20% in 1Q23, and this price decline is predicted to slow down to 10~15% next quarter. It's uncertain whether or not demand will recover in 2H23. Therefore, the ASP of DRAM has continued to fall as inventory levels are high from the suppliers' side, and prices will only rebound if there is a significant decrease in production.

PC DRAM: Purchase quantity from buyers has fallen drastically over the past three quarters; buyers have around 9~13 weeks of PC DRAM stock remaining. Despite suppliers having already cut production in the PC DRAM segment, DDR4 8 GB module is still likely to fall by more than 10% in 2Q23. There is a possibility that PC OEMs may purchase more DRAM because prices have been down to a relatively low level, but it is still under observation whether or not this can mitigate the inventory overstock situation from the suppliers' side. TrendForce predicts the ASP of PC DRAM will fall between 10~15%.

TSMC's 3 nm Node at Near 50 Percent Utilisation, Other Nodes Seeing Lower Demand

Based on multiple reports out of Taiwan, TSMC is seeing increased utilisation of its 3 nm node and its production line is now at close to 50 percent utilisation. The main customer here is without a doubt Apple and TSMC is churning out some 50-55,000 wafers a month on its 3 nm node. TSMC is also getting ready to start production on its N3E node later this year, which will see some customers move to the node.

However, it's not all good news, as TSMC is seeing a decline in utilisation on its 5/4 and 7/6 nm nodes as demand has dropped significantly here, with different news outlets reporting different figures. Some are suggesting the 7/6 nm nodes might have dropped as low as to 50 percent utilisation, others mention 70 percent. The 5/4 nm nodes aren't anywhere nearly as badly affected and remain at around 80 percent utilisation. The good news for TSMC is that this is expected to be a temporary slump in demand and most of its leading edge nodes should be back at somewhere around a 90 percent utilisation rate by the second half of the year. However, this depends on what the demand for its partners' products will look like going forward, as many of TSMC's customers are seeing lower demand for their products in turn.

Intel Ups Demand on Subsidies from German Government for New Fab to €5 Billion

Last month, reports were saying that Intel wanted an additional €3.2 billion from the German government in subsidies to build its fab in Magdeburg, but apparently that wasn't nearly enough, as the company has increased its demands to somewhere between €4 billion to €5 billion. What triggered Intel to go ask the German government for even more cash is most likely a combination of things, as Intel is going to want to cover increases in costs courtesy of interest hikes and the inflation that's going on globally, alongside soaring energy prices in Europe. The expected cost of the new fab is said to have increased from €17 billion to €30 billion, which is not exactly pocket change.

In a statement to Bloomberg, Intel said that "disruptions in the global economy have resulted in increased costs, from construction materials to energy," and continued "We appreciate the constructive dialogue with the federal government to address the cost gap that exists with building in other locations and make this project globally competitive." The construction start of the Magdeburg fab has already been delayed and according to Bloomberg, Intel is also considering delaying its planned assembly factory in Italy. It doesn't look promising for either party, as Intel seems to want to spend as little as possible on building its new facilities, while expecting various governments around the world to prop it up until the new facilities are making money. Hopefully neither nation will agree to Intel changing the terms of the deals, as it could cost more nations more than they would earn in long term revenue from Intel.

Shipments of AI Servers Will Climb at CAGR of 10.8% from 2022 to 2026

According to TrendForce's latest survey of the server market, many cloud service providers (CSPs) have begun large-scale investments in the kinds of equipment that support artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. This development is in response to the emergence of new applications such as self-driving cars, artificial intelligence of things (AIoT), and edge computing since 2018. TrendForce estimates that in 2022, AI servers that are equipped with general-purpose GPUs (GPGPUs) accounted for almost 1% of annual global server shipments. Moving into 2023, shipments of AI servers are projected to grow by 8% YoY thanks to ChatBot and similar applications generating demand across AI-related fields. Furthermore, shipments of AI servers are forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 10.8% from 2022 to 2026.

Revenue from Enterprise SSDs Totaled Just US$3.79 Billion for 4Q22 Due to Slumping Demand and Widening Decline in SSD Contract Prices, Says TrendForce

Looking back at 2H22, as server OEMs slowed down the momentum of their product shipments, Chinese server buyers also held a conservative outlook on future demand and focused on inventory reduction. Thus, the flow of orders for enterprise SSDs remained sluggish. However, NAND Flash suppliers had to step up shipments of enterprise SSDs during 2H22 because the demand for storage components equipped in notebook (laptop) computers and smartphones had undergone very large downward corrections. Compared with other categories of NAND Flash products, enterprise SSDs represented the only significant source of bit consumption. Ultimately, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, the QoQ decline in prices of enterprise SSDs widened to 25% for 4Q22. This price plunge, in turn, caused the quarterly total revenue from enterprise SSDs to drop by 27.4% QoQ to around US$3.79 billion. TrendForce projects that the NAND Flash industry will again post a QoQ decline in the revenue from this product category for 1Q23.

Amid Slowing PC Demand, Dell Lays Off 6,650 Employees

Dell, the global PC conglomerate, is reportedly cutting the number of its employees. The alleged move is a direct response to the economic downturn caused by declining demand for PCs, which is Dell's primary source of revenue. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Dell is laying off about 5% of its global workforce, representing 6,650 employees from its offices. As the source notes, Dell is going under re-evaluation of its operations, and the employee headcount reduction is the affected area that will benefit the company an estimated 700 million to one billion US Dollars, as analysts predict.

IDC notes that shipments of Dell PCs have experienced the most significant decline of 37% in Q4 of 2022, compared to the same period in 2021. And given a considerable downturn, Dell's 55% of revenue from PCs is poorly affected. The company is now joining others in big tech in performing layoffs to keep profits afloat.

Projected YoY Growth Rate of Global Server Shipments for 2023 Has Been Lowered to 1.87% Due to North American Cloud Service Providers Cutting Demand

Facing global economic headwinds, the four major North American cloud service providers (CSPs) have scaled back their server procurement quantities for 2023 and could make further downward corrections in the future. Meta is the leader among the four in terms of server demand reduction, followed by Microsoft, Google, and AWS. TrendForce has lowered the YoY growth rate of their total server procurement quantity for this year from the original projection of 6.9% to the latest projection of 4.4%. With CSPs cutting demand, global server shipments are now estimated to grow by just 1.87% YoY for 2023. Regarding the server DRAM market, prices there are estimated to drop by around 20~25% QoQ for 1Q23 as CSPs' downward corrections exacerbate the oversupply situation.

Looking at the four CSPs individually, the YoY decline of Meta's server procurement quantity has been widened to 3.0% and could get larger. The instability of the global economy remains the largest variable for all CSPs. Besides this, Meta has also encountered a notable obstacle in expanding its operation in Europe. Specifically, its data center in Denmark has not met the regional standard for emissions. This issue is expected to hinder its progress in setting up additional data centers across the EU. Moreover, businesses related to e-commerce account for about 98% of Meta's revenue. Therefore, the decline in e-commerce activities amidst the recent easing of the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted Meta's growth momentum. Additionally, Meta's server demand has been affected by the high level of component inventory held by server ODMs.

Foundry Revenue is Forecasted to Drop by 4% YoY for 2023, TrendForce Notes

TrendForce's recent analysis of the foundry market reveals that demand continues to slide for all types of mature and advanced nodes. The major IC design houses have cut wafer input for 1Q23 and will likely scale back further for 2Q23. Currently, foundries are expected to maintain a lower-than-ideal level of capacity utilization rate in the first two quarters of this year. Some nodes could experience a steeper demand drop in 2Q23 as there are still no signs of a significant rebound in wafer orders. Looking ahead to the second half of this year, orders will likely pick up for some components that underwent an inventory correction at an earlier time. However, the state of the global economy will remain the largest variable that affect demand, and the recovery of individual foundries' capacity utilization rates will not occur as quickly as expected. Taking these factors into account, TrendForce currently forecasts that global foundry revenue will drop by around 4% YoY for 2023. The projected decline for 2023 is more severe when compared with the one that was recorded for 2019.

South Korean Chip Makers Affected by Slump in Chip Demand

It's not just TSMC and the other Taiwanese chip makers that are seeing a dip in demand, the Korean chip makers have seen a slump of 15 percent in the past four months, compared to 2021. This is said to be the biggest drop in chip demand since 2009 according to data from Statistics Korea. There's a combination of factors behind the slump in demand, especially when it comes to memory related products, where inventories already are high, combined with inflation and a low demand.

According to the Financial Times, an analyst at JPMorgan in Korea isn't expecting things to improve until 2024 at the earliest. Just like Micron and Kioxia, SK hynix is looking at cutting spending on new fabs and production lines, although as TPU reported earlier this week, Samsung is going its own way, by continuing to invest in new fabs and production lines. Samsung is expected to have a capex of US$37.5 billion this year back in October, although based on the increase in costs, the capex would have increased in the fourth quarter of the year. On the plus side, it seems like the shortage of semiconductors should ease in 2023 and hopefully return to more normal levels.

Top 10 TSMC Customers Said to have Cut Orders for 2023

On the day of TSMC's celebration of the mass production start of its 3 nm node, news out of Taiwan suggests that all of its top 10 customers have cut their orders for 2023. However, the cuts are unlikely to affect its new node, but rather its existing nodes, with the 7 and 6 nm nodes said to be hit the hardest, by as much as a 50 percent utilisation reduction in the first quarter of 2023. The 28 nm and 5 and 4 nm nodes are also said to be affected, although it's unclear by how much at this point in time.

Revenue is expected to fall by at least 15 percent in the first quarter of 2023 for TSMC, based on numbers from DigiTimes. The fact that TSMC has increased its 2023 pricing by six percent should at least help offset some of the potential losses for the company, but it all depends on the demand for the rest of the year. Demand for mobile devices is down globally, which is part of the reason why so many of TSMC's customers have cut back their orders, as Apple, Qualcomm and Mediatek all produce their mobile SoCs at TSMC. Add to this that the demand for computers and new computer components are also down, largely due to the current pricing and TSMC is in for a tough time next year.

YoY Growth of NAND Flash Demand Bits Will Stay Under 30% from 2022 to 2025 as Demand Slows for PC Client SSDs, Says TrendForce

Client SSDs constituted a major driver of demand bit growth in the NAND Flash market for the past two years as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were spurring procurement activities related to working and studying from home. TrendForce currently projects that the attach rate of client SSDs among notebook computers will reach 92% in 2022 and around 96% in 2023. However, the demand surge related to the pandemic is subsiding, and the recent headwinds in the global economy have caused a demand freeze in the wider consumer electronics market. Hence, among the major application segments of the NAND Flash market, client SSDs are going to experience the most significant demand slowdown. This, in turn, will constrain demand bit growth as well. TrendForce projects that for the period from 2022 to 2025, the YoY growth rate of NAND Flash demand bits will remain below 30%.

The average NAND Flash content of client SSDs has already surpassed 500 GB this year. Quotes for 512 GB SSDs have fallen sharply and come to a level that is roughly comparable to the quotes that were given for 256 GB SSDs half-a-year ago. In fact, quotes for 512 GB SSDs are also near the level for HDDs with the same capacity. On the other hand, upgrading to 1 TB or higher for notebook SSDs could be challenging for PC OEMs mainly because the licensing fee for the Windows OS has a positive correlation with device specifications. Therefore, an increase in SSD capacity will raise the cost of a whole notebook computer. With PC OEMs being less keen on adopting SSDs that are 1 TB or higher, growth in the average NAND Flash content of client SSDs will also be more limited in the future.

YMTC Could Abandon Market for 3D NAND Flash by 2024 Following US Government's Decision to Place It on Entity List, Says TrendForce

Global market intelligence firm TrendForce states that Chinese memory manufacturer YMTC is now at risk of exiting the market for 3D NAND Flash products by 2024 following its formal placement on the Entity List of the US Commerce Department on December 15. From this point forward, the Commerce Department will be reviewing and approving individual transactions related to the exportation, re-exportation, and sales of equipment, technologies, and other related goods from the US to YMTC. With acquisitions of equipment parts and technical support from its US partners becoming very difficult and prolonged, YMTC is going to be severely constrained from raising its bit output. Hence, its foothold on the market for 3D NAND Flash products is expected to weaken as time goes by.

TrendForce points out that without the support of the key equipment providers, YMTC is now facing a huge technical obstacle in the development of its latest 3D NAND Flash technology known as Xtacking 3.0. In particular, raising yield rate for the 128L and 232L processes is going to be extremely challenging for the Chinese memory manufacturer. Taking account of this latest escalation in the US-China trade dispute, TrendForce has further corrected down its projections on YMTC's supply bit growth rate and the total NAND Flash supply bit growth rate for next year. YMTC supply bits were initially forecasted to grow by 60% YoY for 2023. However, there was a massive downward correction that put its growth rate at just 18%. Now, YMTC is forecasted to post a YoY decline of 7%, which is a complete reversal from the earlier projections.

Total Revenue of Global Top 10 IC Design Houses for 3Q22 Showed QoQ Drop of 5.3%; Broadcom Overtaking NVIDIA and AMD

Global market intelligence firm TrendForce reports that the revenue generation momentum of the global IC design industry slowed down in 3Q22. The main factors behind this development were the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, the recent COVID-19 lockdowns in China, the ongoing inflation, and clients undergoing inventory corrections. The total revenue of the global top 10 IC design houses came to US$37.38 billion for 3Q22, showing a QoQ decline of 5.3%. Qualcomm remained first place in the ranking of the global top 10 IC design houses by revenue for 3Q22. Broadcom returned to second place by overtaking NVIDIA and AMD, who slipped to third and fourth respectively due to weakening demand for PCs and cryptocurrency mining machines.

Regarding US-based IC design houses that were in the top 10 group for 3Q22, Qualcomm recorded a QoQ increase for the sales of smartphone SoCs and 5G modem chips. It also made gains in the automotive electronics market by expanding its collaborations with partners in the automotive industry. As a result, Qualcomm's 3Q22 revenue figures for mobile and automotive offerings reflected QoQ increases of 6.8% and 22.0% respectively. The revenue growth of these two major product categories offset the marginal decline in the revenue for RF front-end chips. Qualcomm's IC design revenue as a whole climbed up by 5.6% QoQ to US$9.90 billion for 3Q22. The company sat firmly at the top of the ranking.

IDC Tracker Forecast Sees Further Contraction for the Global PC and Tablet Markets with Commercial PC Demand Remaining the One Clear Opportunity

In a new International Data Corporation (IDC) forecast, the outlook for PCs and tablets continues to get worse. Worldwide PC and tablet shipments are forecast to decline 11.9% in 2022 with volumes shrinking to 456.8 million units, followed by a further decline in 2023. According to the IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, traditional PCs will see shipments drop 5.6% to 281 million units in 2023 while tablets will decline 6.7% to 148 million units.

Despite the sharp decline, shipment volumes will remain above pre-pandemic levels although the market will continue to be challenged by macroeconomic headwinds, excess channel inventory, and high levels of saturation. While the PC market is expected to fare better than tablets with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just over 1% expected over the five-year forecast, tablets are expected to have a CAGR of -1.7% over the same period.

TSMC Cuts Back CAPEX Budget Despite Record Profits

Another quarter, another record breaking earnings report by TSMC, but it seems like the company has released that things are set to slow down sooner than initially expected and the company is hitting the brakes on some of its expansion projects. The company saw a 79.7 percent increase in profits compared to last year, with a profit of US$8.8 billion and a revenue of somewhere between US$19.9 to US$ 20.7 billion for the third quarter, which is a 47.9 percent bump compared to last year. TSMC's 5 nm nodes were the source for 28 percent of the revenues, followed by 26 percent for 7 nm nodes, 12 percent for 16 nm and 10 percent for 28 nm, with remaining nodes at 40 nm and larger making up for the remainder of the revenue. By platform, smartphone chips made up 41 percent, followed by High Performance Computing at 39 percent, IoT at 10 percent and automotive at five percent.

TSMC said it will cut back its CAPEX budget by around US$4 billion, to US$36 billion, compared to the earlier stated US$40 billion budget the company had set aside for expanding its fabs. Part of the reason for this is that TSMC is already seeing weaker demand for products manufactured using its N7 and N6 nodes, as the N7 node was meant to be a key part of the new fab in Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan. TSMC is expecting to start production on its first N3 node later this quarter and is expecting the capacity to be fully utilised for all of 2023. Supply is said to be exceeding demand, which TSMC said is partially to blame on tooling delivery issues. TSMC is expecting next year's revenue for its N3 node to be higher than its N5 node in 2020, although the revenue is said to be in the single digit percentage range. The N3E node is said to start production sometime in the second half of next year, or about a quarter earlier than expected. The N2 node isn't due to start production until 2025, but TSMC is already having very high customer engagement, so it doesn't look like TSMC is likely to suffer from a lack of business in the foreseeable future, as long as the company keeps delivering new nodes as planned.

DRAM Q4 Price Drop to Expand to 13~18% Due to Weak Consumer Demand

According to TrendForce research, rising inflation has weakened demand for consumer products, flattening the peak of peak season. In 3Q22, memory bit consumption and shipments continued to exhibit quarterly decline. Due to a significant decline in memory demand, terminal buyers also delayed purchases, leading to further escalation of supplier inventory pressure. At the same time, the strategies of various DRAM suppliers to increase their market share remain unchanged. There have been cases of "consolidated Q3/Q4 price negotiations" or "negotiating quantity before pricing" in the market, which are the reasons leading to a ballooning of declining DRAM prices to 13~18% in 4Q22.

In terms of PC DRAM, due to weak demand for notebooks, PC OEMs will remain focused on destocking DRAM inventory. While the DRAM supply side has not actually reduced production since operating profit remains favorable, bit output continues to rise and pressure on suppliers' inventory becomes increasingly obvious. From the perspective of DDR4 and DDR5, the price drop forecast in 4Q22 is 13~18% with DDR5 declining more than DDR4. However, as the penetration rate of DDR5 continues to rise, coupled with a higher unit price, the penetration rate of DDR5 in the PC DRAM sector will increase 13~15% in 4Q22, which will buoy the average unit price of overall PC DRAM (combined DDR5 and DDR4) marginally and PC DRAM pricing in 4Q22 is estimated to drop by approximately 10~15%.

Historically Low 2023 DRAM Demand Bit Growth at Only 8.3%, NAND Flash Expected to Drive Installed Capacity Growth Due to Falling Prices

According to TrendForce, DRAM market demand bit growth will only amount to 8.3% in 2023, sub-10% for the first time in history, and far lower than supply-side bit growth of approximately 14.1%. Data indicates the DRAM market to be severely oversupplied at least in 2023 and prices may continue to decline. NAND Flash is still in a state of oversupply and, although prices are expected to fall in the first half of next year, NAND Flash has built-in price elasticity compared to DRAM and average prices are expected to stimulate density growth in the enterprise SSD market after declining for several consecutive quarters. Demand bits are expected to grow by 28.9%, while supply bits will grow by approximately 32.1%.

From the perspective of various applications, rising inflation continues to impact demand in consumer markets, so the primary goal of memory brands has been to prioritize inventory correction. Especially in the past two years, a shortage of upstream components caused by the pandemic led memory brands to overbook purchase orders while sluggish sales on the distribution channel side have resulted in slow depletion of current notebook inventory, resulting in a further weakening of notebook demand in 2023. In terms of PC DRAM, the proportion of DDR4 and LPDDR4X in PC applications will fall further while the penetration rate of LPDDR5 and DDR5 continues to rise. However, the price premium of DDR5 will limit the growth of density in PCs. DRAM density in PCs is estimate to increase by approximately 7% annually in 2023. If manufactures cut DDR5 pricing more aggressively next year, installed capacity may be driven up to 9%, depending on whether DDR5 price concessions can be effectively reconciled with DDR4.

LCD Monitor Demand Continues to Weaken in 2H22, Annual Shipments at Only 139.9 Million Units, Says TrendForce

According to TrendForce research, global LCD monitor shipments reached 72.3 million units in 1H22, a level on par with to the same period in 2021. Certain whole devices orders in 4Q21 were deferred to 1Q22 due to logistics and transportation issues. In addition, some brands felt optimistic regarding the outlook for 2022, so they initiated aggressive promotions to stimulate sales in 1Q22. Although the Russian-Ukrainian war and rising inflation have seriously impacted demand in the European consumer market since Q2, demand for business models is still positive, which in turn bridges the gap left by the consumer market.

Looking forward to LCD monitor market trends in 2H22, TrendForce indicates, since most orders for business models had been digested by the end of 2Q22, coupled with the sluggishness of new orders, overall business demand momentum has not been as good as in 1H22. Consumer models are affected by rising inflation and interest rate hikes in the United States and market consumption continues in lethargy. LCD monitor shipments are expected to decrease by 5.4% and 2.4% QoQ in 3Q22 and 4Q22, respectively. The proportion of shipments in the first and second half of the year will fall at approximately 51.7: 48.3.

ASML Reports €5.4 Billion Net Sales and €1.4 Billion Net Income in Q2 2022

Today ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2022 second-quarter results. Q2 net sales of €5.4 billion, gross margin of 49.1%, net income of €1.4 billion. Record quarterly net bookings in Q2 of €8.5 billion. ASML expects Q3 2022 net sales between €5.1 billion and €5.4 billion and a gross margin between 49% and 50%. Expected sales growth for the full year of around 10%.

The value of fast shipments*in 2022 leading to delayed revenue recognition into 2023 is expected to increase from around €1 billion to around €2.8 billion.
"Our second-quarter net sales came in at €5.4 billion with a gross margin of 49.1%. Demand from our customers remains very strong, as reflected by record net bookings in the second quarter of €8.5 billion, including €5.4 billion from 0.33 NA and 0.55 NA EUV systems as well as strong DUV bookings.

IDC: Worldwide PC Shipments Fall 15.3% in the Second Quarter of 2022 as Supply and Demand Both Waver

Worldwide shipments of traditional PCs declined 15.3% year over year to 71.3 million units in the second quarter of 2022 (2Q22), according to preliminary results from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. This was the second consecutive quarter of lower shipments following two years of growth. The decline was worse than expected as supply and logistics further deteriorated due to the lockdowns in China and persistent macroeconomic headwinds.

"Fears over a recession continue to mount and weaken demand across segments," said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC's Mobile Device trackers. "Consumer demand for PCs has weakened in the near term and is at risk of perishing in the long term as consumers become more cautious about their spending and once again grow accustomed to computing across device types such as phones and tablets. Meanwhile, commercial demand has been more robust although it has also declined as businesses delay purchases."

LCD Monitor Panel shipments Forecast to Drop 11.3% QoQ in 2Q22 with Weak Demand Continuing into 2H22, Says TrendForce

According to TrendForce research, terminal demand remains weak due to repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, rising inflation, and China's pandemic lockdowns as monitor brands began to reduce purchasing of LCD monitor panels in 2Q22. LCD monitors panel shipments in 2Q22 are estimated at 42.5 million units, down 11.3% QoQ. According to TrendForce analysis, monitor brands set fairly high shipment targets in early 2022. Coupled with the impact of LCD monitor panel shortages in 2021, monitor brands gravitated towards overbuying panels in 1Q22 to prepare for ensuing shipments. Driven by strong demand from monitor brands, shipments of LCD monitor panels reached 47.9 million units in 1Q22, up 20% YoY, the highest level for the period since 2012.

However, due to changes in the international political and economic landscape in February this year, the market for consumer models has cooled and monitor brands have successively revised their LCD monitor shipment targets downward and simultaneously lowered their panel purchase volumes. In the face of interest rate hikes by the world's major central banks and slowing economic growth, companies have also begun exercising caution in terms of capital expenditures, which has slowed demand for business-grade LCD monitors. In the past, inventory issues emerged and the overall market became oversupplied when monitor brands overstocked as consumer and business demand gradually cooled.

Memory Prices Going Down by Up to 8% in this Quarter, Says TrendForce

According to TrendForce research, despite the significance of peak season and rising DDR5 penetration, the 3Q22 DRAM market still succumbed to the negative impact of weak consumer electronics demand resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war and high inflation, which in turn led to an increase in overall DRAM inventory. This is the primary reason for a 3-8% drop in DRAM prices in 3Q22 and a more than 8% pricing dip in certain DRAM products for PCs and smart phones cannot be ruled out.

In terms of PC DRAM, sustained weakening of demand has led to PC OEMs adjusting their annual shipment targets and also caused DRAM inventories to soar rapidly. In 3Q22, PC OEMs remain focused on adjusting and destocking DRAM inventories, making a rebound in purchasing momentum unlikely. At the same time, since the overall DRAM industry remains oversupplied, even if PC demand is sluggish, suppliers still experienced difficulties in reducing their PC DRAM supply, resulting in a slight quarterly increase in the number of supplied bits. Therefore, PC DRAM pricing is forecast to drop by 3~8%

Prices of Consumer-Spec MLCCs Will Drop Further by 3-6% in 2H22 as Demand Continues to Weaken, Says TrendForce

With the course of the COVID-19 pandemic constantly changing, China is sticking with its "Dynamic Zero-COVID Policy" and has been slow to lift the lockdown on its cities that have been recently affected by the outbreaks of the disease. Hence, the manufacturing industries of the major Chinese cities are facing delays in the resumption of normal operation, and a production gap has emerged in 2Q22. For the electronics ODMs, this production gap will be difficult to bridge in 2H22. Additionally, the ongoing global inflation is keeping prices of goods at a very high level, and this trend will dampen the peak-season demand surge during the second half of the year. The effect of the inflationary pressure has been especially noticeable in the demand for consumer electronics such as smartphones, notebook computers, and tablet computers. This, in turn, is also impacting the MLCC market in terms of demand and inventory. Currently, the general inventory level has risen above 90 days for MLCCs of all sizes. Therefore, TrendForce forecasts that prices of consumer-spec MLCCs will fall further by 3-6% on average in 2H22.

On the other hand, demand remains fairly strong in application segments such as high-performance computing solutions (which include servers), networking equipment, industrial automation solutions, and energy storage systems. Furthermore, IDMs in the semiconductor industry will be adjusting the allocation of production capacity as the market for consumer electronics continues to experience a slowdown in 2H22. As a result, the undersupply situation for certain ICs will ease. Moreover, demand will be propped up in the high-end segment of the MLCC market and other application segments (e.g., automotive electronics and industrial equipment). All in all, thanks to the demand related to automotive electronics, servers, networking equipment, etc., TrendForce forecasts that the annual total MLCC shipments will increase by 2% YoY to around 2.58 trillion pieces for 2022.

Rising Demand and Rush Order Pricing Drive 14.1% QoQ Enterprise SSD Revenue Growth in 1Q22, Says TrendForce

According to TrendForce research, North American data centers saw an improvement in components supply after February, driving a recovery in purchase order volume. As Server brands returned to normal in-office work following the pandemic, the increase in capital expenditures on related information equipment has also boosted order growth. The addition of Kioxia's raw material contamination incident led to an increase in the pricing of certain rush orders, pushing up overall Enterprise SSD revenue in 1Q22 to US$5.58 billion, or 14.1% growth QoQ.

According to TrendForce, Samsung and SK hynix (including Solidigm) were the top two players in 1Q22. At the beginning of the year, demand from hyperscale data centers resulted in high inventory levels due to component mismatches, leading Samsung's order growth missing expectations. However, as repercussions from the WDC and Kioxia contamination incident hit NAND Flash production capacity in 1Q22, server customers quickly turned to Samsung for additional orders, driving the company's 1Q22 revenue to US$2.77 billion, up 14.8% QoQ.

Amid Weakening Consumer Demand and Falling Prices, Total NAND Flash Revenue Declined 3.0% in 1Q22, Says TrendForce

According to TrendForce research, as manufacturers actively shifted production capacity to 128 layer products, the market turned to oversupply, resulting in a drop in contract prices in 1Q22, among which the decline in consumer-grade products was more pronounced. Although enterprise SSD purchase order volume has grown, demand for smart phone bits has weakened due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the traditional off-season, and rising inflation. Client inventories have increased significantly, so it remains challenging for overall bit shipment volume to offset potential decline. In 1Q22, NAND Flash bit shipments and average selling prices fell by 0.5% and 2.3%, respectively, resulting in a 3.0% quarterly decrease in overall industry revenue to US$17.92 billion.

Although China's smartphone stocking momentum was marginally weak considering the off-season, due to sluggish supply on the part of Kioxia and WDC, Samsung's 1Q22 client SSD shipment bit growth was driven up by an influx of rush orders and North American enterprise SSD client orders also recovered significantly in March. Overall bit shipments increased by 9% QoQ and ASP decreased by 2% QoQ. In 1Q22, the NAND Flash portion of Samsung's electronics business posted revenue of US$6.32 billion, up 3.4% QoQ.
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