Intel CEO Asks US Government for More Backing, Calls Taiwan Not Stable

[RandallFlagg]

Was that referendum taken before or after the Krim was invaded?

After. But there is a lot of nuance there.

Russia invited the UN to monitor the referendum, the UN refused. That would be to intentionally de-legitimize the referendum. Also read those poll results, they are not from Russia, they are independent western polling organizations. Read the last bullet, they didn't even hit the most pro-Russian parts of Crimea and still have ~80% support for reunification with Russia. And the history of Crimea. Crimea was full of Russians from the get-go. A lot of them have family in Russia. It would be like the US breaking up and giving Alaska to Canada because it's land locked with Canada. Alaska would still be full of Americans 20 years later.

 

[Why_Me]

After. But there is a lot of nuance there.

Russia invited the UN to monitor the referendum, the UN refused. That would be to intentionally de-legitimize the referendum. Also read those poll results, they are not from Russia, they are independent western polling organizations. Read the last bullet, they didn't even hit the most pro-Russian parts of Crimea and still have ~80% support for reunification with Russia. And the history of Crimea. Crimea was full of Russians from the get-go. A lot of them have family in Russia. It would be like the US breaking up and giving Alaska to Canada because it's land locked with Canada. Alaska would still be full of Americans 20 years later.

I won't argue the point that the majority of the population of the Krim voted to join Russia but it still doesn't ignore the fact that Ukraine was invaded. As far as Russians being the majority there .. it was populated by Russians and depopulized of Ukrainians and Tartars starting with Katherine the Great and finished off by Stalin.

 

[RandallFlagg]

I won't argue the point that the majority of the population of the Krim voted to join Russia but it still doesn't ignore the fact that Ukraine was invaded. As far as Russians being the majority there .. it was populated by Russians and depopulized of Ukrainians and Tartars starting with Katherine the Great and finished off by Stalin.

Tartars are mostly Russian today. The reason there were 'Tartars' there is because of the Mongol invasion, they are multi-ethnic offspring of invaders and those who lived there before. The Tartars intermarried with Russians including their nobility, and Crimea specifically was one of the last (in a long line) of groups that were annexed into Russia. This is the whole fallacy of going back in time and ignoring who lives someplace now, people are not static.

Ukraine was always separate from Russia. It was no different than Poland or Czech in that regard to its relationship to the USSR. Crimea was separate, part of Russia going back 250 years, but got thrown into Ukraine when the USSR broke up.

Taiwan on the other hand, was part of China. In point of fact, that train of logic you are using justifies China taking over Taiwan (if we don't care about who lives there today, only who used to live there 300 years ago). Taiwan is a break-away province of China, occupied by forces loyal to a now deposed government. Crimea's inclusion in Ukraine and removal as part of Russia is an event that has happened in the mid 1990s, somewhat arbitrarily.

In my view the destiny should be decided by people who live there today. That would mean Taiwan should be Taiwan, not China. Crimea should be Russian, because that is what those people want.

But if you go by some arbitrary point in the past, perhaps Crimea should be Chinese too. That's the time frame you're using.

Here's what should be Mongolian using that thought from the time frame you chose :

 

[mb194dc]

Intel actually have a point here. Taiwan is continually being threatened with invasion by China. That is not somewhere you want so much of the worlds fab capabilities. Makes sense to have manufacturing in the Americas and in Europe too.

Not just for chips, need to re-industrialise the west generally.

 

[TheLostSwede]

Intel actually have a point here. Taiwan is continually being threatened with invasion by China. That is not somewhere you want so much of the worlds fab capabilities. Makes sense to have manufacturing in the Americas and in Europe too.

Not just for chips, need to re-industrialise the west generally.

You ever been to Taiwan?
Did you even look at what is going on in terms of the ADIZ?

It's funny how everyone here, who's most likely never set foot in Taiwan, knows so much about what's going on.
Kind of regret I even wrote this news post, since clearly I have no understanding about what's going on....

 

[Am*]

America needs to go back to its roots. Made in America and let our two oceans protect us, just as George Washington said we should do. Nothing has changed, radar out in the ocean will still give us plenty of time to mobilize if a threat ever comes about, we only need a small standing military, and ability to quickly mobilize. If we didn't rely on globalization/trade so heavily, climate change would be better off and we would be living in a utopia, because no one would dare wake the sleeping giant, as Japan learned its mistake in 1941.

America is doing a great job in collapsing itself in a very similar way the Soviet Union did. No amount of military or bought nukes is going to stop that -- and we all know deep down, all of the allies of the US are seriously re-evaluating their supportive relationship after the disaster that was the Afghanistan withdrawal (and rightfully so).

The history from WW1 and WW2 has no relevance today -- because the US had the technological advantages at the time. That's not the case anymore and hasn't been for a long time.China already owns and produces all of the tech the US has had and also owns all of the voluntarily handed over instructions/plans from the US in how to manufacture and assemble it (from the likes of Apple, Tesla, etc) On top of that, the Chinese government is pumping their most advanced domestic companies full of state owned money to overtake the US even further.

Same with China and Russia right now, they would not dare to hurt Taiwan or Japan, because they know the entire world would band together to protect Taiwan. These are just feint tactics by China and Russia. China has always been playing the long game, never the short. They are twiddling their thumbs as we bury ourselves in 30 trillion, rapidly approaching 40 trillion in debt, and hyperinflation will soon buckle the poorer classes, causing great duress.

Yeah right -- you mean the same way Ukraine is being defended against Russia by the US and Eurocrats? Let's face it -- when Taiwan gets attacked by China, the US and Europe are going to stand by, watch and do absolutely nothing as they wag their finger in disapproval with some nothing-burger sanctions. Even more so now that Dementia Joe is in the president's seat (who we all know is already bought and paid for by China). China knows the US and the rest of the world needs them more than they need the US -- you can already see this by the way corporations are licking the Chinese boot. It's just a matter of time until they use it to their advantage.

I do fully agree with you on the rest of what you said about the US collapsing under its collective debt -- that's absolutely going to happen, one way or the other.

 

[Vayra86]

While Gelsinger and Intel clearly have their own reasons for this, he isn't wrong. All you have to do to see this is search "china taiwan" and look at the news.

Just yesterday Japans ex-PM Shinzo Abe made a simple statement "“A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan-US alliance,”

I would consider this to be self-evident, but China summoned their envoy to China and berated Japan saying Abe’s remarks “gave brazen support to Taiwan independence forces” and “China is resolutely opposed to this”. They said Japan had “no right” to make “irresponsible” remarks on the Taiwan issue, because of its history of aggression against China.

I've read up on this quite a bit and, most analysts for the region believe that there will be a decision point sometime within 5 years. Many say the next 3 years. By decision point, I mean China will make a move.

And from that reading, the most likely first move is a naval blockade of Taiwan by China. Then the west has to make a decision, let them fall to China or break the blockade...

Unless the west - not just the US but the EU and other allies - are willing to defend Taiwan from China full stop, there's a huge risk there. So like I said, Gelsinger is not wrong.

China making a move, yes, the US is good at fueling the conflict and setting the boundaries. Meanwhile, the US also generally the first to have its paws on everything. Funny how that works, what goes around comes around. Nobody wants to lose, but the US wants to win.

That being said, I think its exactly the entanglement of all these countries and interests that keeps the peace. As long as China is talking, its not shooting, and the TL DR there is: they know shooting will only cause damage, loss and creates a situation they cannot control.

So let's keep talking and let's keep those interests entangled. The only other path, which includes trying to go national, is setting up for WW3. You can rest assured you're not buying your fancy GPU then.

 

[phanbuey]

China making a move, yes, the US is good at fueling the conflict and setting the boundaries. Meanwhile, the US also generally the first to have its paws on everything. Funny how that works, what goes around comes around. Nobody wants to lose, but the US wants to win.

That being said, I think its exactly the entanglement of all these countries and interests that keeps the peace. As long as China is talking, its not shooting, and the TL DR there is: they know shooting will only cause damage, loss and creates a situation they cannot control.

So let's keep talking and let's keep those interests entangled. The only other path, which includes trying to go national, is setting up for WW3.

This.

That being said, healthy competition alongside entanglement is also very good.

One country monopolizing semiconductors is like having one CPU or one GFX company -- horrible for the consumers.

 

[Vayra86]

This.

That being said, healthy competition alongside entanglement is also very good.

One country monopolizing semiconductors is like having one CPU or one GFX company -- horrible for the consumers.

Healthy, yes. Intel and healthy competition hardly go hand in hand. Realistically Intel is just asking the US to throw money at Intel problems, while the company shouldn't have had any. I understand Pat's reasoning, and at the same time, he still stinks like old socks as does everything coming out of his mouth. I know a rat when I see one.

We've seen Intel taking its sweet time, and this was fully, entirely their own strategic planning at work. And going forward what they have design wise right now, is yesterday technology. None of their ideas are their own, they just iterate on them, which is a nice way of stealing. Not exactly a forward-looking company if you ask me, and definitely not leading anymore.

Push those millions to AMD or even let them compete by giving both half the bags of money.

 

[pcminirace]

While Gelsinger and Intel clearly have their own reasons for this, he isn't wrong. All you have to do to see this is search "china taiwan" and look at the news.

Just yesterday Japans ex-PM Shinzo Abe made a simple statement "“A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan-US alliance,”

I would consider this to be self-evident, but China summoned their envoy to China and berated Japan saying Abe’s remarks “gave brazen support to Taiwan independence forces” and “China is resolutely opposed to this”. They said Japan had “no right” to make “irresponsible” remarks on the Taiwan issue, because of its history of aggression against China.

I've read up on this quite a bit and, most analysts for the region believe that there will be a decision point sometime within 5 years. Many say the next 3 years. By decision point, I mean China will make a move.

And from that reading, the most likely first move is a naval blockade of Taiwan by China. Then the west has to make a decision, let them fall to China or break the blockade...

Unless the west - not just the US but the EU and other allies - are willing to defend Taiwan from China full stop, there's a huge risk there. So like I said, Gelsinger is not wrong.

The world is going to end. Reagan and Chernenko will push the buttons ... No, it will be Saddam's weapons of mass destruction ... I mean Cuban missiles ... Or climate change ... caused by the amount of energy we spend on making chips because everyone we want the latest cpu or gpu even though the one we have works fine. I am 52 years old. I was raised with the idea of a thermonuclear war fairly present. Humanity has survived. Don't tell me chinese tales, please. Mr. Money is a powerful gentleman.

The world is going to end. Reagan and Chernenko will push the buttons ... No, it will be Saddam's weapons of mass destruction ... I mean Cuban missiles ... Or climate change ... caused by the amount of energy we spend on making chips because everyone we want the latest cpu or gpu even though the one we have works fine. I am 52 years old. I was raised with the idea of a thermonuclear war fairly present. Humanity has survived. Don't tell me chinese tales, please. Mr. Money is a powerful gentleman.

 

[RandallFlagg]

China making a move, yes, the US is good at fueling the conflict and setting the boundaries. Meanwhile, the US also generally the first to have its paws on everything. Funny how that works, what goes around comes around. Nobody wants to lose, but the US wants to win.

That being said, I think its exactly the entanglement of all these countries and interests that keeps the peace. As long as China is talking, its not shooting, and the TL DR there is: they know shooting will only cause damage, loss and creates a situation they cannot control.

So let's keep talking and let's keep those interests entangled. The only other path, which includes trying to go national, is setting up for WW3. You can rest assured you're not buying your fancy GPU then.

So you bet the world on China not doing what it says it's going to do?

Sounds like wishful thinking to me.

Might want to look up what the highest grossing movie in the world is this year, and what it's subject matter is.

You might want to look up about china's new aircraft carriers, and when they're expected to be completed.

China is preparing itself.

 

[phanbuey]

Healthy, yes. Intel and healthy competition hardly go hand in hand. Realistically Intel is just asking the US to throw money at Intel problems, while the company shouldn't have had any. I understand Pat's reasoning, and at the same time, he still stinks like old socks as does everything coming out of his mouth. I know a rat when I see one.

We've seen Intel taking its sweet time, and this was fully, entirely their own strategic planning at work. And going forward what they have design wise right now, is yesterday technology. None of their ideas are their own, they just iterate on them, which is a nice way of stealing. Not exactly a forward-looking company if you ask me, and definitely not leading anymore.

Push those millions to AMD or even let them compete by giving both half the bags of money.

This isn't about AMD though, it's not about ARM. Pat is talking about fabs, not processors/designs. AMD is fully reliant on TSMC. If TSMC goes down, then AMD needs to have an alternative Fab -- Samsung, Intel etc. Someone who can backport their designs to a new fab/packaging process etc. (ahem rocketlake).

No the government isn't giving intel money so they can sit around and make more lakes. It's to build chip fabs. They're actively working with outside clients and IBM specifically to start fabbing other people's designs. They know how to port, how to switch nodes, they're actively working on disaggregation and packaging tiles across different nodes.

AMD mismanaged their fabs into the dirt as well, by the way, as have most US semiconductors, while Asian countries subsidized theirs. I don't love intel monopolizing all US side fabs, and I hope we subsidize other competitors, but at this point we are in a bit of a pickle.

 

[AdmiralThrawn]

My personal opinion on this is that we should help ourselves first. Taiwan is a close ally and so is japan. But to be able to protect them we have to be a strong independent nation. We are definitely still strong. But no longer independent.

 

[Vayra86]

So you bet the world on China not doing what it says it's going to do?

Sounds like wishful thinking to me.

Might want to look up what the highest grossing movie in the world is this year, and what it's subject matter is.

You might want to look up about china's new aircraft carriers, and when they're expected to be completed.

China is preparing itself.

China is preparing to meet the US on the same terms. Effectively we're still expanding on Cold War tactics and this will likely continue. Will someone start shooting? Who knows. Out of our circle of influence.

What I do know is that the US has been first on every conflict post-WW2 and that their strategy is called Full Spectrum Dominance.

That strategy is now under active pressure and much like Intel, the US has been asleep at the wheel, soaked in money as it was. It echoes in the quality of its national systems. Healthcare, the overall state of hypercapitalism fueled by the dollar, its failing moral high ground, and its failing society at large. A political system that is in permanent limbo because even there the winner takes all mentality means progress gets killed every time. The fact that they're surpassed in military technology suddenly seems to spark all sorts of new initiatives.

This is as much China as it is the US. Don't get me wrong - I'm partial to democracy over autocracy. But the winner takes all mentality is EOL. With regards to climate and all other problems that far surpass national borders, its time to start sharing our problems and fix them together. Its the inevitable outcome because we've built a world on economy of scale. The scale is now beyond national and continents.

 

[RandallFlagg]

China is preparing to meet the US on the same terms. Effectively we're still expanding on Cold War tactics and this will likely continue. Will someone start shooting? Who knows.

What I do know is that the US has been first on every conflict post-WW2 and that their strategy is called Full Spectrum Dominance.

That strategy is now under active pressure and much like Intel, the US has been asleep at the wheel, soaked in money as it was. It echoes in the quality of its national systems. Healthcare, the overall state of hypercapitalism fueled by the dollar, its failing moral high ground, and its failing society at large. A political system that is in permanent limbo because even there the winner takes all mentality means progress gets killed every time.

So you basically refuse to educate yourself on the topic, and just want to criticize the west.

That's why China will win.

 

[phanbuey]

That strategy is now under active pressure and much like Intel, the US has been asleep at the wheel, soaked in money as it was. It echoes in the quality of its national systems. Healthcare, the overall state of hypercapitalism fueled by the dollar, its failing moral high ground, and its failing society at large. A political system that is in permanent limbo because even there the winner takes all mentality means progress gets killed every time.

Yeah but if you think that it's worse than the system putting pressure on it (China, communist party) -- you're 100% incorrect. I would take a broken western system any day rather than live under communism again.

Remember - just because they don't acknowledge their problems, or don't tell you about them doesn't mean they don't exists.

We used to have parades with smiling children while people were starving in camps... it's the same thing.

 

[Vayra86]

So you basically refuse to educate yourself on the topic, and just want to criticize the west.

That's why China will win.

I'm quite well educated. China won't win, because its an autocracy. Did you watch Chernobyl?

Yeah but if you think that it's worse than the system putting pressure on it (China, communist party) -- you're 100% incorrect. I would take a broken western system any day rather than live under communism again.

Remember - just because they don't acknowledge their problems, or don't tell you about them doesn't mean they don't exists.

We used to have parades with smiling children while people were starving in camps... it's the same thing.

Read my last couple sentences because I wasn't finished

Obviously. There isn't a perfect system, but democracy sure as hell is the best imperfect version we have.

My personal opinion on this is that we should help ourselves first. Taiwan is a close ally and so is japan. But to be able to protect them we have to be a strong independent nation. We are definitely still strong. But no longer independent.

You can't have your cake and eat it too. If you want real allies you give up some independance. If there is no mutual benefit, there is no alliance.

 

[RandallFlagg]

I'm quite well educated. China won't win, because its an autocracy. Did you watch Chernobyl?

I did watch that. Yes their system is very inefficient and corrupt, but you're missing that part about the #1 movie, Chosin river, Korean war.

They turned a battle where they lost 60,000 soldiers vs less than 11,000 US/UN/ROK (S. Korea) into a victory. They still achieved their goal, with N Korea the result. China can lose 5:1 and still win.

That movie is funded by the CCP. #1 in the world, only released in China. They are grooming their people for this type of battle / war.

 

[Vayra86]

I did watch that. Yes their system is very inefficient and corrupt, but you're missing that part about the #1 movie, Chosin river, Korean war.

They turned a battle where they lost 60,000 soldiers vs less than 11,000 US/UN/ROK (S. Korea) into a victory. They still achieved their goal, with N Korea the result. China can lose 5:1 and still win.

That movie is funded by the CCP. #1 in the world, only released in China. They are grooming their people for this type of battle / war.

They have the numbers. The Russians had the numbers too, remember? Didn't fare too well...

And the grooming is exactly why they can't win. This is not 1500. Its the information age. Autocracy leads to tunnel vision and Xi is already showing the signs, frequently, of that. Liberated thought processes are going to win. As long as China is heavily reliant on success in its economy to keep citizens happy, you know the national balance is fragile. Grooming might work on part of the population, but they also have internet, even despite a great firewall, and nobody likes repression.

Who needs a few million soldiers if you can turn everything off online? Size has gone abstract.

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

You ever been to Taiwan?
Did you even look at what is going on in terms of the ADIZ?

It's funny how everyone here, who's most likely never set foot in Taiwan, knows so much about what's going on.
Kind of regret I even wrote this news post, since clearly I have no understanding about what's going on....

Your post was very good, and definitely stirred the pot, it is a complex subject a lot of is here have had jammed down our throats a lot in the last year, your right some of us think we know something after being barraged with dramatic news releases and opinion pieces, but having someone like yourself ,who is living in the country we couldn't get a more grounded , one of us opinion.
Some do like to learn, get involved set it right I know I would appreciate the context based input.

 

[TheLostSwede]

Your post was very good, and definitely stirred the pot, it is a complex subject a lot of is here have had jammed down our throats a lot in the last year, your right some of us think we know something after being barraged with dramatic news releases and opinion pieces, but having someone like yourself ,who is living in the country we couldn't get a more grounded , one of us opinion.
Some do like to learn, get involved set it right I know I would appreciate the context based input.

To be honest, nothing has changed outside of what's going on with the pandemic.
It's not as if people are expecting an impending invasion.
Right now, what seems to be going on at least, is the PRC punishing Taiwanese companies that have investments in the PRC, by making sure they follow the PRC line of thought. Likewise for artist and just about anyone else that is famous in the PRC, but hails from Taiwan.

The ones that are talking about war, are all white people that sit in an office in a different part of the world.
It's not that Taiwan isn't concerned, but it's not affecting day to day life here and people aren't freaking out about it.

As someone mentioned to my significant other, if the PRC told the Taiwanese that they would have the money in they bank accounts converted to RMB at a one to one ratio, most people here would gladly join the PRC in an instant. Sadly the PRC wants to make a show of power and diminish Taiwan to the rest of the world, which has lead to the current situation. It obviously doesn't help that Xi has gone power crazy and is causing a fair share of issues "back home" by trying to undo the last 20 years of softer totalitarianism.

At the end of the day, it's impossible to predict what will happen, but scaremongering isn't a good look on Pat imho. He should focus on his job instead of getting involved in politics.

 

[ixi]

How important are microchips atm .. I enquired a few weeks ago about purchasing a 2022 Ford Maverick and was told by the salesman that I was looking at a 8 - 12 month wait.

You Can’t Order a Ford Maverick Hybrid Until Summer 2022Customers will either have to spring for the EcoBoost or wait for 2023 models to snag a hybrid. (Info which I found from grandma with googles )

Well, interesting for me is this - how we achieved that demand for chips are higher than we can make them????? I highly doubt that if for EXAMPLE: TSMC can make 100 million chis a year I just dont want to believe that they have overbooked their capability... not to mention that there are other vendors which sell too...

 

[Why_Me]

You Can’t Order a Ford Maverick Hybrid Until Summer 2022Customers will either have to spring for the EcoBoost or wait for 2023 models to snag a hybrid.

Well, interesting for me is this - how we achieved that demand for chips are higher than we can make them????? I highly doubt that if for EXAMPLE: TSMC can make 100 million chis a year I just dont want to believe that they have overbooked their capability... not to mention that there are other vendors which sell too...

I need AWD so the hybrid is out of the question. With that said Ford will have a 2023 2.2 Ecoboost STX AWD model of the Maverick so I will probably go with that if they have them available. The delay on those pickups is due to the chip shortage from what the salesman told me and from what I've read online.

 

[RandallFlagg]

You Can’t Order a Ford Maverick Hybrid Until Summer 2022Customers will either have to spring for the EcoBoost or wait for 2023 models to snag a hybrid. (Info which I found from grandma with googles )

Well, interesting for me is this - how we achieved that demand for chips are higher than we can make them????? I highly doubt that if for EXAMPLE: TSMC can make 100 million chis a year I just dont want to believe that they have overbooked their capability... not to mention that there are other vendors which sell too...

I think the missing chips for mainline industries are mostly things like LCD/OLED drivers and power management ICs.

A lot of these are actually made in the US, Japan, and S. Korea. Most of the shortage is on mature nodes, not the new ones. I have yet to figure out why there is so much focus on TSMC, their capacity constraints + crypto / home demand is definitely affecting GPUs but that's not too relevant vs cars and microwave ovens.

I'll guess because people are not aware of all the other fabs on the planet and talking about a TI fab in Texas doesn't generate clicks.

Not too many people are going to google for "Power Management Integrated Circuit Shortage". Lots will look for "GPU shortage" though.

 

[ixi]

I need AWD so the hybrid is out of the question. With that said Ford will have a 2023 2.2 Ecoboost STX AWD model of the Maverick so I will probably go with that if they have them available. The delay on those pickups is due to the chip shortage from what the salesman told me and from what I've read online.

Yeah, but this is the part I don't get it. TSMC makes 100 mill chips a year (100 mil is guessing). They book for example from the tsmc 1 mill. TSMC provides the 1 mill chips. Then it is up to ford where to put chips... not to mention there are other chip makers too. And there are 100% other vendors which they can use as well not just TSMC (I'm again guessing they are using TSMC).