Editorial NVIDIA to Cut Down TSMC 5nm Orders with the Crypto Gravy Train Derailed, AMD Could Benefit

[btarunr]

NVIDIA is reportedly looking to reduce orders for 5 nm wafers from TSMC as it anticipates a significant drop in demand from both gamers and crypto-currency miners. Miners are flooding the market with used GeForce RTX 30-series graphics cards, which gamers are all too happy to buy, affecting NVIDIA's sales to both segments of the market. Before the crypto-currency crash of Q1-2022, NVIDIA had projected good sales of its next-generation GeForce GPUs, and prospectively placed orders for a large allocation of 5 nm wafers from TSMC. The company had switched back over to TSMC from Samsung, which makes 8 nm GPUs from the RTX 30-series.

With NVIDIA changing its mind on 5 nm orders, it is at the mercy of TSMC, which has made those allocations (and now faces a loss). It's incumbent on NVIDIA to find a replacement customer for the 5 nm volumes it wants to back out from. Chiakokhua (aka Retired Engineer), interpreted a DigiTimes article originally written in Chinese, which says that NVIDIA has made pre-payments to TSMC for its 5 nm allocation, and now wants to withdraw from some of it. TSMC is unwilling to budge—it could at best hold off shipments by a quarter to Q1-2023, allowing NVIDIA to get the market to digest inventory of 8 nm GPUs; and NVIDIA is responsible for finding replacement customers for the cancelled allocation.



The same article paints a different picture for AMD: the company has reduced orders for 7 nm and 6 nm nodes; but its 5 nm orders are unaffected. AMD makes not its its next-generation RDNA3 GPUs on 5 nm, but also its next-generation "Zen 4" CPU chiplets. Any drop in demand for GPU silicon would be internally adjusted by increasing "Zen 4" chiplet orders. AMD's growth as a processor manufacturer is no longer bottlenecked by technology-leadership, but by volumes. The company could jump at the prospect of higher 5 nm allocation, as it would enable it to increase output of "Zen 4" processors to meet rising demand of high-margin server processors with its upcoming EPYC "Genoa" and "Bergamo" processors.

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[Bomby569]

how can AMD benefit? the problem is the same for both of them

 

[ncrs]

how can AMD benefit? the problem is the same for both of them

By ordering more CPU capacity, those are barely affected by crypto and EPYC is in high demand.

 

[Wirko]

AMD needs TSMC's N6 for Zen 4 I/O dies (consumer and server), mobile Ryzen 6000, and the RX 6500 XT, right? Why would they be reducing their orders?

 

[john_]

Considering that Nvidia is using a version of TSMC's 5nm tailored for them, if I am not mistaken, can AMD really take advantage of Nvidia misfortune to only be a GPU manufacturer? Is Nvidia's special node compatible with AMD's designs?

 

[Space Lynx]

even before crypto was a thing we suffered from paper launches all the time... really fucking annoying. demand will still be strong, hell the FE editions of the RTX cards on Best Buy are still sold out on a regular basis... this is a dumb move by Nvidia and all the more reason I want an all AMD system.

 

[Bomby569]

even before crypto was a thing we suffered from paper launches all the time... really fucking annoying. demand will still be strong, hell the FE editions of the RTX cards on Best Buy are still sold out on a regular basis... this is a dumb move by Nvidia and all the more reason I want an all AMD system.

that was covid, nothing to do, now are different times and the market is saturated with used gpu's, it's a thing you just have to look on your local marketplace, and prices keep falling as they want to offload their mining crap

 

[Daven]

how can AMD benefit? the problem is the same for both of them

CPUs

 

[Wirko]

Considering that Nvidia is using a version of TSMC's 5nm tailored for them, if I am not mistaken, can AMD really take advantage of Nvidia misfortune to only be a GPU manufacturer? Is Nvidia's special node compatible with AMD's designs?

How much tailored is it, do we have any details? It might be just the number of metal layers, for example.

 

[john_]

AMD needs TSMC's N6 for Zen 4 I/O dies (consumer and server), mobile Ryzen 6000, and the RX 6500 XT, right? Why would they be reducing their orders?

Have you seen plenty of Ryzen 6000 laptops? I haven't and I was really wanted a 6000 based one. I quit waiting and gone for a 5600U.
6500XT is a low cost GPU for the low end market. AMD doesn't really cares to flood the market with that GPU. And that GPU is a mobile one, that AMD put on the PCB of a desktop product. This could be another indication that AMD's plans in the mobile market hit a wall or something. Ryzen 6000 should have been everywhere thanks to that RDNA2 iGPU, but where are those laptops?
So maybe AMD only really needs 6nm capacity for the I/O dies.

 

[Bomby569]

Considering that Nvidia is using a version of TSMC's 5nm tailored for them, if I am not mistaken, can AMD really take advantage of Nvidia misfortune to only be a GPU manufacturer? Is Nvidia's special node compatible with AMD's designs?

i think this is just raw capaicity we are talking about, the specific for each client is done later

 

[Daven]

Considering that Nvidia is using a version of TSMC's 5nm tailored for them, if I am not mistaken, can AMD really take advantage of Nvidia misfortune to only be a GPU manufacturer? Is Nvidia's special node compatible with AMD's designs?

Its fab capacity that‘s at issue. I assume the same ASML machines can be used for slightly different nodes.

 

[robert3892]

If AMD can manage to pick up more 5nm production they will benefit from enough business and consumer CPU stock.

 

[Bomby569]

I still think it the coming recession bough EPYC or RYZEN will sell a lot less then predicted by AMD and they probably will never use their own quota let alone buy more. But this is my pessimism about the world economy talking.

 

[john_]

even before crypto was a thing we suffered from paper launches all the time... really fucking annoying. demand will still be strong, hell the FE editions of the RTX cards on Best Buy are still sold out on a regular basis... this is a dumb move by Nvidia and all the more reason I want an all AMD system.

Nvidia wanted to start with the hi end, hi priced models first. RTX 4090, 4080 and latter 4070. Because of the global recession we are facing, as a result of the whole situation in Ukraine, people will be less willing to pay those amounts of money for Nvidia hi end RTX 4000 models. And probably with all those RTX 3000 models in the market, Nvidia was probably targeting really high prices. People where thinking $500-$600 for the 4070, I was thinking more like $799-$899 for that model.

i think this is just raw capaicity we are talking about, the specific for each client is done later

Its fab capacity that‘s at issue. I assume the same ASML machines can be used for slightly different nodes.

Don't know if this is so simple. If you need to bake a different type of bread, probably you need to buy different type of flour. It's not just capacity in the oven.

 

[Bomby569]

Don't know if this is so simple. If you need to bake a different type of bread, probably you need to buy different type of flour. It's not just capacity in the oven.

the bottleneck at TSMC or even Samsung is the EUV machines that cost millions of dollars each (and it's not even about money there is a waiting list to get them), but honestly i can't say for sure it's a very complex process

 

[john_]

I still think it the coming recession bough EPYC or RYZEN will sell a lot less then predicted by AMD and they probably will never use their own quota let alone buy more. But this is my pessimism about the world economy talking.

Ryzen yes, EPYC no. EPYC will keep selling strong. Huge companies and governments building super computers, do not react to a recession like consumers. They will keep expanding their servers and keep building super computers because of modern needs. The world is moving year after year in a more digital era where more servers and higher computation power is always needed.

the bottleneck at TSMC or even Samsung is the EUV machines that cost millions of dollars each (and it's not even about money there is a waiting list to get them), but honestly i can't say for sure it's a very complex process

Maybe it's just Nvidia marketing, but seeing that other companies do not seem to advertise "special nodes" for themselves, probably is not something cheap and easy.

 

[Vayra86]

This is Nvidia looking back at the fiasco called Pascal. When you deliver so many great cards to the market, and your next best thing is worse perf/dollar or taken over by miners... yep.

Nvidia has a Pascal problem, and its stock is plunging after earnings

Nvidia Corp. shares plunged in the extended session Thursday after the chipmaker’s earnings and outlook fell short of Wall Street estimates and revealed an...

www.marketwatch.com

We are also looking at an upcoming gen that is not receiving the best press. The biggest item is power consumption. And not in a good way. I think Nvidia is starting to see those margins shrink more than their die sizes, so this is damage control - the only way to sell meagre upgrades is creating artificial scarcity.. And meagre is what it is when the perf/dollar is barely moving gen to gen. Especially while power budgets explode.

Nvidia is officially 'for the miner' this and next gen. After all, they are now providing miners with more resale value.

RTX is fantastic innit...

 

[TheDeeGee]

"Miners are flooding the market with used GeForce RTX 30-series graphics cards, which gamers are all too happy to buy."

You're a ****ing idiot then, unless you been following the news about dodgy broken cards.

And why on earth would you help out the people that bought GPUs by the pallets to make an easy buck. Let them choke on them.

 

[Metroid]

The greatest nvidia competitor here is nvidia itself, crypto miners bought a lot of gpus and now that most of them never got their return of investment and are selling their gpus much lower than what they paid to recoup some of their money invested, rtx 3080 second hand market will be around 400 usd and nobody will buy from the shop at 700 usd. There is always something that happens to balance things again, after a pump comes a dump. Anyway, crypto miners were warned that everything would crash and go to hehell and most just ignored the fact and now most are rushing to sell their useless overused gpu trash to sheeps/peasants.

 

[ratirt]

significant drop in demand from both gamers and crypto-currency miners

Yeah gamers, we all know it's all about crypto since it is currently falling from a cliff.

 

[Bomby569]

"Miners are flooding the market with used GeForce RTX 30-series graphics cards, which gamers are all too happy to buy."

You're a ****ing idiot then, unless you been following the news about dodgy broken cards.

And why on earth would you help out the people that bought GPUs by the pallets to make an easy buck. Let them choke on them.

this is not about "us" or anyone in particular, but have no doubt this cards will all find a new owner it's all a question of price

 

[Metroid]

This is Nvidia looking back at the fiasco called Pascal. When you deliver so many great cards to the market, and your next best thing is worse perf/dollar or taken over by miners... yep.

Nvidia has a Pascal problem, and its stock is plunging after earnings

Nvidia Corp. shares plunged in the extended session Thursday after the chipmaker’s earnings and outlook fell short of Wall Street estimates and revealed an...

www.marketwatch.com

We are also looking at an upcoming gen that is not receiving the best press. The biggest item is power consumption. And not in a good way. I think Nvidia is starting to see those margins shrink more than their die sizes, so this is damage control - the only way to sell meagre upgrades is creating artificial scarcity.. And meagre is what it is when the perf/dollar is barely moving gen to gen. Especially while power budgets explode.

Nvidia is officially 'for the miner' this and next gen. After all, they are now providing miners with more resale value.

RTX is fantastic innit...

It's funny, nvidia even created lhr to reduce miners to buy gpus and now miners are not buying gpus anymore even though lhr was disabled and then nvidia is once again blaming miners as they have to go back on their own word for 5nm, what a bs, stand up for once nvidia, stop blaming people for your own bs. So I would like to know and ask nvidia why they locked gpus with lhr if miners were the greatest source of their sales? so it was all bs after all, as always dont ever trust nvidia and any company for that matter. The last crypto crash in 2018 was the same, nothing new.

 

[Bomby569]

It's funny, nvidia even created lhr to reduce miners to buy gpus and now miners are not buying gpus anymore even though lhr was disabled and then nvidia is once again blaming miners as they have to go back on their own word for 5nm, what a bs, stand up for once nvidia, stop blaming people for your own bs. So I would like to know and ask nvidia why they locked gpus with lhr if miners were the greatest source of their sales? so it was all bs after all, as always dont ever trust nvidia and any company for that matter. The last crypto crash in 2018 was the same, nothing new.

i only have my card because it was a LHR so i i'm glad they did it. I have absolutely no problem with it being LHR

 

[Sabotaged_Enigma]

"Don't act like you don't know
You know what I came for
Too late to turn back
This is the payback" from song Payback

All the nv bullshit of CMP for miners and GeForce for gamers and saying they care about gamers now choke themselves. Certainly no pity or mercy at all. All nv are suffering now are well deserved.