Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[lexluthermiester]

bitcoin now hovering around 30K.. the trend is slightly up but mostly side ways..

For the last week or so yeah. Took a dive before that.

it seems to be closely linked to US stock market prices..

You keep saying this, but I'm not seeing it. My investments are not doing anything close to what cryptocoin is doing. So once again, I call nonsense on that.

 

[R-T-B]

You keep saying this, but I'm not seeing it. My investments are not doing anything close to what cryptocoin is doing

It should be easy to overlay one of the stock averages over the btc price and prove/disprove that one...

 

[lexluthermiester]

It should be easy to overlay one of the stock averages over the btc price and prove/disprove that one...

Exactly. The notion that the Stock markets and the cryptocoin markets act/react in harmony is ENTIRELY subjective and the merit of the idea depends on a "chaos theory" of example points.

 

[R-T-B]

Exactly. The notion that the Stock markets and the cryptocoin markets act/react in harmony is ENTIRELY subjective and the merit of the idea depends on a "chaos theory" of example points.

Well I mean you could say "it mimics x stock index" with some degree of substantiation, but that is about it. It really is a case of picking your charts.

 

[trog100]

on a daily basis what i noticed is when the US stock market goes down or up bitcoin follows it.. its what i see..

today for example bitcoin is up a tad.. when the US stock markets opens i expect them to also be up a tad..

its just what i am seeing at the moment.. i aint saying the relationship is permanent but its what i am seeing at the moment..

people seem to be treating bitcoin the same as they are treating tech stocks..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

on a daily what i noticed is when the US stock market goes down or up bitcoin follows it.. its what i see..

today for example bitcoin is up a tad.. when the US stock markets opens i expect them to also be up a tad..

its just what i am seeing at the moment.. i aint saying the relationship is permanent but its what i am seeing at the moment..

Ok, fair enough.

 

[R-T-B]

I could see a casual correlation there for sure. You can kind of think of crypto as one giant tech stock in and of itself honestly. Of course there are differences (crypto has no products beyond the tokens) but financially speaking it kind of makes sense.

 

[Vario]

Actually it's a lot off-topic.

Folks, take the general discussion of cryptocoin to the following thread;

General Cryptocoin Discussion

As many threads seem to get side-tracked with general discussion about cryptocoin, we need a thread where discussion about the subject that can meander from any one aspect as the users need it too. This is a general discussion about cryptocoin and all topics about this subject are welcome...

www.techpowerup.com

Futher off-topic discussion will be reported and thread-bans will be requested.

Discussing the effect of an exchange's ability to process high volume sell transactions versus the spot price of cryptocurrency is perfectly on topic, if exchanges cannot handle volume, that impacts the value because value can be defined as what someone has the ability to pay. If transactions are unable to be completed, the value will be definitely impacted. Feel free to report this.

 

[R-T-B]

Discussing the effect of an exchange's ability to process high volume sell transactions versus the spot price of cryptocurrency is perfectly on topic

No because this is just the current price trend thread.

 

[Solaris17]

No because this is just the current price trend thread.

I would have to agree, This thread seems to be specific to current trends. While I think a little speculation is un-avoidable for short term, it should stay just that.

I don't think anything said currently is really super off topic, but if we want to trend into theoretical world ending shit, lets put that in the other thread.

 

[dragontamer5788]

BTC is more correlated to stocks than I thought it'd be. Specifically, BTC seems correlated to Nasdaq, and more specifically, the "tech-bro" sector of ARKK investing and whatnot.

I wouldn't call BTC correlated with the general market. But ARKK vs BTC is pretty interesting.

Certainly not a 1-to-1 correlation... but its still way more correlated than I'd expect.

 

[R-T-B]

BTC is more correlated to stocks than I thought it'd be. Specifically, BTC seems correlated to Nasdaq, and more specifically, the "tech-bro" sector of ARKK investing and whatnot.

I wouldn't call BTC correlated with the general market. But ARKK vs BTC is pretty interesting.

View attachment 248546

Certainly not a 1-to-1 correlation... but its still way more correlated than I'd expect.

That is indeed fascinating...

 

[lexluthermiester]

BTC is more correlated to stocks than I thought it'd be. Specifically, BTC seems correlated to Nasdaq, and more specifically, the "tech-bro" sector of ARKK investing and whatnot.

I wouldn't call BTC correlated with the general market. But ARKK vs BTC is pretty interesting.

View attachment 248546

Certainly not a 1-to-1 correlation... but its still way more correlated than I'd expect.

That is indeed fascinating...

Agreed. That is very interesting. Not peak for peak, but there are some similarities.. One can see what trog has been talking about.

 

[cvaldes]

We have been over this before back in January.

Bitcoin has significant positive correlation with the overall U.S. technology industry.

TQQQ is a 3x leveraged ETF based on the Nasdaq-100 index. The Nasdaq 100 is the top 100 companies trading on that exchange that aren't financial corporations so extremely tech heavy. As one would expect for a cryptotoken, BTC shows higher beta than large cap corporations.

BTC has less correlation with the Dow 30 and the S&P 500 which cover a wider range of industries.

Unsurprisingly ARKK also correlates with the Nasdaq 100.

As these cryptotokens have matured over the years, they resemble the larger financial market closer and closer with every passing year. The smaller and newer cryptotokens often behave bizarrely.

 

[trog100]

Agreed. That is very interesting. Not peak for peak, but there are some similarities.. One can see what trog has been talking about.

i was right earlier.. bitcoin up a bit over the weekend the US stock markets opened in the green.. when you watch it day by day as i do the correlation is very obvious.. stock markets in the red down goes bitcoin when they are in the green up goes bitcoin..

the only thing that dosnt follow the same pattern is gold.. gold is now up a fair bit compared to what it was..

trog

 

[trog100]

tuesday.. stock markets well in the red.. bitcoin now down to 28K.. gold is up..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

bitcoin now down to 28K

Na, it's back up. It's doing the wobble again..

 

[trog100]

monday morning.. bitcoin back up to 30K with eth at 1.9K.. bitcoin is gaining a little more ground than eth..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

Eth seems to be tanking due to the impending POS transition that is finally going to happen. YFI has tanked too.

 

[R-T-B]

Eth seems to be tanking due to the impending POS transition that is finally going to happen. YFI has tanked too.

What's the timeframe for the transition? Any date yet?

It's all speculation of course but I expect a spike following the initial dump when that happens.

 

[lexluthermiester]

What's the timeframe for the transition? Any date yet?

Sometime in the next few months. It's overdue and they are working the problem.

 

[trog100]

monday.. later in the day.. bitcoin now at 31k with eth just below 2K..

things are moving up..

trog

 

[trog100]

wednesday morning.. bitcoin now back down to 30K with eth at 1.8K... eth is losing ground relative to bitcoin..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

eth is losing ground relative to bitcoin..

That's never happened before. The POW/POS switch-over has got to be the reason.

 

[R-T-B]

That's never happened before. The POW/POS switch-over has got to be the reason.

I expect it's a lack of investor confidence in the devs ability to pull it off. If they actually pull it off I expect it will help prices some.