Well, this tactic backfired with me completely, so good luck to Microsoft keeping the bullshit flowing.
You, and many experienced users, might eventually find the way out, to either switch to Linux distro of their needs, or continue to use W10, without support, if their tasks and hobby requires so. But the absolute mass of people, would still be aggressively pushed towards the HW upgrade, in order to continue using their handcuffs. Many won't go further, because can't afford it. Many will buy cheapest, in order to continue their work/hobby. But for sure, most would be staggered, and confused.
Many would find the way to use Linux, just in spite, because it can be run even on a toaster, and has way lower requirements, than any recent, or distant Windows OS. So there's no need to upgrade already perfectly working hardware.
I would venture a guess that there are millions and millions of active PCs that can't upgrade to W11 because MS cut them off. We've seen it a few times before. Just because MS says a version of Windows is EOL, it doesn't mean people stop using it. Windows 10 is going to hang around like Windows XP and Windows 7 did. This time, it will probably be even worse, because those users have no upgrade path. What remains to be seen is what sort of messaging MS will apply to W10 at EOL, and how pervasive that will be.
Indeed. People just put too much of fear and attention to the so called "security".
Firstly, because the ones, who needs it, will continue to use it. Much like thousands of machines and equipment, used older version from WXP-to W7, in closed/offline environment, for years. The home users can also feel more or less safe, unless they do some deliberate exposure of their PCs to the dangerous environment, and suspicious web resources.
And secondly, because µ$ own stuff is already pretty suspicious and even dangerous, going on the fringe between explicit scam and malware, and so called "security"/"protection" measures, nobody can feel and be safe.
1. Windows 10
support is EOL. Windows 10 isn't. As long as you have it installed, or have the installer on a USB drive, you can keep using it until the end of times.
2. I don't think people with no desire or money to upgrade their old PCs have any more desire to upgrade Windows to a new version on their old PCs.
Exactly. MS is puushing to hard, but actually have the exaggerated expectations, if they think they can force people with no will or/and money, to go and upgrade. This might be the case, if people will install the W11 (or any MS's next OS), bypassing the TPM and other requirements.
The numbers for windows 11 show that the OS is becoming quite popular. I think Microsoft should be happy with the number of users win 11 has.
It's not becoming popular. MS just deliberately and forcively removes the ability to like, and use the previous OSes. How that can make it more attractive?
On that note, Steam still (unofficially) supports Win7. So do Epic Games Store and EA app
Unfortunately this is subject to change, and is in the hands of their (platform/storefront) owners, to decide when. Valve was keeping the support for W7, because, games were designed to run on W7, sometimes exclusively on it. And could be brought to the court, for breaching the terms, or removing the sole support for the bought games, by thousands of users. Especially in the class action. But will this remain the case, considering Valves recent "update" of ToS/EULA. They aren't afraid of anyone anymore.