AMD Reports 2015 Third Quarter Results

[Xzibit]

Says the guy whose post hasn't mentioned AMD's financial statement.

I could just do what everyone else is doing and speculate about blame or find interesting things that were said, at the very least that I find interesting.

ZEN

Zen is on schedule for availability in 2016 and a first full year of revenue ramp in 2017. As you know, these microprocessor projects are multiyear projects, so the architecture or the execution team very much in place. I think we are pleased with the progress and we will continue to work hard to meet our objectives in that area.

Yes, so, Harlan, let me couch it this way. So as we stated in the financial analyst day, we had a target of 40% IPC performance of Zen over our previous generation. We believe we are on track for that.
Relative to process technology, we have taped out multiple products to multiple fabs in FinFET and we believe that they're also on track in terms
of overall ramp. So we continue to focus on both of those aspects, both the architecture and the process technology, but so far, so good.

ARM

I think it is fair to say for all of us that it has been slower to adopt in the server market, just due to some of the software and the infrastructure.
Relative to Seattle, we will be starting our first modest production shipments in the fourth quarter -- in this coming quarter this year and I view it
as a longer-term bet.

Nintendo NXT ?

Yes, so the way I would think about the enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom segment in terms of longer-term revenue growth, in 2016, as we
said, we will have additional semi-custom revenue ramping in the second half of 2016, so I think that would be one driver. And then as we go into
the medium term with the -- with Zen, that would be more of a 2017 revenue driver.

GPUs

I think one quarter is good progress. Now you will have to watch us over a number of quarters regain that graphics momentum.

And when I think about it, relative to the Fury launch we did have some supply constraints in the third quarter. They were -- they are largely solved in the fourth quarter, so I don't think there will be any supply constraints.
I think it's also fair to say that the graphics portfolio is quite broad, and so you will see us updating the entire portfolio over the coming quarters,
both on the OEM side and on the AIB side. So, again, it's a strategic effort. It's not a one- or two-quarter effort to regain our graphics share.

Now I've posted more info from earnings call then everyone else combined. Exclude BT..

 

[64K]

I could just do what everyone else is doing and speculate about blame (and keep repeating it every quarter) or find interesting things that were said.

ZEN






ARM



Nintendo NXT ?




GPUs

I would like to hear what Lisa Su thinks about AMD losing 400 million dollars last year and already losing over that this year and there's still Q4 ahead with an expected 10% further reduction in revenue. What are her plans when AMD runs out of cash sometime in 2016 because just producing Zen will mean very little if the chips just sit in the warehouse collecting dust because AMD can't get PC manufacturers to use their chips without selling them so cheap that they end up losing money on them when you factor in their overhead, excluding the R&D that went into Zen because that has already been paid for on borrowed money that they have no way to pay back in 2019. Will AMD be writing off millions of dollars in unsold Zen chips too?

How does Lisa Su plan to pay for the R&D for what will come after Zen? Borrow more money?

As it stands now, if AMD can't get PC manufacturers to buy more of their chips at a decent profit, then the best thing that AMD has going for it is Radeon Technologies Group and they could sell it to pay down some of their debt if they have to.

I would like to see Radeon Tech owned by a different corp that is not swirling down the toilet bowl though. The right company with plenty of cash that they didn't have to borrow could take back some of that 75%-80% discrete GPU market share that Nvidia has and light a fire under their ass too.

 

[Musaab]

Now comparing overclock ability is relevant.

All because of Schumis helmet.

This picture is from the days when AMD was Green before it turn Red

 

[geon2k2]

I can tell you what is the most valuable asset AMD has. It is their loyal fans who kept defending the brand for the last five years and kept buying their products, but AMD forgot about that and kept wasting their money on PR monkeys and over paid management, they loose key R&D people every day. with out AMD loyal fans AMD worth -2.2 B$.

Waw, this is sooo true.

 

[HumanSmoke]

As it stands now, if AMD can't get PC manufacturers to buy more of their chips at a decent profit, then the best thing that AMD has going for it is Radeon Technologies Group and they could sell it to pay down some of their debt if they have to.

How about they keep the Radeon group and just spin off the management division? It might not bring in any cash, but it should increase the value of the AMD immeasurably.

I would like to see Radeon Tech owned by a different corp that is not swirling down the toilet bowl though.

Me either, although if they decided to spin off the management division I doubt they'd have the acumen to even hit the bowl

Spoiler

 

[Arjai]

I may be an idiot, but, I'm gonna drink THIS Kool Aid and buy some dirt cheap stock.

The way I look at it, there's very little down to be had. AND a whole lotta up is possible.

I lost a bundle on GM. Stupid mistake. This though, I think they are undervalued.

Thursday, putting Money on it. Instead of something else, like beer or food or laundry soap....LOL

 

[FordGT90Concept]

You may be right that they are undervalued but who is (besides you, of course ) going to pour cash into a company that hasn't demonstrated they can get a positive return on investment? It's stocks are undervalued because the lion's share of investors already jumped ship. That does make AMD an excellent price for investing but there also isn't much of a light a the end of the tunnel to spur interest in investing. Even if Zen knocks it out of the park, it still takes time for Zen sales to pick up and, more importantly, the quarterly ink to turn from red to black. I don't think AMD's situation is so dire that it is impossible but if Zen fails to deliver or underperforms, AMD will be up shit creek without a paddle.

 

[Assimilator]

I could just do what everyone else is doing and speculate about blame or find interesting things that were said, at the very least that I find interesting.

We believe we are on track for that.

The fact that Su is refusing to make a definite statement on the 40% IPC increase should be setting off alarm bells already.

additional semi-custom revenue ramping in the second half of 2016

ARM is yet another example of AMD's board being completely clueless. AMD is one of the only 2 companies in the world to have an x86 license, which is effectively a license to print money if you do things right. AMD screwed that pooch so badly that they decided to get into ARM, at which point they found that nobody wants ARM chips in AMD's target market (desktops and servers) because ARM performance is s**t and all your apps have to be rewritten. Not to mention that every man and his dog is now making ARM chips, so the profit margin is razor-thin. Not to mention that the big ARM players, who are actually making money, have been designing ARM chips for a lot longer than AMD has, so they have all the viable ARM markets pretty much sewn up.

they are largely solved in the fourth quarter, so I don't think there will be any supply constraints.

High-end GPUs like Fiji are never massive revenue drivers because most people aren't willing to fork out $650. The money is in large quantities of low- to medium-end GPUs, and AMD hasn't refreshed their product lineup there in forever. Another large market for AMD is OEMs like Dell, and you know what OEMs care about? Not 8GB video memory, that's for sure. OEMs care about power consumption, an area where nVIDIA has been eating AMD's lunch for the past half-decade, and will continue to make gains as long as AMD keeps recycling.

you will see us updating the entire portfolio over the coming quarters

More rebranded Hawaii et cetera. Maybe these will have 16GB memory, which will only make them twice as useless as 8GB Hawaii cards.

 

[Basard]

Buy buy buy buy. Never been more sure in my life.

I was screaming that back in 97 or 98, maybe it was 99... Whenever the Athlon came out. stock jumped from 5 bucks a share to 70 in like 2 months!

But I didn't buy.... I was like 16...

 

[64K]

I was screaming that back in 97 or 98, maybe it was 99... Whenever the Athlon came out. stock jumped from 5 bucks a share to 70 in like 2 months!

But I didn't buy.... I was like 16...

AMD's peak was April 2000 at $43.75 per share.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AMD+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true}

 

[Arjai]

You may be right that they are undervalued but who is (besides you, of course ) going to pour cash into a company that hasn't demonstrated they can get a positive return on investment? It's stocks are undervalued because the lion's share of investors already jumped ship. That does make AMD an excellent price for investing but there also isn't much of a light a the end of the tunnel to spur interest in investing. Even if Zen knocks it out of the park, it still takes time for Zen sales to pick up and, more importantly, the quarterly ink to turn from red to black. I don't think AMD's situation is so dire that it is impossible but if Zen fails to deliver or underperforms, AMD will be up shit creek without a paddle.

If somebody decides to swoop in and buy 'em, that Licence is gonna cost top dollar.

I am not counting on that, or Zen, to suddenly make the stock go skyrocketing. I plan to hold it for a good five+ years. By then, it's either gone, or gone up.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

It could go down further and not be gone by becoming a licensor (e.g. just makes money off of Intel licensing).

 

[Arjai]

It could go down further and not be gone by becoming a licensor (e.g. just makes money off of Intel licensing).

I am willing to see what happens, and possibly gain from it. I could easily throw a Hundred away at the bar. Would rather give this a try.

About 50 shares could add up, potentially. But either way no big loss, either.