ASUS: "Lower Yields Upstream" Responsible for Lack of NVIDIA Chips

[AusWolf]

Smells like..., NOT!
In q4 2020 Nvidia supplied 1 mil gpus more than in q4 2019.

Supplied whom?

A friend/colleague of mine ordered a Palit 3070 in November. She was #28 on the preorder list. Now she's #2, and has been for the last month. If one of the largest retailers of the UK gets only 26 graphics cards of a certain brand during 5 months, then no sales statistic data can tell me that the situation is nice and shiny. Statistics can easily be falsified.

 

[Anymal]

They supplied chips, gpus, you are talking about graphics cards.

 

[AusWolf]

They supplied chips, gpus, you are talking about graphics cards.

If they supplied the chips, then where are the graphics cards? Are you suggesting that there's millions of chips getting dusty in manufacturers' warehouses while the same manufacturers blame nVidia (and consequently the Samsung foundry) for not supplying enough of them?

 

[londiste]

Statistics can easily be falsified.

Financial statements of public companies? Not that easily.

 

[AusWolf]

Financial statements of public companies? Not that easily.

Okay, but then where are the cards? ASUS says there's a lack of chips (which I think is confirmed by looking at stock of all AIB cards all around the world), nVidia says there isn't (which is only confirmed by their financial reports). Someone is lying.

 

[londiste]

It is all relative. Of course ASUS would prefer to get more GPUs, as would other AIBs as well as Nvidia themselves - because right now they can sell all of them that they can get to the market. As far as they are concerned whether it goes to mining or gaming is pretty irrelevant. When it comes to ASUS' statement, lack of chips does not necessarily mean yield problems. Capacity itself is more likely to be a problem right now.

A friend/colleague of mine ordered a Palit 3070 in November. She was #28 on the preorder list. Now she's #2, and has been for the last month. If one of the largest retailers of the UK gets only 26 graphics cards of a certain brand during 5 months, then no sales statistic data can tell me that the situation is nice and shiny.

Specific brands-models and waiting lists are a whole different ballgame. I am apparently pretty high up on EVGA EU list but EVGA basically is only supplying US right now. With ever-increasing prices, waiting lists are today a net loss for the retailer. Kudos to all the retailers that can get the cards and do sell them for preorder price or the initial prices but seeing what the wholesale prices are right now... that cannot be easy.

The big picture is that there are a lot of cards on the market and in the hands of consumers. Yes, prices are wrong, and yes, availability is spotty. But if we look at financial statements - starting with Nvidia whose revenue increased considerably more than their AUP - or other indirect statistics like Steam Hardware survey they all tend to show there is a LOT of Ampere cards out there. If you are willing to pay the exorbitant prices you can mostly get cards today or in a few days (possibly with the exception of 3080 that really does not seem to stay in stock no matter the price).

 

[Anymal]

If they supplied the chips, then where are the graphics cards? Are you suggesting that there's millions of chips getting dusty in manufacturers' warehouses while the same manufacturers blame nVidia (and consequently the Samsung foundry) for not supplying enough of them?

Sold out, there they are. Traditionaly nvidia orders less chips for q1 several months ahead, now are ordered in more quantity but we have to wait for a new batch.

 

[AusWolf]

Sold out, there they are. Traditionaly nvidia orders less chips for q1 several months ahead, now are ordered in more quantity but we have to wait for a new batch.

It's not just about q1. My friend has been waiting for almost half a year now, and she started as #28 on the pre-order list.

Specific brands-models and waiting lists are a whole different ballgame. I am apparently pretty high up on EVGA EU list but EVGA basically is only supplying US right now. With ever-increasing prices, waiting lists are today a net loss for the retailer. Kudos to all the retailers that can get the cards and do sell them for preorder price or the initial prices but seeing what the wholesale prices are right now... that cannot be easy.

If that's the case, it might explain the difference between the Steam survey and store stocks. There might be a lot of cards out there, just not in the UK, apparently.

The big picture is that there are a lot of cards on the market and in the hands of consumers. Yes, prices are wrong, and yes, availability is spotty. But if we look at financial statements - starting with Nvidia whose revenue increased considerably more than their AUP - or other indirect statistics like Steam Hardware survey they all tend to show there is a LOT of Ampere cards out there. If you are willing to pay the exorbitant prices you can mostly get cards today or in a few days (possibly with the exception of 3080 that really does not seem to stay in stock no matter the price).

That's another piece of the puzzle I don't get. I've just checked ebay UK for 3070s, and there seems to be a lot of them around the 1,000 GBP mark, but how do they end up there if there has been literally nothing in the stores ever since launch?

 

[rtwjunkie]

Financial statements of public companies? Not that easily.

To be fair, does NVIDIA’s financial report actually state how many chips were produced (which would be unusual for a financial report), or how much money they made off if GPU chips? It is far more likely that the high price of their product has fueled their extraordinary profits, not the volume sold.

 

[londiste]

To be fair, does NVIDIA’s financial report actually state how many chips were produced (which would be unusual for a financial report), or how much money they made off if GPU chips? It is far more likely that the high price of their product has fueled their extraordinary profits, not the volume sold.

It does not. Analytics are estimating the AUP and seem to find that it has not gone up enough to cause the revenue increase by itself.
Keep in mind that despite much of internet hoopla the price Nvidia sells chips to AIBs is not likely to be the cause of current retail prices.

That's another piece of the puzzle I don't get. I've just checked ebay UK for 3070s, and there seems to be a lot of them around the 1,000 GBP mark, but how do they end up there if there has been literally nothing in the stores ever since launch?

Scalpers are a thing but it is quite incorrect to say nothing has been in the stores. Even in my little backwater country, there were 3070s available for a long while for about 1000€. Right now, 3060s are available... for about 1000€. And they are being bought - fast. Hell, if I would have agreed to pay ~1100€ back in November 3080s were available. Even now there is stock fairly regularly - cards are just bought incredibly fast at stupid prices. I have also been looking at EU (and to some degree, GB) stores and the situation is pretty much the same.

Right now, there seems to be a new dip in availability but I am not looking that actively at stock any more either.

If you want to have fun (or be frustrated) you can try to catch something in stock: https://twitter.com/PartAlert
Twitter is actually too slow, their Discord channel is faster. Plus you essentially need all the payment and addresses stuff pre-configured so that you would have a chance to buy in that small window cards are in stock

Edit:
There is a very simple reason for stupid prices: https://2cryptocalc.com/most-profitable-gpu
At todays prices and situation, mining Ethereum makes ~$10 on 3090, ~$8 on 3080, ~$5 on 3070/3060Ti and ~$4 on 3060. Per day. $300, $240, $150 and $120 per month.

 

[R-T-B]

The facts?

I refer you again to what you quoted...

So, you guessed right. Woohoo, you still guessed.

 

[bug]

Okay, but then where are the cards? ASUS says there's a lack of chips (which I think is confirmed by looking at stock of all AIB cards all around the world), nVidia says there isn't (which is only confirmed by their financial reports). Someone is lying.

I don't think anyone is lying. Nvidia did supply more cards (if they were lying, they'd have to conjure up major cash to balance their books). but at current prices, AIBs would like to have 2-3x more than they already do. So they complain about Nvidia not making even more.

To be fair, does NVIDIA’s financial report actually state how many chips were produced (which would be unusual for a financial report), or how much money they made off if GPU chips? It is far more likely that the high price of their product has fueled their extraordinary profits, not the volume sold.

The high price is for finished products, I doubt Nvidia gets to charge (much) more for the bare GPU.

 

[rtwjunkie]

The high price is for finished products, I doubt Nvidia gets to charge (much) more for the bare GPU.

It's certainly possible that you are correct. But if there is a shortage at all levels, it certainly is conceivable that Nvidia would charge exorbitant sums to AIB partners since they know the partners will pay whatever.

 

[bug]

It's certainly possible that you are correct. But if there is a shortage at all levels, it certainly is conceivable that Nvidia would charge exorbitant sums to AIB partners since they know the partners will pay whatever.

True, but if they did that, I think they would also increase the prices of their own reference cards.

And to be completely honest, I just don't give a rat's a** anymore. I'll hang on to my 1060 till prices come down to sane levels again. If they don't, I can easily go IGP only, since I don't really game anymore.

 

[AusWolf]

There is a very simple reason for stupid prices: https://2cryptocalc.com/most-profitable-gpu
At todays prices and situation, mining Ethereum makes ~$10 on 3090, ~$8 on 3080, ~$5 on 3070/3060Ti and ~$4 on 3060. Per day. $300, $240, $150 and $120 per month.

I think that's only a small part of the equation. If the cards were widely available at retail level, scalping wouldn't have a ground to happen, regardless of cryptocurrency rates.

Besides, if a 3070 costs 1,000 bucks and mines 5 bucks a day, then it takes approximately 7 months just to earn its price back. It's common sense that the value of cryptocurrencies will fall as quickly as they rose when they become more commonly mined and owned. Considering this, I really don't think mining is worth it unless you can get your card(s) at MSRP - which you can't.

I don't think anyone is lying. Nvidia did supply more cards (if they were lying, they'd have to conjure up major cash to balance their books). but at current prices, AIBs would like to have 2-3x more than they already do. So they complain about Nvidia not making even more.

The high price is for finished products, I doubt Nvidia gets to charge (much) more for the bare GPU.

Again, Overclockers UK sold 26 Palit 3070s in the last half year. Where's the rest?

Edit: The other thing is, nearly every AIB increased their prices for nVidia graphics cards for apparently no reason. If nVidia is still maintaining launch prices for GPUs sold to AIBs, then is it simple greed on the AIBs' part? I don't think so.

True, but if they did that, I think they would also increase the prices of their own reference cards.

Not necessarily. FE cards are only sold in the US (as far as I know), and since the whole card is made in-house, their profit margin is pretty high already. Plus, maintaining relatively lower FE prices is a good way to undercut the AIBs (which are essentially competition ever since FE became a thing).

 

[bug]

Again, Overclockers UK sold 26 Palit 3070s in the last half year. Where's the rest?

Edit: The other thing is, nearly every AIB increased their prices for nVidia graphics cards for apparently no reason. If nVidia is still maintaining launch prices for GPUs sold to AIBs, then is it simple greed on the AIBs' part? I don't think so.

Well, the chain is Nvidia -> OEMs -> AIBs -> retailers -> end user. Nvidia has released a (pretty solid, imho) statement telling us they actually make more GPUs than before. Without some proof to the contrary, I believe them.
Of the remaining parties I think it's the OEMs that may be diverting GPUs towards miners. Why do I think that? Because if Nvidia was screwing us, we'd be able to buy AMD cards. And if retailers were at fault, it's unlikely all of them would be colluding with miners, there would be at least a few that would have enough stock. It could also be AIBs, there aren't that many out there to rule out a cartel deal.
To sum things up, my suspects would be OEMs, AIBs, retailers and Nvidia, in that order.

Of course, let's not forget that without the global chip shortage, Nvidia would have placed additional orders by now. But that's probably not going to happen in 2021.

 

[AusWolf]

Well, the chain is Nvidia -> OEMs -> AIBs -> retailers -> end user. Nvidia has released a (pretty solid, imho) statement telling us they actually make more GPUs than before. Without some proof to the contrary, I believe them.

I think there's plenty of proof both for and against.

For:

• nVidia's financial statements,
• miners,
• scalpers,
• Steam survey.

Against:

• Actual number of actual graphics cards in the hands of actual people and on store shelves,
• no fully unlocked GPU chip anywhere in the product stack,
• lots of repurposing of different GPU variations for different segments of the product stack (GA104 for 3060 Ti, GA102-250 / 225).

Of the remaining parties I think it's the OEMs that may be diverting GPUs towards miners. Why do I think that? Because if Nvidia was screwing us, we'd be able to buy AMD cards. And if retailers were at fault, it's unlikely all of them would be colluding with miners, there would be at least a few that would have enough stock. It could also be AIBs, there aren't that many out there to rule out a cartel deal.
To sum things up, my suspects would be OEMs, AIBs, retailers and Nvidia, in that order.

Of course, let's not forget that without the global chip shortage, Nvidia would have placed additional orders by now. But that's probably not going to happen in 2021.

That sounds like a solid train of thought. Although on AMD's side of things, one possible theory could be their allocation of capacity at TSMC, which I believe is mostly spent on console SOCs and Ryzen. AMD might have not anticipated their new Radeons to be very popular, so they might have underbooked their capacity at TSMC. It still doesn't explain why there is literally zero stock of Radeon graphics cards at UK stores ever since launch, so without any evidence, I'm inclined to give your suspicions credit.

 

[bug]

I think there's plenty of proof both for and against.

For:

• ...

Against:

• Actual number of actual graphics cards in the hands of actual people and on store shelves,
• no fully unlocked GPU chip anywhere in the product stack,
• lots of repurposing of different GPU variations for different segments of the product stack (GA104 for 3060 Ti, GA102-250 / 225).

Those aren't solid arguments against Nvidia.
Siphoning cards at any point will result in lower quantities reaching the end user just the same.
And fully unlocked chips... Nvidia had very few of those for generations. It's a design decision they make: very complex chips with higher defects initially (thus the disabled units) that may or may not be unlocked more down the road. See the Super line of Turing cards, but this has happened before. Hell, we haven't even seen Gx100/200 in the consumer space since Maxwell (I think).