NVIDIA Warns: GeForce RTX 40-Series GPUs Could be in Shortage in Q4

[AleksandarK]

During NVIDIA's recent Q3 earnings call, CFO Colette Kress cautioned about potential GPU supply constraints in the fourth quarter despite strong gaming sector performance. The gaming division posted impressive results, with $3.2 billion in revenue, representing a 15% increase from the previous year. However, Kress indicated that fourth-quarter gaming revenue might see a decline due to supply limitations, though she reassured that supply should stabilize in early 2025. The company is scaling back RTX 40-series production as it prepares for the anticipated launch of its next-generation Blackwell architecture, which is expected to debut at CES 2025. The RTX 50-series GPU lineup, particularly the flagship RTX 5090 and RTX 5080 models, is rumored to be unveiled during the January event.

"Gaming, although sell-through was strong in Q3, we expect fourth-quarter revenue to decline sequentially due to supply constraints." For consumers, this could mean limited availability and higher prices for gaming GPUs during the holiday shopping season. The shortage is expected to primarily affect RTX 40-series cards, with a particular impact on laptop GPU availability. However, NVIDIA plans to continue producing select RTX 40 mobile chips alongside the upcoming RTX 50 series, suggesting a slow transition between generations. The holiday season is upon us, so this shortage of current-gen models could cost the company some additional customers, as the customer spending usually holds until holidays and holiday discounts.



View at TechPowerUp Main Site | Source

 

[pavle]

How convenient for nvidia, even higher prices for already overpriced rtx4xxx line.

 

[bonehead123]

typical nGreediya....

Purposely cut production so prices for 2+ year old cards will rise even higher going into the holiday buying season (and clear out existing inventory in the process), THEN release the new cards in Q1/25 with even gobsmackingly ridiculous prices & clean up all over again....

I guess Jacket Man be gettin some (more) new leather for Xmas....

 

[napata]

typical nGreediya....

Purposely cut production so prices for 2+ year old cards will rise even higher going into the holiday buying season (and clear out existing inventory in the process), THEN release the new cards in Q1/25 with even gobsmackingly ridiculous prices & clean up all over again....

I guess Jacket Man be gettin some (more) new leather for Xmas....

Don't the new cards use the same node? Makes zero sense to keep making the old ones then. Every wafer wasted on 4000 series is one that could've been used for 5000 series. Then you have massive shortages on the new cards and people will be complaining about how Nvidia artificially creates scarcity to drive up prices.

In terms of greed the best action for Nvidia is probably to not waste any wafers on 4000 or 5000 series and let gamers rot. Gaming cards are pretty much charity at this point for Nvidia.

 

[Wasteland]

Don't the new cards use the same node? Makes zero sense to keep making the old ones then. Every wafer wasted on 4000 series is one that could've been used for 5000 series. Then you have massive shortages on the new cards and people will be complaining about how Nvidia artificially creates scarcity to drive up prices.

In terms of greed the best action for Nvidia is probably to not waste any wafers on 4000 or 5000 series and let gamers rot. Gaming cards are pretty much charity at this point for Nvidia.

It's easy to say that last bit, but no sensible business would turn its back outright on a $3 billion revenue stream, nor on a market over which it has near-monopoly control. Yes, Nvidia's revenue from the AI craze dwarfs everything else; no, that doesn't mean gaming's irrelevant. As the saying goes, gaming is the horse that brung Nvidia. And who knows how long the AI orgy will last?

Here I actually have to give Jensen at least a tiny bit of credit. He founded the company, so he has some stake in its long term health and reputation. This is in contrast to the generic 'gun-for-hire' CEO, who in many cases will respond to overwhelming incentives to min/max for short term gains. (i.e. if you can get a $40 million bonus today and a golden parachute when you're fired, you don't have to care what happens later.)

We complain, justifiably, about Nvidia's pricing scheme, but it could be far worse.

 

[Legacy-ZA]

Strange, all I read was "We are still trying to get rid of our RTX3000 cards, which in no way is even relevant in todays AAA gaming due to their VRAM limitation, but buy them, teehee/giggle"

 

[ThomasK]

Nvidia warning: overpay for an already overpriced product.

Hence why I'm not buying anything from them anytime soon.

 

[Waldorf]

probably gonna be worse for all those 40XX-SE cards, that come bundled with a tiny leather jacket.

@pavle
@bonehead123
so pls explain how msrp pricing is going to change, because they make less chips? so Nv will force shops to sell cards at more than sticker price?
right. guess i've missed that in the past 15y of buying gpus for me/builds.

@Wasteland
except its mainly because ppl bought 3/4 series, despite the prices, so why would you want to lower your income, just so we users are happy, make no sense for any business.

usually you buy what you can afford, no matter if its food/car/living quarters etc, but it seems for some, with pc parts they expect to get "lambo" perf, for the cost of a compact hatchback.
buy what your funds allow, or dont, if you dont like whats being offered.
but if those that own a 3/4 series 80 or 90 chip, should stop talking about unreasonable pricing, as "you" are part of the reason why nv thinks its ok to keep it that way, ignoring those that have one, but didnt pay for it (gift etc).

and you can see how happy i am with nv's tiers/pricing, as i still have a 2 series card...

 

[Dristun]

5000 series is guaranteed to never be in great supply either, because Jensen is not stupid to leave money on the table to please whining gamers while AI/Data Centre clients are queueing up to pay 3x-4x what gamers do for the same die size. I'd wager that AMD is going to do exactly the same and divert as much as they can to produce Instinct series cards.

 

[ChosenName]

How convenient for nvidia, even higher prices for already overpriced rtx4xxx line.

Just before Christmas too - it *has* to be a complete coincidence....

 

[freeagent]

What was great about the old world was that you could buy whatever you wanted, whenever you wanted, for a damn good price.

 

[TechBuyingHavoc]

Meanwhile, a 7700XT is available for $360, an excellent 1440p card. The same price tier as its predecessor, the 6700XT, also an excellent 1440p card.

 

[sephiroth117]

No one should purchase an inflated and supply constrained RTX 40 frankly, except if you can get a nice deal or second hand..

Wait for RTX 50, wrost case, the RTX 40 will be more available second hand and you'll get it far cheaper, best case you get an RTX 50 if the price is not insane (if we forget about the 600W, 2000$ rumored 5090)

 

[R0H1T]

Get'em while they're hot (artificial scarcity?) & what a joke this company is

 

[bug]

For consumers, this could mean limited availability and higher prices for gaming GPUs during the holiday shopping season.

Because consumers are always happy to pay more for a lineup that is about to bite the dust, right?
I mean, they can try...

 

[evernessince]

Just Nvidia greasing the runway for 5000 series price increases. If it's the same node it will be interesting to see how they justify the increased cost. Previously they used the increased wafer cost as an excuse even though that only represents a small fraction of the cost of a GPU.

In terms of greed the best action for Nvidia is probably to not waste any wafers on 4000 or 5000 series and let gamers rot. Gaming cards are pretty much charity at this point for Nvidia.

No, that would be suicide for Nvidia. AMD would pick up those sales by default.

usually you buy what you can afford, no matter if its food/car/living quarters etc, but it seems for some, with pc parts they expect to get "lambo" perf, for the cost of a compact hatchback.
buy what your funds allow, or dont, if you dont like whats being offered.
but if those that own a 3/4 series 80 or 90 chip, should stop talking about unreasonable pricing, as "you" are part of the reason why nv thinks its ok to keep it that way, ignoring those that have one, but didnt pay for it (gift etc).

You have this reversed. Nvidia wants to sell hatchback's at lambo pricing.

The 4070 ain't no lambo with it's 192-bit bus and 12GB of VRAM but it has a price tag for $600 USD.

The fact that people buy a product doesn't make the price justified. You ignore the fact that Nvidia abuses clear monopoly power in the market (they have more marketshare than Bell Systems did before they were broken up and more horizontal and vertical integration) to heavily encourage people to buy Nvidia products.

Following your logic, every company is completely justified in manipulating markets for their own gain at the cost of customers.

 

[Soul_]

Just dont buy it? Who cares..

 

[chrcoluk]

It wouldnt be in shortage if they didnt kill the production lines.

 

[Redwoodz]

They will continue to increase market prices until you people stop buying them. How long is it going to take? I predict the 5000 series will be increasingly power hungry, not that much better at gaming , and severely limited in stock. Choose your future.

 

[Random_User]

No, that would be suicide for Nvidia. AMD would pick up those sales by default.

That would be... should have been... if the AMD was actually sane, and interested in gaining the market share. So far, they are completely fine at playing nVidia game full speed. They went all in, with their Entrerprise/Data center HW, like Instinct/RoCm stuff.They even officially merging back Compute and Gaming GPUs, in order to have the excuse for selling gaming cards to the AI.
And the Strix Halo, will probably cost like a used car, since AI prefix. and obviously the production costs. And will be non-existant, like most , very attractive and amazing mobile stuff, which AMD has been paper-launching for the last four years.

But yeah. That's what AMD should had use this nVidia artificial scarcity, to undercut them at every point, with better and cheaper mid-end solutions. Even if it would have been on "older" but mature n6 or n5 nodes. The mid and low-end doesn't benefit from top nodes, anyway.
That would have caught the arrogant nVidia with the pants down.

You have this reversed. Nvidia wants to sell hatchback's at lambo pricing.

Spoiler

This has already been done by VAG/Audi. They sell the same platform, in dozens of "different" but undistiguishable shapes ald looks. Heck, they've been selling "fat" dual-engine Golfs, for a million bucks each.

Nope, Nvidia wants to sell a bicycle without tires/wheels for a price of a private jet.

They will continue to increase market prices until you people stop buying them. How long is it going to take? I predict the 5000 series will be increasingly power hungry, not that much better at gaming , and severely limited in stock. Choose your future.

And also wean the people from having own, gaming/multipurpose GPUs, and force them into client/streaming trend.

 

[Waldorf]

@evernessince
and even if they want to sell hatchbacks at lambo pricing, it only works if ppl buy.

again, assumption of users, of what a certain model nbr should have (specs/price), instead of seeing what you can buy with the amount of money you have, or not.
so maybe we should force starbucks too, to only charge 1$ like McD, because they sell overpriced coffee?

companies dont sell when there is no buyer, and change their product.
no one gets forced to buy stuff.
ignoring you spend how much for yours? right

 

[Vayra86]

This is the new marketing angle now: 'We will make the next gen EVEN LESS INTERESTING, so buy while stocks of ye olde stuff lasts!'

And in the meantime, the games look progressively more like horse manure as we go forward. The perf on UE5 is just painful, and its not looking good while doing so either.

I'm getting close to making my retro gaming official, honestly. The only interesting games that come out are those that do NOT focus on graphics, ironically.

 

[evernessince]

@evernessince
and even if they want to sell hatchbacks at lambo pricing, it only works if ppl buy.

You keep saying that it only works if people continue to buy but the whole point of monopolistic power is that people don't really have a choice. Think back on the Bell Systems monopoly or really any monopoly for that matter. The whole point is to force people to pay higher prices by gaining as much vertical and horizontal leverage as possible.

The things you are saying only apply in a competitive and free market. There are many GPU use cases where people HAVE to purchase a GPU. Streamers, medical imaging, professional work, AI, and much much more. You are making the assumption that consumers have bargaining power when in fact monopolies are designed to erode or eliminate that. If that wasn't bad enough, gaming is making up a smaller and smaller slice of Nvidia's total profits. Therefore the customer's ability to sway company decisions is increasingly small.

The actual number of people using their GPUs purely for gaming and nothing else is a minority of the market and even for those people, they need a GPU if they want a decent experience on their systems. Consider that Nvida's push for the use of Ray tracing in games has greatly increased GPU requirements. What this means is that the cost for a given performance level in new games has increased.

In essence you are saying that people should simply drop their hobby entirely if they don't like the pricing but that doesn't even remotely guarantee that prices will drop and only further proves how bad a state the market is in. Yes you as an individual might be able to not buy them but overall a monopoly is about capture percentage. In other words, the amount of people who have to buy or will begrudgingly buy for one reason or another.

 

[Frick]

Strange, all I read was "We are still trying to get rid of our RTX3000 cards, which in no way is even relevant in todays AAA gaming due to their VRAM limitation, but buy them, teehee/giggle"

"And no, they will not be cheaper"

 

[nguyen]

Well let hope they switch production to rtx 5000 months in advance, so that stock at launch is great, no chance for scalpers to ruin the launch experience