Industry Insider Predicts Steep SSD Price Climbs for Q1Y24

[T0@st]

An anonymous industry source has divulged a grim set of near-future circumstances to Tom's Hardware—they believe that "NAND packages consisting of four and eight NAND devices are already in short supply," thus causing an expected "skyrocketing" of prices within higher-capacity consumer SSD product lines. This sharp climb could happen within the first quarter of 2024, and the article outlines early warning signs—"price upticks are starting to show in retail already" as documented in graphs generated by CamelCamelCamel for a sampling consisting of three 2 TB NVMe models (Samsung 990 Pro, CORSAIR MP600 PRO LPX & Team Group MP44). Their analysis of this situation continued: "A single-sided SSD in an M.2-2280 form factor can carry four 3D NAND packages. Modern 2 TB and 4 TB drives in this form factor tend to use packages consisting of four or eight 3D NAND devices to ensure high performance. There is already a shortage of these packages today as SSD makers are struggling to find adequate supply."

Late summer going into the autumn of 2023 presented a great time to pick up SSD bargains, since manufacturers had flooded the market with far too much stock (following an oversupply of NAND units). The unnamed source believes that it could take two to three months for early 2024 NAND shortages to cause large ripple effects within consumer and enterprise markets. A January 9-dated TrendForce report proposes that NAND Flash contract prices are set to rise by 15 to 20% in Q1Y24, although Tom's Hardware reckons that this "acceptance of new rates is more likely among notebook makers." TrendForce anticipates enterprise SSD contract pricing to increase by roughly 18% - 23% within the first quarter of 2024.



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[Chaitanya]

So more sales slumps on the way with increased prices.

 

[Ravenmaster]

Sounds like manufacturers are about to shoot themselves in both feet

 

[lexluthermiester]

Sounds like manufacturers are about to shoot themselves in both feet

And they're smart enough to see that coming. I really doubt the NAND market prices are going to go into orbit..

 

[Solid State Soul ( SSS )]

i couldn't believe how cheap SSDs were in 2023, here in UAE a 500gb Samsung 870 Evo was 115ed, now its 225ed, wtf happened, these fuking ssd cartels must be stopped

 

[chodaboy19]

I've seen news about spot price for NAND going up for the past 12 months

 

[mechtech]

Got my LPX pro 600 4TB for $330 cad at black November. That’s my max limit I’m paying for 4TB “high end” drive.

 

[TheLostSwede]

i couldn't believe how cheap SSDs were in 2023, here in UAE a 500gb Samsung 870 Evo was 115ed, now its 225ed, wtf happened, these fuking ssd cartels must be stopped

Your anger is pointed in the wrong direction. The issue is the handful of companies that produce NAND flash, as they cut production due to "oversupply".

 

[maxfly]

Your anger is pointed in the wrong direction. The issue is the handful of companies that produce NAND flash, as they cut production due to "oversupply".

Exactly.

 

[Zareek]

Your anger is pointed in the wrong direction. The issue is the handful of companies that produce NAND flash, as they cut production due to "oversupply".

Yes, and they all just happen to cut supply simultaneously. That is a cartel. Maybe not an SSD cartel, but it is an NAND cartel. Most of these NAND companies also happen to be the same companies that have been caught price fixing DRAM multiple times. A coincidence, probably not! The times they've been caught price fixing DRAM, they've been fined millions, when they profit in the billions from the infraction. Hell, one guy from Samsung went to jail for eight months and was fined $250,000. He was promoted twice by Samsung following that.

 

[redeye]

already steep price increases… on amazon first than aliexpress. the fanxiang s770 4TB ssd is around 360-380 on amazon in January.
on aliexpress that same item was 270, (i bought it for 260 discounts). but it is now 330.
amazon raised the prices first.
then aliexpress shortly after i bought the 4TB.

the 4TB version is “slower” than the 2TB version in the ps5 format benchmark… 4TB 5883, 2TB 6466, a bit disappointed…

so they will Eventually align the prices of a pcie5 nvme with the pcie4 nvme’s… ROFL increase pcie4, decrease pcie5… lol

 

[las]

Yes, and they all just happen to cut supply simultaneously. That is a cartel. Maybe not an SSD cartel, but it is an NAND cartel. Most of these NAND companies also happen to be the same companies that have been caught price fixing DRAM multiple times. A coincidence, probably not! The times they've been caught price fixing DRAM, they've been fined millions, when they profit in the billions from the infraction. Hell, one guy from Samsung went to jail for eight months and was fined $250,000. He was promoted twice by Samsung following that.

Proof? I would see that movie

 

[lexluthermiester]

That is a cartel.

Can't disagree, and such would also be unlawful.

 

[TheLostSwede]

Yes, and they all just happen to cut supply simultaneously. That is a cartel. Maybe not an SSD cartel, but it is an NAND cartel. Most of these NAND companies also happen to be the same companies that have been caught price fixing DRAM multiple times. A coincidence, probably not! The times they've been caught price fixing DRAM, they've been fined millions, when they profit in the billions from the infraction. Hell, one guy from Samsung went to jail for eight months and was fined $250,000. He was promoted twice by Samsung following that.

I don't disagree with this, but the person I replied to was going after the companies making SSDs which sometimes are the same companies that are making the NAND, but far from always.

 

[Zareek]

I don't disagree with this, but the person I replied to was going after the companies making SSDs which sometimes are the same companies that are making the NAND, but far from always.

I figured that was what you were saying, I just felt the need to elaborate.

Proof? I would see that movie

Use Google, it's all out there. The profits and the penalties.

Here's a tidbit to get you started.

 

[kapone32]

4TB drives are still around $300 for what is in the channel. 5.0 drives are the new thing. I guess they are telling us that if you want 4 Tb of 5.0 be prepared to pay through the nose.