Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[lexluthermiester]

I expect it's a lack of investor confidence in the devs ability to pull it off. If they actually pull it off I expect it will help prices some.

Maybe. Likely even.

 

[Deleted member 202104]

Today is the one year anniversary of this thread. Just for history's sake on June 11 2022:

 

[Assimilator]

The Work, the Tech, and the Crime — /dev/lawyer

writing.kemitchell.com

 

[hat]

I wonder if the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos currently has anything to do with the current state of the worldwide economy in general. I'm no economic scientist, but things ain't looking good. Supply is down, demand is up, prices are continually rising, the sizes of goods are shrinking, and yet my wages stay the same... Perhaps people are pulling out of the market and storing whatever wealth (I use the term loosely) they have in safer places. Meanwhile, I will be holding on to what I have and sprinkling what little bit I can on top of that small pile while I hope for better days.

 

[trog100]

I wonder if the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos currently has anything to do with the current state of the worldwide economy in general. I'm no economic scientist, but things ain't looking good. Supply is down, demand is up, prices are continually rising, the sizes of goods are shrinking, and yet my wages stay the same... Perhaps people are pulling out of the market and storing whatever wealth (I use the term loosely) they have in safer places. Meanwhile, I will be holding on to what I have and sprinkling what little bit I can on top of that small pile while I hope for better days.

bitcoin does relate to the general markets.. though relatively speaking its holding up quite well.. eth for whatever reason is not doing so well..

nobody knows where this is gonna end up but things are not looking good..

trog

 

[trog100]

monday morning.. bitcoin now down to 24K with eth at 1.26K.. ouch..

trog

 

[Outback Bronze]

I wonder if the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos currently has anything to do with the current state of the worldwide economy in general. I'm no economic scientist, but things ain't looking good. Supply is down, demand is up, prices are continually rising, the sizes of goods are shrinking, and yet my wages stay the same... Perhaps people are pulling out of the market and storing whatever wealth (I use the term loosely) they have in safer places. Meanwhile, I will be holding on to what I have and sprinkling what little bit I can on top of that small pile while I hope for better days.

Yep good call,

Here Down Under is much the same unfortunately.

Will be interesting to see how low BTC will go.

 

[lexluthermiester]

monday morning.. bitcoin now down to 24K with eth at 1.26K.. ouch..

trog

Yeah, it's been a rough week.

Will be interesting to see how low BTC will go.

I don't see it dropping below 15k.

 

[trog100]

the general markets are all crashing.. crypto is just going down with them.. its possible money may get moved into bitcoin from all the more risky alt coins and even stocks but its impossible to predict so is how low it will all go..

trog

 

[R-T-B]

The Work, the Tech, and the Crime — /dev/lawyer

writing.kemitchell.com

wrong thread.

 

[dragontamer5788]

the general markets are all crashing.. crypto is just going down with them.. its possible money may get moved into bitcoin from all the more risky alt coins and even stocks but its impossible to predict so is how low it will all go..

trog

BTC going down 18% is far more in excess than the amounts of even high-risk tech sector has gone down today (ARKK is only -8%, SPY is only -3% on the day so far).

Something is going on in the cryptoworld. I dunno what. But Binance has "temporarily halted" BTC withdrawals, while Celsius has straight up stopped withdrawals all together. That does not speak to the confidence of the system right now. Something terrible is going on at Binance / Celsius, and it is spreading to the greater cryptocurrency world.

This is some crazy volatility, largely within the past hour or two. The big one, USDT / Tether, is at 99.85 cents, a little bit off the peg but not majorly off yet. BTC transactions / mempool is steadily rising, we're reaching a point where a lot of people are going to be moving BTC around for sure today. I'm expecting some kind of a big move, and given the "momentum" of the market right now, I'm guessing that's going to be a big move downwards.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

Yeah, it's been a rough week.

I don't see it dropping below 15k.

Are you confident enough in that prediction to recommend buying at $15K?

Does anyone know how to phrase a question on the web these days so that it doesn't sound like snark without specifically saying, "This is not snark"?

 

[dragontamer5788]

Apparently Tron DAO (USDD) stablecoin is losing its peg right now? That's probably the catalyst for today?

Between Binance, Celsius, and Tron DAO news, it seems like a lot of systems are reaching the point of cascading collapses. Tron DAO is very small, but if Tron DAO falls, maybe the price of BTC falls by another $1000 to $2000. If that happens, maybe Celsius gets margin-called, causing BTC to drop another $2000 or $3000 in addition to that. Then whatever is going on in Binance happens, which causes the price to fall again.

Domino effect, a collapse from a small coin (Tron DAO) might cause a greater collapse of more important, bigger systems (Binance?)

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EDIT: Bitfinex also halting withdrawals? Uhhh... that's not good for the system.

EDIT2: Seems like things have calmed down for now? I remember with Luna/Terra, it did take a few days from the first looks of trouble (Saturday) before everything went to crap (the next Wednesday). But that was a lot of bad events happening all at once today.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Are you confident enough in that prediction to recommend buying at $15K?

Does anyone know how to phrase a question on the web these days so that it doesn't sound like snark without specifically saying, "This is not snark"?

I'm somewhat confident. Two days ago I would have said 95%, but things have gone funky. Unlike other crashes, no one has ever halted transactions before(IIRC). DragonTamer is right, something hinky is going on. The market might fall lower than 15k on BTC. ETH is already below 1300 and still falling. Cryptocoin has become, more or less, a gamble at this point.

(your question did not seem snarky to me. choice of vocabulary and current market conditions made it seem like a very clearly honest inqury. no worries.)

 

[mb194dc]

Still not seeing why any crypto "currency" is worth anything. Other than to speculate and sell on to someone for more, classic pyramid scheme which is now imploding?

There are plenty of hard assets with limited supply you can buy to try and preserve wealth, protect against inflation.

Sure blockchain might be useful for some things, just not as a currency when anyone can simply create their own one backed by nothing.

 

[trog100]

interesting times..

trog

 

[dragontamer5788]

USDD holding at 98-cents right now.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536690108816031746

But these "defend the peg" tweets really remind me of UST / Luna.

 

[trog100]

wednesday morning.. bitcoin now at 20K with eth at 1K..

not a lot else to say really.. he he

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

wednesday morning.. bitcoin now at 20K with eth at 1K..

not a lot else to say really.. he he

trog

I think the days of Ethereum marching in step with Bitcoin(proper) might be over..

 

[dragontamer5788]

I think the days of Ethereum marching in step with Bitcoin(proper) might be over..

According to: https://amycastor.com/2022/06/14/th...-a-quick-map-of-where-we-are-and-whats-ahead/ and https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2022/06/13/celsius-goes-fahrenheit-451-and-number-goes-down/

Mike Burgersburg of Dirty Bubble Media has detailed many, many Celsius shenanigans that were glaringly visible just on public blockchains. In particular, Celsius is functionally insolvent in their ETH position. Only 27% of Celsius’ ETH is liquid — the rest is either stETH or staked in ETH2, making it unavailable for withdrawals for a year. [Dirty Bubble; Twitter]

This sounds like this whole "Celsius" issue is almost entirely centered upon the Ethereum community. stETH, ETH, and ETH2. As Celsius locks up, that necessarily breaks the price of ETH rather than BTC.

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EDIT: When we get to "macro" conditions, there's also the whole 0.5% rise of Fed Interest rate, which almost certainly demolished Luna/UST (or at least, was the straw that broke the camel's back). With a 0.75% rate hike expected this week, I'm guessing that a lot of crypto-enthusiasts are worried about those knock-on effects. Seems like cryptocoins are acting like a highly-speculative instrument that people run away from when other options become plausible. (Ex: bonds / CDs will almost certainly rise by 0.75% basis points, providing a safe place to keep money with a better return than anything we've seen in the last 10 years)

 

[lexluthermiester]

According to: https://amycastor.com/2022/06/14/th...-a-quick-map-of-where-we-are-and-whats-ahead/ and https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2022/06/13/celsius-goes-fahrenheit-451-and-number-goes-down/



This sounds like this whole "Celsius" issue is almost entirely centered upon the Ethereum community. stETH, ETH, and ETH2. As Celsius locks up, that necessarily breaks the price of ETH rather than BTC.

--------

EDIT: When we get to "macro" conditions, there's also the whole 0.5% rise of Fed Interest rate, which almost certainly demolished Luna/UST (or at least, was the straw that broke the camel's back). With a 0.75% rate hike expected this week, I'm guessing that a lot of crypto-enthusiasts are worried about those knock-on effects. Seems like cryptocoins are acting like a highly-speculative instrument that people run away from when other options become plausible. (Ex: bonds / CDs will almost certainly rise by 0.75% basis points, providing a safe place to keep money with a better return than anything we've seen in the last 10 years)

I wasn't talking about any of that. I was talking about how for last 8 years ETH has mirrored the ups and downs of BTC almost perfectly, at about 10% value. That long trend seems to have ended.

 

[dragontamer5788]

I wasn't talking about any of that. I was talking about how for last 8 years ETH has mirrored the ups and downs of BTC almost perfectly, at about 10% value. That long trend seems to have ended.

I'm arguing that ETH is dropping more than BTC because of the underlying mechanics of Celsius.

Celsius is the #1 story in the cryptocoin markets right now. As people realize that Celsius's holdings are ETH, stETH, and ETH2, that naturally will cause other people to dump ETH.

 

[lexluthermiester]

I'm arguing that ETH is dropping more than BTC because of the underlying mechanics of Celsius.

I'm not arguing, just making an observation. I didn't make the above statement as an invitation to start a fight.

 

[ppn]

I wasn't talking about any of that. I was talking about how for last 8 years ETH has mirrored the ups and downs of BTC almost perfectly, at about 10% value. That long trend seems to have ended.

I don't see what you see,. how is it 10% when the ETH/BTC chart shows variations betwen 0,057 - 0,087 over the last year, and now back to 0,05 and probably has to rollback all the way down to 0,014 - 0,0014, over the years seen peaks of 0,14 but you could state those days are long gone.

 

[trog100]

eth is definitely dropping more than bitcoin..

trog