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TSMC Can't Legally Make 2 nm Chips in the US Yet, Latest Nodes Must Remain in Taiwan

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AMD fans just want to see Intel burn to the ground.
Certainly not. Nvidia's GPU dominance is not great for the industry either
 
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AMD fans just want to see Intel burn to the ground.
An open race is great for the consumers,
A Monopole market is not good for anyone - expect the one owning the monopoly.
Here is my journey since 1997
Even if I using my third AMD in row, the previous 4 were intel, and then 4 AMD, and one intel
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Personally I buy what is better at the moment, and I am pretty sure - the most of us just like me.


Certainly not. Nvidia's GPU dominance is not great for the industry either
AMD just capitulated in the GPU department.
 
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AMD just capitulated in the GPU department.
So they will actually focus on GPUs with prices people actually want to pay whilst Nvidia wants to make expensive GPUs the norm, seemingly counting on that people forget that the pre-covid prices were much better. I haven't.
 

Count von Schwalbe

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You mean canceled fabs all over the planet
They have fabs in several US States, Ireland, and Israel. They are working on fabs in Germany, Poland, and Malaysia. They are also expanding their site(s) in Israel, along with some US sites.
 
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Given how they have shown over and over that they cant do anything right (without lying or bribing), I would be apprehensive about giving them more billions just to be squandered away.
They are among three semiconductor manufacturers that can do cutting edge processes. Right behind TSMC and either at the same level or a bit ahead of Samsung. This is all of the competition left.
They have fabs in several US States, Ireland, and Israel. They are working on fabs in Germany, Poland, and Malaysia. They are also expanding their site(s) in Israel, along with some US sites.
I am very surprised that people seem to be forgetting this. Intel has a lot of manufacturing capacity and they are producing a lot of their own stuff in them on a relatively competitive processes. Intel 3 is said to be in mass production stage from summer this year or so, probably making Xeons.
 
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TSMC was effectively established to come up with a way to make the rest of the world so dependent on Taiwan, that they'd be willing to go to war with the PRC to protect the island. Especially given the lack of loyalty of the incoming US government towards allies, it entirely makes sense for them to retain their most important technologies on Taiwan itself to ensure that shield.

An all out war with China pretty much guaranteeing that country's total destruction unless you're the US over one generation of a node which is more marketing than reality.

So...not really a problem?

When we are talking their absolute latest and greatest it's lines with bad yields and processes that need time in the oven. While not having that kinda sucks...I would infinitely prefer a line of one or two generation old technologies that can pump chips out consistently, and that's basically required given how long mil-spec testing takes, than the best of the best that cost an arm and a leg to only be single digit percentages better than the far more mature processes.

I don't want to touch on the politics, but Taiwan having the costliest and least forgiving processes with months of wait to have their lithography machines delivered isn't a terrible thing. Heck, if we get stuck on another node for 3 generations the "best" technology out there will have processors costing a small fortune to have incremental improvements...where a significantly less expensive (and slightly lower performance) will be pennies on the dollar for costing and allow for much better cumulative performance with all of the multiple-CCD and multi-processor configurations on a single package.

What machines does TSM make? You mean ASML machines that get delivered to TSM?

The primary goal of the Chips Act was the make sure the US has a clean and reliable supply of domestically manufactured microchips for its defense establishment.

If Chyna invades Taiwan, those TSMC factories aren't going to be making AMD stuff and NV stuff, they'll be expected to crank out any microchips required for the production of US Weaponry.

The fact that there is a "peace dividend" of domestic commercial chip manufacturing is the cherry on top, it's not the point.

You got military confused with Apple.
 
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  1. GloFo has zero interest in leading-edge nodes, their market position and bread and butter is producing commodity microchips for appliances and vehicles. Low cost, low margin, but high volume is arguably a smarter choice than chasing the bleeding edge, especially when the latter equipment is so expensive and has to be replaced so often.

Yes, of course, TSMC's income statement says exactly what you said... :rolleyes:
You are a genius, you understand a lot... :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
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Yes, of course, TSMC's income statement says exactly what you said... :rolleyes:
You are a genius, you understand a lot... :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
I understand that there's more than one way to get rich, yes. So do the Saudis.
 
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I understand that there's more than one way to get rich, yes. So do the Saudis.

Globalfoundries is the largest manufacturer of chips for US military equipment. Yes, they are "untrustworthy" as you said... :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
 
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1. GloFo is owned by the Saudis and therefore a far less trustworthy partner than TSMC will ever be, so no, that's never gonna be allowed to happen.
I understand that there's more than one way to get rich, yes. So do the Saudis.
Current greater than >1% holders (as of June 30, 2024) of GlobalFoundries:
Mubadala (United Arab Emirates) - 85.09%
Fidelity Investments (United States of America) - 8.74%
Matrix Capital Management (United States of America) - 3.07%

Went by me the first read. It isn't Saudi Arabia but UAE that owns controlling interest with GlobalFoundries. The correct term to use is "Emiratis" rather than "Saudis" for that.
 
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Everyone directs what companies can and cannot do when it runs into national security issues or geopolitics. Everyone always has. Everyone always will. The tables have not turned this is the same stuff that's always gone on.
So you think it's OK when the US dictates who e.g. ASML (The Netherlands) or TSMC (Taiwan) can produce/sell items to?
 
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So you think it's OK when the US dictates who e.g. ASML (The Netherlands) or TSMC (Taiwan) can produce/sell items to?
In case of ASML it did a lot of R&D funded by US government which in turn gives US control over at least licensing of ASML tech. Also, the current restrictions for ASML selling to China are put in place by the Netherlands.

TSMC is simple - US is a critical ally of Taiwan and China is an enemy. Pretty sure it did not need much convincing or wringing hands for US to make Taiwan put restrictions in place.
 
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Yes, exactly, I don't blame them at all given recent changes in America....it would be wise for Taiwan to consider itself "on its own" now
I don't see how that's any different with the prior administration. Looking at it from a perspective of someone outside Taiwan, as soon as the idea of building TSMC factories outside of Taiwan became real, Taiwan's strategic manufacturing importance becomes diminished if not at least more at-risk regardless of what defense agreements might be in place by any administration. This is of course at the expense of ensuring a other nations supply chain of high end chips for military and economic priorities can't be interrupted. There is still a question in my mind - that is if TSMC ceases to exist on paper (for any reason) would TSMC factories still be able to innovate and produce providing the very safety net as politicians have planned? I have doubts it's going to be the safety net people think it's going to be.

Taiwan's primary adversary for all their military bluster prefers to do things differently and while military intervention is not impossible it's more likely they will continue to play the long game and either
1) Taiwan's primary adversary will catchup technologically and supplant Taiwan by flooding the market with cheaper parts (by any means necessary)
or
2) Taiwan's primary adversary will turn Taiwan from within to induce reunification and thusly at that time capture world markets in high end chip production including in offshore production in the vary countries that were concerned enough about disruption to induce offshore production.

That's just my take on it without getting over the top political.
 
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This US dependence on TSMC's Taiwanese factories will only end if the US government give around US$100 billion to GlobalFoundries to it build a gigantic chip factory on US soil, using the most modern machinery from ASML.

Until the US government does not do exactly that, the "CHIPS and Science Act" will be of little use and the US will continue to be riskily dependent on TSMC's factories in Taiwan.

And of course, this giant GlobalFoundries factory on US soil would also have to encompass not only the lithography process, but also all the subsequent steps necessary until the chips are ready for use by OEMs and domestic customers.

And a gigantic factory like this on American soil would generate millions of direct and indirect jobs, in addition to being able to provide and receive support to/from US research centers.

I only showed the central idea in my previous post. The US government has to have a giant chip factory built on American soil with cutting-edge machinery as soon as it starts operating, since cutting-edge machinery, in about 2 years, will no longer be cutting-edge and can be used to manufacture cheaper chips that do not require such advanced lithography.

And this factory, in addition to having all the necessary steps before and after the lithography process on American soil, has to be independent: it cannot manufacture chips for itself, like Intel. Many other companies do not want to hire Intel as a chip manufacturer because Intel would manufacture and have access to the chip designs of its direct competitors well in advance, even if they are protected by patents. If, for example, Nvidia were to hire Intel to manufacture GPUs for it, Nvidia would show many of its industrial secrets to Intel, which is its competitor. And the same would happen to many other companies, since Intel manufactures several types of chips and, therefore, is a competitor of many other companies.

The entire US government (executive, legislative and judicial branches of the US) would have to come together and take drastic measures to build this mega chip factory on American soil. They could, for example, contact Bill Gates and other major investors so that they would buy GlobalFoundries and transform it into a 100% American company. And then, the US government would have to hand over around US$100 billion so that this giant factory could be built in the US.

Until the US government finds a way to have this giant chip factory built on US soil, the US will suffer drastically if country X invades, occupies and takes over the factories of country Y.

That's the main idea. Everyone can draw their own conclusions.
 
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Personally I buy what is better at the moment, and I am pretty sure - the most of us just like me.
I try to stick to whatever makes the most sense and then allow myself to get romanced a little bit into bleeding edge.
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The US should leverage its close partnership with Japan and give them EUV licensing. That would also force ASML to bring their machine costs down, and also allow Japan to fully catch up and serve as a backup supplier of high-end chips (and Korea is sort of there), and given the existing legacy defense agreements, the US is obligated to come to Japan's aid should war break out than Taiwan or S.Korea. It would also be perfectly fine to have Japan open up shop in the states again too, with the US mandating Japan first produce high-end equipment and fabs in the US using EUV tech before they can upgrade their fabs and fab production equipment at home.

China is slowly but surely catching up themselves thanks to reverse-engineering old ASML fab equipment they snuck over, so the US may as well try to stay ahead by bringing in more allies and leveraging their near-stranglehold on EUV licensing to provide additional supplier sources for both high-end fabs and high-end fab equipment, as any war, involving trade or weapons, would send the fragile semiconductor market skyrocketing.
 
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They are among three semiconductor manufacturers that can do cutting edge processes. Right behind TSMC and either at the same level or a bit ahead of Samsung. This is all of the competition left.
I am very surprised that people seem to be forgetting this. Intel has a lot of manufacturing capacity and they are producing a lot of their own stuff in them on a relatively competitive processes. Intel 3 is said to be in mass production stage from summer this year or so, probably making Xeons.
Samsung, or Global Foundries?
 
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Samsung, or Global Foundries?
What do you mean?
Samsung is at the cutting edge and does have 3nm and 2nm processes that at least exist even if they have the reported/rumored yield problems.
Globalfoundries is several generations behind and they do not seem to be capable of catching up. Or even trying to.
 
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What do you mean?
Samsung is at the cutting edge and does have 3nm and 2nm processes that at least exist even if they have the reported/rumored yield problems.
Globalfoundries is several generations behind and they do not seem to be capable of catching up. Or even trying to.
I understand, but they're still the third biggest fab.
 
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