Bitcoin price suddenly surges to 3-year high

[Hemmingstamp]

I have no problem with that, or with people mining the coins. But don't you think, there are also the really rich people, either hedge fund or investors, that are also manipulating the market somewhat to their gains, and hurting smaller "investors" that have a case of FOMO? It is just when people put real money into betting that it will continue to go up, and risk losing significant money, that is when I feel bad for people for falling for it.

I already know this is the case. It's all a gamble. Take WSB as an example, the cat is out the bag on the way the system is manipulated for their gain.
If you have everything to lose simply don't play the game. That apples to all betting scenario's, from black jack to rolling dice in an alley.

Saw this last night. Pretty neat setup actually. I don't have a problem buying a used card from him in 3 months for half the price

https://www.reddit.com/r/EtherMining/comments/nfppnv

Not if I put in a good offer first.

 

[LFaWolf]

I don't think I did. Like I said the entire system is based on speculation. I already know this but though i'd give my 2 cents.

I quoted and my comment was directed at the other post. You did misread it this time.

 

[Hemmingstamp]

I quoted and my comment was directed at the other post. You did misread it this time.

Edited: You're correct. I did misread it this time.

 

[Nike_486DX]

Time to burn some 6900 XT's then

 

[Hemmingstamp]

Time to burn some 6900 XT's then

I went for the retail store scalpers price, had second thoughts, and got a refund before it was delivered. Fugg em.

 

[trog100]

well bitcoin is at 31K and eth at 1700... eth is tanking quite badly.. more so than bitcoin..

an awful lot of money is being lost.. i am curious to see what the US stock markets do tomorrow..

trog

 

[Hemmingstamp]

well bitcoin is at 31K and eth at 1700... eth is tanking quite badly.. more so than bitcoin..

an awful lot of money is being lost.. i am curious to see what the US stock markets do tomorrow..

trog

Tank miners some more?

 

[ZenZimZaliben]

What a crazy month! Entire market is down 50% from ATH. I'm holding for now but ready to buy more once everyone stops panic selling. Eth just went under 1800. Crazy. The odd thing is 70% of transacitons are buying.

Monday is going to be a bad day on the stock market.

 

[sepheronx]

Trog, what did you do?

 

[dragontamer5788]

an awful lot of money is being lost.. i am curious to see what the US stock markets do tomorrow..

With inflation risks rising, value stocks will do fine, while growth stocks will decline.

Companies who need "investments" to continue forward (any growth stock with low revenues / profits) are going to suck in an inflationary environment. In contrast, anyone who owns say... lumber mills and/or gasoline refineries (simple and/or advanced means of production), will get more money and profits.

"Flight to safety", and all that. Bonds suck in inflation though, but... even then... we're seeing bond yields decline. So people are fearful right now.

 

[LFaWolf]

With inflation risks rising, value stocks will do fine, while growth stocks will decline.

Companies who need "investments" to continue forward (any growth stock with low revenues / profits) are going to suck in an inflationary environment. In contrast, anyone who owns say... lumber mills and/or gasoline refineries (simple and/or advanced means of production), will get more money and profits.

"Flight to safety", and all that. Bonds suck in inflation though, but... even then... we're seeing bond yields decline. So people are fearful right now.

Which will make it a good time to buy growth stock, although I am going to wait a bit because I don’t think it has reached the bottom yet.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Which will make it a good time to buy growth stock, although I am going to wait a bit because I don’t think it has reached the bottom yet.

Growth stocks are trying to raise money right now.

Ex: Tesla needs money to buy new factories in Germany. Or Tesla will have to raise money to build Cybertrucks and compete with Ford. That means they have to spend today's high-cost money now, to sell cars of the future (which will be innately discounted because of expected inflation).

Selling a Cybertruck in 2024, AFTER inflation wipes away 5% to 10% of its value is pretty bad, especially when they had to raise $5 Billion in 2021 money to build the factory.

$5 Billion in 2021 money after 10% inflation is going to be equivalent to $5.5 Billion in 2024 money (assuming ~3% inflation in 2021, 2022, and 2023). If you think we get more than 3% inflation each year, then adjust this math accordingly (We see that spending $5 Billion today will be equivalent to maybe $6 billion or even 6.5 billion in a few short years if inflation goes higher than expected) . Higher rates of inflation innately hurt growth companies. That's why people are fleeing them. Spending today's money in hopes of making money in the future (especially when "today's money" will come from either selling shares (depressing the price), or selling bonds (putting TSLA on the hook on a loan)).


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In contrast, a value-company like Ford already has the money to build the factory without need of raising money. In fact, Ford already has many factories, workers, and equipment that they can (relatively cheaply) reconfigure into making the F150 lightning. Ford won't need a loan or secondary offering to reconfigure its factories (or even build new ones), because Ford has an already established cash flow.

Ford is also going to be selling 800,000+ F150 ICE vehicles this year, and maybe a few million other vehicles. Earning money this year with high revenues / high profits is worth far, far more than promises of earning money 3 or 4 years from now (when inflation will eat away the money). In times of inflation, you want to earn money before the inflation eats away the money.

---------

Inflation, and Bond Yields, are a headwind against growth. Its easy for growth strategies to work in times of low inflation (see the entire decade of 2010 to 2019). But with inflation fears beginning to kick in, the rules of the market are going to change.

 

[ZenZimZaliben]

3% inflation is the normal rate. We are way, way beyond normal.

 

[lexluthermiester]

well bitcoin is at 31K and eth at 1700... eth is tanking quite badly.. more so than bitcoin..

an awful lot of money is being lost.. i am curious to see what the US stock markets do tomorrow..

trog

Very unlikely to do anything. This idea that cryptocoin is somehow linked to the financial markets of the world is nonsense. It is not and should not be.

 

[RandallFlagg]

well bitcoin is at 31K and eth at 1700... eth is tanking quite badly.. more so than bitcoin..

an awful lot of money is being lost.. i am curious to see what the US stock markets do tomorrow..

trog

I believe that Bitcoin and Crypto in general is an indicator of investors tolerance for risk, hence reflects risk aversion in other markets.

That tolerance has gone down a lot.

 

[lexluthermiester]

That tolerance has gone down a lot.

True!

 

[Vya Domus]

This idea that cryptocoin is somehow linked to the financial markets of the world is nonsense. It is not and should not be.

Linked to "financial markets of the world" is too grand but there is definitely some correlation.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Linked to "financial markets of the world" is too grand but there is definitely some correlation.

Not sure there is merit to that. Very minor influence is the best we could likely state with any validity.

 

[Vya Domus]

Not sure there is merit to that. Very minor influence is the best we could likely state with any validity.

Let me put it this way, we all know that there are few with a lot of money trading crypto, the ledgers attest to that. Do you think those people are only invested in crypto if they have so much capital on their hands ? Of course not, they likely have their hands in all sorts of markets hence their moves will be closely correlated across these segments.

 

[trog100]

it was said that the big players were buying bitcoin as a long term store of value.. buying to hold and not to trade..

if this is so and i believed it to be so.. what the f-ck is going on.. none of the fundamentals have changed..

i can imagine the newbs being panicked into selling but not the whales.. do they know something the rest of us dont.. maybe they do..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

i can imagine the newbs being panicked into selling but not the whales.. do they know something the rest of us dont.. maybe they do..

It's not the noobs. It's everyone seeing the writing on the wall. Governments the world over are cracking down in unison. Cryptocoin is going to change, it has no choice. It is now effectively banned in the worlds largest economy, it's about to be heavily regulated in the worlds richest economy and the rest of the worlds governments are following suit. Profitability is going to tank as a result. It is unavoidable.

 

[LFaWolf]

Growth stocks are trying to raise money right now.

Ex: Tesla needs money to buy new factories in Germany. Or Tesla will have to raise money to build Cybertrucks and compete with Ford. That means they have to spend today's high-cost money now, to sell cars of the future (which will be innately discounted because of expected inflation).

Selling a Cybertruck in 2024, AFTER inflation wipes away 5% to 10% of its value is pretty bad, especially when they had to raise $5 Billion in 2021 money to build the factory.

$5 Billion in 2021 money after 10% inflation is going to be equivalent to $5.5 Billion in 2024 money (assuming ~3% inflation in 2021, 2022, and 2023). If you think we get more than 3% inflation each year, then adjust this math accordingly (We see that spending $5 Billion today will be equivalent to maybe $6 billion or even 6.5 billion in a few short years if inflation goes higher than expected) . Higher rates of inflation innately hurt growth companies. That's why people are fleeing them. Spending today's money in hopes of making money in the future (especially when "today's money" will come from either selling shares (depressing the price), or selling bonds (putting TSLA on the hook on a loan)).


----------

In contrast, a value-company like Ford already has the money to build the factory without need of raising money. In fact, Ford already has many factories, workers, and equipment that they can (relatively cheaply) reconfigure into making the F150 lightning. Ford won't need a loan or secondary offering to reconfigure its factories (or even build new ones), because Ford has an already established cash flow.

Ford is also going to be selling 800,000+ F150 ICE vehicles this year, and maybe a few million other vehicles. Earning money this year with high revenues / high profits is worth far, far more than promises of earning money 3 or 4 years from now (when inflation will eat away the money). In times of inflation, you want to earn money before the inflation eats away the money.

---------

Inflation, and Bond Yields, are a headwind against growth. Its easy for growth strategies to work in times of low inflation (see the entire decade of 2010 to 2019). But with inflation fears beginning to kick in, the rules of the market are going to change.

Your sentiment and calculation is what I hope other investors will follow - sell their tech growth stock to push the prices down some more and buy up Ford. Sure, for the next 3 years F may give you 10, at most 20% return, but they won't give you multiples. I buy growth stocks for the very long term, think 10 years long. I also think the inflation fear is overblown, but that is my opinion.

I also doubt F can sell that many trucks, given the chip shortage. I don't know much about F, but isn't its manufacturing and technology vastly behind Tesla? I heard GM and F have been making promises to go electric but it has been several years and nothing other than the Volt or Bolt is out, and the range is still terrible.

 

[Shrek]

When you invest in a company the value goes up as the company is making something

Where is value being made in crypto-currency?

 

[Jetster]

When you invest in a company the value goes up as the company is making something

Where is value being made in crypto-currency?

Crypto has a value as a unit of exchange and it has held its value over time. Where is the value in the dollar?

 

[R-T-B]

Where is value being made in crypto-currency

An international payment network is value.

People fail to grasp this.

Crypto has a value as a unit of exchange and it has held its value over time. Where is the value in the dollar?

The United States economy backs the value of the dollar.

It's really completely different.