TSMC Trembles Under 7 nm Product Orders, Increases Delivery Lead Times Threefold - Could Hit AMD Product Availability

[notb]

You are assuming a mountain here. Its not to hard to get a fab contract

No? Get one.

AMD is not going to tell us how long they have been working with samsung.

Of course. But given how AMD normally does their business, that would be very surprising.
They're building the company value ("the hype") on this kind of partnerships.
During every Ryzen launch AMD shows a long litany of OEM representatives praising the new product and saying they'll be happy to use it in their PCs. And it happens months later. Or never.

So to assume Nvidia is going to be the only player with samsung is nonsense. Samsung wants more business and AMD will be right there.

By all means: Nvidia will not be the only Samsung fab client. Intel is there as well. And so could be AMD.
But other that that it's the same story as with TSMC: AMD sells cheaper products and they can pay less for a wafer.

Well... there's one big difference. Samsung, unlike TSMC, also makes chips. They are the largest client of their in-house semiconductor manufacturing business.
And the leftover capacity is nothing compared to TSMC potential. In other words: AMD needs TSMC.

You don't have to be the highest bidder to get product out.

Of course you do.
Why would TSMC conciously sell to a client who pays less than others?
It makes no sense and it's actually illegal. You can go to jail for that.

AMD has been in bed with TSMC in 7nm and the only company making the bigger chips.

AMD fans like to state how TSMC and AMD are in great partnership. They aren't. TSMC is selling something. AMD is buying. That's it.
If anything, AMD had MUCH tighter connection with GF. During Ryzen 1000 launch AMD fans praised that. GF is great, innovative. AMD is great, fabless, innovative. Intel has supply problems because they aren't fabless. BLA BLA BLA
2 years forward no one remembers what GF is.
Now AMD is the company troubled with supply issues, because they're 100% dependent on a single supplier that - unlike in the GF era - they can't control or at least get a high priority.

You really think all those EPYC chips are not going to be at play?

All which EPYC chips? AMD has 3-4% of datacenter market share.
And companies buy servers for 3+ years - not replace them every generation like a lot of people on this forum.

 

[Hyderz]

i went with intel because of the price high tag on available online and also retail price of 3900x is never available when i want to buy one.

 

[evernessince]

i went with intel because of the price high tag on available online and also retail price of 3900x is never available when i want to buy one.

This doesn't make a lot of sense, Intel doesn't have a 12 core alternative. The closest they have is the 9900K, in which case you could have easily have gotten a 3700X instead. You can then drop in a Zen2+ processor next year. The only people who should be dropping $500 on a 9900K are people who need every last frame. Otherwise a 3700X is a far better option. Not just because it's much cheaper but also because it wins in applications by a wider margin then it losses in gaming. The desktop experience is snappier then a 9900K. It also doesn't require an expensive cooler to keep the heat off nor a motherboard with an extensive VRM like the 9900K does. In fact if you look at the whole, there are a lot of negatives against the 9900K and the only positive is a very marginal gaming performance advantage at lower resolutions with a 2080 Ti. Such a fringe situation.

 

[1d10t]

While me constantly ridicule Intel for their shortages, its backfiring now
I hope this not disrupt their TR3 launches, not in motherboard availability at least, I can live with old gen 2000 series TR3.

 

[Hyderz]

This doesn't make a lot of sense, Intel doesn't have a 12 core alternative. The closest they have is the 9900K, in which case you could have easily have gotten a 3700X instead. You can then drop in a Zen2+ processor next year. The only people who should be dropping $500 on a 9900K are people who need every last frame. Otherwise a 3700X is a far better option. Not just because it's much cheaper but also because it wins in applications by a wider margin then it losses in gaming. The desktop experience is snappier then a 9900K. It also doesn't require an expensive cooler to keep the heat off nor a motherboard with an extensive VRM like the 9900K does. In fact if you look at the whole, there are a lot of negatives against the 9900K and the only positive is a very marginal gaming performance advantage at lower resolutions with a 2080 Ti. Such a fringe situation.

yes what you said is true but pricing is high for the new amd cpu's in south korea and the price difference between the 3700x and 9900k is around 80 dollars.
i9 9900k performs better in gaming and the z390 motherboards are cheaper than the x570 ones when i was purchasing them.
I really want the Ryzen 9 3900x but priced around $200 more than the i9 9900k when i was buying it.
Don't get me wrong the ryzen cpu's are fantastic and great value, its just unfortunate where im living atm, plus x570 chipset has power and bios issues ( i know it can be fixed via patch but hassles..)
Certain games not working properly with ryzen cpu's as well. Overall the x570 and ryzen 3rd gen cpu is slightly unstable and hence i chose intel i9 over amd ryzen for those various reasons.

 

[yeeeeman]

yes what you said is true but pricing is high for the new amd cpu's in south korea and the price difference between the 3700x and 9900k is around 80 dollars.
i9 9900k performs better in gaming and the z390 motherboards are cheaper than the x570 ones when i was purchasing them.
I really want the Ryzen 9 3900x but priced around $200 more than the i9 9900k when i was buying it.
Don't get me wrong the ryzen cpu's are fantastic and great value, its just unfortunate where im living atm, plus x570 chipset has power and bios issues ( i know it can be fixed via patch but hassles..)
Certain games not working properly with ryzen cpu's as well. Overall the x570 and ryzen 3rd gen cpu is slightly unstable and hence i chose intel i9 over amd ryzen for those various reasons.

If you game, sure, 9900K is worth it. But other than that is all cons. 9900K needs a very potent cooling solution to stretch its legs and costs money. 3700X can run just fine on a b450 motherboard and that is half in price compared to z390. Unlike Intel, AMD maintains backwards support. Even 3700X is better than 9900k is many compute benchmarks so only if you're obsessed with the FPS, I think the 3700X is the better buy between the two. 3900X vs 9900k is not a competition, 3900x is much faster and the price difference (if it would sell at 500$) is worth.

 

[Sybaris_Caesar]

Looking at absymal 3900X availability im not suprised. Good luck getting 3950X this year. That in on itself would be like winning a lottery, but be prepared for inflated prices and weeks of wait time before delivery.

I've seen a post on AMD subreddit yesterday that the 3950X has been in production since May. Someone posted a picture of a retail sample from Russia and some people decoded the SKU code.

 

[techmagnet]

I wonder if yield issues are also a factor with the lower process 7nm node?

There is no yield issue, it's just that TSMC is serving a lot of customers especially on the smartphone business.

 

[ratirt]

Of course you do.
Why would TSMC conciously sell to a client who pays less than others?
It makes no sense and it's actually illegal. You can go to jail for that.

This is not an auction house selling product to the highest bidder or a village fair. It is an industry and this one, consist of contracts and agreements. The price is already set and TSMC is not choosing who will get the product from them and for what price now. This has already been settled. As far as I remember, when TSMC announced the 7nm node AMD said TSMC's node will be used for upcoming processors. The two companies have already had an agreement and contracts have been signed.
Where do you get this stuff? Is that how the companies in your country do this?

If there is a shortage then it would mean the TSMC has underestimated their capabilities or they didn't expect there will be so many wanting the product.
All companies with the signed contracts will get the product in time but with lower quantities then expected till TSMC will fix the production and increase capacity. Otherwise TSMC would have been charged not to deliver anything and I didn't hear anything about that so far.

 

[Manoa]

a real waste the global foundaries laved 7nm development, it could be really helpfull to everyone if they continue it :x

 

[Nkd]

No? Get one.

Of course. But given how AMD normally does their business, that would be very surprising.
They're building the company value ("the hype") on this kind of partnerships.
During every Ryzen launch AMD shows a long litany of OEM representatives praising the new product and saying they'll be happy to use it in their PCs. And it happens months later. Or never.

By all means: Nvidia will not be the only Samsung fab client. Intel is there as well. And so could be AMD.
But other that that it's the same story as with TSMC: AMD sells cheaper products and they can pay less for a wafer.

Well... there's one big difference. Samsung, unlike TSMC, also makes chips. They are the largest client of their in-house semiconductor manufacturing business.
And the leftover capacity is nothing compared to TSMC potential. In other words: AMD needs TSMC.


Of course you do.
Why would TSMC conciously sell to a client who pays less than others?
It makes no sense and it's actually illegal. You can go to jail for that.

AMD fans like to state how TSMC and AMD are in great partnership. They aren't. TSMC is selling something. AMD is buying. That's it.
If anything, AMD had MUCH tighter connection with GF. During Ryzen 1000 launch AMD fans praised that. GF is great, innovative. AMD is great, fabless, innovative. Intel has supply problems because they aren't fabless. BLA BLA BLA
2 years forward no one remembers what GF is.
Now AMD is the company troubled with supply issues, because they're 100% dependent on a single supplier that - unlike in the GF era - they can't control or at least get a high priority.

All which EPYC chips? AMD has 3-4% of datacenter market share.
And companies buy servers for 3+ years - not replace them every generation like a lot of people on this forum.

Stop making it about fanboy crap. That just makes you amd troll no? lol.

Also do you know that TSMC has HPC node and low power? So you can't just say AMD is not a big player. AMD is one of the only HPC TSMC partner at this stage, no? Who else is making 7nm High performance products at TSMC? I don't know of anyone but AMD. Plus that contracts are already in place with AMD, so no AMD is not all of sudden getting shown the door. They will get what they are promised and paying for according to original contract. New comers will get the back seat.

So you think AMD is not selling any EPYC chips? So they grew with first gen eypc you expect them to not grow with 2ng gen when it destroys everything out there?

3 year cycle? Is there only one 3 year cycle? lol. So you think there aren't company that have had servers for 3+ years? You would be right if everyone bought at the same time and upgraded at the same time lol. There are many companies who will upgrade. Smart companies will even upgrade earlier if they are getting shit load of more performance, that is more value back in their pocket. They don't think like consumers.

So yea there is always a 3 year cycle every year. People aren't just upgrading form first gen epyc. When you have shit load of market share to gain that just means there are many out there that you can target and with product like ROME they are going to only gain more. It's nonsense to think AMD will be stuck at 3-4% market share. Its only on the front page you know https://www.techpowerup.com/259314/2nd-gen-amd-epyc-continues-market-momentum-with-new-customers

 

[Zotz]

Is there a source link from TSMC for this news? I find it simply appearing here, Linus Tech Tips, and Reddit. Nowhere else and no attribution. I hope all these comments haven't been wasted on a fake.

 

[renz496]

"They will get what they are promised and paying for according to original contract. New comers will get the back seat."

problem is we don't know the fine details about that contract. the contract can include fine clause about TSMC will take away some of your fab capacity to others if TSMC deemed it necessary. new comers will get the back seat? it depends on who the new comer is (for order). back in 2012 nvidia are complaining that TSMC unable to fulfill their demand for their newest 28nm based product. not long after that TSMC directly made public announcement that they are taking some of Qualcomm and AMD fab capacity to be given to Nvidia. yeah i know some people will hope that things will go all well for AMD. but don't try to dismiss the reality that can happen either. because some of this thing like AMD fab capacity being given to others indeed happen in the past.

 

[ratirt]

Stop making it about fanboy crap. That just makes you amd troll no? lol.

Also do you know that TSMC has HPC node and low power? So you can't just say AMD is not a big player. AMD is one of the only HPC TSMC partner at this stage, no? Who else is making 7nm High performance products at TSMC? I don't know of anyone but AMD. Plus that contracts are already in place with AMD, so no AMD is not all of sudden getting shown the door. They will get what they are promised and paying for according to original contract. New comers will get the back seat.

So you think AMD is not selling any EPYC chips? So they grew with first gen eypc you expect them to not grow with 2ng gen when it destroys everything out there?

3 year cycle? Is there only one 3 year cycle? lol. So you think there aren't company that have had servers for 3+ years? You would be right if everyone bought at the same time and upgraded at the same time lol. There are many companies who will upgrade. Smart companies will even upgrade earlier if they are getting shit load of more performance, that is more value back in their pocket. They don't think like consumers.

So yea there is always a 3 year cycle every year. People aren't just upgrading form first gen epyc. When you have shit load of market share to gain that just means there are many out there that you can target and with product like ROME they are going to only gain more. It's nonsense to think AMD will be stuck at 3-4% market share. Its only on the front page you know https://www.techpowerup.com/259314/2nd-gen-amd-epyc-continues-market-momentum-with-new-customers

To add to that. Yesterday we have received an official statement from HP from whom the company I work for is supplying desktops. No more I7 desktops available from HP. Maybe there are several left but we order in thousands. All AMD only with whatever configuration. There. It is official now that companies like HP and probably other big players will slowly move to AMD. Maybe it is because the vulnerabilities Intel's processors have? Not sure but there's something to it. Besides the vulnerabilities will surely make others switch to AMD if their data might be compromised using the vulnerabilities. From our stand point it's not that crucial as a consumer but others like government, military etc. might switch to AMD.

"They will get what they are promised and paying for according to original contract. New comers will get the back seat."

problem is we don't know the fine details about that contract. the contract can include fine clause about TSMC will take away some of your fab capacity to others if TSMC deemed it necessary. new comers will get the back seat? it depends on who the new comer is (for order). back in 2012 nvidia are complaining that TSMC unable to fulfill their demand for their newest 28nm based product. not long after that TSMC directly made public announcement that they are taking some of Qualcomm and AMD fab capacity to be given to Nvidia. yeah i know some people will hope that things will go all well for AMD. but don't try to dismiss the reality that can happen either. because some of this thing like AMD fab capacity being given to others indeed happen in the past.

We don't know what the contracts contain but saying that products will be shipped to the highest bidder is crazy. We can't know what the contracts say but they are there. That's important. TSMC is a huge company. The one of the biggest in the industry now. They can't afford to lose customers selling products to chosen companies because they pay more. That's what the agreements and contracts are for. All important stuff is in the contract protecting the customer like AMD and TSMC as a supplier. It is not a one shot deal but it is a long term supply matter. Besides, TSMC is tracking what's going on in the processor industry now and they know what AMD has accomplished with its Ryzen chip. They wont throw AMD under the bus now for sure or any other company. Shortage? sure. it happens and probably they forecast this at list a little bit.

 

[renz496]

It is useless to debate this. Ultimately we need to wait and see what happen in a few months. We can debate like how this will not affect AMD and give many reason why it won't affect AMD but what if they still affect AMD anyway? So just chill out for now.

 

[ratirt]

It is useless to debate this. Ultimately we need to wait and see what happen in a few months. We can debate like how this will not affect AMD and give many reason why it won't affect AMD but what if they still affect AMD anyway? So just chill out for now.

I don't understand. You share thoughts ask questions. I answered and you say chill out for now Besides the debate was about different aspect of the industry but sure.
It already affects AMD because there might be a shortage involved and deliveries are delayed. not sure what you are after.

 

[londiste]

The news bit talks about lead times. For various reasons, these are probably not specified in a very detailed manner in the contracts. I mean, they could be but surely with an additional price tag attached. Either way, a couple of months delay is not the end of the world for any of the affected companies. Well, maybe Apple