DRAM Output in 2018 Planned for Continued High Pricing - TrendForce

[Raevenlord]

DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, has come forward with the expected announcement that DRAM output in 2018 likely won't be enough to fully satisfy supply. This has been the case for some time now. However, what started with simple insufficient output that could contain the explosion of DRAM capacity in smartphones seems to now be turning into a conscious decision by the three top memory manufacturers. Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix are seemingly setting output at a lower than required level so as to artificially inflate pricing due to low supply. TrendForce themselves say so, in that these suppliers "(...) have opted to slow down their capacity expansions and technology migrations so that they can keep next year's prices at the same high level as during this year's second half. Doing so will also help them to sustain a strong profit margin."

DRAM production is expected to increase by 19,6% in 2018; however, this ratio is lower than the expected growth in demand, which is being pegged at 20,6%. This means 2018 is likely to see increased constraint in the supply channels (whereas 2018 was actually expected to see a slight relief in supply issues). This means that pricing will either stabilize or tend to increase from current levels. To be fair, semiconductor production isn't as simple as hitting a "increase production by 10x" button; reports say that all three players are contending with insufficient room to expand output on their production lines, and getting a new production facility online isn't a trivial effort - neither in funds, nor on time. However... All involved companies would much rather keep prices as they are than see them being brought down by oversupply.



View at TechPowerUp Main Site

 

[xkm1948]

Maybe I should have sold half of RAM to help pay for a new CPU+board. Hmm

 

[dj-electric]

This just goes on the annoying list of things you can't do anything about.

As customers, have have 0 control over the pricing. No one can just open a DRAM factory and make chips for the whole world at half the price.

Its a rigged game. An extremely annoying one.

 

[Gmr_Chick]

This just goes on the annoying list of things you can't do anything about.

As customers, have have 0 control over the pricing. No one can just open a DRAM factory and make chips for the whole world at half the price.

Its a rigged game. An extremely annoying one.

Agreed. While it's an exciting time for CPUs at the moment, having to buy RAM for a new build/ upgrade is brutal, especially if it's anything more than 8 GB.

 

[StrayKAT]

Luckily, I don't do anything that needs more than 16GB (two sets/brands of 16GB). I could still use these sticks if I plan on moving to Ryzen or one of the new Intel chipsets. They're 2666, but that doesn't bother me .And I think I've found my temporary NAND/SSD alternative in Optane (seriously lol).

 

[Gmr_Chick]

Luckily, I don't do anything that needs more than 16GB (two sets/brands of 16GB). I could still use these sticks if I plan on moving to Ryzen or one of the new Intel chipsets. They're 2666, but that doesn't bother me.

Thank you for reminding me -- I forgot to mention also that the price of RAM also goes up the faster it is. Like, if I wasn't so concerned that my WIP Ryzen build would perform crappy with slower RAM, I'd just pop in 16 gigs of 2666 speed RAM and call it a day, lol. Seriously. Hell, even 2400. But not 2133. That's a bit TOO slow.

 

[noname00]

This also happened with hard drives six years ago. Floods stopped production, supply depleted, prices rose, production got back to normal, prices didn't.

 

[Valantar]

I do hope the EU and the FTC are johnny-on-the-spot with the antitrust fines this time around, perhaps we might nip this in the bud?

 

[evernessince]

This just goes on the annoying list of things you can't do anything about.

As customers, have have 0 control over the pricing. No one can just open a DRAM factory and make chips for the whole world at half the price.

Its a rigged game. An extremely annoying one.

Actually there is something you can do about it. File a complaint, in the EU price fixing is heavily regulated. If you live in the USA though you are screwed since the government has let giant monopolies form and allowed companies to consort all to the loss of the average citizen. Only advice I can give to those in the states is stop electing business man and lobbyists with obviously dubious motives to office.

 

[Gmr_Chick]

Only advice I can give to those in the states is stop electing business man and lobbyists with obviously dubious motives to office.

Far more easier said than done, unfortunately.

 

[natr0n]

They should stop making fucking cell phones for a month.

 

[StrayKAT]

Actually there is something you can do about it. File a complaint, in the EU price fixing is heavily regulated. If you live in the USA though you are screwed since the government has let giant monopolies form and allowed companies to consort all to the loss of the average citizen. Only advice I can give to those in the states is stop electing business man and lobbyists with obviously dubious motives to office.

Well, the funny thing is the current "business man" with the highest office in the land actually put a ban on some lobbies and prevents anyone who's ever worked for his administration to have a lobbying job for 5 years if they leave their government job. And he donates his salary. That's more than most have done. So on a federal level, it's not so bad right now. It's State governments that don't worry about this.

Nor does he get much credit for it btw (he's "literally Hitler" and all that ).

 

[Easo]

This does look like price fixing... Will something come out of that? Who knows, but I hope they do get slapped with some nice fines. Preferably without years and years of lawsuits.

 

[InVasMani]

Well, the funny thing is the current "business man" with the highest office in the land actually put a ban on some lobbies and prevents anyone who's ever worked for his administration to have a lobbying job for 5 years if they leave their government job. And he donates his salary. That's more than most have done. So on a federal level, it's not so bad right now. It's State governments that don't worry about this.

Nor does he get much credit for it btw (he's "literally Hitler" and all that ).

Yeah, but I want the national deficit to quadruple so I can get free stuff NOW... housing crisis "terrible" national deficit ok welcome to America thinking not required Bernie or bust or bankrupt by his wife's bailout money bonus. Oh well thank god we still have RAMBUS to save the day.

 

[wrathchild_67]

Well, the funny thing is the current "business man" with the highest office in the land actually put a ban on some lobbies and prevents anyone who's ever worked for his administration to have a lobbying job for 5 years if they leave their government job. And he donates his salary. That's more than most have done. So on a federal level, it's not so bad right now. It's State governments that don't worry about this.

Nor does he get much credit for it btw (he's "literally Hitler" and all that ).

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/24/15681368/white-house-lobbyists-rule-bad

But go ahead and put your head back in the sand, or up Trump's ass. Your comment literally had nothing to do with the article.

 

[StrayKAT]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/24/15681368/white-house-lobbyists-rule-bad

But go ahead and put your head back in the sand, or up Trump's ass. Your comment literally had nothing to do with the article.

I'll look more at the article. It interests me. At least it acknowledges that this was a good step. I'm sorry if it somehow already broke down, but I didn't know.

As for the thread: The post I quoted mentioned lobbies. Therefore I talked about changes on lobbies in Washington. What DOESN'T have anything to do with it is attacking me on some personal level.

I don't have time to tell you my life story, but since you're interested in "me": I voted for Hillary. The fact that I can give credit to the guy at times is not putting my head in the sand. It's quite the opposite. I'm proud of that. I'm not out for blood at a moment's notice like you are.

edit: Article points out the fishiness of the waivers, but I think it needs more than that. I thought it was going to be longer.. I guess I didn't need to hold off reading it, after all.

 

[Th3pwn3r]

This just goes on the annoying list of things you can't do anything about.

As customers, have have 0 control over the pricing. No one can just open a DRAM factory and make chips for the whole world at half the price.

Its a rigged game. An extremely annoying one.

Heh, welcome to our world. It's the same with insurance companies, medical care here in USA and also the diamond market...all are controlled and bullcrap.

What's messed up is that if they take a hit at their factory and things go poorly they don't even lose, they just hike up prices to offset their losses, gas companies all do it as well.

 

[Prima.Vera]

Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix are seemingly setting output at a lower than required level so as to artificially inflate pricing due to low supply. TrendForce themselves say so, in that these suppliers "(...) have opted to slow down their capacity expansions and technology migrations so that they can keep next year's prices at the same high level as during this year's second half. Doing so will also help them to sustain a strong profit margin."

This. Unfortunately there is nobody in the world that is able to control those Cartels and Mafia type of business. In the end, all corporations are driven by infatuated greed and callous hypocrisy.

 

[eidairaman1]

They should stop making fucking cell phones for a month.

I say improve on older models.

Im on a SM-G900T which is fully unlocked. I have no point in going to another phone that is 800-1000 bux when i got this one 250 brand new...

 

[Rehmanpa]

All I know is that I should invest in ddr manufacturing for a living

 

[R0H1T]

Actually there is something you can do about it. File a complaint, in the EU price fixing is heavily regulated. If you live in the USA though you are screwed since the government has let giant monopolies form and allowed companies to consort all to the loss of the average citizen. Only advice I can give to those in the states is stop electing business man and lobbyists with obviously dubious motives to office.

Except you can't make companies increase their capacities or raise production.
Price fixing can only be established when in fact there is tangible proof of collusion, but when companies tacitly agree to not increase production or capacity there is very little FTC or EU can do about it, nothing to be precise.
Seeing how they got caught last time around I'm willing to bet there is no collusion but you "scratch my back & I'll do yours" kind of a unwritten agreement.

 

[Relayer]

Why not, that's what OPEC does. This is what happens when you over rely on imports.

 

[silentbogo]

They should stop making fucking cell phones for a month.

They should stop making smartphones with 6GB RAM for a few years. That would fix at least half of the supply issue.

 

[techy1]

just like with HDD's - they had one stupid excuse to rise prices x3 times - and prices never gone back down again. SSD's also recently started to "inform" us about "shortages" and its "causes"... now everytime new iphone or even samsung S-line phones are released - I get always "informed" about how tights the supply of various components are and that this shortage will increase any PC component price

 

[Th3pwn3r]

I

I say improve on older models.

Im on a SM-G900T which is fully unlocked. I have no point in going to another phone that is 800-1000 bux when i got this one 250 brand new...

Ha, I have a BLU phone I bought on Amazon for $50.00. it works pretty good, its hard to believe understand why people are silly enough to buy a phone that's nearly a $1000 dollars.