Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[p-o-db-o-q]

Eventually, there will be THE stablecoin, backed by nothing, with a forever fixed price. When such coin comes and when fiat gets replaced by cbdc, the fall of every asset that doesn't serve a purpose will be imminent and there will be no more competing cryptocurrency technologies and networks.

 

[MentalAcetylide]

pump and dump?

I must admit I'm guilty of this behavior myself. I pump myself up with food & then later hit the bathroom.
I still think crypto is a bad investment & only for whales with money to burn. Fun to play around with, but not something I would risk any significant amount of money on. Its hard to say where its going to go for certain. With the push towards globalism and consolidating markets, I think some form of it is going to end up becoming a single widely accepted currency.

 

[R-T-B]

this topic is about crypto, not gpu's

Even more reason the 40 series is out of place here then.

 

[The red spirit]

I don't touch the stuff myself, but casually observe from afar out of interest. BTC was named Bitcoin, after all, and has broadly been referred to as a cryptocurrency its entire existence. So it was presumably designed with the intent to function as such, and currently does to a limited extent. A stable valuation would (again, presumably) help that function.

If a given crypto[currency/coin/token] doesn't stabilize and become transactable or useful in some other fashion, then it's just a plaything in this bizarre trading game we're currently watching.

But is it really that bizarre? People pay top dollar for some Pokemon cards and other "valueless" stuff.

 

[R-T-B]

But is it really that bizarre? People pay top dollar for some Pokemon cards and other "valueless" stuff.

MtGox stood for "Magic The Gathering Online eXchange"

Because they literally started out trading physical cards. So yeah.

 

[lexluthermiester]

But you pay fees for every bank card transaction.

Not always, and that's not cash.

Let's get back on topic folks..

 

[Bomby569]

MtGox stood for "Magic The Gathering Online eXchange"

Because they literally started out trading physical cards. So yeah.

and nintendo started selling physical cards, what's your point

 

[The red spirit]

Not always, and that's not cash.

Let's get back on topic folks..

If you use MasterCard or Visa card, you pay a fee, it's just already included in product price. And it's not negotiable, you always pay. That's how those companies make money. It's little known fact, but fact nonetheless. Not to mention that banks themselves have various small fees everywhere and for almost anything, but that's besides the point I was trying to make.

 

[R-T-B]

and nintendo started selling physical cards, what's your point

I guees just that apparently valueless cards can have value and the tie in with crypto there is stronger than many realize.

But honestly there wasn't really a point. Just fun trivia supporting the prior statement.

I did admitedly forget this is the value thread again, though...

 

[dragontamer5788]

Eventually, there will be THE stablecoin, backed by nothing, with a forever fixed price. When such coin comes and when fiat gets replaced by cbdc, the fall of every asset that doesn't serve a purpose will be imminent and there will be no more competing cryptocurrency technologies and networks.

Yes. Its called a bank account. In fact, you can have many "stablecoins" today. Such as savings accounts, checking accounts, high yield savings accounts, money market accounts, and money market funds.

Oh, but the "stablecoin" of the cryptocoin world is high risk, as per economic theory. You cannot peg a currency with more yield than the risk-free rate... unless you take on risk. Even money market funds have more risk than savings accounts (and you get paid a higher rate on MMFs like VMFXX).

But yeah. Lets say I wanted something "pegged" to a dollar. I'll use VMFXX and SWVXX (these can only be bought/sold at 4pm during market hours however). If I needed something that was "faster", maybe I'd use a checking account instead.

----

Stablecoins are absolutely possible. But they're somewhat uninteresting, because all they've done is recreate risky bank accounts of the days of yore. To guarantee that these bank-accounts remain stable, you need strict government regulation ensuring that their assets are truly backed by something behind the scenes. Otherwise, the banks will lie to their customers.

 

[Bomby569]

Yes. Its called a bank account. In fact, you can have many "stablecoins" today. Such as savings accounts, checking accounts, high yield savings accounts, money market accounts, and money market funds.

Oh, but the "stablecoin" of the cryptocoin world is high risk, as per economic theory. You cannot peg a currency with more yield than the risk-free rate... unless you take on risk. Even money market funds have more risk than savings accounts (and you get paid a higher rate on MMFs like VMFXX).

But yeah. Lets say I wanted something "pegged" to a dollar. I'll use VMFXX and SWVXX (these can only be bought/sold at 4pm during market hours however). If I needed something that was "faster", maybe I'd use a checking account instead.

----

Stablecoins are absolutely possible. But they're somewhat uninteresting, because all they've done is recreate risky bank accounts of the days of yore. To guarantee that these bank-accounts remain stable, you need strict government regulation ensuring that their assets are truly backed by something behind the scenes. Otherwise, the banks will lie to their customers.

It's not at all reasonable to compare crypto to bank accounts, i don't even understand how people can make statements like these. Bank accounts are nothing, the value is the currency they held.

There can be a stablecoin, if there is trust in the system. The problem is all the shitcoins, the thefts, the scams. Bitcoin if it was the only crypto i bet could be a stable asset.

Pegging is stupid, crypto was created exactly to avoid the fiat problems.

 

[dragontamer5788]

It's not at all reasonable to compare crypto to bank accounts, i don't even understand how people can make statements like these. Bank accounts are nothing, the value is the currency they held.

There can be a stablecoin, if there is trust in the system. The problem is all the shitcoins, the thefts, the scams. Bitcoin if it was the only crypto i bet could be a stable asset.

Pegging is stupid, crypto was created exactly to avoid the fiat problems.

The USDC stablecoin "promises" that 1000 USDC == $1000 USD.

A savings account "promises" that 1000 in the bank account == $1000 USD. In fact, this trust is so strong, saying "I have $1000" implies that its in a savings account, because no one even bothers with physical cash anymore. The USD is already digitalized in practice.

The value of a bank account is the trust in our banks. When a bank says it has $1000 USD, no one denies that trust. If Celsius says it has 1000 USDC, do you trust it?

if there is trust in the system

There in lies the rub. How do you build trust?

Banks have built their trust over the past 100 years. Since the Great Depression, no one has lost money in their savings account. There are very few people left alive who even remember when banks lost our money. Even MMFs (the riskiest of the accounts I talked about earlier), have an incredible streak of reliability, only ~2 times they ever lost the peg in the last 100 years. A "stablecoin" loses its peg like every month or two, so its not like we can trust those pegs.

Meanwhile, all the hacks and rugpulls show that Cryptocoins are fully untrustworthy. Earning trust is the one and only legitimate thing about being a bank, and all these crypto-financial services are failing at it.

There's a reason why the historians are saying that "Cryptocoin community is speedrunning financial theory". Its because they keep making the same mistakes made 100 to 200 years ago, repeating all the mistakes of the financial systems of the past one by one. Its not "how" you hold money that's important, its the TRUST that's important. But no one is working on the trust part yet. So... I guess we'll just wait around and see how long it takes for the community to figure that out.

The Stablecoin dudes are at least on the right track. They leverage pre-existing trust with pre-existing institutions (IE: USD) to build a veneer of trust. But its not enough, because that veneer is broken during bankruptcies and other issues (see Celsius).

 

[Bomby569]

The USDC stablecoin "promises" that 1000 USDC == $1000 USD.

i think there's a miscommunication, i think there can be a stablecoin but not pegged to a fiat currency, because it's exactly to avoid it that crypto was created, it makes no sense, it's like having green energy produced with coal.

 

[dragontamer5788]

i think there's a miscommunication, i think there can be a stablecoin but not pegged to a fiat currency, because it's exactly to avoid it that crypto was created, it makes no sense, it's like having green energy produced with coal.

No one is buying cryptocoins for a stable value. That's my point. People have savings accounts for that. Or money-market accounts, or money-market funds if you wanna get a bit fancier / riskier than that. Or bonds if you want to get even riskier.

Yes, the cryptocoin community has rediscovered the thousand-year-old idea of asset securitization through some form of contract. The question is what they do with it, and whether it makes something useful. It doesn't actually matter what's on the contract per se. It can be a futures contract, a bond payment (either 1 year duration or even infinite duration), it could be a stock / equity, promise of future profits, corporate structures, preferred security (debt that slowly turns into equity), call options, CDOs, CDS that protects CDOs of CDOs or whatever. Then you can cut these instruments up, pass them around and make money with them.

You can even back it with a billion computers running a "mining" program. But the fundamentals kinda-sorta don't matter. Its about trust.

-------

The cryptocoin community is buying cryptocoins right now because they hope to "ride the next bull wave" in 5 years or whatever. As long as the community _wants_ volatility, they will get volatility.

 

[Bomby569]

No one is buying cryptocoins for a stable value. That's my point.

Every asset has speculation, even wheat.
Anyway sure until there is trust it's mostly speculation, but is not the end goal or shouldn't be, wasn't suppose to be

 

[trog100]

bad things seem to be happening in the crypto world.. how bad is yet to be seen..

trog

 

[dragontamer5788]

bad things seem to be happening in the crypto world.. how bad is yet to be seen..

trog

Seems like "FTX Token" is the center story happening today.

 

[RandallFlagg]

bad things seem to be happening in the crypto world.. how bad is yet to be seen..

trog

Something exploded, making a big mess. The least impacted crypto here is -4.75%. Maybe the start of a black swan event.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Something exploded, making a big mess. The least impacted crypto here is -4.75%. Maybe the start of a black swan event.

FTX is currently exploding.

Seems like "FTX Token" (FTT) was their token, and FTX is some kind of cryptocoin exchange.

 

[LFaWolf]

It is just a sell-the-news event. I doubt it is crypto wide selloff.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bina...e-ftx-token-holdings-after-recent-revelations
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cr...ces-plan-to-liquidate-entire-ftx-native-token

 

[lexluthermiester]

I doubt it is crypto wide selloff.

Except that's what seems to be happening.

 

[RandallFlagg]

It is just a sell-the-news event. I doubt it is crypto wide selloff.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bina...e-ftx-token-holdings-after-recent-revelations
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cr...ces-plan-to-liquidate-entire-ftx-native-token

Well, the image I posted earlier would say it is. 4-9% losses on 95%+ crypto is what that showed.

And now it does start to look like a black swan event. The vast majority of these are >= 10% loss (far right column is % down) :

 

[dragontamer5788]

Except that's what seems to be happening.

I thought the FTX issue was fixed now that Binance is buying them out?

Well, consider myself fully confused on today's price actions. If anyone has a better theory for what the hell is going on, I'm all ears.

EDIT: Wait, FTX Token is still dropping? Is FTX Token about to drag down Binance?

 

[lexluthermiester]

I thought the FTX issue was fixed now that Binance is buying them out?

I think something interesting is going on.

Binance to liquidate its entire holding of rival FTX’s native token

Changpeng Zhao intends to dump his entire holdings of FTT for risk management reasons right at a critical time, with Alameda Research saying it will buy everything “today” for $22 each to defend key support trend line.

fortune.com

 

[dragontamer5788]

I think something interesting is going on.

Binance to liquidate its entire holding of rival FTX’s native token

Changpeng Zhao intends to dump his entire holdings of FTT for risk management reasons right at a critical time, with Alameda Research saying it will buy everything “today” for $22 each to defend key support trend line.

fortune.com

Old news, by like... a few hours.

Current news is:

Crypto giant Binance agrees to buy rival FTX amid 'liquidity crunch' | TechCrunch

Binance has signed a letter of intent to acquire FTX, delivering a surprising twist following a public spat between the world's two largest crypto exchanges.

techcrunch.com

Hard to keep up. A lot of hour-by-hour news events going on right now.