AMD Trims Q3 Forecast, $1 Billion Missing, Client Processor Revenue down 40%, Halved Quarter-over-Quarter

[Valantar]

"Projects" that were under development before she became CEO.

Nice try. NOT!

So, CPU and GPU architectural development cycles run ~2-5 years, depending on if it's a ground-up development or a refinement of an existing architecture. RDNA launched in 2019; Zen2 launched in 2019. Zen3 in 2020, Zen4 in 2022, RDNA2 in 2020, RDNA3 in 2022. Dr. Su became CEO of AMD in 2014. That's 5 years before the earliest of these - meaning that at most, these projects had been thought of before she took over. Literally none of them had started before she took over. So ... yeah. I guess nice try on your part too?

Early Zen (1) development started in 2012. Zen2 was a major revision on Zen1, meaning that it couldn't even be started until the overall Zen1 architecture was finalized. It could obviously start well before they had functioning silicon, but that's something that happens late in development anyway. So, unless you count the idea of there being a further development of Zen1 as Zen2 being "under development", then there is literally no way that project started before Dr. Su took over as CEO.

 

[GunShot]

Is it actually difficult for you to grasp the simple fact that stock markets are organized gambling rings for the wealthy, and that any link between stock valuations, market cap and other stock-based metrics and the actual real-world value of the company is very tenuous at best?

Bahahaha!

You must resides in a 3rd-world country.

So, CPU and GPU architectural development cycles run ~2-5 years, depending on if it's a ground-up development or a refinement of an existing architecture. RDNA launched in 2019; Zen2 launched in 2019. Zen3 in 2020, Zen4 in 2022, RDNA2 in 2020, RDNA3 in 2022. Dr. Su became CEO of AMD in 2014. That's 5 years before the earliest of these - meaning that at most, these projects had been thought of before she took over. Literally none of them had started before she took over. So ... yeah. I guess nice try on your part too?

What?! You just confirmed that you're clueless.

 

[Valantar]

Bahahaha!

You must resides in a 3rd-world country.

No, I just have some understanding of global economics and how capitalism operates.

Always fun when someone has such a fundamental lack of arguments for their view that they turn to ad hominems almost immediately. Almost as if, oh, I don't know, you're just spouting BS. Almost.

What?! You just confirmed that you're clueless.

I did? Ah, good, so you have some sort of source to prove so, then?

 

[Palladium]

I'm sure keeping those AM5 mobos very hilariously overpriced will solve that in Q4!

 

[Valantar]

I'm sure keeping those AM5 mobos very hilariously overpriced will solve that in Q4!

That money doesn't go to AMD though - it's not like there are massive licensing costs attached to making and selling a compatible motherboard.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

Bahahaha!

You must resides in a 3rd-world country.


What?! You just confirmed that you're clueless.

Support your premises. Insults and condescending laughter are poor arguments.

 

[Valantar]

Support your premises. Insults and condescending laughter are poor arguments.

One might even say they are direct proof of an absence of arguments. Which begs the question of what these beliefs are based on at all.

 

[GunShot]

No, I just have some understanding of global economics and how capitalism operates.

Always fun when someone has such a fundamental lack of arguments for their view that they turn to ad hominems almost immediately. Almost as if, oh, I don't know, you're just spouting BS. Almost.


I did? Ah, good, so you have some sort of source to prove so, then?

Misunderstanding?! Yeah, I agree.

Oh... it get's richer, yo. You provide nothing but Wikipedia, etc. BS vomit WITH NO SOURCE, but you have the audacity to ask me to provide you a source?!

Bahahaha!

Does it work that way in your 3rd-world uhm... territory too?!

 

[the54thvoid]

Stop the arguing and stop being needlessly personal.

 

[Darmok N Jalad]

I don’t understand some of the arguments being employed here. Even if a project was started before a CEO came into position, it is still their job to see that any of those projects make it to completion, ideally on time. AMD has executed rather well, especially compared to pre-Su times. It’s not all her doing, mind you, but she’s the captain of the ship.

Besides this, why would someone root for any of these companies to fail? Do we want “our team” to win, or to have the best products available to us at reasonable prices? Just to get one-up on a group of internet strangers isn’t a good reason, IMO.

 

[RedelZaVedno]

Lisa wanted us on a milking table with Zen 4, now the joke's on her.
Jensen's Lovelace is next in the line to fail miserably as millions of 2nd hand Amperes flood the market.
Their unlimited greed has hit stagflation reality wall. Milking times are over, let them suffer.

 

[Hofnaerrchen]

Maybe the tech companies should focus even more on highly energy efficient products instead of increasing performance by all means. I am quite dissappointed by the Zen 4 generation so far but - as I am not using my PC for professional applications - this is not a big deal for me: I will defenitely skip this generation and maybe even the next.

Especially in the entertainment sector (average user assumed) it would make more sense to reduce power consumption and increasing performance by just a small margin - a new generation with improved feature set that can handle RT better or has specialized cores that will benefit upscaling technologies/AI (Skynet?!?^^) but does not increase overall power consumption would be enough in my opinion - sure higher fps are a selling point, but just because customers were told over and over again (almost like training an AI). It just needs a turn in the right direction to change that perception. In my experience rasterization performance is already good enough for almost all games on high/very high settings. Higher settings improve image quality only by a small margin but cost alot of performance.

I will not go into further detail but I think the current crisis might also be a major factor that has an impact on sales of "luxury" products like CPUs/GPUs nobody really needs for above mentioned reasons. And raising prices will not improve the situation either.

 

[RedelZaVedno]

Maybe the tech companies should focus even more on highly energy efficient products instead of increasing performance by all means. I am quite dissappointed by the Zen 4 generation so far but - as I am not using my PC for professional applications - this is not a big deal for me: I will defenitely skip this generation and maybe even the next.

Especially in the entertainment sector (average user assumed) it would make more sense to reduce power consumption and increasing performance by just a small margin - a new generation with improved feature set that can handle RT better or has specialized cores that will benefit upscaling technologies/AI (Skynet?!?^^) but does not increase overall power consumption would be enough in my opinion - sure higher fps are a selling point, but just because customers were told over and over again (almost like training an AI). It just needs a turn in the right direction to change that perception. In my experience rasterization performance is already good enough for almost all games on high/very high settings. Higher settings improve image quality only by a small margin but cost alot of performance.

I will not go into further detail but I think the current crisis might also be a major factor that has an impact on sales of "luxury" products like CPUs/GPUs nobody really needs for above mentioned reasons. And raising prices will not improve the situation either.

TBH, you can run Zen4 in eco mode (aka 65W power limit) and get only 3-10% performance hit in games. Zen4 is very efficient, it's the pricing of the whole AM5 platform that sucks big time.

 

[Tek-Check]

No wonder with the shortage basically gone, and the new stuff being overpriced. AM5 sales numbers are very low from what I have seen...

AMD doesn't expect a rapid adoption of AM5. It's a process and premium platform offer. They still have AM4 sales going well at all retailers. So, it will be two platform offer for some time, until prices become more reasonable.

 

[Valantar]

TBH, you can run Zen4 in eco mode (aka 65W power limit) and get only 3-10% performance hit in games. Zen4 is very efficient, it's the pricing of the whole AM5 platform that sucks big time.

And, of course, every architecture is optimized for efficiency already, as that's how you get higher performance at any given power level. That current architectures are also ballooning in power just demonstrates that both AMD and Intel are currently struggling to increase efficiency sufficiently to stay competitive on that basis alone. Which just shows how there's a fundamental contradiction between a competitive market situation and efficiency, as performance (or, more precisely, an oversimplified game of benchmark one-upmanship) will always be a more compelling selling point unless efficiency can be framed practically (like with battery life in laptops).

 

[RandallFlagg]

And, of course, every architecture is optimized for efficiency already, as that's how you get higher performance at any given power level. That current architectures are also ballooning in power just demonstrates that both AMD and Intel are currently struggling to increase efficiency sufficiently to stay competitive on that basis alone. Which just shows how there's a fundamental contradiction between a competitive market situation and efficiency, as performance (or, more precisely, an oversimplified game of benchmark one-upmanship) will always be a more compelling selling point unless efficiency can be framed practically (like with battery life in laptops).

That's something a lot of people don't get. Speaking as an engineer, while efficiency and performance are not the same, they are very closely related and excluding other constraints (like materials ability to handle heat or force) efficiency defines maximum performance. That over-arching thing hasn't changed for eons.

A cave man might be able to make a wheel with a wooden bearing that is not lubricated and turn it at 60 RPM with enough power and the right tree. But add some animal fat to that wheel bearing and it can be turned at that speed with less effort, and last far longer, making it more efficient. It can also be turned much faster, giving it far more performance, for perhaps the same effort. i.e. Performance is more about how you use your efficiency.

 

[maxfly]

This is going to be the new normal for everything tech. Market, profit retraction either due to the crypto crash and or belt tightening worldwide. Notice I left the R word out. That's to scary to ponder. It's going to get worse for the entire tech sector before it gets better. The only tech companies that may grow significantly in the next few years, aren't the kind we generally pay attention to.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Down almost 12% at the moment. I still think it's too high. Idk wtf the market was smoking when they sent it to $140 a share.

 

[Garrus]

Maybe the tech companies should focus even more on highly energy efficient products instead of increasing performance by all means. I am quite dissappointed by the Zen 4 generation so far but - as I am not using my PC for professional applications - this is not a big deal for me: I will defenitely skip this generation and maybe even the next.

Especially in the entertainment sector (average user assumed) it would make more sense to reduce power consumption and increasing performance by just a small margin - a new generation with improved feature set that can handle RT better or has specialized cores that will benefit upscaling technologies/AI (Skynet?!?^^) but does not increase overall power consumption would be enough in my opinion - sure higher fps are a selling point, but just because customers were told over and over again (almost like training an AI). It just needs a turn in the right direction to change that perception. In my experience rasterization performance is already good enough for almost all games on high/very high settings. Higher settings improve image quality only by a small margin but cost alot of performance.

I will not go into further detail but I think the current crisis might also be a major factor that has an impact on sales of "luxury" products like CPUs/GPUs nobody really needs for above mentioned reasons. And raising prices will not improve the situation either.

You're making a mistake there. Zen4 is way more efficient than older Zen architectures. All you have to do is set it to eco mode, don't run the chip at stock. Voila. More performance and less power use. I think the default settings have confused people. 5nm and Zen4 is still way more efficient, even if they don't run it that way, for competitive purposes (they want to look good compared to Intel and charge more money for their performance).

 

[noel_fs]

Like someone else said, these companies need to readjust their expectations and get real. People are not gonna keep buying mid tier gpu's for 500$ every year.

 

[R0H1T]

Those "potential" numbers will be missed... by a lot, so, you're are incredible wrong here. And the bleeding is just getting started for AMD! Oh, BTW, all metrics matters when a company is being evaluated.

These are still projections & we don't know the extent of the purported miss! For earnings the market cap is as relevant as one asking his SO about their grandparents' wages during the Bronze age i.e. totally worthless

When you're buying a phone do you also look at Samsung/Apple/BBK/Xiaomi's market cap

 

[Chrispy_]

as millions of 2nd hand Amperes flood the market.

I'm waiting (with open arms) to welcome this coming flood.

I've been waiting 3 weeks so far, no cheapo Ampere cards in sight yet - everything's pretty much still within 10% of the full MSRP from 2 years ago.

 

[Upgrayedd]

When you're buying a phone do you also look at Samsung/Apple/BBK/Xiaomi's market cap

you better be, I used to like LG phones but it wasn't looking good for them so I went samsung so I could keep getting software updates. Now LG doesn't even make phones lol

 

[R0H1T]

LG didn't exit the phone business because of market cap, they weren't making any money there whilst many of their other businesses were doing just fine. But I'm (almost) sure you already knew that?

Your point may have been somewhat valid if they went belly up & didn't honor say warranty on them, but they're still delivering software updates what after 2 years? I know because I have a G8x thinQ & it's doing just fine!

LG G8X ThinQ Dual Screen review

The LG G8X premiered at IFA last September, but it's not an upgrade of the G8 headliner. The G8X is a reimagined version with a larger screen of lower...

www.gsmarena.com

 

[Valantar]

Down almost 12% at the moment. I still think it's too high. Idk wtf the market was smoking when they sent it to $140 a share.

Not smoking anything, just following the logic of the ... "special" form of organized gambling that stock markets are.

That's something a lot of people don't get. Speaking as an engineer, while efficiency and performance are not the same, they are very closely related and excluding other constraints (like materials ability to handle heat or force) efficiency defines maximum performance. That over-arching thing hasn't changed for eons.

A cave man might be able to make a wheel with a wooden bearing that is not lubricated and turn it at 60 RPM with enough power and the right tree. But add some animal fat to that wheel bearing and it can be turned at that speed with less effort, and last far longer, making it more efficient. It can also be turned much faster, giving it far more performance, for perhaps the same effort. i.e. Performance is more about how you use your efficiency.

Yeah, it's obvious really. If you have 90W of energy to spend, how do you get more performance? By spending those 90W more efficiently. It's literally the what the word means, after all. Of course any specific iteration of a design can be tuned towards being more or less efficient by changing other variables, but that's another question entirely - and where people get sidetracked, as first Intel went to 125W240W TDPs for K-SKU CPUs, and now AMD is following right in their footsteps with 170W230W high X-SKU CPUs - which are still architecturally more efficient than previous generations (for both brands), but are tuned to have higher absolute power consumptions, making their absolute efficiency (perf/W) into a more complicated comparison.

Still, IMO, we need CPU makers to step down to more sensible power levels at stock. 95-125W is fine for the high end, with an easily selectable cTDP-up mode for those wanting more. The performance differences are so small it really doesn't matter, and the power savings are meaningful at scale, while anyone really wanting those extra 5% of performance could get them easily still.