Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[80-watt Hamster]

Yeah, you are right. Maybe the bottom is near then.

At the same time, who the eff knows? The source I used here started tracking in '11, where it opened at $11 then promptly bottomed at a bit over $2. 2015 sent it from $1100 to less than $200, then CY2018 saw a slide from $19k to $3k. It landed at $30k when the $64k bubble popped last April. The rules are ostensibly a bit different now with so much big money involved, but a surface-level look suggests that an 80% drop is not out of the question, which would place the bottom at around $14k. I don't think it'll go that low, but have no predictions beyond that, nor anything to base them upon.

EDIT: Something I just noticed was that the first two seriously big peaks (2014, 2017) hit late in the year, with the subsequent decline taking almost exactly a year. Last ATH was November. Time to see if coincidence becomes a pattern?

 

[trog100]

crypto is at the mercy of the stock markets and they look pretty scary..

trog

 

[80-watt Hamster]

crypto is at the mercy of the stock markets and they look pretty scary..

trog

IDK, BTC and the DJI had similar motion at several points, but the current BTC slide preceded that of the DJI by a decent bit this time around, and there was no mirror to the spring '21 BTC correction at all.

 

[lexluthermiester]

crypto is at the mercy of the stock markets and they look pretty scary..

trog

Sorry man, that's just not correct. Stocks are fine. No indications of a crash, at all.

 

[LFaWolf]

Sorry man, that's just not correct. Stocks are fine. No indications of a crash, at all.

Nasdaq and S&P 500 have entered bear market today.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Nasdaq and S&P 500 have entered bear market today.

I'm not seeing this.

Market Data Center - MarketWatch

View the MarketWatch summary of the U.S., Europe and Asia stock markets, currencies, cryptocurrencies, rates and futures.

www.marketwatch.com

Today was a brisk trading day for both.
Hell even CNN disagrees;

U.S. Stock Market Data - Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P500 - CNNMoney

Where are you looking for info?

 

[LFaWolf]

I'm not seeing this.

Market Data Center - MarketWatch

View the MarketWatch summary of the U.S., Europe and Asia stock markets, currencies, cryptocurrencies, rates and futures.

www.marketwatch.com

Today was a brisk trading day for both.
Hell even CNN disagrees;

U.S. Stock Market Data - Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P500 - CNNMoney

Where are you looking for info?

You are late to the party. Dow was down more than a 1000 points before people were buying the dip in a major way. S&P 500 is down more than 12% from its all time high.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Dow was down more than a 1000 points

1000 points out of 34k is just not a big drop. If it drops 4000 we might have something to worry about.

 

[trog100]

1000 points out of 34k is just not a big drop. If it drops 4000 we might have something to worry about.

anyways the stock markets are back in the green today.. bitcoin has followed them.. up from 33K to 36K..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

anyways the stock markets are back in the green today.. bitcoin has followed them.. up from 33K to 36K..

trog

The stock market finished in the green yesterday. The fact that crypto is up today is likely just a coincidence. Your theory about them performing in harmony with each other has never shown any merit.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin seems to have hit a bottom at 33K and now seems to be climbing out.. bitcoin now at 38K with eth at 2.6K..

the recent correlation between bitcoin and the stock market has been noted by more than me.. but my general feeling is if the stock market go down bitcoin will go down with them..

i am expecting a stock market down turn.. its been artificially pumped up by fed money printing for a long time now..

trog

ps.. i dont own any stocks.. i do own some gold and silver plus some crypto.. not a lot but some..

 

[80-watt Hamster]

bitcoin seems to have hit a bottom at 33K and now seems to be climbing out.. bitcoin now at 38K with eth at 2.6K..

the recent correlation between bitcoin and the stock market has been noted by more than me.. but my general feeling is if the stock market go down bitcoin will go down with them..

i am expecting a stock market down turn.. its been artificially pumped up by fed money printing for a long time now..

trog

ps.. i dont own any stocks.. i do own some gold and silver plus some crypto.. not a lot but some..

Define "recent". If you're talking over the last year, BTC is up 25% or so:

... and the Dow is up less than 20%:

BTC's May dive and its slide from early Nov to this week aren't reflected in the DJI. The climb in the Dow from 12/1 to 1/4 wasn't matched by BTC. Sure, broadly speaking, most markets move together over the long term. Some of the peaks and valleys match up, but unless I'm looking in the wrong places (or looking at it wrong), short-interval motion of BTC isn't linked terribly closely to that of stocks.

 

[cvaldes]

The Dow 30 is the most asinine market index.

The problem with comparing any cryptocurrency with any market index is the fact that cryptos are wildly volatile so seeing any patterns in the curves is difficult for the less experienced investor or armchair ANALyst.

However cryptos are not immune to macro trends in the markets.

Here's ETH in blue (TTM). Very volatile.

The green line is the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC aka COMPX). Like I mentioned, the lower volatility of the market index makes any pattern recognition difficult.

The purple line is a 3x leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF. The Nasdaq-100 is the top 100 (a subset) of the Nasdaq Composite excluding financial corporations, so really tech heavy. There is notably positive correlation with the Nasdaq-100.

Cryptos aren't islands in the investment universe. They are still subject to macro factors like natural disasters, insurrection, war, interest rates, politics, etc.

They are still very immature as financial instruments.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

The Dow 30 is the most asinine market index.

The problem with comparing any cryptocurrency with any market index is the fact that cryptos are wildly volatile so seeing any patterns in the curves is difficult for the less experienced investor or armchair ANALyst.

However cryptos are not immune to macro trends in the markets.

View attachment 234045
Here's ETH in blue (TTM). Very volatile.

The green line is the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC aka COMPX). Like I mentioned, the lower volatility of the market index makes any pattern recognition difficult.

The purple line is a 3x leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF. The Nasdaq is the top 100 of the Nasdaq excluding financial corporations, so really tech heavy. There is notably positive correlation with the Nasdaq-100.

Cryptos aren't islands in the investment universe. They are still subject to macro factors like natural disasters, insurrection, war, interest rates, politics, etc.

Thank you for actually providing some context (ANALyst dig notwithstanding ). As you've rightly surmised, I don't really know what I'm talking about, which is one reason why I'm here. But what I'm trying to get at, in an apparently roundabout way, is the root of Trog's numerous mentions of crypto value vs. that of stocks. Yeah, they'll eventually all rise and fall more-or-less together on the same market "tides". But that's almost a tautology; both are traded on markets, so will both respond to market conditions, and outside of short-term deviations and swings, follow broader long-term trends together. Is that useful information, though? That can be said of any commodity.

 

[trog100]

Thank you for actually providing some context (ANALyst dig notwithstanding ). As you've rightly surmised, I don't really know what I'm talking about, which is one reason why I'm here. But what I'm trying to get at, in an apparently roundabout way, is the root of Trog's numerous mentions of crypto value vs. that of stocks. Yeah, they'll eventually all rise and fall more-or-less together on the same market "tides". But that's almost a tautology; both are traded on markets, so will both respond to market conditions, and outside of short-term deviations and swings, follow broader long-term trends together. Is that useful information, though? That can be said of any commodity.

i make short up to date posts on current trends.. i sometimes mention gold and the stock markets.. this is just my oppinion nothing else.. if people doubt my oppinion they are free to do their own research and reach their own conclusions.. what i dont do is produce source evidence.. its all to easy to pick and choose source evidence to suit ones own viewpoint.. which does make it kind of pointless..

gold by the way has gone up over the last few days.. bitcoin seems to have leveled off at around 38K.. where it goes from now is anybodies guess..

trog

ps.. well bitcoin was looking good up at 38K until the stock markets tanked and dragged it down.. its now at 35K..

ps 2.. gold has now dropped a fair bit.. there isnt much sense in these markets at the moment.. anything could happen.. bitcoin is currently at 36K..

 

[Chomiq]

Bitcoin and stock market atm:

 

[trog100]

the none US stock markets are all in the red.. bitcoin is still holding at 36K.. this may change when the US markets open later in the day.. it will be interesting to see how things co-relate..

trog

 

[trog100]

sunday morning.. bitcoin now at 38K with eth at 2.6K.. purely my own oppinion but i think 33K was the bottom.. maybe "hope" is clouding my judgement one can never tell.. he he

trog

 

[Chomiq]

sunday morning.. bitcoin now at 38K with eth at 2.6K.. purely my own oppinion but i think 33K was the bottom.. maybe "hope" is clouding my judgement one can never tell.. he he

trog

There no "bottom", your last "bottom" was 42K

 

[trog100]

There no "bottom", your last "bottom" was 42K

i was wrong.. he he.. my thinking was that the previous bottom was around 30K (allowing for a long term upward trend) the next one would higher at 40K.. 33k is still higher but not quite as optimistically higher as 40K..

by "bottom" i mean the point where a downward trend reverses and turns into an upward trend.. this is my "bias" showing.. i am firmly convinced that long term bitcoin can only go up..

trog

 

[heliosgnosis]

RandallFlagg...

Your medium term projection chart....

Has the upper trendline on that channel you've drawn really developed a strong enough secondary point to call that a channel? I'm not seeing it. Second, this market has fallen to the primary breakout point from late January 2021. Seems like a normal BTTB, or back to the breakout correction and volume is drying up. If I was still trading markets, I'd be buying this area for a trade with a stop just below 30k. It's what happens at the next peak that would matter to me.

From my perspective...twin peaks around 55k and I'd be long gone. Lastly...you're using a 5 wave pattern which usually signifies that you believe were not in just a pullback...or a-b-c correction, correct? Are you using elliott wave? If you'd point out which method of analysis you're using it would be easier to follow along.

From my perspective...If we do five waves(in a retest of the lows)..we're truncating the fifth and holding 30k. Why? Because the "average complete" decline of BTC has been 48% or so from the very beginning and even in 1929, the first wave of the crash was the same percentage...expecting more than 48% seems a little...much? Perhaps a counter-trend bounce is in order?

Your longer term projection? I'm very much in agreement.

With all of that said...I am enjoying your posting of charts...please continue to do so.

Best Regards,

Liquid Cool

This current bitcoin price dip is the 8th time since it came into our world. And BTW bitcoins ebbs and flows are all to do with the false value so placed on the USD fiat paper dollar and any other currency on earth that so has currency based on nothing "good word and honor are not things that exist or can be trusted in todays world" Those who have altered things have run out of options to make paper dollars appear to have a store of wealth, before they just offset to products to which the US made endless troves of, that was just after Nixon left office though and China was not what we and the world turned it into to so take the place of number one maker for all things consumers want and a lot the do not even need but will want lol. That said every time and it has been 8 times bitcoin dove 25-55% in value, within a couple months of each a new cycle began and it mooned all 8 times. Bitcoin up in value means DOLLARS BADDDDDD and valueless, interest rates out of control all consumers not spending and scared of what is coming along with a nice stock market deep dive........ Bitcoin down means paper money is under wraps and the illusion is hardset for the time being to keep the BS game rolling for those that think they have the right to rule us. BTW USD paper dollar based on BS not gold or silver or anything with some sort of real world value happened on Christmas day in the early 20th century on a island just off of the state of Georga in the SE US.... I am being vague due to the nature of the federal reserve taking up power and hold of that little piece they own of their debt slaves AKA us citizens of ALL nations. Why did I type all this?? To help those seeking to be woken up to have the means to know where to start to slap them awake in seconds when they discover all above is truth above all truths

 

[R-T-B]

BTW USD paper dollar based on BS not gold or silver or anything with some sort of real world value happened on Christmas day in the early 20th century on a island just off of the state of Georga in the SE US.... I am being vague due to the nature of the federal reserve taking up power and hold of that little piece they own of their debt slaves AKA us citizens of ALL nations. Why did I type all this?? To help those seeking to be woken up to have the means to know where to start to slap them awake in seconds when they discover all above is truth above all truths

I swear stuff like this makes me wonder why I ever backed up Crypto... I thought it could be something, but it's become like the 4chan of currencies.

You aren't helping the cause with walls of nutty text like this in a price thread...

 

[LFaWolf]

i was wrong.. he he.. my thinking was that the previous bottom was around 30K (allowing for a long term upward trend) the next one would higher at 40K.. 33k is still higher but not quite as optimistically higher as 40K..

by "bottom" i mean the point where a downward trend reverses and turns into an upward trend.. this is my "bias" showing.. i am firmly convinced that long term bitcoin can only go up..

trog

I don’t think there is enough time passed to establish $33k is the bottom. If it stays above $33k for a month or more then I would believe it.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin now at 39K with eth at 2.8K .. the stock markets are all nicely in the green..

trog

 

[trog100]

thursday morning.. bitcoin dropped down to 36K with eth at 2.6K... the stock markets are all in the red..

trog