Editorial NVIDIA to Cut Down TSMC 5nm Orders with the Crypto Gravy Train Derailed, AMD Could Benefit

[TheUn4seen]

Do yourself a favor and dont buy used mining gear. Its all to often abused. No warranty and suddenly its dead next year. Surprise surprise....said no one.

In most cases it's the other way around. Would you rather buy a card which was never properly maintained and worked in dirty environment with a high number of thermal cycles, i.e. a card used by a "gamer", or one which has low number of cycles, was repadded and repasted at least once and worked in controlled environment, a card used in a properly maintained cryptocurrency farm? People tend to care for tools more than for toys. Temperature changes kill hardware much faster than stable, even high, temperature.

nVidia just wants to limit supply to keep prices high, based on this and the fact that their main competitor seems to be their own previous generation I'd hazard a guess that Ada will be noticeably faster and disproportionally more expensive.

 

[Shatun_Bear]

I know all stocks have plunged but holy mackerel Nvidia's share price has lost 50% of its value in around a year.

I look forward to their reckoning after their greedy practises of the last 3-4 year.

 

[Dr. Dro]

In most cases it's the other way around. Would you rather buy a card which was never properly maintained and worked in dirty environment with a high number of thermal cycles, i.e. a card used by a "gamer", or one which has low number of cycles, was repadded and repasted at least once and worked in controlled environment, a card used in a properly maintained cryptocurrency farm? People tend to care for tools more than for toys. Temperature changes kill hardware much faster than stable, even high, temperature.

nVidia just wants to limit supply to keep prices high, based on this and the fact that their main competitor seems to be their own previous generation I'd hazard a guess that Ada will be noticeably faster and disproportionally more expensive.

I'm not sure who came up with this notion that it's gamers' cards that are dirty and that they are "thermally cycled" (because this is normal, mind you, it's not like gamers' GPUs are being subjected to thermal shock, which is a completely different thing), and that every miner keeps their hardware 1. undervolted, 2. in a pristine clean environment and 3. with expensive air-conditioning (which mind you must overcome the amount of BTUs required to 1. cool the ambient and 2. dissipate the heat emitted by the hardware), because they simply do not. The cost of upkeeping such a facility far exceeds the cost of simply replacing hardware, especially when you've prepared the market beforehand so you dump the trash onto some "gamer" at the first signs of failure a hardware can give under extreme stress.

This was the lie spread very early on by miners in anticipation of a crash making their scheme unprofitable to ensure that they can double-dip by getting rid of the hardware, and that's all it ever was.

 

[Recus]

I know all stocks have plunged but holy mackerel Nvidia's share price has lost 50% of its value in around a year.

I look forward to their reckoning after their greedy practises of the last 3-4 year.

Let me guess others shares dropped for the lolz?

 

[Daven]

Let me guess others shares dropped for the lolz?

View attachment 253215

Shares are down to their 2 and in some cases 5 year lows across the board. No one here is going to prove anything using stocks except that the global economy is crashing again like it did in 2001 and again in 2008.

 

[RedBear]

By ordering more CPU capacity, those are barely affected by crypto and EPYC is in high demand.

They're not affected by cryptos, but over time they might get affected by inflation and the highly probable recession that is being predicted by most economists at this point. It makes sense for AMD to not reduce their 5nm CPU orders, but I wouldn't expect them to increase them, at this point. Ngreedia will choke on its own greediness, AMD won't help them.

 

[Dr_b_]

Did nVidia suddenly realize that there isn't a real market for overpriced GPUs?
-No more mining, or severely reduced, this is where the majority of the GPUs were going at the inflated prices
-People aren't cooped up inside post pandemic, and are now doing other things
-Everything is just more expensive, this is a lux item and an optional purchase, or people are just totally priced out of the market and have other priorities
-Power bills are not a joke, 600W cards are just stupid, consumers dont live in data centers which are equipped with the power and cooling necessary to run @ high wattage
-Prices are still too high on the ampere cards, or unavailable, best buy has no stock of 3070s FEs, its chronic, if you aren't around for a "Drop" then you can't buy one

Don't buy used miner eWaste, don't buy this 2+ year old generation of cards for overpriced retail, send an important message with your money

 

[DeathtoGnomes]

I would like to see TSMC stick it to nvidia and say no we wont reduce your order. After that Nvidia has to do something with the overstock, I'd guess consumers could see lower MSRPs than the last gen just to sell that extra chip stock. Likely begging AIB partners to sell, sell, sell.

 

[Patriot]

In most cases it's the other way around. Would you rather buy a card which was never properly maintained and worked in dirty environment with a high number of thermal cycles, i.e. a card used by a "gamer", or one which has low number of cycles, was repadded and repasted at least once and worked in controlled environment, a card used in a properly maintained cryptocurrency farm? People tend to care for tools more than for toys. Temperature changes kill hardware much faster than stable, even high, temperature.

nVidia just wants to limit supply to keep prices high, based on this and the fact that their main competitor seems to be their own previous generation I'd hazard a guess that Ada will be noticeably faster and disproportionally more expensive.

I would say that is the difference between the small miner and a whale. There are lot of small fish done in AC, I would not want any card that a seller has 100 of... they probably have not been cared for the same way as a smaller investment miner. So don't buy from third world sellers on ebay.

 

[PapaTaipei]

All the cryptotards that were flushed by the cryptocasino are gonna sell their overused GPUs at cheap. Not gonna buy any of them though.

 

[nguyen]

great news for would-be-buyers of next gen GPU

 

[Bwaze]

I wouldn't put it past Nvidia to just drag the release of next gen a couple of months if the miners really flood the second hand market with used Ampere cards.

It looks like Lovelace will come with a much higher power draw across the board, and most likely with a huge price hike (everything in a coming months will come with a price hike, money just isn't worth as much any more). So, not really appealing from the start, no matter the performance increase.

The last time we saw this was in 2018. Cryptocurrency crash in early spring, and miners were selling their barely used Pascal cards (GTX 1080, 1080 Ti) - most of them were only mining for a couple of months, overpaid them, then they were just hoping to get any return and were selling them cheaply. So we had months of cheap used cards, but prices in stores remained unreasonably high - at time I just thought retailers were drunk on high profits from late 2017 cryptohigh. Tur(d)ing, RTX 2080, was released in fall of 2018, with a worse price / performance ratio than Pascal - price hike was higher than performance increase (but you got to be a tester for a couple of games that tried raytracing and DLSS). That actually drove the prices of now dwindling used Pascal cards higher.

In hindsight I now think high retail prices of Pascal cards that just didn't return to MSRP throughout 2018 were a clear sign the next gen will be priced much higher - prices used to fall way below MSRP when the old gen was nearly 2 years old.

And I think we're seeing something similar now. I know we've all seen headlines "card prices falling, card prices at all time low", but for instance here in Europe cheapest "$699" (800 EUR with tax) RTX 3080 card is still 850 EUR. A year and a half after release. And that's for a gimped LHR vesion. And if it plays out exactly the same as in 2018, retail prices will remain that high all the way to much more expensive Lovelace release.

But I'm sure we'll see plenty of articles on how that's normal, expected, and actually a good thing.

 

[TheUn4seen]

I'm not sure who came up with this notion that it's gamers' cards that are dirty and that they are "thermally cycled" (because this is normal, mind you, it's not like gamers' GPUs are being subjected to thermal shock, which is a completely different thing), and that every miner keeps their hardware 1. undervolted, 2. in a pristine clean environment and 3. with expensive air-conditioning (which mind you must overcome the amount of BTUs required to 1. cool the ambient and 2. dissipate the heat emitted by the hardware), because they simply do not. The cost of upkeeping such a facility far exceeds the cost of simply replacing hardware, especially when you've prepared the market beforehand so you dump the trash onto some "gamer" at the first signs of failure a hardware can give under extreme stress.

This was the lie spread very early on by miners in anticipation of a crash making their scheme unprofitable to ensure that they can double-dip by getting rid of the hardware, and that's all it ever was.

Right now my card goes +/- 20°C just from the browser hardware acceleration kicking in for whatever reason. It's far from a thermal shock, but but adds up - every time I decide to waste some time by playing a game for a few minutes the card goes through power states like crazy. As for cleanliness, well, I've been to other people's homes. Not clean environment at all even considering me being a little bit of a neat freak with proper air filtration in every room. I'm talking about serious miners, ones putting their hardware in properly cooled and maintained facilities, not people just scrounging together some cards and throwing them in their garage. Those cards are just tools and if you can save a headache of going through warranty and losing money to downtime by performing half an hour of maintenance, why wouldn't you? Just replacing the hardware was, for quite some time, not really a viable option - if you could easily buy a GPU you would just add it to your pool, waiting for weeks for a warranty replacement was just losing money. Obviously there is a lot of dumping improperly used cards on fools, but there always was a lot of it between gamers, what I say is there is now a chance of getting a used GPU which was not used in a disgusting home environment, full of animal fur, dust and cigarette smoke.

 

[ModEl4]

If you check JPR Nvidia-AMD AiB GPU market shares, Nvidia/AMD ratio is higher the last year so Nvidia is increasing the gap vs AMD.
Also although many RDNA2 models are below SRP, Nvidia still is above supposedly less than 3 months away for Ada, so if Nvidia isn't happy with the sales are getting and has so much current gen stock why the prices are still so high? something doesn't add up!
According to rumors, NVIDIA has paid TSMC $1.64 billion in Q4 2021 to reserve 5nm capacity, with another $1.79 billion in Q1 2022.
Overall by the end of 2022 (5 quarters) supposedly the total ammount would be $9 billion.
According to Nvidia's earnings reports in Q3 2020 alone the spendings related to inventory purchases/ prepayments for future products was $2.54 billion, so draw your own conclusions.
Before 2 months there were rumors that Intel somehow secured 5nm TSMC capacity, so may it be Nvidia related?

 

[aciDev]

"Miners are flooding the market with used GeForce RTX 30-series graphics cards, which gamers are all too happy to buy."

You're a ****ing idiot then, unless you been following the news about dodgy broken cards.

And why on earth would you help out the people that bought GPUs by the pallets to make an easy buck. Let them choke on them.

And yet on ebay people are paying near MSRP prices for almost 2 years old non-LHR cards... those cards no one was able to buy at the time.

 

[Dimitriman]

Watch crypto market boom again after nvidia's new cards excel at mining and we once again go back to 0 gpus for gamers and $2000-$5000 scalper pricing.

 

[N3utro]

Watch crypto market boom again after nvidia's new cards excel at mining and we once again go back to 0 gpus for gamers and $2000-$5000 scalper pricing.

It doesn't work like that. More mining power doesn't equal to higher crypto market value.

On the topic: what nvidia is doing shows that they are indeed intentionally maintaining a shortage situation to maximize their profits. The only way that would work for them is if AMD would do the same, which they probably will. It doesn't takes too much to understand that nvidia and amd probably have secret agreements on this, which is completely illegal.

But as always the politicians are looking away on this because they are on the payroll. What a beautiful world we live in.

 

[Deleted member 24505]

I buy from any company, don't give a shit what they have "supposedly" done.

 

[chrcoluk]

I believe you're missing the die size. Big dies have always been expensive to make and for the past few generations, big dies are all we got

Not really a problem, I'm happy to keep my money until the mid range returns to the $200-300 range.

Looking at their balance sheet, there is room for reducing prices.

 

[ir_cow]

In most cases it's the other way around. Would you rather buy a card which was never properly maintained and worked in dirty environment with a high number of thermal cycles, i.e. a card used by a "gamer", or one which has low number of cycles, was repadded and repasted at least once and worked in controlled environment, a card used in a properly maintained cryptocurrency farm? People tend to care for tools more than for toys. Temperature changes kill hardware much faster than stable, even high, temperature.

nVidia just wants to limit supply to keep prices high, based on this and the fact that their main competitor seems to be their own previous generation I'd hazard a guess that Ada will be noticeably faster and disproportionally more expensive.

"maintained" you say. Thats a joke for mining cards.

 

[AusWolf]

With no more cryptomining, Nvidia doesn't care about filling store shelves with 40-series cards anymore. Utterly disgusting, but not unexpected.

 

[utmode]

I know all stocks have plunged but holy mackerel Nvidia's share price has lost 50% of its value in around a year.

I look forward to their reckoning after their greedy practises of the last 3-4 year.

you are right, as of now, YTD value from 300$ to 145$USD. Gee didn't know that.

 

[Space Lynx]

Shares are down to their 2 and in some cases 5 year lows across the board. No one here is going to prove anything using stocks except that the global economy is crashing again like it did in 2001 and again in 2008.

AMD shares used to be literally only one dollar like in 2015... $73 a share is still doing ok for them in all honesty.

I do wish they were not cutting production though, because regardless of mining, next gen graphics cards were always hard to get / sold out the first few months at launch, as far back as I can remember anyway. Creating artificial shortages seems to be the name of the game these days though.

 

[watzupken]

By ordering more CPU capacity, those are barely affected by crypto and EPYC is in high demand.

I feel lean and tough times are incoming. Most companies are already tightening their wallet, thus, I do expect a drop in demand for CPUs, especially after the explosive demand during the pandemic period. The impact to AMD may not be that bad because their supply is always very low as compared to the likes of Intel. Thus, it could be possible that AMD may capture more market share from Intel by offering the better value CPU.
In any case, I don’t believe Nvidia is the only company that will cut back on orders with TSMC. The likes of Intel will surely be badly affected because they have paid a substantial amount to TSMC to ”hijack” allocation. If Intel is using TSMC 5nm primarily for their ASIC and GPUs, this cannot be a worst time for them since they are paying a lot, but may not be getting the ROI that they expected.

With no more cryptomining, Nvidia doesn't care about filling store shelves with 40-series cards anymore. Utterly disgusting, but not unexpected.

I don’t want to burst your bubble, but this has always been the way profit seeking companies work. It makes no sense to fill the shelves and stores with GPUs that nobody is buying, which also puts pressure for you to lower prices. Computer hardware is not something cheap to produce, yet they depreciates really quickly. Just look at how much those RTX 3000 series cost a year back, and the expected value after RTX 4000 series arrives. Even without cryptomining skewing the prices, a last gen card quickly and substantially loses its value. And by the way, I am not defending Nvidia, but just pointing out the ugly truth.

 

[AusWolf]

I don’t want to burst your bubble, but this has always been the way profit seeking companies work. It makes no sense to fill the shelves and stores with GPUs that nobody is buying, which also puts pressure for you to lower prices. Computer hardware is not something cheap to produce, yet they depreciates really quickly. Just look at how much those RTX 3000 series cost a year back, and the expected value after RTX 4000 series arrives. Even without cryptomining skewing the prices, a last gen card quickly and substantially loses its value. And by the way, I am not defending Nvidia, but just pointing out the ugly truth.

That's why I said it's not unexpected.