Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[RandallFlagg]

Yes, fact.

"Credit default swaps came into existence in 1994 when they were invented by Blythe Masters from JP Morgan. They became popular in the early 2000s, and by 2007, the outstanding credit default swaps value stood at $62.2 trillion. During the financial crisis of 2008, the value of CDS was hit hard, and it dropped to $26.3 trillion by 2010 and $25.5 trillion in 2012. There was no legal framework to regulate swaps, and the lack of transparency in the market became a concern among regulators."

This makes about as much sense as saying that the Goodyear Eagle GT was 'invented' in 1981. It's just another tire and that is just another derivative, as your link stated. You can "invent" derivatives of the median shoelace string size if you want. There's nothing 'inventive' about that, it's not a new instrument, it's just being applied to something else.

And more to the point, any derivative if used as an investment tool is high risk. These guys are basically saying, I've got a 5% chance of losing everything, a 5% chance of making nothing, and a 90% chance of making 20% per year. I'm gonna do this for a year or two and make a name for myself. Then they get an unexpected event and lose everything - that being, all of someone else's money.

I'd say 100% of bitcoin investors like those odds. Which gets us back to it is not the instrument, it is the investor mentality that causes these crashes.

To that point, we just had a small hedge fund implode and it had nothing to do with the credit default swaps you mention. They used a different 'invention' (derivative) called a total return equity swap. These swaps are very similar to call options except that the payment is recurring and there is no expiration date. You get the benefit of price going up and you don't have to buy the stock, you even get the dividends, but you have to keep paying a fee. Works great, just like the scenario I outlined above. Except, then the stock goes down. And then you get a margin call.

It's this lack of fear that causes these things to happen.

 

[Vya Domus]

Not really though, because if you invest in crypto and enter into that realm, you play by a different set of rules.

The rules are the same, the magnitude of win/loss is different.

 

[moproblems99]

The rules are the same, the magnitude of win/loss is different.

I would argue the rules are not the same. If the rules were the same, Elon would be in deep, deep shit.

This makes about as much sense as saying that the Goodyear Eagle GT was 'invented' in 1981. It's just another tire and that is just another derivative,

But what happens if you ask someone in 1975 about a Goodyear Eagle GT? They won't know what it is - until you say:. It's a tire!

 

[Vya Domus]

If the rules were the same, Elon would be in deep, deep shit.

He should have been in deep shit for a quite some time now but he's not. So with that in mind, the rules look the same to me.

 

[moproblems99]

He should have been in deep shit for a quite some time now but he's not. So with that in mind, the rules look the same to me.

Fair enough.

 

[LFaWolf]

He should have been in deep shit for a quite some time now but he's not. So with that in mind, the rules look the same to me.

Not really. He tweeted about Tesla and SEC was not okay with it. Tesla and Elon settled with the SEC for $40 millions.
Tweeted about Bitcoin and Dogecoin to manipulate the prices. SEC did not care.

Anyway, we are really getting off topic here. This thread is to discuss cryptocoin values. Debate about crypto should go here - https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/general-cryptocoin-discussion.283231/

 

[Rithsom]

Bitcoin has just fallen slightly to $30,700. Its value is starting to step out of the narrow $31,000-$35,000 range that it has been in for the past month. I wonder if a much bigger drop is about to happen.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Bitcoin has just fallen slightly to $30,700. Its value is starting to step out of the narrow $31,000-$35,000 range that it has been in for the past month. I wonder if a much bigger drop is about to happen.

It is. All of the markets have been diverging internally for a couple of weeks, a classic sort of divergence. i.e. - the # of declining stocks was higher than the number of rising stocks as the indexes hit new highs. Narrow index-only stocks going up is a very bad sign. Bitcoin will go down with the rest of them.

GalleryView Charts | StockCharts.com

View advanced price charts for a ticker symbol in multiple timeframes together on one page to allow for simultaneous short-, mid-, and long-term analysis.

stockcharts.com

 

[Metroid]

That 40 to 64k looks unreal.

View attachment 205616

The crypto market is unreal, it rises 50 times and then crashes 50 times hehe

 

[RandallFlagg]

Looks like the last time the adv/decline on 1hr chart was this low was Sept of 2020. This is a very broad based decline. It didn't really just start today either, the majority of stocks by a wide margin have been declining for 4 trading days despite the indexes making new highs.

Clearly a major unwinding is going to affect BTC too, but I will say I'm surprised it hasn't (yet) been more affected.

 

[Liquid Cool]

"If a man does not keep pace with his companions...perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away."

Thoreau is good for men...or markets. Until BTC takes out the June low(on volume), this is just a pullback(and possible retest) of the June 21 low. How exciting?

Does it look like it's going to cave? You betcha.

Is it? The formation looks ominous, but that is no guarantee. If I was in the markets my position would not change...until forced to do so. Which is...the same thing I said initially. A tight stop under the prior low, which is just under 30k. Let them force you out and if you've calculated incorrectly, then they'll force you out and rally it like no tomorrow. Although, if volume comes in at the break, it must be respected.

BTC is plumbing lows, meanwhile the broad markets have been plumbing highs?

I have to tell you...I was prepared to receive a lecture when the DJI took out the 5.10 high. Oh so close.....

Since this is a tech site...let's do a "tech tidbit" and talk the Nasdaq. I can remember the high in 2020 for the Nasdaq, it was exactly one week later from the Dow Jones Industrials on February 19th. The ensuing decline was only 33 days long, while the DJI declined for 40 days. Since the bottom of all the broad markets on March 23rd of 2020...The Nasdaq has essentially been rallying ever since.

Although, the recent high on July 13th(as RF correctly points out) shows evidence of a roll. Perhaps July 13th is THE high for Nasdaq? You know what I think already...this was the retest of the 5.10 high(and failure) on the DJI.

The "tech tidbit" is this...In the Nasdaq...from the February 19th peak in 2020 to the current peak here in 2021 is how many days?

I'll save you the trouble...



Again...How exciting?

Wake up....

Best Regards,

Liquid Cool

 

[RandallFlagg]

Ahh someone made you remove the clue.

Most people require a reason these days, a cause, and thus are not capable of merely applying an observed pattern that has no apparent cause. It's antithetical to the modern concept of chaos, as order cannot come from chaos. And yet, it does.

 

[Hardcore Games]

BTC and ETH are both fallen more than 50% from their recent highs and there is still a lot of room to fall

 

[RandallFlagg]

BTC, falling through yet another trend channel, very near making a new low for the year :

 

[moproblems99]

Don't worry, its just transitory!













Said no one who meant it.

 

[Outback Bronze]

Looks like a nice pump from possibly the Amazon crypto news or either alot of selling has been going on and no buying.

Anybody like to chime in? Been quiet here as of late.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Anybody like to chime in? Been quiet here as of late.

There's not alot going on.. Cryptocoin is doing it's fluctuation thing. All is quiet in the western front yard.
(name that movie)

 

[RandallFlagg]

"If a man does not keep pace with his companions...perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away."

Thoreau is good for men...or markets. Until BTC takes out the June low(on volume), this is just a pullback(and possible retest) of the June 21 low. How exciting?

Does it look like it's going to cave? You betcha.

Is it? The formation looks ominous, but that is no guarantee. If I was in the markets my position would not change...until forced to do so. Which is...the same thing I said initially. A tight stop under the prior low, which is just under 30k. Let them force you out and if you've calculated incorrectly, then they'll force you out and rally it like no tomorrow. Although, if volume comes in at the break, it must be respected.

BTC is plumbing lows, meanwhile the broad markets have been plumbing highs?

I have to tell you...I was prepared to receive a lecture when the DJI took out the 5.10 high. Oh so close.....

Since this is a tech site...let's do a "tech tidbit" and talk the Nasdaq. I can remember the high in 2020 for the Nasdaq, it was exactly one week later from the Dow Jones Industrials on February 19th. The ensuing decline was only 33 days long, while the DJI declined for 40 days. Since the bottom of all the broad markets on March 23rd of 2020...The Nasdaq has essentially been rallying ever since.

Although, the recent high on July 13th(as RF correctly points out) shows evidence of a roll. Perhaps July 13th is THE high for Nasdaq? You know what I think already...this was the retest of the 5.10 high(and failure) on the DJI.

The "tech tidbit" is this...In the Nasdaq...from the February 19th peak in 2020 to the current peak here in 2021 is how many days?

I'll save you the trouble...

View attachment 208804

Again...How exciting?

Wake up....

Best Regards,

Liquid Cool

I'm hearing that tomorrow has the potential to be a Fibonacci time analysis turning point on the S&P.

And this divergence, showing more equities have been losing than winning despite new highs on the indexes, continues. We haven't seen a divergence like this since late 2007 into 2008. Basically, the indexes have been going up but the majority of stocks have lost value since early Feb, i.e. breadth is narrowing.

For comparison :

 

[trog100]

well i have been away for a couple of weeks.. during this time bitcoin has moved from around 30 K and looking like going lower to around 42 K and looking like going higher..

the whales have been buying and accumulating i assume they know what they are doing.. i think the crypto doldrums are over.. new all time highs will soon be reached..

trog

 

[trog100]

bitcoin took a little dip over the last week but its back up near 42K... eth has gone up 20% over the last week and is now at 2800 and looks like going higher..

this thread has gone quiet because its loaded with crypto naysayers and just lately they dont have much to say..

 

[Space Lynx]

bitcoin took a little dip over the last week but its back up near 42K... eth has gone up 20% over the last week and is now at 2800 and looks like going higher..

this thread has gone quiet because its loaded with crypto naysayers and just lately they dont have much to say..

you won't be so cocky when climate change puts United Kingdom at negative 80 faren in a new ice age due to the Atlantic Ocean current no longer bringing warm water to Ireland/UK region year round.

mining is not the only source of the problem, but it exacerbated it.

Study warns of 'irreversible transition' in ocean currents that could rapidly freeze parts of North America

A large system of ocean currents in the Atlantic has been disrupted due to human-caused climate change, scientists reported in a new study.

www.usatoday.com

 

[trog100]

you won't be so cocky when climate change puts United Kingdom at negative 80 faren in a new ice age due to the Atlantic Ocean current no longer bringing warm water to Ireland/UK region year round.

mining is not the only source of the problem, but it exacerbated it.

Study warns of 'irreversible transition' in ocean currents that could rapidly freeze parts of North America

A large system of ocean currents in the Atlantic has been disrupted due to human-caused climate change, scientists reported in a new study.

www.usatoday.com

i do believe the planet is heading into an ice age lynx.. i doubt mankind and its activities have much to do with it though..

as for crypto it does seem to be starting a run.. bitcoin is up near 43K and eth near 2900.. off we go.. he he..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

this thread has gone quiet because its loaded with crypto naysayers and just lately they dont have much to say..

It would seem few care. This thread exists to give the subject a home and not pollute other threads with cryptocoin jibberjabber.

 

[Outback Bronze]

bitcoin took a little dip over the last week but its back up near 42K... eth has gone up 20% over the last week and is now at 2800 and looks like going higher..

this thread has gone quiet because its loaded with crypto naysayers and just lately they dont have much to say..

Looks like a decent gain across the board from the yearly lows. I'm wondering if its set to go past the ATH? It's looking like it personally.

 

[Space Lynx]

Free your mind Neo ~