Qualcomm CEO Claims Positive Growth For Snapdragon X Elite-Powered Laptops

[GGforever]

Ever since Apple graced the industry with its M-series chips, Windows enthusiasts have been holding out for a similar Arm-powered revolution for Windows laptops. Qualcomm attempted to do just that with its Snapdragon X Elite chip, advertising performance and efficiency that trades blows with Apple Silicon, while outpacing x86-based laptops in battery life. In reality, the X Elite SoC did bring impressive efficiency to the table, although its CPU performance and efficiency were soon bested by AMD's offerings, while the Adreno iGPU struggled to keep up with even last-gen counterparts since day-one.

Moreover, software compatibility was a major hurdle, making the X Elite systems borderline unusable for professionals with specific requirements that do not have Arm-native alternatives. As a result, the X Elite laptops had a sub 1% market share last fall - a daunting figure considering that Qualcomm had initially targeted 30 - 50% market share by 2029. That said, the story appears to be taking somewhat of a positive turn, with CEO Christiano Amon asserting that Snapdragon X-powered laptops accounted for over 10% of all $800+ laptops sold in December, in the US. Of course, the statement clearly addresses a very specific segment of the market, which makes the 10%+ number more modest that it may appear on paper.




With the newly unveiled entry-level Snapdragon X processor now targeting the $600 laptop segment as well, an increase in demand may be foreseen, which will incentivize app developers to take Windows on Arm more seriously, thereby leading to a positive-feedback loop of consumer demand driving compatibility progress. That said, both Intel and AMD are by no means sitting on the sidelines, making the arena even more challenging for Qualcomm to break into. Things may take yet another positive turn for the company in the coming quarters, but that, of course, remains to be seen.

View at TechPowerUp Main Site | Source

 

[Daven]

My market share prediction by 2030 for laptops:

Apple 15%
AMD 25%
Intel 25%
Qualcomm 15%
Nvidia 10%
Other (Mediatek, Huawei, RISC-V, etc) 10%

OSes might include Windows, MacOS, ChromeOS (or Android), SteamOS, other Linux distros

 

[Denver]

I think some people might celebrate losing money.

 

[AGlezB]

I expect ARM will completely dominate the laptop market by 2035.
My prediction is ARM will continue to push out x86, first in the mobile space and later, once drivers and applications have matured, out of the desktop space as well.

 

[Daven]

I expect ARM will completely dominate the laptop market by 2035.
My prediction is ARM will continue to push out x86, first in the mobile space and later, once drivers and applications have matured, out of the desktop space as well.

At least 50% by then. I think AMD might still be successful with high power SoCs like Strix Halo and keep a good chuck of the market. It might take ARM providers like Qualcomm more time to have good high end GPU solutions.

 

[AGlezB]

At least 50% by then. I think AMD might still be successful with high power SoCs like Strix Halo and keep a good chuck of the market. It might take ARM providers like Qualcomm more time to have good high end GPU solutions.

We'll see.

I expect migration will accelerate as PCIe and driver support increases because a lot of us are awaiting the moment it becomes easy to add a modern dGPU to an ARM system and by easy I mean in the same way it is with x86 today. I think that'll happen within then a decade because the piece of the pie is just to big and juicy for companies to ignore and when it does ARM will roll over x86.

I've said it before: x86 is already dead. It'll continue to kick and scream for a few decades in the same way some places still use mainframes from the 70s but that's it.
The last time I said it I ruffled quite a few feathers so feel free to come at me with your arguments

 

[john_]

Based on the results of one research company(big one, but just one), based on the results of one month, based on sales in one country, excluding the vast majority of laptops that are under $800. Was December the month that retailers where trying to push Snapdragon laptops with big discounts? If yes, .... how nice.

 

[Denver]

We'll see.

I expect migration will accelerate as PCIe and driver support increases because a lot of us are awaiting the moment it becomes easy to add a modern dGPU to an ARM system and by easy I mean in the same way it is with x86 today. I think that'll happen within then a decade because the piece of the pie is just to big and juicy for companies to ignore and when it does ARM will roll over x86.

I've said it before: x86 is already dead. It'll continue to kick and scream for a few decades in the same way some places still use mainframes from the 70s but that's it.
The last time I said it I ruffled quite a few feathers so feel free to come at me with your arguments

It's good to know that x86 will survive longer than humanity itself.

People are deluding themselves into thinking ARM will easily take over the PC market. This is a billion-dollar game, and Qualcomm made a misstep. Will it take another generation or two before they finally give up?

 

[wNotyarD]

I've got a question for those on these forums who have a SD X laptop: how is the current state of affairs of using and running your devices (PRISM compatibility and updates)?

 

[SRB151]

The problem with all of this is that this is a hollow argument amongst hardware nerds. When push comes to shove, most people, including the business class, could care less what hardware they're running on. While the forum here fights over whether or not ARM or x86 is better, customers only care if it is priced right and runs what I want it to. ARM suffers from the chicken or the egg problem every discontinued phone OS suffered from. Until native apps are written, no one will want to use it. AND, no one will write native apps until a critical mass of devices are sold. Unfortunately for ARM, while you might complain it's far superior, there is absolutely nothing wrong with x86 as far as the buying public is concerned.
Therefore, NO compelling reason to switch and buy ARM, even if it ran everything right, which is doesn't

 

[AGlezB]

People are deluding themselves into thinking ARM will easily take over the PC market.

Easily, no. The way I see it there are 2 competing market forces:

1. x86: Stablished desktop/laptop dominance.
2. ARM: Power-efficient and cheap.

Right now ARM cannot not compete simply because a lot existing software and hardware cannot not be used with it. That'll solve itself as more ARM devices hit the market, which will happen simply because ARM is cheaper both to licence and to manufacture and Microsoft made it easier in general by releasing Windows for ARM.

The remaining issue is getting people to switch. Most people will have no issues whatsoever as long as the software they use works fine and that include the whole of the Education sector where cost is a major concern. From there on is just a matter of time.

The key to all of this is the price. If ARM devices cost less and sell at at reasonable price they'll take over without too much trouble. The lower the price compared to x86 in the same relative performace tier the faster ARM will take over.

TL;DR "cheap" is power. Just look at how many companies are manufacturing x86 vs ARM.

 

[TheinsanegamerN]

We'll see.

I expect migration will accelerate as PCIe and driver support increases because a lot of us are awaiting the moment it becomes easy to add a modern dGPU to an ARM system and by easy I mean in the same way it is with x86 today. I think that'll happen within then a decade because the piece of the pie is just to big and juicy for companies to ignore and when it does ARM will roll over x86.

I've said it before: x86 is already dead. It'll continue to kick and scream for a few decades in the same way some places still use mainframes from the 70s but that's it.
The last time I said it I ruffled quite a few feathers so feel free to come at me with your arguments

I think people were just pointing out that claiming x86 is dead because of a singular product is both ridiculous and wrong. Remind me how many companies are making software for mainframes these days?

Meanwhile, x86 is still the target for modern software development.

Easily, no. The way I see it there are 2 competing market forces:

1. x86: Stablished desktop/laptop dominance.
2. ARM: Power-efficient and cheap.

Right now ARM cannot not compete simply because a lot existing software and hardware cannot not be used with it. That'll solve itself as more ARM devices hit the market, which will happen simply because ARM is cheaper both to licence and to manufacture and Microsoft made it easier in general by releasing Windows for ARM.

The remaining issue is getting people to switch. Most people will have no issues whatsoever as long as the software they use works fine and that include the whole of the Education sector where cost is a major concern. From there on is just a matter of time.

The key to all of this is the price. If ARM devices cost less and sell at at reasonable price they'll take over without too much trouble. The lower the price compared to x86 in the same relative performace tier the faster ARM will take over.

TL;DR "cheap" is power. Just look at how many companies are manufacturing x86 vs ARM.

You say cheap, yet all the "windows ARM" laptops out there are monstrously expensive compared to their x86 counterparts, and anything not optimized specifically for ARM runs like total dogshit.

There's also the subject of more powerful ARM devices, where you cant just throw 100 cores at something. When it comes to scaling up the cores ARM has repeatedly run into roadblocks. That will be a sticking point in the desktop space for some time to come.

 

[bitsandboots]

My market share prediction by 2030 for laptops:

Apple 15%
AMD 25%
Intel 25%
Qualcomm 15%
Nvidia 10%
Other (Mediatek, Huawei, RISC-V, etc) 10%

OSes might include Windows, MacOS, ChromeOS (or Android), SteamOS, other Linux distros

Global or US?
Globally apple is about 8% now, but 16% in US.

So this equates to in 5 years:

Apple doubling or flat
AMD flat
Intel shrinks at expense of Qualcomm, a large company who can't get out of the way of Microsoft's platform issues, Nvidia a company who doesn't have any consumer platform currently, 2 companies who are so far away from the PC market that they can barely manage to run Linux due to not upstreaming kernel support, and finally RISC-V.

I dunno about that. Perhaps intel shrinks, amd grows, and qualcomm starts to become seen in the wild. I expect seeing RISC-V out in public in 2030 to be as common as seeing someone running with a librem or pinephone.

Easily, no. The way I see it there are 2 competing market forces:

1. x86: Stablished desktop/laptop dominance.
2. ARM: Power-efficient and cheap.

Right now ARM cannot not compete simply because a lot existing software and hardware cannot not be used with it. That'll solve itself as more ARM devices hit the market, which will happen simply because ARM is cheaper both to licence and to manufacture and Microsoft made it easier in general by releasing Windows for ARM.

The remaining issue is getting people to switch. Most people will have no issues whatsoever as long as the software they use works fine and that include the whole of the Education sector where cost is a major concern. From there on is just a matter of time.

The key to all of this is the price. If ARM devices cost less and sell at at reasonable price they'll take over without too much trouble. The lower the price compared to x86 in the same relative performace tier the faster ARM will take over.

TL;DR "cheap" is power. Just look at how many companies are manufacturing x86 vs ARM.

I think it's even harder than price. It's also about having a supply and support chain.
ARM doesn't sell direct, so you get ARM by Lenovo or someone else selling a whole computer.
Apple can make an ARM laptop because they own the whole chain.

Dell, Lenovo, etc... they use a CPU made by someone else, and combine it with a motherboard platform including firmware and drivers written by someone else.
An ARM chip can be for sale and Dell & Lenovo may still not use it.
Consider that AMD chips were and have been better than Intel chips for a while and it's still taking time for these companies to make the AMD models good, available, common.
Additionally businesses. They use some of the most entrenched & incompatible software out there. They're gonna be stuck on whatever platform their software allows, and that software will be updated uh... who knows when.

 

[AGlezB]

I think people were just pointing out that claiming x86 is dead because of a singular product is both ridiculous and wrong. Remind me how many companies are making software for mainframes these days?

Meanwhile, x86 is still the target for modern software development.


You say cheap, yet all the "windows ARM" laptops out there are monstrously expensive compared to their x86 counterparts, and anything not optimized specifically for ARM runs like total dogshit.

There's also the subject of more powerful ARM devices, where you cant just throw 100 cores at something. When it comes to scaling up the cores ARM has repeatedly run into roadblocks. That will be a sticking point in the desktop space for some time to come.

The issues you're seeing with ARM are "now" issues and it's also true my estimate might be a bit optimist so let me say this for the sake of comparison with my prior statement about x86: mainframes are dead.

Being dead doesn't mean they've ceased to exist. It just means they became irrelevant and they did so because they lost the cost war.
When I say x86 is dead I don't mean it will dissapear completely. It'll just loose relevance to ARM until they're as irrelevant as mainframes are today.

 

[Daven]

Global or US?
Globally apple is about 8% now, but 16% in US.

Globally Apple is at 15%.

 

[bitsandboots]

Globally Apple is at 15%.

Yes, the number will vary depending if we're talking about yearly sales or ongoing use. wikipedia says less for yearly sales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_share_of_personal_computer_vendors?useskin=vector