Intel At Least 5 Years Behind TSMC and May Never Catch Up: Analyst

[londiste]

Well we know that Kirin 980 & A12 are coming out this year IIRC, between them I bet the volumes are enough to outpace & outsell any other semiconductor behemoth, excluding Intel.

Both are small chips on the SOC version of the node. A12 is 83mm² and Kirin 980 is said to be comparable size. Samsung might also want in on the same action as their 7nm is late. Phones with these are expensive pieces of hardware. They can absorb a high cost of the SOC if they want/need to.

On the high performance variant, there is Vega 20 - samples of which were ready in late spring but we do not know much about - and Zen2 has to be already manufacturing if they really will release in 2019H1. I would suspect Nvidia is already manufacturing something next as well or is preparing to.

There is a lot of contention and I honestly suspect the prices might be high whether yields are OK or not.

 

[john_]

Supply Update | Intel Newsroom

 

[Alexandrus]

Clearly, an analyst who understands little or nothing of the technological process, since there is no direct comparison between Intel's 10nm lithography and TSMC's 10nm, if the later even exists.

 

[dwade]

They're just trying to bump their AMD stocks higher LMAO. It's the same with these articles where AMD "may" get X amount of market share, AMD "may" do this, AMD "may" do that.

 

[Frick]

However:
Aaannnd... feel free to disregard anything this guy says on technical side of things or predictions.
Intel is expecting to get to 7nm around the same time TSMC/Samsung get to 5nm. That has been the plan all along including before their issues with 10nm.

I would think that what Intel's expecting is irrelevant at this point. Sub-10nm brings new challanges yet again and we'll know how it goes for them only when they actually reach that point.

 

[notb]

They're just trying to bump their AMD stocks higher LMAO. It's the same with these articles where AMD "may" get X amount of market share, AMD "may" do this, AMD "may" do that.

Yup. AMD "may" reach 30%, but the articles never say how much share they have now. So there's just no way to validate these forecasts.
If AMD has such great results, they should us give us precise data. At this point they're even unwilling to separate CPU and GPU - we all know why...

 

[R-T-B]

They're just trying to bump their AMD stocks higher LMAO. It's the same with these articles where AMD "may" get X amount of market share, AMD "may" do this, AMD "may" do that.

Why analyze anything? Real men invest blindly. /s

 

[hat]

Why analyze anything? Real men invest blindly. /s

They also use real cores.

 

[R-T-B]

They also use real cores.

Like ET. Thanks for putting that image in my head, mailman!

 

[hat]

Like ET. Thanks for putting that image in my head, mailman!

u wot m8

I was referring to the "real men use real cores" statement/ad AMD did. How the hell did you get ET out of that? And @TheMailMan78 is that way --->

 

[R0H1T]

Yup. AMD "may" reach 30%, but the articles never say how much share they have now. So there's just no way to validate these forecasts.
If AMD has such great results, they should us give us precise data. At this point they're even unwilling to separate CPU and GPU - we all know why...

Probably because it's nearly impossible to estimate that, for instance does Intel (or AMD) reveal how many chips they sell each quarter, their clientele, segment wise breakdown et al?

 

[hat]

I wonder what the sales figures actually represent. Nobody directly buys processors from Intel or AMD. There's a supply chain of sorts, but I don't know how long it is... I wonder if unsold processors sitting on the shelf as of yet still count as sold, because Intel did sell them to somebody already, just not the end user.

 

[R0H1T]

I wonder what the sales figures actually represent. Nobody directly buys processors from Intel or AMD. There's a supply chain of sorts, but I don't know how long it is... I wonder if unsold processors sitting on the shelf as of yet still count as sold, because Intel did sell them to somebody already, just not the end user.

I believe the big cloud providers Google, MS, Amazon or the likes of FB, Twitter buy most of their chips directly.

 

[hat]

I believe the big cloud providers Google, MS, Amazon or the likes of FB, Twitter buy most of their chips directly.

Could be if they had a large enough order...

 

[HTC]

I believe the big cloud providers Google, MS, Amazon or the likes of FB, Twitter buy most of their chips directly.

I'd expect so: i'm guessing the likes of 500+ chips per order (perhaps even 1000+), which obviously are very VERY expensive. Seriously doubt any supply chain has the amount of CPUs required for this due to the prices involved plus it would be advantageous to both the buyer and the seller to have the sale directly:

- the buyer because there may be potential "discounts" to have that big an order of CPUs, not to mention the elimination of "the middle man" in the deal, which further brings the price down
- the seller because when they do make a sale, even with "discounted prices", they make a heck of a lot of money really fast in what would otherwise take a long time to achieve