U.S. Government Restricts Export of AI Compute GPUs to China and Russia (Affects NVIDIA, AMD, and Others)

[btarunr]

The U.S. Government has imposed restrictions on the export of AI compute GPUs to China and Russia without Government-authorization in the form of a waiver or a license. This impacts sales of products such as the NVIDIA A100, H100; AMD Instinct MI100, MI200; and the upcoming Intel "Ponte Vecchio," among others. The restrictions came to light when NVIDIA on Wednesday disclosed that it has received a Government notification about licensing requirements for export of its AI compute GPUs to Russia and China.

The notification doesn't specify the A100 and H100 by name, but defines AI inference performance thresholds to meet the licensing requirements. The Government wouldn't single out NVIDIA, and so competing products such as the AMD MI200 and the upcoming Intel Xe-HP "Ponte Vecchio" would fall within these restrictions. For NVIDIA, this is impacts $400 million in TAM, unless the Government licenses specific Russian and Chinese customers to purchase these GPUs from NVIDIA. Such trade restrictions usually come with riders to prevent resale or transshipment by companies outside the restricted region (eg: a distributor in a third waived country importing these chips in bulk and reselling them to these countries).



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[Flanker]

Gamers in China breathed a sigh of relief

 

[R-T-B]

Gamers in China breathed a sigh of relief

These are not gaming products at all.

 

[ymdhis]

Would be much more useful if they allowed it but put government backdoors in every chip. China and Russia has enough of an industry to start building their own silicon, and even if it's not-quite-as-good, they'll be able to get more and cheaper and independently of the west. You have to play the long game in this.

 

[btarunr]

How about if NVIDIA sells variants of these GPUs (same silicon) with 100 MHz engine clock (just to fall below the performance thresholds), and make it possible to "overclock" them?

 

[Hofnaerrchen]

And how do you restrict export of items to a country if these items are assembled in that country? You trust in that country to be honest not to acquire said GPUs secretly (wastage^^)? Almost every company in this branch has production facilities in China.

 

[GuiltySpark]

Didn't get what's this threshold measure exactly.

 

[john_]

AMD is not affected, financially, or at least not in this quarter, but all companies will lose sales in the future. AMD being also the smaller probably will find other buyers for it's products, buyers that would had to wait before, but will get a priority now, after these new restrictions.

I guess CPUs will follow.

 

[R0H1T]

And how do you restrict export of items to a country if these items are assembled in that country? You trust in that country to be honest not to acquire said GPUs secretly (wastage^^)? Almost every company in this branch has production facilities in China.

You don't, if China wants it they'll just get it one way or another even if it'll take more time!

 

[JoniISkandar]

Did america forget every electronic today is made in china

 

[R0H1T]

This is about official exports of tech(IP?) & products to China, Russia though obviously this won't stop them from acquiring them just like they did with the fab equipment.

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[R-T-B]

Did america forget every electronic today is made in china

If Taiwan is part of China, sure. Otherwise it's quite a split between them still, though obviously the majority is on the mainland.

You don't, if China wants it they'll just get it one way or another even if it'll take more time!

"Take more time" would be a win. Semiconductor development is a race. In a race stalling tactics work.

 

[pavle]

Oh so US gov. supported those same 2 countries for 50 years, but is now gonna limit exporting stuff to them; are they too big to handle? What a bunch of hypocrites!

 

[Wirko]

Would be much more useful if they allowed it but put government backdoors in every chip. China and Russia has enough of an industry to start building their own silicon, and even if it's not-quite-as-good, they'll be able to get more and cheaper and independently of the west. You have to play the long game in this.

Backdoors come as standard but they have been mostly useless since China started building the best firewalls.

 

[DeathtoGnomes]

Semiconductor development is a race. In a race stalling tactics work.

I dont think stalling is a tactic that was used much, and I cant see how that would actually work with China, its already leading in Semi-conductors and IP theft. Although the later trades in cash bailouts.

 

[GunShot]

Oh so US gov. supported those same 2 countries for 50 years, but is now gonna limit exporting stuff to them; are they too big to handle? What a bunch of hypocrites!

Bahaha! What?! Is your memory short or something?! You think you can just threaten, sanction high-ranking officials, etc. and there will not be any repercussions for your diluted actions?!

China, and Russia, has stated many of times that they will stop utilising the USs software and hardware (Window's PCs, etc.) by ~2025. I guess China's, etc. bluff has been called out now and their 2025 high-praise dependency came a few years too early unexpectedly.

 

[DeathtoGnomes]

I guess China's, etc. bluff has been called out now and their 2025 high-praise dependency came a few years too early unexpectedly.

Consider this a pre-emptive strike in the trade war.

 

[Upgrayedd]

These are not gaming products at all.

That's the point. Gamers are relieved.

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

How about if NVIDIA sells variants of these GPUs (same silicon) with 100 MHz engine clock (just to fall below the performance thresholds), and make it possible to "overclock" them?

Surely Nvidia wouldn't risk the backlash.

Can't believe they were selling to backwards autocrats anyway.

It's like sponsoring your own retirement tyranny, f that.

 

[Deleted member 185088]

That's why we need more competition from other countries to avoid stupid decisions like this from our brainless leaders.
On the bright side China is improving rapidly, in 5/10 years they could achieve parity, so we are less at the mercy of politics.

 

[ModEl4]

The Total Addressable Market for A100/H100 type of accelerators in a country such China can generate only $400 million annually?

 

[R0H1T]

It's just for Nvidia & likely a very conservative estimate, China is probably the biggest market for AI right now especially with their 24*7 surveillance.

 

[ModEl4]

It's just for Nvidia & likely a very conservative estimate, China is probably the biggest market for AI right now especially with their 24*7 surveillance.

Even if it was the possible annual revenue that only Nvidia can possibly generate, since Nvidia owns around 80% of AI focused datacenters marker, we are talking around $500 million instead of $400, it don't have a clue but it seems small.
It is said from analysts, according to estimations, that Nvidia had $3.2 billion revenue in 2020 from AI datacenter business while the global market for AI accelerators was around $4 billion and the forecast was that the market is going to double per 2year cycle at least until 2026, so maybe 2022 or 2023 TAM $8 billion with Nvidia if it retains the 80% share 6.4billion prospect, so global Nvidia market up to $6.4 billion and China only $400 million?

 

[Easo]

I am always torn on these cases. On one hand - morally right, China and not to mention Russia clearly are not our friends and should not get the upper hand, on the other - this is just USA trying keep it's dominance with brute force tactics.