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Agreed. Potential effects on IC production and shipping aren't even a blip on the map of concerns from this crap. You're right that market instability in general can affect it, but that's also very unpredictable - and historically, tech is relatively stable in the face of things like these simply due to consistent demand. That doesn't mean immune, but less likely to see major effects.This sentiment pops up frequently, but I'm not convinced it's the case. The graphics market being bananas right now doesn't make GPUs exempt from the general rules of manufactured products. Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price (or sometimes Recommended Retail Price) exists because the manufacturer has run the numbers on manufacturing and supply chain costs against market research and come up with a number that they think will result in the target number of sales. This helps everyone on the chain negotiate or set prices at an "appropriate" level.
Sometimes, though, a market goes sideways. Toilet paper (in the US) at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The new Ford Bronco, among numerous other examples from the car world. Granted, there isn't an MSRP for toiled paper. But the point is, prices tend to return to baseline. Bogroll's back in line with other paper products. Hot vehicles often end up being sold at a discount a few model years later once the launch spike in demand dries out. Not that long ago, folks were lamenting that PC gaming was dead or dying (they still are, but for different reasons). Stuff changes. Crypto will either settle, shift or bust. Demand will become sated, and/or supply will catch up with it. Could take another year, could take five. I'll admit the possibility exists that the good times are over, and that we won't see capable cards at the USD200 price point again. But it's easy to make the mistake of thinking that since a situation's been around for too long, that it'll be that way forever.
Good times, good times...
Direct links or not, the markets seem as jittery as they've been in years, so ripple effects will be even less predictable, IMO. Plus, fuel prices push everything else up, sometimes disproportionately. But I hope you're right; however, I'm personally more concerned about the effects on the population of Ukraine and the larger geopolitical fallout than the IC market. I suppose we're not here to talk about that, though.
Fuel prices don't really affect shipping costs that much, as the scale of the ships and the amounts of cargo they carry makes them very cheap to run - the container shortage and delays are much more impactful than a fuel price hike in this regard. It might have some effect, but not a massive one, and likely not a noticeable one with the current inflated price levels. Remember, a single shipping container can fit thousands of GPUs (and likely tens of thousands of CPUs), and a single shipping vessel carries hundreds if not thousands of containers. Divided across this, you would need a massive spike in fuel prices for unit prices to be meaningfully affected.Hi,
Think everyone has delivery issues way before this invasion crap started so adding more expense isn't going to help prices go down.
What's more likely IMO is for distributors and others to capitalize on insecurity by hiking prices. But that wouldn't be caused by the war, that would be caused by greed and opportunism.