Editorial Bitcoin Drops Below the $40,000-mark, Raises Hopes of Graphics Card Availability

[btarunr]

The most popular cryptocurrency by market-cap, Bitcoin, has dropped in value to below the USD $40,000-mark, to $38,429 as of this writing. This amounts to a whopping 43% drop in value from its November 2021 peak of roughly $67,600. Ethereum has also seen an 8% fall over the past 24 hours, as has the value of several other cryptocurrencies. While we won't get into the nuts and bolts of Bitcoin volatility or hand out any financial advice, this could have an impact on graphics card availability owing to a multitude of reasons.

As of this writing, we see the GeForce RTX 3080 commanding a scalper price of roughly $1,500 (brand new), for the LHR variant (lower crypto-mining performance), while non-LHR cards that are used, start around $1,900. If the fall in cryptocurrencies continues, we could see increased availability of used graphics cards from crypto miners, as gamers would be willing to buy a used RTX 30-series or RX 6000 series graphics card that's still within its warranty period (of 2 years).



Sales of used cards by miners will apply pressure on scalpers hording new cards to cut prices, more so as they'd be trying to sell newer batches of RTX 30-series cards that are LHR. Add to all this, the next-generation crypto-mining ASICs are on the anvil, including Bitmain's Antminer S19 XP, and Intel's "Bonanza Mine" ASIC that the company plans to unveil next month. The arrival of ASIC miners usually triggers an increase in the mining difficulty algorithm, which should worsen the performance/Dollar of GPUs in mining applications. The compound effect of all these, we predict, could briefly improve graphics card availability in 1H-2022. A continued fall in the value of cryptocurrencies will only accelerate this.

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[WhitetailAni]

The arrival of ASIC miners usually triggers an increase in the mining difficulty algorithm, which should worsen the performance/Dollar of GPUs in mining applications.

Unless I'm really dumb, won't this do nothing for perf/$ for mining with GPUs? No one mines Bitcoin with GPUs now.
Also, this drop in price happened before - BTC went from 63K to 32K over 100 days, people got excited, graphics cards prices didn't change much at all, then it went back up again to hit 69K (nice). It is now at 40K, but we have no way of predicting how far it'll fall, if it does any more. Personally I think Intel's Bonanza Mine might hurt the situation instead of help it, but I'm no expert.

 

[the54thvoid]

Warranties aren't transferable in a lot of territories, and where they are, proof of purchase is often required. I'd be hesitant to buy a second hand card from anybody without proper documentation which could be used for ownership. Nor would I give a ******** penny to a scalper.

And if Bitcoin is falling, that just means those who gamble with it will start buying it again. I see no end to the intentional volatility of BTC until it's neutered by regulation or other means.

 

[R0H1T]

Hope, what's that? More like delusion if anyone thinks it will increase (GPU) availability!

 

[Jhart1228]

Hmmm maybe that EVGA notify for a 3080 FTW3 Ultra Gaming will magically appear soon.

 

[Makaveli]

I would buy a used cpu however used mining gpu hard pass.

 

[Space Lynx]

Hope, what's that? More like delusion if anyone thinks it will increase (GPU) availability!

ye the shortage has more to do with third party sellers/bots becoming more dominant in the market now. a bunch of people realized that hey, there are only like 3 places to buy in-demand products at MSRP, lets buy all they have with bots every time they come in stock, then turn around and sell them in the third party marketplaces of the same websites.

this is the new world we live in.

until companies wise up and stop all online sales and move to in-person store sales, this will never end.

but no one ever ******* listens to me so eh.

 

[Chaitanya]

Warranties aren't transferable in a lot of territories, and where they are, proof of purchase is often required. I'd be hesitant to buy a second hand card from anybody without proper documentation which could be used for ownership. Nor would I give a ******** penny to a scalper.

And if Bitcoin is falling, that just means those who gamble with it will start buying it again. I see no end to the intentional volatility of BTC until it's neutered by regulation or other means.

Non-Transferable warranty is a worldwide thing(never enforced before) just like warranties restricted to countries of sale with worldwide warranty for selected electronics being optional extra(though these day they have also been culled for cellphones and laptops with only cameras keeping that option). Since this mining boom happened I have seen more and more manufacturers actually enforcing non transferable warranties on GPU with service centers checking ID with bills before providing service.

 

[dinmaster]

before the last drop, prices were high for cards. crypto dropped hard and came back and the prices are even worse with the chip shortage. I don't think this drop will be long lived and i don't think the prices will change much as long as the chip shortage is around. this is just pushing news(?) for the sake of starting a conversation that won't go anywhere..

 

[Space Lynx]

Warranties aren't transferable in a lot of territories, and where they are, proof of purchase is often required. I'd be hesitant to buy a second hand card from anybody without proper documentation which could be used for ownership. Nor would I give a ******** penny to a scalper.

And if Bitcoin is falling, that just means those who gamble with it will start buying it again. I see no end to the intentional volatility of BTC until it's neutered by regulation or other means.

once the first dictator that comes around with crypto and can't have their assets frozen as punishment, as USA and Europe have done to many countries/dictators over the decades as a form of punishment, then the regulators will probably wake up and be like woops we messed up, and then ban it from their own said countries. but they aren't smart enough to do this until the first idiot dictator laughs in their face when the banks go to try to freeze their accounts.

 

[S73fan]

No matter how much bitcoin falls, we will no longer see normal prices on video cards ...

 

[Space Lynx]

No matter how much bitcoin falls, we will no longer see normal prices on video cards ...

greed and envy rule all my enemies ~ 2pac

 

[R-T-B]

I'd remind TPU that market price has no correlation to mining-profitability in crypto realm, as most miners sell and don't hold, and adaptive diffilculty ensures it remains profitable. Heck, some of my best profits were on dips in the price of crypto.

The only hope something like this offers you is that new potential miners read the headlines and think "nope, can't make money..." without understanding it. That might happen, time will tell.

No matter how much bitcoin falls, we will no longer see normal prices on video cards ...

I'm nearly certain of that.

Unless I'm really dumb, won't this do nothing for perf/$ for mining with GPUs? No one mines Bitcoin with GPUs now.

Exactly. The bitcoin ASIC boat sailed in 2016, @btarunr

once the first dictator that comes around with crypto and can't have their assets frozen as punishment

This has already happened more than once with North Korea... Just sayin'

 

[Fleurious]

Arn’t drops like these pretty common with bitcoins? They always seem to recover as greed overcomes caution.

 

[DeeJay1001]

I would buy a used cpu however used mining gpu hard pass.

Mining GPUs are run at a constant temperature, rarely power or temperature cycled, and run far below maximum power. Not to mention the person running the mining card has alot more reason to keep that card in good condition than the average gamer. I would choose an ex-minig card, over a general use card every time without question.

 

[R-T-B]

Mining GPUs are run at a constant temperature, rarely power or temperature cycled, and run far below maximum power. Not to mention the person running the mining card has alot more reason to keep that card in good condition than the average gamer. I would choose an ex-minig card, over a general use card every time without question.

The fans are the achiles heel of that. Otherwise the logic is sound.

 

[DeeJay1001]

The fans are the achiles heel of that.

Fans can be replaced often for less than $20. Not a concern at all.

once the first dictator that comes around with crypto and can't have their assets frozen as punishment, as USA and Europe have done to many countries/dictators over the decades as a form of punishment, then the regulators will probably wake up and be like woops we messed up, and then ban it from their own said countries. but they aren't smart enough to do this until the first idiot dictator laughs in their face when the banks go to try to freeze their accounts.

It takes some impressive mental gymnastics to be as confused and mislead as you are.

 

[R-T-B]

Fans can be replaced often for less than $20. Not a concern at all.

It's a concern for me, but as you say only about a $20.00 one vs other used cards. Not a big one.

I was actually a fairly medium scale miner for a long time so I know what goes...

 

[awesomesauce]

Bitcoin price drop are too short and Will go up again soon. It will not last long enuff to make big difference in gpu prices. Will need something more sadly

 

[TheDeeGee]

I have no hope unless crypto get's banned globally.

 

[defaultluser]

No matter how much bitcoin falls, we will no longer see normal prices on video cards ...

We will once Etherium transitions to Proof-of-Stake.

But it will only last until they figure out the next GPU-Compute Coin to resume their wasted time on (but it could take awhile if everyone sells their GPUs to buy more Etherium)

This system has never been tried before (so it could have a longer-term-effect than any previous crypto crash has had.)

 

[Makaveli]

Mining GPUs are run at a constant temperature, rarely power or temperature cycled, and run far below maximum power. Not to mention the person running the mining card has alot more reason to keep that card in good condition than the average gamer. I would choose an ex-minig card, over a general use card every time without question.

You are assuming all miners are the same with similar setups they are not. I've seen people with very crappy mining setups and they still sell their cards online. So that isn't a guarantee!

 

[MEC-777]

I think it's funny when ever bitcoin dips, and everyone thinks the crypto/mining world is falling. It ain't going anywhere, so don't get your hopes up. That's not how this works.

 

[Chrispy_]

Mining GPUs are run at a constant temperature, rarely power or temperature cycled, and run far below maximum power. Not to mention the person running the mining card has alot more reason to keep that card in good condition than the average gamer. I would choose an ex-minig card, over a general use card every time without question.

100% this.
I'll be selling my mining GPUs with correctly-flashed original BIOSes at some point and when looking for a used 3080Ti or 3090 for myself I will be choosing cards sold openly as ex-mining cards in preference to ones owned by gamers. A good card will be listed as an ex-mining card along with the type of coin it was mining, when the last repad was performed, whether it's had a fan replacement etc. In the past I've posted images of the rigs they came out of before removing them and that seemed to secure a very high amount of interest from buyers - far more than when I sold my non-mining vega56 at around the same time.

Mine have been maintained, cooled and looked after far better than the poor workhorses in my gaming rigs. For me the fact that they've had a constant, stable, workload without thermal cycling and have run undervolted their entire life is a serious benefit to the remaining lifespan of the card.

 

[windwhirl]

I think it's funny when ever bitcoin dips, and everyone thinks the crypto/mining world is falling. It ain't going anywhere, so don't get your hopes up. That's not how this works.

This.
If you want crypto to actually fall, ban it everywhere. That's the only way.