Nintendo Switch 2 Launch Window Reportedly Shifts to Early 2025

[T0@st]

Murmurings of a delayed Nintendo "Switch 2" release schedule appeared online earlier this week—Brazilian games journalist, Pedro Henrique Lutti Lippe, made claims during an "OX do Controle" videocast—based on insider information. Additionally, he broke the bad news on social media: "Nobody wants to hear this, but this one is pretty intense. After consulting five sources from three different continents, all echoing basically the same thing, we can reveal (that) the launch of the Switch's successor should only happen in 2025." Several global news outlets have performed their own investigations, following up on OX do Controle's declaration.

Eurogamer reached out to its network of "trusty" insiders—their Friday evening update stated that: "(we) can now corroborate the earlier reports/whispers that the Switch 2, once destined for release later in 2024, is now set for Q1 2025...The console's launch moving into early next year—but still within the coming financial year—is designed to ensure Switch 2's launch line-up features as many titles as possible, Eurogamer understands." Video Games Chronicle's Andy Robinson has similarly checked in with his pool of industry spies: "VGC has heard from multiple sources who said Nintendo has told publishers its next console will now launch in Q1 2025. According to the sources, third-party game companies were recently briefed on an internal delay in Nintendo's next-gen launch timing, from late 2024 to early the following year. One publishing source suggested the delay was so that Nintendo could prepare stronger first-party software for the console. It's possible the next-gen Nintendo console will now follow a similar timeline to the Switch, which was released in March but announced the previous year."




Robinson (VGC) has sent a request for an official statement on the matter, but Nintendo is unlikely to field a response (at least not over the weekend). Bloomberg's Japanese office has chipped in with their own findings, again covering similar ground, but narrowed in on Spring time: "Nintendo Co. is advising game publishers that its next-generation console will be delayed until the early months of 2025, according to people with knowledge of the matter...Nintendo has told some publishing executives not to expect the console until March 2025 at the earliest." Bloomberg reported that a Nintendo Japan spokesperson stated that the firm had "nothing to comment on." Prior to this week's calendar adjustment revelation, industry buzz had marked the Switch 2 games console down for a launch period within Q2 to Q4 2024—Nintendo has kept quiet on the matter, as expected. The company's CEO, Shuntaro Furukawa, recently declared that the current Switch model remains a "top priority" in 2024, and an October 2023 Nikkei interview revealed that Nintendo is committed to support its aging platform until March 2025.

The Switch's much anticipated successor has been linked to a custom NVIDIA Orin "T234" SoC—as far back as 2021. Leaked specifications include 12 Cortex-A78AE cores, LPDDR5 memory, and Ampere GPU microarchitecture—suggesting a significant performance uplift over the existing model's almost antique NVIDIA Tegra X1+ chipset. Many Nintendo enthusiasts will be questioning the firm's (rumored) decision to stick with a graphics technology that debuted around late 2020—the Tegra X1+ chip was not exactly a cutting edge part when the Switch first emerged at retail back in March 2017.

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[Space Lynx]

I bet that hurts some, they would have dominated the Christmas markets. Surprised they didn't push it anyway and just launch with one or two games, especially if they could still advertise it is backwards compatible...

 

[TheGoodDave]

Probably has a lot to do with the recent launch of Switch flash carts, as well. They have to devise a whole new cartridge ecosystem to prevent piracy, now that their current one is officially busted wide open.

 

[phil6891]

Probably has a lot to do with the recent launch of Switch flash carts, as well. They have to devise a whole new cartridge ecosystem to prevent piracy, now that their current one is officially busted wide open.

I would have surmised they'd resolved all the open and potential security loopholes by now.

 

[cvaldes]

The guess that Nintendo is waiting for more first-party titles to be ready for launch is the most plausible explanation.

Nintendo -- like Sony and Microsoft -- barely break even on console hardware sales. The lion's share of their profits come from software sales (i.e., game titles). Thus it is in their best interest to have a number of first-party titles from their most popular franchises available at launch.

Content is king. Having enough enticing new platform-exclusive games at launch will drive hardware sales not just 1-2 games plus "we have backward compatibility".

 

[sephiroth117]

It’s fine. Cool, cool, cool

it’s not like the switch 1 is one of the best console I ever owned and has an amazing game library

the Switch 2 is my most awaited 2024+ hardware and by far but it’s extremely important to release it with a solid line-up

 

[HOkay]

...but it’s extremely important to release it with a solid line-up

The more I think about this the less I think it's true. Do they really want a giant wave of demand at launch, or a slightly smaller, slightly more manageable wave? As long as they have some of the big hitter franchises coming to the Switch 2 within a year or so of launch then you could even argue that a slightly dampened launch could be beneficial to them. I figure the overall sales numbers of the console will probably be about the same either way.

 

[Klemc]

The question is: will it be able of RTX renderings ?

 

[HisDivineOrder]

The Switch 2 is going to be interesting to watch imo. I bought the first Switch on Day 1 because Nintendo promised me, "Home console quality games on the go," and for the first few years I really felt that even if it was more PS3 than PS4 quality. I don't think that gimmick is going to be the key to success like it was before. I don't think it can do well without backwards compatibility, but I also don't think Nintendo itself will do well without games for Switch 2 also coming out with versions for Switch. They got hooked on mega-million sales and it's going to be hard to explain to the investors, "Yeah, we could have made bajillions of dollars by selling this on both systems but we need Switch 2 to do well so we're just selling a million."

So I expect games to release for both the Switch and Switch 2 for the forseeable future, which will beg the question why should anyone rush to get a Switch 2. For PS4 graphics? That's great and all but we've been seeing that since before the Switch OLED launched when the Steam Deck was announced. Now I'm not saying the Steam Deck is going to beat the Switch 2 in sales. That'd be silly. I am saying though that the people who cared a LOT about graphics probably got a Steam Deck and the Steam Deck almost certainly beats the Switch 2 in graphical horsepower given the 8nm and two year old nvidia SOC it's built around (according to rumors).

So the reason I threw caution to the wind and bought a new console out the gate rather than wait for sales and/or more games to be available was because the gimmick was so strong. Home console-like gaming on the go was a great premise. I don't see them having a new vision for the platform like that unique and distinct from the original Switch. I suspect they'll just do Switch-but-better. If they do that without anything but graphics to sell it, I don't expect the same level of fanfare when it comes out. In that scenario, we're talking more 3DS from DS or Wii U from Wii than Switch from Wii U. An iterative improvement that gives little to the rest of the population that doesn't care as much about graphical power as those buying the Steam Deck did.

And if parents look at the Switch 2 and say, "But honey you already have a Switch and you can already game at home and on the go," then Nintendo won't see nearly the same uptake they saw with the Switch where the concept was clean, easy to read, and an easy sale.

I suspect they're blaming the launch library while they're really just skittish about having to end the Switch generation just when every game they release makes tens of millions in sales. They're stuck and they're afraid and the only reason they'd fall back on worrying over their launch library is exactly because they don't have a strong enough gimmick to pitch the system on its own imo. They only needed one amazing game to sell Switch after all and it wasn't even exclusive to Switch. They were fine killing Wii U sales because it was dead already. Making a Switch U after having hit such heights with the Switch has to keep them awake at night but unfortunately for them it's their pattern. They do this regularly. They hit heights, set expectations, and then fail to create a successor worthy to draw all the same people to buy in again. Instead, they seem to fail hard and barely by the skin of their teeth escape to create something new and weird that does well, which would seemingly not be this Switch 2.

Anyway, I can't wait to see what they announce. It's going to be very interesting seeing how it does against a market chock full of powerful handhelds, too.

 

[Dristun]

In that scenario, we're talking more 3DS from DS or Wii U from Wii than Switch from Wii U.

Agree with everything, except this. 3DS was a rather good money-printer for them, haha. Wii U was an abject failure in sales, sure, but not 3DS - that one made them millions. So these are two very, very different scenarios for Switch2 to follow.

If I were them, I'd also not release Switch2, looking at how great the sales are for their games. It becomes a bigger problem if they're already in manufacturing, of course, because then they're gonna be releasing even more outdated hardware than they initially planned.

 

[chrcoluk]

Are they going to be idiots and this thing has no BC with the switch then?

The library isnt so important if its BC, I got a feeling it wont be, especially if they changing the physical media.

I didnt buy the switch due to how they treated the wii-u, I invested in the wii-u the only Nintendo console I have ever owned aside from SNES, and their treatment of the platform was disgusting.

The switch has had success, but bizarrely cant play DS games? Which is another put off. Seems like I need a million consoles to play their modern library lol.

I suspect they're blaming the launch library while they're really just skittish about having to end the Switch generation just when every game they release makes tens of millions in sales. They're stuck and they're afraid and the only reason they'd fall back on worrying over their launch library is exactly because they don't have a strong enough gimmick to pitch the system on its own imo. They only needed one amazing game to sell Switch after all and it wasn't even exclusive to Switch. They were fine killing Wii U sales because it was dead already. Making a Switch U after having hit such heights with the Switch has to keep them awake at night but unfortunately for them it's their pattern. They do this regularly. They hit heights, set expectations, and then fail to create a successor worthy to draw all the same people to buy in again. Instead, they seem to fail hard and barely by the skin of their teeth escape to create something new and weird that does well, which would seemingly not be this Switch 2.

Anyway, I can't wait to see what they announce. It's going to be very interesting seeing how it does against a market chock full of powerful handhelds, too.

There is past examples of successors launched after successful generations whilst having no or limited BC and then just bombing, they should be skittish if there is no BC. The switch has never been about graphics, replacing it just seems utterly stupid to me, and only has any kind of sense if there is full BC. But even with BC, any games launched exclusive to the switch 2 are not sellable to switch owners.

 

[sephiroth117]

The more I think about this the less I think it's true. Do they really want a giant wave of demand at launch, or a slightly smaller, slightly more manageable wave? As long as they have some of the big hitter franchises coming to the Switch 2 within a year or so of launch then you could even argue that a slightly dampened launch could be beneficial to them. I figure the overall sales numbers of the console will probably be about the same either way.

Focus on 2017, they had an excellent year full of good games nearly each month. This is what built the momentum behind the humongous success of the switch.

And if we are to believe rumors, they are planning to have 10 million units, covid supply chain issues are a thing of the past now, making manageable wave is less a priority, what they need is to make the console adoption skyrocket so that exclusive switch 2 games can sell respectably well

I think it's far more interesting to release a console with a solid line-up, it did not serve the Xbox series X/S well to have that 2020/2021 line-up

 

[HOkay]

Focus on 2017, they had an excellent year full of good games nearly each month. This is what built the momentum behind the humongous success of the switch.

And if we are to believe rumors, they are planning to have 10 million units, covid supply chain issues are a thing of the past now, making manageable wave is less a priority, what they need is to make the console adoption skyrocket so that exclusive switch 2 games can sell respectably well

I think it's far more interesting to release a console with a solid line-up, it did not serve the Xbox series X/S well to have that 2020/2021 line-up

We can't know for sure how much of a contribution having good games for the first few months was for Switch sales, it's obviously going to help, but maybe they'd have sold just as many if they were spread out, if the curve was flattened so to speak I wonder what the console sales curve looks like versus other consoles actually, that would be really interesting. Most people I know didn't get a Switch on day 1, but that's obviously just anecdotal.

 

[SL2]

Super Switch is a more likely name, Nintendo isn't known for adding numbers for their successor models. (Color TV-Game/N64/3DS doesn't count)

What's in a name tho, who cares.

 

[mrnagant]

Switch is still selling well. If Nintendo wanted too, to increase sales, a $50 price drop would sling units and they'd still make a ton on hardware. I don't think they are concerned with a Q1 release because the Switch was very successful with a Q1 release. Would likely also minimize shortages if one released in Q4. Hardware won't sell by itself. Need games to sell hardware. Strong Q4 lineup is what will sell units, so make all the Q4 buzz around just your games.

 

[kondamin]

The guess that Nintendo is waiting for more first-party titles to be ready for launch is the most plausible explanation.

Nintendo -- like Sony and Microsoft -- barely break even on console hardware sales. The lion's share of their profits come from software sales (i.e., game titles). Thus it is in their best interest to have a number of first-party titles from their most popular franchises available at launch.

Content is king. Having enough enticing new platform-exclusive games at launch will drive hardware sales not just 1-2 games plus "we have backward compatibility".

Nintendo pics up hardware the moment the producer would retire it, I do not believe Nintendo makes a loss on anything they sell.
if you look at the build quality of the switch and the price its impossible for them to not make money on it.

 

[cvaldes]

Hell, Nintendo themselves admitted back in the Nineties that they make very little profit from the base console hardware. They also revealed that the average console owner at the time purchased seven game titles for each console generation, a sum total far greater than the console hardware itself.

From hardware sales, they make more money from peripheral sales (like extra Joy-con controllers, AC adapters, docks, whatever). And of course they make a *LOT* of money from merchandise.

Over time COGS will drop on the console hardware. At launch they might be losing a little money on each unit sold but as the manufacturing process matures and costs come down, gross margin will increase.

Both Sony and Microsoft also revise their console hardware mid-generation primarily to reduce COGS. Nothing new here for Fortune 500 caliber companies. Remember, a revised PlayStation 5 that weighs 50 grams less from a smaller heat sink is cheaper to ship. Multiply 50 grams by 10 million units and all of a sudden you reach 500,000 kg savings.