Editorial AMD Chip Manufacturing to Lay Solely With TSMC On, After 7 nm - And Why It's not a Decision, but a Necessity

[R0H1T]

What efficiency? What? What?! :-D

Again: what?!
Server CPU market is worth around $18bln yearly. AMD expects to get maybe 10% of that in next few years, so around $2bln.
Nvidia's revenue for 2017 was $10bln.

Short term - surely not. Seriously, the demand for GPUs is the same - no matter how many companies make them. If TSMC becomes a monopolist for GPU chips, they can choose who to work with. NVidia has higher margins, so it's likely they'd be paying more for chips. So in short-term going 100% NVidia would make sense.

Long-term is different, because of diversification. It's better to have more clients that make different products. This is a reason why staying with AMD makes sense... unless TSMC is already negotiating with Intel.

What? https://www.nextplatform.com/2018/03/01/server-market-booms-last/
That's $18 billion a quarter (probably last year) & not annually! The sever market could actually top $100 in a year or two easily, where do you think Chipzilla's $6 ~ 7 billion (annually) in operating income from DCG came from?

 

[notb]

What? https://www.nextplatform.com/2018/03/01/server-market-booms-last/
That's $18 billion a quarter (probably last year) & not annually! The sever market could actually top $100 in a year or two easily, where do you think Chipzilla's $6 ~ 7 billion (annually) in operating income from DCG came from?

You might be thinking about server market value as a whole, not just CPUs. Intel's yearly revenue is $60bln (from all segments) and they have ~99% of server CPU market.

 

[R0H1T]

You might be thinking about server market value as a whole, not just CPUs. Intel's yearly revenue is $60bln (from all segments) and they have ~99% of server CPU market.

They don't, perhaps 99% of x86 server market but not the overall server CPU market. That's just gross exaggeration.

 

[StrayKAT]

They don't, perhaps 99% of x86 server market but not the overall server CPU market. That's just gross exaggeration.

It's hard to find numbers (I'm sure someone else can do better), but apparently IBM took about 14% in 2015. It couldn't have changed that much since.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/06/01/where-does-ibm-rank-in-software-and-hardware.aspx

edit: This is after they sold the x86 division to Lenovo btw.. so these are all Power based.

 

[R0H1T]

It's hard to find numbers (I'm sure someone else can do better), but apparently IBM took about 14% in 2015. It couldn't have changed that much since.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/06/01/where-does-ibm-rank-in-software-and-hardware.aspx

edit: This is after they sold the x86 division to Lenovo btw.. so these are all Power based.

Yes that's why it sounds implausible, there's also SPARC & AMD (just recently) mind you, so even at Intel's peak 99% sounds dubious.

 

[notb]

They don't, perhaps 99% of x86 server market but not the overall server CPU market. That's just gross exaggeration.

Yes, I meant x86. Should have stated this clearly.
Precisely I said "server CPU market is worth" and that's how analysts talk about it. That's because you can actually price / buy x86 CPUs.
This market is estimated at ~$18bln and Intel has 99%. AMD has 1%. Of course this will change in 2018 figures.

Yes that's why it sounds implausible, there's also SPARC & AMD (just recently) mind you, so even at Intel's peak 99% sounds dubious.

AMD is the 1% (2017 figures!). Other architectures aren't included, since you buy whole systems.

It's hard to find numbers (I'm sure someone else can do better), but apparently IBM took about 14% in 2015. It couldn't have changed that much since.

For 2017 IBM reported $6.5bln revenue from hardware - that's POWER, z and storage solutions.
These are whole machines, so we'd have to compare them to how much the server market is worth. I'm seeing very different estimations, but mostly in the $80-100bln range, so IBM's share would be around 6-8%.

 

[R-T-B]

Randoid fantasies predate Ayn Rand. Every generation moans and groans about how the best and brightest have disappeared/been sidelined by inferior folk. In reality, the banning of lead products like gasoline and paint has improved IQ and behavior. Lead has been an extremely long-standing brain drain on humanity. For example, the Roman empire's massive problems, often nebulously attributed to "decadence" were, in large part, due to the effects of lead poisoning. We're not out of the woods with lead poisoning by any means. It still strongly affects inner-city folk, due to dust from demolition and old housing. It is a persistent pollutant in soil that goes into crops like grapes in the US. China, India, and others still mismanage it (polluting soil and food via the soil). The other reality is that corruption is neither new nor stamped with an expiration date (aside, perhaps from the aforementioned takeover by rational AI).

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View attachment 106128

Don't let facts get in the way of a good moan man...

Seriously... You are dealing with people who treat "altruism" as a cuss word. Give up.

 

[StrayKAT]

Don't let facts get in the way of a good moan man...

Seriously... You are dealing with people who treat "altruism" as a cuss word. Give up.

Ayn Rand, I sort of understand (her American followers.. not so much). She was a young Russian girl who was traumatized by a supposed "altruistic" worker's movement that eventually did things like this:



For every opposite action, etc., etc..

This kind of horror had it's extreme counterpart in unfettered "selfishness". It created people like her who celebrated the exact opposite ideal of communism.

Both were wrong though. True altruism - as well as individuality (what the so call Rand adherents want) is elsewhere. My 2c.

 

[R-T-B]

Ayn Rand, I sort of understand (her American followers.. not so much). She was a young Russian girl who was traumatized by a supposed "altruistic" worker's movement that eventually did things like this:

View attachment 106137

For every opposite action, etc., etc..

This kind of horror had it's extreme counterpart in unfettered "selfishness". It created people like her who celebrated the exact opposite ideal of communism.

Both were wrong though. True altruism - as well as individuality (what the so call Rand adherents want) is elsewhere. My 2c.

I hear you. Like most things, moderation is probably a good thing here.

Thing is it's really OT in this thread.

 

[StrayKAT]

I hear you. Like most things, moderation is probably a good thing here.

Thing is it's really OT in this thread.

True enough.. Admittedly, that's a hefty "2c" I originally got us off the track with.

 

[mtcn77]

I hear you. Like most things, moderation is probably a good thing here.

Thing is it's really OT in this thread.

Seems like the "People's State of America" has become incumbent on external aid. Oh, the irony of Rand... Such an exacting call on SJW's and griefers.

 

[R-T-B]

Seems like the "People's State of America" has become incumbent on external aid. Oh, the irony of Rand... Such an exacting call on SJW's and griefers.

Can you call it quits now? Everyone has agreed it's OT. Not to mention you aren't even making much sense anymore.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Thread title makes it sound like AMD is sourcing 7 nm from someone else (Samsung?) and that post-7 nm, AMD's contracts will go exclusively to TSMC. Is there actually confirmation for the former? If so, what isn't being made at TSMC? The latter seems kind of silly because post-7 nm seems like a fantasy at this point.