When will gpu prices return to normal.

[xpg9]

I bit the bullet and paid about 100 dollars more for what I thought was a used rx6800xt xfx merc 319 turned up as a sealed box worth it

 

[Lei]

AMD is shipping RX6600xt on August 11 and nVidia's answer will be to replenish 3060 stock. Intel Xe-HPG graphics cards coming this year.

Don't know if this helps but I was tracking 14 terabyte western digital hard drives, they dropped from 395$ to 275$ on July 23rd. Perhaps Chia mining also got banned.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Some of the news implies there may be an oversupply of chips come Q4. Expected softening of demand from TI, also aligning with decreasing current delivery and orders for new computers. I suspect PC / Server demand got front-loaded into 2H 2020-1H 2021 and will experience a big dip in the coming months, CCP and EU playing whack a mole with miners helps too.

 

[GerKNG]

MSRP Prices? never. they are PR.

10-20% above MSRP? if you lucky you can get them all the time for these prices. if not you pay an extra 50-100 bucks. but that's still better than pay 2 grand for a 3070 like in april...

 

[eidairaman1]

300 for a low end gpu is stupid

 

[Fangio1951]

Wait - let me check my crystal ball...........it says around 2025

 

[Lei]

Yesterday my 670 died, just one day after I experienced Forza 4. I think the reason is the thick thermal pads I used on its back.

Today I paid for a 1060 6gb. It costed me 3080's real price minus 3080 msrp minus 1060 watercooling block

I'm not a devoted gamer, so I was dubious between 3080 and A4000. This 1060 will give me a chance to investigate my vram appetite
Fun fact : my pc can not sleep without a display driver!

 

[Ripcord]

When Intel enters the market

 

[Deleted member 24505]

I got a secondhand MSI 980ti for £190 which i was pretty chuffed about. Haven't even bothered trying to get anything 2xxx or 3xxx

 

[cvaldes]

When Intel enters the market

Nope.

First of all, Intel manufactures their own chips. Nvidia and AMD on the other hand contract out their manufacturing to Samsung and TSMC. Intel is not competing for that limited foundry capacity. Note that Samsung and TSMC also produce chips for other chip designers like Apple, Qualcomm, etc. Moreover Samsung produces their own Samsung branded chips on their own production lines.

Everyone is competing for tight supplies of materials like substrate.

And capacity issues won't be solved quickly. Starting a new fab takes over a billion dollars of capital investment and 2+ years to bring online.

It's worth pointing out that the CEOs of Intel, Nvidia, and AMD have all explicitly mentioned ongoing supply issues through 2022. I figure they probably have a good idea of the market forces.

 

[Deleted member 24505]

Nope.

First of all, Intel manufactures their own chips. Nvidia and AMD on the other hand contract out their manufacturing to Samsung and TSMC. Intel is not competing for that limited foundry capacity. Note that Samsung and TSMC also produce chips for other chip designers like Apple, Qualcomm, etc.

However, all three are competing for tight supplies of materials like substrate.

And capacity issues won't be solved quickly. Starting a new fab takes over a billion dollars of capital investment and 2+ years to bring online.

Well they certainly have the $$ but they can't do nothing about time or substrate supplies.

 

[cvaldes]

A lot of the capacity for the next 6-12 months is already booked. Companies like Apple make massive prepayments to guarantee capacity and material. It's up to the foundries to juggle their various customers' desires.

Money doesn't matter as much when there's limited availability. Look at the PC graphics card market. Most of the production is being allocated to OEMs and major system builders. Some of the material and capacity is also going to the new generation videogame consoles. That X amount of substrate going into a Xbox Series X/S or PS5 isn't going into a consumer graphics card.

It has been well covered by the tech media that the big chip companies are honoring their OEM/enterprise commitments at the expense of the DIY market. They are also favoring high-margin high-end chips for the DIY market which makes financial sense.

If you want a PC graphics card at a reasonable price right now, you pretty much have to buy a pre-built system. This doesn't just mean the HPs and Dells of the world. There are bricks-and-mortar mom-and-pop stores that actually have good GPUs in stock but they will require you to purchase 3-4 other components (CPU, PSU, memory, drive, etc.) to be able to walk away with a graphics card.

If you don't want to do that, you have to be patient.

My own guess is that standalone GPUs won't reach MSRP until mid-2023.

 

[oxrufiioxo]

Depends on what is considered normal..... If the pandemic has taught me anything gamers have much deeper pockets than I originally thought and Nvidia/Amd know this. I personally wouldn't be surprised if the high end gets bumped to 2000 usd for fhe 80 ti/90 tier and the 80 tier gets bumped to 1000 usd with mid range starting at 5-600 usd.

I'm betting both AMD and Nvidia are kicking themselves for releasing the 6800XT and the 3080 for their 650-699 usd msrps when they would have all sold out instantly at 50-80% higher msrps.

I also have a feeling that gamers with a budget between 200-300 usd will have to source decent gpus from the used market.

 

[cvaldes]

I also have a feeling that gamers with a budget between 200-300 usd will have to source decent gpus from the used market.

The used GPU market is still a Greek tragedy.

I bought a Sapphire Pulse Radeon RX 580 8GB card for $180 a year ago (the RX 580's April 2017 launch price was $230). Theoretically, this card with four-year old architecture really shouldn't be more than $150 brand new today since it's two generations old.

A new RX 580 on Amazon is $800 right now, almost 4.5x what I paid a year ago. Even used cards in good shape are going for $500-$550, basically 3x last year's retail price (for a new card).

I also picked up an RX 550 2GB card last year for $65 (launch price $80). Again, that card -- if it can even be found -- is nearly $300 street price, 4.6x what I paid. I also bought a GeForce 2070 SUPER FE at the full $500 MSRP a year ago. This card easily commands 4x (over $2000) street price right now.

The used GPU market isn't a realistic option for someone with a tight budget. They are better off buying an Xbox Series X/S or PS5 if they are just trying to game.

The only two reasonable options are A.) buy pre-built system or B.) wait.

For Americans it's worth entering the Newegg Shuffle. I got my 3080 that way. I'd never pay a dime to a scalper.

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
Did anyone pick never lol
Welcome to the new normal.

 

[oxrufiioxo]

The used GPU market is still a Greek tragedy.

Talking about more whenever prices plateau.... I sold a Titan Xp for 880 usd still shaking my head on that one. The two most recent times the gpu market has been like this I've benefit though.

2020/21 has been much worse in my opinion than 2017/18.... Sold 2 1080s during the last mining craze for more than what I paid for them.

 

[mb194dc]

Seems like GPUs are in stock now looking at UK online retailers. With very high prices though.

Prices going down will depend on the economic situation as furlough ends and things try go back to normal.

No incentive yet for retailers to try compete with each other.

6 to 12 months ?

 

[ixi]

When Intel enters the market

Doubt that intel will change anything in price. They gonna price them high. Why lose money?

 

[cvaldes]

Talking about more whenever prices plateau.... I sold a Titan Xp for 880 usd still shaking my head on that one. The two most recent times the gpu market has been like this I've benefit though.

2020/21 has been much worse in my opinion than 2017/18.... Sold 2 1080s during the last mining craze for more than what I paid for them.

The only people who are benefitting from the current market are scalpers and the few who exclusively sell right now.

If you sell a card at a great profit but end up replacing it with a card that you have to shell out extra for, you are still coming out behind. My guess is that some of the prebuilt systems are being disassembled and resold as components. Even most of the components are sold at a fraction of the price, the GPU upcharge will cover those shortcomings.

One thing for sure: substrate/materials scarcity won't be solved in six months and extra capacity isn't coming for years.

Each batch of the unreleased Nintendo Switch OLED is selling out quickly and this is not new silicon on the latest process node. Likewise the automobile industry is idling some factories because they can't get enough chips (which are also on older process nodes).

This goes FAR beyond the DIY GPU market.

 

[oxrufiioxo]

The only people who are benefitting from the current market are scalpers and the few who exclusively sell right now.

If you sell a card at a great profit but end up replacing it with a card that you have to shell out extra for, you are still coming out behind. My guess is that some of the prebuilt systems are being disassembled and resold as components. Even most of the components are sold at a fraction of the price, the GPU upcharge will cover those shortcomings.

Fair enough, but 620 usd out of pocket for a 3080 ti is much better than it's 1500 usd with tax asking price.

Had the market been more normal I would have gotten an 1800 plus tax 3090 and my Titan XP would have sold for 50% less so for me personally the current situation is better.

So no I didn't come out behind depending on how you look at it.... Same with the previous gpu shortageI turned 2 1080s into a Titan Xp and pocketed 300 usd wanted to get away from sli so it worked out perfectly.


I do feel bad for those people who sold their 2080 ti prior to the 3080 launch for 500 usd though bet they are kicking themselves. Was tempted to pick up a couple.

 

[cvaldes]

If there was no price gouging, you'd get little for your Titan XP since anyone could buy a 3080 for $800-900 or a 3090 for $1500-1700 MSRP. The 3060 is realistically a $250 card tops.

It's supply and demand in a free market economy. Real estate is the same. If I sell my house (in a premium market like the SF Bay Area), I'll make a lot of money but if I want to buy in the same market, I have to pay more.

The only way to get ahead is to sell any old GPUs you have and change markets: the new generation videogame console specifically if your intention is gaming.

If I sold my RX 580 for $500, there's no way I could get improved graphics power at that price. Except by buying a new-gen console.

I bought my 3080 via Newegg Shuffle at $1070 list, a price that was already inflated by Asus. Normally something like an ASUS TUF Gaming variant should be about $50 over the Founders Edition card. And that's how it was originally priced. I basically paid $200 extra for a card that should nominally be about $850-870. I didn't come out ahead. The only way I could break even would have been to find the unicorn, the 3080 FE at Best Buy for $799. Trust me, I tried and I failed to score one.

Basically every single Ampere GPU that isn't a Founders Edition card being sold at Nvidia's MSRP is coming at a premium, whether it be the AIB partner, the retailer, or worse via a scalper.

It's not "how you look at it" [sic]. Nobody buying right now is coming out ahead. Period.

THIS IS A SELLERS MARKET RIGHT NOW. The only way for a buyer to come out ahead is to wait for a buyers market. This is not unique to the PC graphics card market. That's how a free market works.

There are always market forces that buyers and sellers can't control. Capacity and material availability are two major contributing factors right now for the PC graphics card business.

 

[64K]

The prices have been whack-a-doodle for a while now. I just checked Ebay and the sold prices for my MSI 2070 Super are around $600 for used. That's $100 more than I paid for it new.

When will prices return to normal?

When the parasite scalpers are gone and the miners stop hoarding GPUs. Who knows when that will be.

 

[Lei]

Just for the record, the 1060 I paid for today, was 50$ more last week, mid May it was 130$ more expensive than today.
And mid February it was same price as it is today. before Dec 23 it was 70$ cheaper than today at its minimum as far as the javascript bot keeps tracks of.

I do have the money to buy 3080 street price right now, but I think I can wait with 1060 until 3080 drops as much as I paid for 1060
My monitor max resolution is 1080, which means I can play Forza 4 at ultra preset with this card
Also, I rather not brick a 3080 by misusing thermal pads, a 1060 is more experiment friendly

hmm, may be next week a 1070 will be sold at today's 1060 price

 

[oxrufiioxo]

Basically every single Ampere GPU that isn't a Founders Edition card being sold at Nvidia's MSRP is coming at a premium, whether it be the AIB partner, the retailer, or worse via a scalper.

Yeah, I don't mind a 200 usd markup over the 3080 ti FE though it's pretty terrible. The only FE model I would consider is the 3090 regardless.
This isn't any different than when I picked up a 2080 ti though FE was 1200 my model the Stix OC about 200 usd more.

3080 aib at launch weren't that bad though I could get a couple different models for 7-800 usd but that 10GB vram was a turn off although the 12GB on my card is barely adequate imo.
Sorta kicking myself for not picked up a Tuf for 749 usd when I had the chance though....

Things are obviously whacko now lol.

 

[Lei]

I ended up buying 1070 after my 670 died. Here's how prices changed in the same shop. I got mine on August 2, just before prices started to rise again.

Since I got mine at 1949, it went upto 2599 (+33%) and now is 2099 (+7%)
Luckily I found a 1080Ti waterblock for it and with minor sanding, it idles at 27° and barely reaches 55° under load