When will gpu prices return to normal.

[ARF]

Anything released post 2020 isn't really comparable to previous gpu launches the majority of cards from the current generations released into a market where msrp were basically meaningless and pretty much everything sold for at least 50% over MSRP with some cards closer to 100% for the majority of their lifespan.

Except that a graphics card is only one component in a personal computer, and there are budget limitations for the buyers.
Unless you are willing to destroy the whole market for new PCs, you must respect the defined historical price lines.

 

[Solaris17]

Unless you are willing to destroy the whole market for new PCs, you must respect the defined historical price lines.

I mean, people had to buy entire pre-builts to get even some GPUs so I would say that even that data is disproportionately pumped.

 

[80251]

I mean, people had to buy entire pre-builts to get even some GPUs so I would say that even that data is disproportionately pumped.

That really says it all about how bad the GPU market has been lately. It's unprecedented in GPU history.

 

[tussinman]

Anything released post 2020 isn't really comparable to previous gpu launches the majority of cards from the current generations released into a market where msrp were basically meaningless and pretty much everything sold for at least 50% over MSRP with some cards closer to 100% for the majority of their lifespan.

The card he listed though (6600) is pretty much exactly at his countrys MSRP and it's still only comparable to 2 different 2019 era cards in terms of performance to price

Look at the Radeon RX 6600 - the cheapest model is priced 333 eur. The same performance and price as the old Radeon RX 5700 XT original MSRP in 2019 and RTX 2060 S back in 2019..

This is against progress and does not work for the market.

It is like the development was stopped and there is really nothing interesting happening.

It's not much better in the States. The 6600 MSRP is like $20 cheaper than my 3.5 year old RTX 2060 and it's only like 10% faster.

3.5 years and we have $20 cheaper and 10-12% faster. No real incentive for those 2060/2070 era card owners to upgrade because like you said not alot is happening in most of the price brackets

 

[R-T-B]

September 2022 to all the way to September 2024, you will find gpus at msrp without any issue, will be even lot cheaper than msrp second hand.

Gotta love that crystal ball you regularly pass off as fact.

 

[mb194dc]

That really says it all about how bad the GPU market has been lately. It's unprecedented in GPU history.

Lockdown was also unprecedented, when you're legally not allowed to go out, dropping big money on a GPU to game at home is much more justifiable.

 

[80251]

Gotta love that crystal ball you regularly pass off as fact.

I wish he would use that crystal ball to give us some hot stock tips or maybe some winners at Santa Anita next week.

 

[Lei]

I just want to mention that 3090 and 3080 shared the same GA102 size which was 628mm²
while 4090 and 4080 don't use the same chip. 4090 uses AD102 which is 611mm², but 4080 uses AD103 380mm² (40% smaller die size)

I think pricing will probably be similar to ampere .... $1500 for the 4090, $800 for the 4080,

 

[Frick]

Sometimes they did, but there have been lots of variation. The 8800 Ultra was more than $800 ($1100 today). Many cards on the highest end (the 6990, 7990, 590, 690, 780ti and so on) were $700+. The 980ti was the first top end (but not really top end as the Titans started to come up) product in a long while that was cheaper (before the price slash). At this point in time I'd say the $500 for the high end GPU cannot be considered normal.

And inflation is really important. $500 in 2010 is $662 now. GPU prices are way too high for sure, but there is no way in heck a high end GPU will ever be $500 ever again.

Found a nice graph from 2017.

Inflation adjusted price history of high end Nvidia GPUs tabulated - Graphics - News - HEXUS.net

m.hexus.net

So I'm very bored so I'm working on a more complete version of this. We'll see how it turns out.

 

[Lei]

This time price decrease is about 3% based on my tracking.
Taiwan is being the second highest number of new covid cases in last 4 weeks, after USA.
8% of Taiwan population got covid.

 

[Lei]

Better than I expected, may be because usd/cny exchange rate went from 6.4 to 6.6
They also changed some of the numbers from previous reports.
I'm also more inclined towards 3080 hence the 111%

News des 28./29. Mai 2022 | 3DCenter.org

Ethereum:

 

[Mac the Geek]

4080 ti would be 500 euros or less if the market was not a cartel.

It's not a cartel. It's a market with an insanely high technological barrier to entry. Intel is one of the biggest chipmakers on the planet, with multi-billion-dollar profits ever quarter; but for everything they're pouring into GPU development, they're still an insignificant presence in the discrete GPU market. That leaves AMD (who still hasn't recouped its losses over the last decade) and Nvidia (who never saw a dollar it didn't like) both selling everything they make, and being content to ride market share and milk profits.

If we want to see GPU prices come down, we have to hope that Intel figures out how to catch up with Nvidia and AMD and force some price competition.

 

[Chomiq]

Changes to cryptocurrency standards and processes including, but not limited to, the pending Ethereum 2.0 standard may decrease the usage of GPUs for Ethereum mining as well as create increased aftermarket resales of our GPUs, impact retail prices for our GPUs, increase returns of our products in the distribution channel, and may reduce demand for our new GPUs. We have introduced Lite Hash Rate, or LHR, GeForce GPUs with limited Ethereum mining capability and provided CMP products in an effort to address demand from gamers and direct miners to CMP. Beginning in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2022, most desktop NVIDIA Ampere architecture GeForce GPU shipments were LHR in our effort to direct GeForce to gamers. Attempts in the aftermarket to improve the hash rate capabilities of our LHR cards have been successful and our gaming cards may become more attractive to miners, increasing demand for our gaming GPUs and limiting our ability to supply our gaming cards to non-mining customers. We cannot predict whether our strategy of using LHR cards and CMP will achieve our desired outcome.

 

[MarsM4N]

Just found recently a word from the horses mouth (AMD Forums Moderator):

GPU Scalper Bots Are Still Dominating AMD’s Online Store

"There was some hope that the AMD website’s anti-bot measures would help, but an image posted by a team of scalpers shows that not to be the case. If the screenshot is to be believed, one bot managed to purchase the majority of GPUs offered in AMD’s latest European drop. ... That’s one of the cards dropping weekly in limited numbers on AMD’s official store. Try as they might, regular unassisted humans buyers are still being outclassed by machines. Following the most recent European GPU drop, one Redditor posted a screenshot allegedly posted in a stock tracker Discord chat (as spotted by Tom’s Hardware). The image shows the purchase stats for the Vuurvlieg AMD Companion script, one of many bots designed to snap up video cards whenever they go on sale. The bot in this case was able to buy 214 of the 350 GPUs that AMD allotted for the European market. It managed to buy almost every 6800 XT, of which there were only 50 available, and half of the 6700 XT units. These are just the numbers from a single bot. It’s possible no regular people managed to purchase cards — perhaps it was just bot vs. bot."

So, unless supply will exeed demand, AMD/Nvidia starts shuffle sales or the GOV steps in availability will not get any better. Sit it out or pay off the scalpers on eBay.

 

[Chomiq]

Just found recently a word from the horses mouth (AMD Forums Moderator):

GPU Scalper Bots Are Still Dominating AMD’s Online Store

"There was some hope that the AMD website’s anti-bot measures would help, but an image posted by a team of scalpers shows that not to be the case. If the screenshot is to be believed, one bot managed to purchase the majority of GPUs offered in AMD’s latest European drop. ... That’s one of the cards dropping weekly in limited numbers on AMD’s official store. Try as they might, regular unassisted humans buyers are still being outclassed by machines. Following the most recent European GPU drop, one Redditor posted a screenshot allegedly posted in a stock tracker Discord chat (as spotted by Tom’s Hardware). The image shows the purchase stats for the Vuurvlieg AMD Companion script, one of many bots designed to snap up video cards whenever they go on sale. The bot in this case was able to buy 214 of the 350 GPUs that AMD allotted for the European market. It managed to buy almost every 6800 XT, of which there were only 50 available, and half of the 6700 XT units. These are just the numbers from a single bot. It’s possible no regular people managed to purchase cards — perhaps it was just bot vs. bot."

So, unless supply will exeed demand, AMD/Nvidia starts shuffle sales or the GOV steps in availability will not get any better. Sit it out or pay off the scalpers on eBay.

It's an easy solution - don't buy from a scalper.

 

[The red spirit]

It's not a cartel. It's a market with an insanely high technological barrier to entry.

That's not an argument that it's not a cartel. Way too many components for decades have been very similar at similar prices points. it wouldn't be surprising if ATi/AMD and nV were a cartel.

Intel is one of the biggest chipmakers on the planet, with multi-billion-dollar profits ever quarter; but for everything they're pouring into GPU development, they're still an insignificant presence in the discrete GPU market.

They don't have anything discrete yet. But that's their problem. They have made so many prototypes and they seemingly function fine, some of them have reasonable performance too, but Intel just doesn't release anything discrete ever. They have been hyping up GPUs for like decade already and still refuse to release anything. No reasons were ever given why they don't do that. And no they aren't irrelevant either. Their iGPUs are the most used GPUs. They have won marketshare game a long time ago.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

214 of the 350 GPUs that AMD allotted for the European market.

350? For all of Europe? WTAF?

 

[MarsM4N]

350? For all of Europe? WTAF?

Yep, for the weekly AMD drop. Back in February. That's 1.400/month, for whole Europe. Pretty laughable.
But it doesn't include the cards distributed to resellers, which btw. get also snatched away by scalper bots.

Guy on reddit: "They really "dropped" 300 cards total? Are they placing the transistors by hand?"

 

[thesmokingman]

Why can't they have humans oversee this? How hard can it be to flag this as normal consumers need one, two, maybe three at the most? But 214 out 350 and no one notices until after the fact??

 

[PapaTaipei]

It's not a cartel. It's a market with an insanely high technological barrier to entry. Intel is one of the biggest chipmakers on the planet, with multi-billion-dollar profits ever quarter; but for everything they're pouring into GPU development, they're still an insignificant presence in the discrete GPU market. That leaves AMD (who still hasn't recouped its losses over the last decade) and Nvidia (who never saw a dollar it didn't like) both selling everything they make, and being content to ride market share and milk profits.

If we want to see GPU prices come down, we have to hope that Intel figures out how to catch up with Nvidia and AMD and force some price competition.

You clearly believe what you wrote. Doesn't make it more realistic.

 

[r9]

You clearly believe what you wrote. Doesn't make it more realistic.

It's demand and supply simple as that.
If people refused to pay anything above MSRP there wouldn't have been anything for amd/nvidia and the scalpers to milk but because people have more money that common sense happened what happened.

 

[KLiKzg]

When? In 1~2 years, if things do not deteriorate or change significantly.

 

[80251]

It's demand and supply simple as that.
If people refused to pay anything above MSRP there wouldn't have been anything for amd/nvidia and the scalpers to milk but because people have more money that common sense happened what happened.

But has scalping become an industry/business all to itself? It would seem so since it's possible to rent a bot to vacuum up videocards (among other things).

 

[MarsM4N]

But has scalping become an industry/business all to itself? It would seem so since it's possible to rent a bot to vacuum up videocards (among other things).

Yes, scalping is a business. As is everything you make profit from it. Basically everything "limited" will be scalped from now on, like limited edition sneakers.

But the lower demand changed GPU scalping. Now the only profit is in scalping Founders Editions directly from AMD/Nvidia, since they are cheaper (more profit). Just check eBay.
PC Graphics Card Scalping Has Died Off (For Now)

If the resellers would lower their prices, their cards would again be scalped away, I guess.

 

[lilhasselhoffer]

Yes, scalping is a business. As is everything you make profit from it. Basically everything "limited" will be scalped from now on, like limited edition sneakers.

But the lower demand changed GPU scalping. Now the only profit is in scalping Founders Editions directly from AMD/Nvidia, since they are cheaper (more profit). Just check eBay.
PC Graphics Card Scalping Has Died Off (For Now)

If the resellers would lower their prices, their cards would again be scalped away, I guess.

So....I don't agree. It's based on a pedantic reason, but the two things are entirely different.

Let me suggest it this way. There are currently brands that make nothing. They take their label, slap it on a box from a manufacturer, and sell it at a higher price. The next item off of the production line is indistinguishable, labelled with a more generic name, and goes to the same exact stores with a 20-30% price decrease (if only that). That said, these middlemen are not viewed as scalpers...


The business model that you are looking for is non-value added intermediary sales. That's a business model where trivial differences equate to large price differences. Scalping is a process by which people buy a retail good, introduce a large fee, and sell to another consumer due to shortages in supply.


The fun bit here is that people don't seem to understand a lot of things. Step one is to manufacture an EUV machine...and only one company does that. That 250k or much more expensive machine is then sent to a factory. The factory purifies silicon wafers, manufactures them into chips with the EUV machine, and then packages them for further assembly. Once the chips are manufactured, you've got an entirely different stream for components. Chip + component + assembly = finished good. Literally anything from a delay in the EUV hardware, to any step of the component manufacturing and sourcing, can cause critical shortages...and people make it their business to utilize this disconnect between supply and demand to their advantage.



As to the point of scalping being a business model...it isn't. It's only a financial option with large amounts of capital and severe market imbalance. That said, all markets adjust. I don't see current GPU prices going down until there's a glut of some component...and AMD/Nvidia decide to try and steal market share from one another. Thing is, they've both realized that's bad for profitability. As long as they maintain rough costing bands at MSRP, they have a license to print money. Making it better for consumers, by competing, is unlikely to ever be half as profitable as the status quo. That said, it's not like the ARC GPUs are going to disrupt this....sigh....