Monday, June 10th 2024

Nightmare Fuel for Intel: Arm CEO Predicts Arm will Take Over 50% Windows PC Market-share by 2029

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btarunr
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Arm CEO Rene Haas predicts that SoCs based on the Arm CPU machine architecture will beat x86 in the Windows PC space in the next 5 years (by 2029). Haas is bullish about the current crop of Arm SoCs striking the right balance of performance and power efficiency, along with just the right blend of on-chip acceleration for AI and graphics, to make serious gains in this market, which has traditionally been dominated by the x86 machine architecture, with chips from just two manufacturers—Intel and AMD. On the other hand, Arm has a vibrant ecosystem of SoC vendors. "Arm's market share in Windows - I think, truly, in the next five years, it could be better than 50%." Haas said, in an interview with Reuters.

Currently, Microsoft has an exclusive deal with Qualcomm to power Windows-on-Arm (WoA) Copilot+ AI PCs. Qualcomm's chip lineup spans the Snapdragon Elite X and Snapdragon Elite Plus. This exclusivity, however, could change, with a recent interview of Michael Dell and Jensen Huang hinting at NVIDIA working on a chip for the AI PC market. The writing is on the wall for Intel and AMD—they need to compete with Arm on its terms: to make leaner PC processors with the kinds of performance/Watt and chip costs that Arm SoCs offer to PC OEMs. Intel has taken a big step in this direction with its "Lunar Lake" processor, you can read all about the architecture here.
Source: Electronics Weekly

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112 Comments on Nightmare Fuel for Intel: Arm CEO Predicts Arm will Take Over 50% Windows PC Market-share by 2029

#76
psydroid
ARFCan you explain the failure of this instruction: AVX-512? It turned out to be a power hog, and was abandoned.
Why was that? And what solution does RISC-V have to compute as an alternative?
RISC-V has the now ratified RVV 1.0 version whereas most chips available on the market so far have implemented the RVV 0.7.1 version. ARM has SVE2 and SME.

I would say that these extensions are better designed than anything you can get on x86. And you also only have to write your code once instead of adapting it to the specific width of the vector unit as is the case with AVX/2/512.

But I expect much specialised processing to take place via custom accelerators in the future.
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#77
Darmok N Jalad
phanbueySo dell is getting its lunch eaten by apple - their move to qualcomm was to combat the M chips -- the difference between Intel and AMD chips in laptops vs ARM is actually pretty slim -- AMD is better but not by that much, and it's nowhere near M3-M4 levels of performance. X86 is slow and hot as hell - my 7845hx below in an Asus G17 (big boi)...


Intel / AMD can't touch ARM or the Apple M's ARM based design in performance/watt
So is that at idle or under load? If it's under load, that's nothing. My M2 MBA hits 105C under sustained loads, and jumps to 80C on bursty sustained tasks. Idling around, it's more like 45C. I'd be very surprised if SDX doesn't hit 100C too. It's just how these smaller nodes work.
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#78
mechtech
If windows carries on the path it's headed it might be 50% linux / 50% windows lol (excluding corp %)
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#79
phanbuey
Darmok N JaladSo is that at idle or under load? If it's under load, that's nothing. My M2 MBA hits 105C under sustained loads, and jumps to 80C on bursty sustained tasks. Idling around, it's more like 45C. I'd be very surprised if SDX doesn't hit 100C too. It's just how these smaller nodes work.
Idle... it idles at 90... it loads at 93C and depending on fan profile, boosts to max thermal headroom - so fans on for load, fans off idle at 90C (usage 8%)
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#80
Darmok N Jalad
phanbueyIdle... it idles at 90... it loads at 93C and depending on fan profile, boosts to max thermal headroom - so fans on for load, fans off idle at 90C (usage 8%)
Yikes! Is that normal? I know the Ryzens like that 90C area even under a big cooler, but I always thought that was when loaded, not idle.
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#81
Denver
phanbueySo dell is getting its lunch eaten by apple - their move to qualcomm was to combat the M chips -- the difference between Intel and AMD chips in laptops vs ARM is actually pretty slim -- AMD is better but not by that much, and it's nowhere near M3-M4 levels of performance. X86 is slow and hot as hell - my 7845hx below in an Asus G17 (big boi)...


Intel / AMD can't touch ARM or the Apple M's ARM based design in performance/watt.
That's not ARM, which is much more efficient. It's the platform as a whole that Apple totally controls, from the hardware to the OS to the software. They can do a much better level of optimization for their closed ecosystem.

Windows itself is a resource-wasting layer in the middle.
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#82
phanbuey
Darmok N JaladYikes! Is that normal? I know the Ryzens like that 90C area even under a big cooler, but I always thought that was when loaded, not idle.
Yeah I mean it idles at 25W... so with the silent fan profile the asus bios lets the cores idle from 80-90C before ramping fans.
DenverThat's not ARM, which is much more efficient. It's the platform as a whole that Apple totally controls, from the hardware to the OS to the software. They can do a much better level of optimization for their closed ecosystem.

Windows itself is a resource-wasting layer in the middle.
True, a clean Linux install is much lighter in terms of resources, but even with optimized linux kernels the battery life on x86 is hot garbage.

SDX is on PC is going to have a much harder time because of what you're saying though.
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#83
ScaLibBDP
Ferrum MasterNot sure... but what keeps Intel from making ARM too? They actually do already in Alteras... so what's the problem?

From where these Yellow press ideas come from?
Altera chips with ARM processors are related to FPGAs and Not related to Windows PC market.

Intel purchased Altera a couple of years ago in order to compete with Xilinx FPGAs of AMD.

Intel let Altera go a couple of month ago and Altera is an independent company again. So, Intel failed to compete with Xilinx FPGAs of AMD.

Speaking about 50% of Windows working on ARM processors by 2029. It is Too optimistic! I do Not believe Windows on ARM will even reach 10% by 2029. This is because Microsoft has a lot of exclusive deals worth of Billions of dollars with Intel.
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#84
phanbuey
If there is a transistion to ARM that's 50% by 2029 prepare for an absolute SH*T show with software and compatibility in the windows ecosystem. MS is so sloppy with their stuff we still have 4 different control panels that all do the same things and overwrite each other.

They're almost better off spinning up a new platform.
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#85
remixedcat
as long as there's linux support for it
john_Dell supporting Qualcomm
where are qualcomm's made?? TSMC??
kondaminThose reviews should be landing this week as embargo's should be lifted I think tomorrow or tonight.
Pretty certain results will be very good for general use and software that has gotten optimizations.

I think the bigger issue is going to come later when more chips enter the market that don't have all the extensions on soc or different configurations and make arm on windows a minefield where davinci resolve on a laptop with a snapdragon X works like a champ but on a laptop with snapdragon Y doesn't work at all as it's a .x hardwave version and blackmagic can't be bothered to fix it like they never bothered fixing for vega
I just hope bitwig studio has ARM support soon too for snapdragon x elite!
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#86
Minus Infinity
Ferrum MasterNot sure... but what keeps Intel from making ARM too? They actually do already in Alteras... so what's the problem?

From where these Yellow press ideas come from?
Probably Pat's comments that Intel don't need to do ARM to make efficient, powerful SoC's. Nvidia and AMD are also going down the ARM route in 2025 and 2026 respectively, and apparently more players are going to enter the market. I think Pat's arguing they are all in his rear vision mirror at this stageand Lunar Lake will show they don't need ARM . Intel insiders are worried they'll miss the boat. Lisa Su is making a big push into hybrid ARM processors for 2026 and pouring the resources and money into the venture but will pull the plug if it does not hit their targets on efficiency and performance.
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#88
R0H1T
ScaLibBDPIntel purchased Altera a couple of years ago in order to compete with Xilinx FPGAs of AMD.
What? They purchased it quite some time back, probably at least half a decade earlier than Xilinx/AMD merger ~ it's in fact a response to Intel's purchase as Xilinx standalone couldn't compete with them longer term!

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altera

2015 so way way back!
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#89
Ferrum Master
Minus InfinityProbably Pat's comments that Intel don't need to do ARM to make efficient, powerful SoC's.
While it may be 1000% true... I still think they will act the same as you mentioned AMD does. They are toying around and evaluating every aspect just as everyone does. If it does not hit the target, then kill it. I mentioned Altera just because of legal issues, even split off, Intel is the largest owner, they have no hurdles around surrounding components and patents to make such thing, just as AMD can because of Xilinx, many don't understand that the ARM license alone is enough to glue a CPU together, also worth saying Altera has NIOS-V with RISC-V and most importantly with the robust Quartus Prime toolchain... while others are still in their wet dreams and plans... they actually have a pretty robust start point already and pretty much any data they need. US will never allow Intel to die.

Snapdragon X just will end up in another ARM Chromebook fail, Google failed, now is Microsoft turn...(mostly because of price/performance, we are not Apple people) they totally cannot read the market and consumer needs lately... NPUs, AYE EEYES... bloody no average consumer needs them... another try into turning us into product it is...
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#90
R0H1T
I don't see QC's X failing but depending on how they price it it'd simply be a niche like Apple ~ yes Apple is in fact a niche in the much bigger PC market! Windows itself is such a massive "walled garden" that it inherently allows MS to push through a lot of products without competition, like I said about many softwares having no equivalent alternatives on Mac or Linux.
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#91
Ferrum Master
R0H1TI don't see QC's X failing but depending on how they price it it could simply be a niche like Apple ~ yes Apple is in fact a niche in the much bigger PC market!
Yeah... but I considered the grand ambitions they want, thus mark it as fail all the money they will pour in into spinning the PR wave, and will look very promising, but after the hype will settle down, I don't think we will see them in shops, the real benchmark of it all, MIA... yes, they are totally usable in specific fields... and are niche product... ie not for masses.
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#92
remixedcat
Ferrum MasterSnapdragon X just will end up in another ARM Chromebook fai
Dell is including it on latitudes and I think Lenovo on thinkpads and those are biz grade
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#93
Tek-Check
phanbueySo dell is getting its lunch eaten by apple - their move to qualcomm was to combat the M chips -- the difference between Intel and AMD chips in laptops vs ARM is actually pretty slim -- AMD is better but not by that much, and it's nowhere near M3-M4 levels of performance. X86 is slow and hot as hell - my 7845hx below in an Asus G17 (big boi)...

Intel / AMD can't touch ARM or the Apple M's ARM based design in performance/watt.
Yes and no. You presented a different segment of laptop here, with discrete GPU. ARM laptops are by default provided with iGPU only, which has its limitations. The best X Elite laptop is barely able to run a game in 1080p/30, such as Baldur's Gate. So, tehre are trade-offs, dependent on case use.
7845HX is for gaming and productivity systems. 7840U/8840U are way more efficient.

It is true thaty ARM brings more challenges for x86 on laptops in terms of perf/watt, but both AMD and Intel are developing the performance and efficiency of their small cores like never before. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.
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#94
Assimilator
kondaminIt is going to push arm out of a lot of appliances like washing machines, alarm systems, routers etc where only a fraction of isa extensions are needed for them to run properly.
We aren't talking about appliances. Do try to keep up.
DavenAssimilator, Intel is going away as the dominant anything in the coming years. You cannot refute what people say just because it's not Intel. Sure, it may not be RISC-V as such things are hard to predict. But what's not hard to predict is the downfall of Intel. They will not be gone but will become a small player in however the industry shakes out in the coming years. Again, don't refute what I'm saying just because I say it will not be Intel. That's not evidence enough. Not anymore. Intel made too many mistakes and the past is no longer relevant in today's environment. Intel cannot come back and other technologies (some present, some yet to be revealed) are now leading the way.
Typical child, moving the goalposts as soon as they're called out on their BS.
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#95
maximumterror
Dr. DroI specifically meant the Opteron ARM chips, not the Opteron (now EPYC) server processor line in itself. Did you ask ChatGPT that? LOL

That reminds me, most Optys are hella cheap these days. Not sure about the motherboards though, but makes for a super fun quad-socket build.
yea sure ChatGPT... around year 2011 i 've read about it
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#96
Vayra86
DavenExactly. Here is the best CPU market share prediction across all segments after the next 5-6 years:

Intel 11%
AMD 11%
Apple 11%
Qualcomm 11%
Mediatek 11%
Nvidia 11%
Other ARM 11%
Other RISC-V 11%
Unknown future tech 11%
Pie 1%

Error +/- 11%

For a company that use to have >90% market share across all segments, this is extremely, extremely bad for Intel even under increases in TAM (total addressable market).
So you're saying everyone is going to eleven, gotcha.
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#97
ikjadoon
londisteThat is also an interesting point in the source article.
That would be mind-blowing. Electronics Weekly doesn't seem to have any specific source for that claim.

Counterpoint, publicly, shared that of all notebook PCs (Win, Mac, Linux), Arm had ~12.8% market share in 2022 and by in 2019 (which would be mostly WoA), it looks like ~1%. Did WoA 10x in 5 years, assuming notebooks are representative and then implying Apple Silicon laptops flopped & made virtually no sales? Virtually impossible.



I think it must be a typo. They meant to write "all notebooks", but somehow wrote "all Windows PCs". And that 12.8% in 2022 is virtually guaranteed to be almost entirely Apple.
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#98
SL2
When will Snapdragon X reviews go live?
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#99
Darmok N Jalad
Something I hadn’t heard, but it might have an impact here too. Apparently Arm has an ongoing legal battle against Qualcomm for licensing fees on Snapdragon X. Qualcomm bought Nuvia, and is using Nuvia’s design with SDX, so Arm believes they owe the licensing fees that Nuvia had. Qualcomm thinks their existing licenses cover it. Sounds like it could go either way, though really it’s just about money. IF SDX is an actual success, I suspect this issue might get louder.
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#100
ikjadoon
SL2When will Snapdragon X reviews go live?
June 18th, judging by laptop release dates.
Darmok N JaladSomething I hadn’t heard, but it might have an impact here too. Apparently Arm has an ongoing legal battle against Qualcomm for licensing fees on Snapdragon X. Qualcomm bought Nuvia, and is using Nuvia’s design with SDX, so Arm believes they owe the licensing fees that Nuvia had. Qualcomm thinks their existing licenses cover it. Sounds like it could go either way, though really it’s just about money. IF SDX is an actual success, I suspect this issue might get louder.
This is a weird situation. Reuters shared that, apparently, Arm v Qualcomm litigation was a "hot topic" at Computex

www.reuters.com/technology/arm-qualcomm-legal-battle-seen-disrupting-ai-powered-pc-wave-2024-06-10/
But the main conversation among conference attendees was over how a contract dispute between Arm Holdings and Qualcomm, which work together to make the chips powering these new laptops, could abruptly halt the shipment of new PCs that industry leaders expect will make Microsoft and its partners billions of dollars.
Windows OEMs don't seem that worried, and neither do Arm nor Qualcomm: just the attendees? So maybe everyone is expecting a settlement that won't halt sales.
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