Intel CEO Predicts Chips Will Cost 20% of Future Cars' Bill of Materials by 2030

[TheLostSwede]

Yikes! It's even worse than I thought.

Tesla has fixed all known issues, so it was bad, but it shouldn't be possible any more.

 

[Vayra86]

Tesla has fixed all known issues, so it was bad, but it shouldn't be possible any more.

Every issue gets known at some point. Its what you don't know that kills you. Musk has built some experience here I think. And so does Tesla. But many other brands failed on their keyless entry too, prior to him.

Most things actually do go wrong for a while before they get better.

 

[Tardian]

I've read the comments above and whilst a grain of truth runs through the thread, some of you should stick to comments about topics within your expertise. I regularly comment on car sites to the point that I get accused of being a journalist and have some of my comments removed because they show up the original author's lack of knowledge. The article topic for this thread was:

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger predicts that chips and semiconductors will make up as much of the car's bill-of-materials (BOM) as the engine (or main propulsion) itself. This change will happen as early as in 2030, said Gelsinger, speaking at a keynote address, at the IAA Mobility 2021 show in Munich. Gelsinger's prediction is backed by internal research conducted by Roland Berger, and McKinsey.

The problem is one of supply and demand. There is a global shortage of chips at a time when automobile manufacturers have plans to greatly increase the degree of electronic sophistication of all vehicles.

Some of the increased degrees of electronic sophistication are driven by customer demand, confirming with increased safety and environmental standards, and some are driven by marketing.

Unless governments and industry address the supply issue by building more capacity or returning mothballed production capacity the problem will deteriorate.

I note that Australia is noticeably absent from the Semiconductor fabrication plant industry. For a 'first world nation that is a surprising outcome. CSIRO has some explaining to do.

 

[Minus Infinity]

I note that Australia is noticeably absent from the Semiconductor fabrication plant industry. For a 'first world nation that is a surprising outcome. CSIRO has some explaining to do.

Why do you think this is the fault of the CSIRO? Complex issue and more blame should laid at the feet of successive Federal governments and our near total reliance on being an exporters of resources and RAW materials, not value adding. We are third world country technologically.

Read this

The terrible trickiness of growing an Australian semiconductor sector - Australian Manufacturing Forum

What does Australia have in the way of a semiconductor industry, and why does that matter? Brent Balinski spoke to Professor James Rabeau, the lead author of a national study of the sector published at the end of last year.

www.aumanufacturing.com.au

 

[Tardian]

Why do you think this is the fault of the CSIRO? Complex issue and more blame should laid at the feet of successive Federal governments and our near total reliance on being an exporters of resources and RAW materials, not value adding. We are third world country technologically.

Read this

The terrible trickiness of growing an Australian semiconductor sector - Australian Manufacturing Forum

What does Australia have in the way of a semiconductor industry, and why does that matter? Brent Balinski spoke to Professor James Rabeau, the lead author of a national study of the sector published at the end of last year.

www.aumanufacturing.com.au

Rabeau is hopeful the time is right for a focussed attempt to build Australian capability in an industry that drives the progress and prosperity of the modern world.
“The overriding sense from people is that actually right now is a different time and this is the right time, and the opportunity is right for us to make a play into the sector in a more meaningful way to establish something,” he offers.

I couldn't agree more. I have escalated this issue to the Minister. Many thanks for the link!

 

[docnorth]

Also, almost all cars are going automatic in some way, so it's time to give up on the antiquated manual gearboxes, they don't really offer any benefits, except a feeling good factor. And yes, I know how to drive a manual car, on both the right and wrong side of the road...

1)Right now I would only consider a dual clutch "semi-automatic", like the DSG from VW-Audi group or the same concept from other manufacturers. What can I say, can't live without gearbox fork(s).
2)Don't tell me you started to drive when Sweden was driving left(!), or is it just experience from former British colonies?

 

[Tardian]

DSG Don't Shift Good? Australians drive on the right side of the road wherever we are? The English language is so flexible.

 

[AsRock]

Because no-one wants a Trabant or Lada.

And you don't like the old Shelby or alike ?.

Battery's to cost a insane amount of many too, and replacements OMG. Just another way to get you to replace your car more often and drum up the cost.

 

[TheLostSwede]

1)Right now I would only consider a dual clutch "semi-automatic", like the DSG from VW-Audi group or the same concept from other manufacturers. What can I say, can't live without gearbox fork(s).
2)Don't tell me you started to drive when Sweden was driving left(!), or is it just experience from former British colonies?

Yeah, that's what we have on our car. It's actually not as useful as you'd think and as I mentioned, I mainly use it for engine braking going down the mountain we live on.
I'm not that old no, but I did live in the UK for nearly a decade and I've also driven in Australia and New Zealand.

And you don't like the old Shelby or alike ?.

Battery's to cost a insane amount of many too, and replacements OMG. Just another way to get you to replace your car more often and drum up the cost.

Yeah, the whole battery pack issue is the one thing that really irks me with electrical cars. It needs to be much easier to swap that bit out for more modern battery technology as it progresses if nothing else. As always, the next breakthrough is just around the corner...

 

[Tardian]

Solid State Batteries - Autumn 2021 mass production in Japan. Is it FINALLY happening?​

WiP.

 

[mechtech]

No-one except you would buy a car like that today.
People don't want hand cranked windows or hand cranks to start the engine...

We’ll a lot of people like me would like cars like that. Here in Canada things like push button 4wd and electrical switches and solenoids for changing dampers from ac to heat/cool, power door locks etc etc don’t stand up well to multiple freeze thaw cycles and condensation and -40c

I sold my old 1976 Chevy pick up truck a few years ago to a guy and he said everything still works on it even the keyed door locks and vent dampers, hand crank windows, etc etc

and yes it does have electric start and power steering and it used to have an 8 track player lol

 

[TheLostSwede]

We’ll a lot of people like me would like cars like that. Here in Canada things like push button 4wd and electrical switches and solenoids for changing dampers from ac to heat/cool, power door locks etc etc don’t stand up well to multiple freeze thaw cycles and condensation and -40c

I sold my old 1976 Chevy pick up truck a few years ago to a guy and he said everything still works on it even the keyed door locks and vent dampers, hand crank windows, etc etc

and yes it does have electric start and power steering and it used to have an 8 track player lol

Strange that all that survives in Sweden, where all the European and several other car makers test their cars for winter compliance down to -40. Maybe you should have them come to Canadia instead then.

 

[mechtech]

Strange that all that survives in Sweden, where all the European and several other car makers test their cars for winter compliance down to -40. Maybe you should have them come to Canadia instead then.

They test to -40c. They don’t test 15 years of freeze thaw and condensation cycles or 15 years of a zillion tons of salt spray. If you get a lease and trade it in every 3-5 years no issues. It’s when you buy a vehicle with the intent of keeping it 10-15 years.

 

[docnorth]

Yeah, that's what we have on our car. It's actually not as useful as you'd think and as I mentioned, I mainly use it for engine braking going down the mountain we live on.
I'm not that old no, but I did live in the UK for nearly a decade and I've also driven in Australia and New Zealand.

Actually I was almost sure the answer would be UK or Australia, but it was fun to ask.

 

[TheLostSwede]

They test to -40c. They don’t test 15 years of freeze thaw and condensation cycles or 15 years of a zillion tons of salt spray. If you get a lease and trade it in every 3-5 years no issues. It’s when you buy a vehicle with the intent of keeping it 10-15 years.

And what do you think people that live up there drive? 60 year old cars? I don't think so.
Keep in mind that Arjeplog about 350km south of the northern border of Sweden, so it's not even that far north... 65th parallel if you want to compare to some place in Canada.
There are several bigger towns further north than Arjeplog in all of the Nordic countries, well, maybe not Iceland and only if you count Greenland as Denmark.

 

[mechtech]

And what do you think people that live up there drive? 60 year old cars? I don't think so.
Keep in mind that Arjeplog about 350km south of the northern border of Sweden, so it's not even that far north... 65th parallel if you want to compare to some place in Canada.
There are several bigger towns further north than Arjeplog in all of the Nordic countries, well, maybe not Iceland and only if you count Greenland as Denmark.

Latitude doesn’t matter as much as the weather and what they put on the roads and obviously the quality of the parts. My main point was a lot of mechanical things like cables to move hvac dampers in vehicles are much much cheaper and more reliable in long term than any electrical device to do the same thing. Same goes for a mechanical lever to engage 4wd vs an electric solenoid. Don’t get me wrong power locks and push buttons and things are nice but for some things like mentioned above I’d prefer to be mechanical if given the option.

As for latitude Timmins sits at only 48N and I have seen it snow here every single month in my lifetime. :|
Attawapiskat sits at 58N and it’s past the tree line lol

 

[AsRock]

Yeah, that's what we have on our car. It's actually not as useful as you'd think and as I mentioned, I mainly use it for engine braking going down the mountain we live on.
I'm not that old no, but I did live in the UK for nearly a decade and I've also driven in Australia and New Zealand.


Yeah, the whole battery pack issue is the one thing that really irks me with electrical cars. It needs to be much easier to swap that bit out for more modern battery technology as it progresses if nothing else. As always, the next breakthrough is just around the corner...

Mean while it cost what to replace a battery ?, 3k 10k+, then there is the thing they love doing now and it's not supported any longer and we cannot get you a new battery. It will not be long they be pulling off what so many others do with electronics and telling the makers not to sell to anyone else then again i bet they do that already.

 

[Rithsom]

Timmins sits at only 48N and I have seen it snow here every single month in my lifetime. :|
Attawapiskat sits at 58N and it’s past the tree line lol
View attachment 216236

Not to mention that Timmins isn't even at a high elevation (only 295 m).

The (north) central region of North America gets shockingly cold. You'll want a car that'll last you.

 

[TheLostSwede]

Mean while it cost what to replace a battery ?, 3k 10k+, then there is the thing they love doing now and it's not supported any longer and we cannot get you a new battery. It will not be long they be pulling off what so many others do with electronics and telling the makers not to sell to anyone else then again i bet they do that already.

See, this is where government regulation is needed. More focus on standards used industry wide. I doubt that'll happen though.

 

[AsRock]

See, this is where government regulation is needed. More focus on standards used industry wide. I doubt that'll happen though.

Not to sure about that, they proberly helping the BS, govenment is a big part of most issue's today.

 

[TheLostSwede]

Not to sure about that, they proberly helping the BS, govenment is a big part of most issue's today.

Maybe where you live, but I would disagree it's the same everywhere.
And with a global shift towards fossil fuel free vehicles, governments are already involved, so one more little thing isn't going to make any difference.
Just like there are charging standards, even though they aren't global, there should be "easily" swappable battery standards. I don't expect this to be something you can do on your own, it's not a Gogoro scooter we're talking about here after all, but something a qualified mechanic should be able to do in a day at the most.
With all the talk about the environmental impact of producing cars, you'd think this one would make a lot of sense, as it'd give electric cars a much longer life span.

 

[Tardian]

Maybe where you live, but I would disagree it's the same everywhere.
And with a global shift towards fossil fuel free vehicles, governments are already involved, so one more little thing isn't going to make any difference.
Just like there are charging standards, even though they aren't global, there should be "easily" swappable battery standards. I don't expect this to be something you can do on your own, it's not a Gogoro scooter we're talking about here after all, but something a qualified mechanic should be able to do in a day at the most.
With all the talk about the environmental impact of producing cars, you'd think this one would make a lot of sense, as it'd give electric cars a much longer life span.

Not disagreeing with you but, it is my understanding that replacing BEV batteries is a specialized and potentially dangerous task (pun intended).

 

[TheLostSwede]

Not disagreeing with you but, it is my understanding that replacing BEV batteries is a specialized and potentially dangerous task (pun intended).

Not as long as you don't damage the battery packs, it's not.

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

As I said Intel are just pushing car makers to they're lower node's.

Chip makers to carmakers: time to get out of the semiconductor Stone Age

Intel, Qualcomm try to wean auto companies from dependence on obsolete technology

fortune.com

Further Shortages incoming.

Because we(Intel) say so in other words