TSMC to Raise Wafer Prices by 10% in 2025, Customers Seemingly Agree

[AleksandarK]

Taiwanese semiconductor giant TSMC is reportedly planning to increase its wafer prices by up to 10% in 2025, according to a Morgan Stanley note cited by investor Eric Jhonsa. The move comes as demand for cutting-edge processors in smartphones, PCs, AI accelerators, and HPC continues to surge. Industry insiders reveal that TSMC's state-of-the-art 4 nm and 5 nm nodes, used for AI and HPC customers such as AMD, NVIDIA, and Intel, could see up to 10% price hikes. This increase would push the cost of 4 nm-class wafers from $18,000 to approximately $20,000, representing a significant 25% rise since early 2021 for some clients and an 11% rise from the last price hike. Talks about price hikes with major smartphone manufacturers like Apple have proven challenging, but there are indications that modest price increases are being accepted across the industry. Morgan Stanley analysts project a 4% average selling price increase for 3 nm wafers in 2025, which are currently priced at $20,000 or more per wafer.

Mature nodes like 16 nm are unlikely to see price increases due to sufficient capacity. However, TSMC is signaling potential shortages in leading-edge capacity to encourage customers to secure their allocations. Adding to the industry's challenges, advanced chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) packaging prices are expected to rise by 20% over the next two years, following previous increases in 2022 and 2023. TSMC aims to boost its gross margin to 53-54% by 2025, anticipating that customers will absorb these additional costs. The impact of these price hikes on end-user products remains uncertain. Competing foundries like Intel and Samsung may seize this opportunity to offer more competitive pricing, potentially prompting some chip designers to consider alternative manufacturing options. Additionally, TSMC's customers could reportedly be unable to secure their capacity allocation without "appreciating TSMC's value."



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[thesmokingman]

TSMC looks around seeing their customers are flipping their silicon from 50% to 80% margin... gets hint?

 

[Dristun]

TSMC looks around seeing their customers are flipping their silicon from 50% to 80% margin... gets hint?

Yeah, exactly. And why wouldn't the customers agree - they can just pass the price down the line and use the news as an excuse.

 

[kondamin]

So that is what they are guessing and hoping the real inflation rate will be at for the internationally traded USD will be

 

[ARF]

There is competition, these customers should move to Samsung, that is cheaper.

Vote with your wallets. Boycott these shenanigans.

 

[64K]

TSMC wants a piece of the AI mania. Why wouldn't they. Everyone else is trying to snatch those dollars while they are there for the taking. They will probably announce another price hike in not too long.

 

[P4-630]

My wafers are much cheaper and delicious too!...

 

[Jack1n]

They are the best at what they do, of course they should charge a premium.

 

[mb194dc]

It'll be quite interesting how this shaked out in a few years. Really need there be some end use applications for the state of the art node chips that justify the hype, or ???

 

[bonehead123]

My wafers are much cheaper and delicious too!...

So are mine, and they can be twisted apart to share with loved ones, and are available in many varieties too

 

[Steevo]

My wafers are much cheaper and delicious too!...

View attachment 354710

Much better at delicious factor crunch per wafer.

 

[ARF]

They are the best at what they do, of course they should charge a premium.

If you look at AMD's chiplets efforts, you will see that they use the older processes - N6, N7, N5, and they don't use the newer N2, N3 and N4.
Which means that AMD could very well use Samsung's corresponding processes (3GAE SF3E, 3GAP SF3, 4LPE SF4E, 4LPP SF4, 4LPP+ SF4P, 4HPC SF4X, 4LPA SF4U, 7LPP, 6LPP), and still get better products than what they currently offer.

 

[wNotyarD]

If you look at AMD's chiplets efforts, you will see that they use the older processes - N6, N7, N5, and they don't use the newer N2, N3 and N4.
Which means that AMD could very well use Samsung's corresponding processes (3GAE SF3E, 3GAP SF3, 4LPE SF4E, 4LPP SF4, 4LPP+ SF4P, 4HPC SF4X, 4LPA SF4U, 7LPP, 6LPP), and still get better products than what they currently offer.

Aren't Samsung nodes known to either consume more power and/or clock lower in comparison to their direct TSMC counterparts?

 

[Wirko]

Maybe the price rise is associated with improved yields and improved electrical characteristics, that's something to be expected after many months actually, but TSMC doesn't tell.

So are mine, and they can be twisted apart to share with loved ones, and are available in many varieties too

How are we supposed to cut those into chips when they don't come with grid lines?

 

[FoulOnWhite]

My wafers are much cheaper and delicious too!...

View attachment 354710

Nice i love these

Bet Intel won't even blink at the increase. They need TSMC.

 

[64K]

Bet Intel won't even blink at the increase. They need TSMC.

Apple, Intel, Nvidia....so many corporations depend on TSMC. TSMC must surely know they have the tech world by the balls right now and they can tighten their hand anytime they want to squeeze more billions out of them.

 

[thesmokingman]

Apple, Intel, Nvidia....so many corporations depend on TSMC. TSMC must surely know they have the tech world by the nuts right now and they can tighten their hand anytime they want to squeeze more billions out of them.

Also, inflation is starting to go down yet they're jacking up pricing.

 

[FoulOnWhite]

Apple, Intel, Nvidia....so many corporations depend on TSMC. TSMC must surely know they have the tech world by the balls right now and they can tighten their hand anytime they want to squeeze more billions out of them.

Unfortunatly it might squeeze out some that can't afford the rises.

 

[kondamin]

Aren't Samsung nodes known to either consume more power and/or clock lower in comparison to their direct TSMC counterparts?

Samsung was in the lead some years ago in power use, then they slipped.
Poor management practices... doesn't mean they will stay behind TSMC, same holds true for Intel, SMIC

If for some reason TSMC drops the ball for a couple of years they will no longer be #1
their n3 issues allowed intel to gain a bit on them already

 

[Caring1]

I thought WE were the customers, those other guys are just the middle men.

 

[natr0n]

My wafers are much cheaper and delicious too!...

View attachment 354710

I was gonna make a why not switch biscuits fabrication joke

 

[alwayssts]

There is competition, these customers should move to Samsung, that is cheaper.

Vote with your wallets. Boycott these shenanigans.

I've said for a while:

I truly think AMD should consider moving most of their output to Samsung 2nm. If Samsung can make a smartphone chip for the 2026 Galaxy, they *should* be able to make dang near anything AMD should need...in theory.

Now, I don't know how smoothly that is progressing; the yields nor the pricing, but given how long they will have been on GAAFET by that point (without BSPD), one would *think* yields should be decent, performance comparable to what's available for HPC at TSMC, and pricing advantageous. That's one of the advantages of going chiplet; in theory AMD could sneak into risk production on a node typically reserved for mobile (if they design toward a lower voltage and/or Samsung can produce chips that can take advantage of higher voltage from the beginning and/or close to it).

As I've also said, while when one looks at TSMC's roadmap they see things like N2P etc, remember Apple (if not then nVIDIA) typically has an entire generation on lock. So while some may look at the competitive landscape and question why anyone may use Samsung 2nm when TSMC's N2P/1xA is on the way, I would instead say it is a competitor to N3P. While I can't say for certain if it will have that level of performance/reliability (wrt voltage response), it would appear to be the case wrt at least density. I think that gives AMD, given their already-proven propensity towards parallelism and smaller chips, ntm optimized clocks, room to expand that mindset while perhaps creating more robust inherent hardware running at a lower voltage to maintain a respectful TDP (as nVIDIA has done for quite a while now), rather than continuing the 'higher-speed/smaller die size' GPU methodology.

But, like, IDK. That one guy from AMD (I know, specific and well-sourced...I apologize) said they're sticking with TSMC into the future. That may be that...but I still can't help but feel there's some perfect concoction of what they did with GloFo (really Samsung) 14nm...a 'Zen Moment'...if you will...or Polaris if you won't...mixed with chiplets...on Samsung 2nm. It just 'feels' like a good opportunity for someone to seize. It very-well might not be AMD and may be someone else (like Qualcomm), but I wouldn't rule it out as a realistic, if not tantalizing alternative (and way to keep prices down) versus TSMC.

 

[Philaphlous]

Meanwhile my grocery prices are up 350% and electricity prices up 33% from the prior year....

 

[kondamin]

I've said for a while:

I truly think AMD should consider moving most of their output to Samsung 2nm. If Samsung can make a smartphone chip for the 2026 Galaxy, they *should* be able to make dang near anything AMD should need...in theory.

Now, I don't know how smoothly that is progressing; the yields nor the pricing, but given how long they will have been on GAAFET by that point (without BSPD), one would *think* yields should be decent, performance comparable to what's available for HPC at TSMC, and pricing advantageous. That's one of the advantages of going chiplet; in theory AMD could sneak into risk production on a node typically reserved for mobile (if they design toward a lower voltage and/or Samsung can produce chips that can take advantage of higher voltage from the beginning and/or close to it).

As I've also said, while when one looks at TSMC's roadmap they see things like N2P etc, remember Apple (if not then nVIDIA) typically has an entire generation on lock. So while some may look at the competitive landscape and question why anyone may use Samsung 2nm when TSMC's N2P/1xA is on the way, I would instead say it is a competitor to N3P. While I can't say for certain if it will have that level of performance/reliability (wrt voltage response), it would appear to be the case wrt at least density. I think that gives AMD, given their already-proven propensity towards parallelism and smaller chips, ntm optimized clocks, room to expand that mindset while perhaps creating more robust inherent hardware running at a lower voltage to maintain a respectful TDP (as nVIDIA has done for quite a while now), rather than continuing the 'higher-speed/smaller die size' GPU methodology.

But, like, IDK. That one guy from AMD (I know, specific and well-sourced...I apologize) said they're sticking with TSMC into the future. That may be that...but I still can't help but feel there's some perfect concoction of what they did with GloFo (really Samsung) 14nm...a 'Zen Moment'...if you will...or Polaris if you won't...mixed with chiplets...on Samsung 2nm. It just 'feels' like a good opportunity for someone to seize. It very-well might not be AMD and may be someone else (like Qualcomm), but I wouldn't rule it out as a realistic, if not tantalizing alternative (and way to keep prices down) versus TSMC.

that's nice and all, if samsung gets their yields right, which they didn't for nvidia on the 6nm node

that and AMD is making plenty on their ryzen chips, they don't need to move to a different manufacturer to be able to lower prices, they don't have to why charge less if you don't have to...

 

[N/A]

So it's N6 N3B for ARL-S and Nvidia 50's (hopefully N3) +5/10%
it would be an insane 25% hike and that means trouble for ZEN5 on N4 and NAVI44 also on N4.