Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[kapone32]

Bitcoin is down and Etherium is in freefall but GPUs are still too expensive.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

Bitcoin is down and Etherium is in freefall but GPUs are still too expensive.

Not really the discussion here, but downward price corrections always (well, almost) take time.

 

[trog100]

i think fear is the main driving force here.. fear aint entirely rational and does kind of cause over reactions..

trog

 

[Bomby569]

That thing went to bears, i only had 100€ (i really have no trust in crypto) but what a beating.

 

[trog100]

That thing went to bears, i only had 100€ (i really have no trust in crypto) but what a beating.

my little crypto stash is down around 45K compared to the peak.. `

i aint overly bothered cos until i want (or need) to cash it out i view it as monopoly money..

trog

 

[dragontamer5788]

i think fear is the main driving force here.. fear aint entirely rational and does kind of cause over reactions..

trog

Certainly not the only driver.

The fundamental driver this week is Celsius, and the possible insolvency here. If Celsius doesn't have people's money, its over, you can't just lock people's money away like that and expect people to remain remain calm/rational.

Celsius knows this. They wouldn't have locked away the funds unless something terrible is happening in their side of the market. The ETH / stETH / ETH2 crash we're seeing now (more so than BTC) is a rational act, as we await the public confirmation of whatever Celsius has learned.

 

[lexluthermiester]

I don't see what you see,. how is it 10% when the ETH/BTC chart shows variations betwen 0,057 - 0,087 over the last year, and now back to 0,05 and probably has to rollback all the way down to 0,014 - 0,0014, over the years seen peaks of 0,14 but you could state those days are long gone.

I don't know how to help you. It's plainly visible in market history maps. Of course, I am referring to the last 8 YEARS not months.

i think fear is the main driving force here.. fear aint entirely rational and does kind of cause over reactions..

trog

There is more going on than just market panic.

In other news, the following is NEVER a good sign;

A message from Coinbase CEO and Cofounder, Brian Armstrong

By Brian Armstrong, CEO and Cofounder

blog.coinbase.com

 

[trog100]

I don't know how to help you. It's plainly visible in market history maps. Of course, I am referring to the last 8 YEARS not months.


There is more going on than just market panic.

In other news, the following is NEVER a good sign;

A message from Coinbase CEO and Cofounder, Brian Armstrong

By Brian Armstrong, CEO and Cofounder

blog.coinbase.com

the world is in a general economic decline which could get quiet nasty.. how nasty is anybodies guess..

trog

 

[Bomby569]

Crypto needs to have it's own value, the truth is no one was using crypto for anything besides speculation. In a downturn market anything speculation is the first to get hit and the ones to get hit the most.

 

[lexluthermiester]

the world is in a general economic decline which could get quiet nasty.. how nasty is anybodies guess..

trog

While true, the cryptocoin market is taking a FAR greater tumble than any the stock markets.

 

[Bomby569]

While true, the cryptocoin market is taking a FAR greater tumble than any the stock markets.

the Luna thing created that difference, up until then it was one a small descent, not greater then the stock market.

 

[lexluthermiester]

the Luna thing created that difference, up until then it was one a small descent, not greater then the stock market.

That is incorrect. However I'm not going to argue with you.

 

[ppn]

It's plainly visible in market history maps. Of course, I am referring to the last 8 YEARS not months.

10% means it would be fixed to 0,1 with no deviation, but clearly the last 8 years has seen vaules between 0.014 and 0,14.

 

[lexluthermiester]

10% means it would be fixed to 0,1 with no deviation, but clearly the last 8 years has seen vaules between 0.014 and 0,14.

Context is important.

at about 10% value.

You were saying?

 

[dragontamer5788]

USDD holding at 98-cents right now.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536690108816031746

But these "defend the peg" tweets really remind me of UST / Luna.

USDD still hasn't restored its peg, but it hasn't gotten much worse, staying at 97.5 cents now.

The underlying coin, Tron (TRX symbol) is holding steady at 0.061 (off of 0.8 from last week).

 

[dragontamer5788]

The Latecomer’s Guide to Crypto Crashing — a quick map of where we are and what’s ahead

Your front row seat to the crypto apocalypse.

amycastor.com

Seems to be a well written overview of the current headwinds.

* TerraUSD -- Old news but it does set the "tone" for today.

* Celsius -- Already covered by this thread, but probably the biggest headwind today.

* Layoffs at Coinbase/Gemini, Crypto.com, BlockFi

* Crypto-stocks down: $COIN, $BITF, $HUT, $BTBT, $CAN, $RIOT, all down by significant amounts.

* Tether unwinding -- No collapse yet but large scale $Billion sized withdrawals from Tether have begun. (Maybe moving money to safer USDC pastures?)

* GBTC -- regulatory issues still prevent GBTC from becoming a proper ETF.

* Price -- BTC has dropped in price significantly this past week.

* Venture Capital / companies -- Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi, Nexo, Swissborg headwinds.

* MicroStrategy, Silvergate Bank, -- Big banks with lots of BTC. If these "whales" get nervous, they could sell a lot of BTC and the price drops even further.

* Mt. Gox -- The Japanese Police captured 140,000 BTC from Mt. Gox during its collapse. At some point, those BTC will be sold off. Could happen this year, maybe next. Its a selloff bombshell that's been a long time coming: its inevitable but the timing is simply unknown.

 

[Chomiq]

Boom:

 

[lexluthermiester]

ETH just dipped below $1k...

 

[80-watt Hamster]

Looks like a maybe a big holder just cashed out?

 

[dragontamer5788]

Looks like a maybe a big holder just cashed out?

Almost certainly. The question is why though.

Is this MicroStrategy's margin call? Is this Mt. Gox cashing out? Celsius bankruptcy? To understand the knock-on effects, we kinda need to know "who" did the cashing out.

EDIT: Or maybe the "why" doesn't matter? We know the entire cryptocoin world is highly leveraged, and that they were playing with people's trust with this "stablecoin" nonsense. A lot of people believe their stablecoins are "safe", except they're not under these circumstances. As people wake up to the fact that stablecoin holdings are disappearing, I can only imagine that a stampede out of stablecoins will happen, which will cause a greater decline.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

Almost certainly. The question is why though.

Is this MicroStrategy's margin call? Is this Mt. Gox cashing out? Celsius bankruptcy? To understand the knock-on effects, we kinda need to know "who" did the cashing out.

Welp, clearly folks were watching, but volume and price have leveled out over the past several hours. Below the "magic" 20K number, though. How did analysts arrive at that number, anyway?

 

[dragontamer5788]

Welp, clearly folks were watching

There's two ways I'm looking at this. Friday night is a very odd time to liquidate, no one else is watching.

However:

1. Liquidation events were happening _EVERY_ night this past week. Under a normal weeknight when people were watching, the HODLers would buy up Bitcoin at $20,000, thinking it was a good deal. Similarly, ETH-HODLers are buying up ETH at $1000, because round numbers are magic and people think of them as good deals.

2. Maybe its not so much that a whale unusually sold on Friday night (no more unusual than Thursday or Wednesday's declines). Maybe its just that HODLers weren't watching on Friday night because... people have lives and Friday is a big party time to stop paying attention.

Now that the "threshold" has been crossed, to $19k region, the $20,000 is no longer a support, but a barrier. Anyone scared is selling as the coin reaches closer to $20,000, because it looks like a nice point to sell now that we're suddenly below the magic number.

---------

Its psychology. Its a good point to buy as long as you're above the magic number. And its a good point to sell whenever you're below.

----------

Found this on Reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/vf6spv
Welp. One of my closer buddies (who dabbles in cryptocurrency) was on Gemini and Celsius.

 

[dorsetknob]

BitCoin crash's to under $20000

 

[trog100]

bitcoin went down as low as 17K but it does seem to have recovered.. the buy below 20K seems to have been true..

i aint gonna hazard a guess as to what happens next.. its an unknown..

trog

 

[the54thvoid]

Rinse repeat. It's the basis of yo-yo economics.