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This very leak (or whatever it is) says Vega 10 is between GP104 and GP102, placing a hard limit on the upper limit.
Not exactly. 12TFLOPS single precision doesn't tell you everything you need to know about the GPU's performance.
For example, it doesn't take into account, at all, the impact of memory bandwidth. It doesn't take into account things such as primitive discard, improved scheduling, and so on... It's just an accumulation of the processing power in the shaders.
12 TFLOPs tells us only two two things that are likely: GCN4 SPs are still likely in use. 1.266GHz is the target clock-speed:
+15% - GCN SPs vs Fiji SPs
+20% - Higher clock speed than Fury X (1.26GHz vs 1.05GHz)
That takes Fury X's 8.6T to right about 12T. A few minor improvements (and some rounding in the rumor) will cover the minor gap.
Given how constrained performance on Polaris 10 is by memory bandwidth, we should expect an additional gain in FPS from that - 15% is fair game (you can nearly get that just by overclocking RX 480's memory... gains are effectively linear). Vega includes the new primitive discard and other benefits seen in Polaris 10 as well, so this will push effective performance compared to Fury X even more.
If you add 60% more performance to Fury X, where do you land? Bingo. Still, from 40% to 60% over Fury X is a pretty broad range - and only the top of this will catch up to the top Pascal GPU.