TSMC Arizona Operations Only 10% More Expensive Than Taiwanese Fab Operations

[Bobaganoosh]

WW3? No. China is not that foolish. Forceful Naval blockade? Yes. Trump is and would be that bold and China knows this. China will not pick that kind of fight while Trump is in office. For all the faults of the Chinese gov, they know when to pick their battle. They will not pick this one. Not anytime soon anyway.


What they say is of no relevance. What they can and will do is at hand. Crazy though they may be, they are not fools. They will not pick a fight they know they can't win. It's as simple as that.

All they have to do is invest in Trump's properties and he'll let them do whatever they want. Why do you think he's so pro-Putin? When no US investors would give him money anymore, Russia was there for him and his family. That's why he's always been Russia's ally and there are smart enough people in China to see that.

 

[Wirko]

WW3? No. China is not that foolish. Forceful Naval blockade? Yes.

On the other hand, there's a possibility of Chinese naval blockade, or a large-scale disruption of trade routes, in stead of invasion. This would also keep TSMC intact. And American attempts to smuggle some wafers out would be silently tolerated, ha.

 

[lexluthermiester]

All they have to do is invest in Trump's properties and he'll let them do whatever they want.

Oh please. Keep that kind of silly talk out of this discussion.

On the other hand, there's a possibility of Chinese naval blockade

Um, are you kidding? China's Naval forces do not compare to Taiwan, the US and Japan. Little known fact, Japan and Taiwan, though competitors, value and honor each other. Japan will be as much an alliy of Taiwan as the US, if not more-so. China can not win a Naval conflict concerning Taiwan.

The only military asset China has working in it's favor is it's airforce. But while they are the largest airforce in the world, they are not as advanced compared to Taiwan, Japan and the US. That is the only arena where their military stands a chance. And to be fair, they have some might in that arena. But would such a show of force be wise or even effective? My guess is no.

 

[MentalAcetylide]

You could just read what China's been saying.

Xi's buildup of the PLA \ PLAN (military) has a milestone year: 2027

View attachment 391599
China's navy (the PLAN) is already about the same size as the US', and should be significantly larger by 2030 (like 1/3 larger). What's more their navy is regional, our is spread throughout the world.

This is also why both control of the Panama Canal and the Red Sea (Houthi's) is an issue. The Red Sea is the way to transit the Mediterranean to the Pacific via the Suez Canal, while the Panama Canal serves the same purpose for fleets in the Atlantic.

If you choke these two corridors off, the US can't move its naval assets freely. This would give China a huge boost of having perhaps 3x or 4x as many ships in the region than the US and no way for the US to get reinforcements.

All these things are, conveniently, coming together for Xi's 2027 goal.

Also, I think you over-estimate what the west will do, or what it can do.

China-Taiwan 2027 Deadline: How China could crush Taiwan without firing a shot

Chinas military modernisation is accelerating, with President Xi Jinpings anti-corruption purge reshaping the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) as it readies for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027. A recent U.S. intelligence report highlights systemic corruption within the Chinese Communist...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

They also seem to forget that China is a nuclear power. They might not have thousands of nukes like Russia or the US, but it probably only takes around 100 or less to render the continental US uninhabitable if we're talking cobalt salted nuclear weapons in the 100-kiloton range. On top of that the only purpose China has for nuclear weapons is to dissuade enemies from using it against them first and as a deterrence should their homeland ever be threatened. They have so many people, the US & its allies would find themselves at best fighting China to a costly stalemate in a conventional war with China gaining control of a desolated Taiwan. The only reasons China hasn't moved on Taiwan already is because they haven't built up their armed forces personnel numbers to sufficient levels + the hardware/equipment to go with it, and the economic costs(both short term & long term). I would say its mostly the latter reason.
China has a population pool of men around 20+ times larger than most other countries(with the exception of India) when it comes to military drafts, so they don't need to have superior tech. All they need is enough bodies, military equipment/vehicles, and competent leaders.

As it currently stands, the US is not in any shape to fight a conventional war with a near-peer adversary like China. Our conventional arsenals are nowhere near what they were during the Cold War. Sure, we have superior equipment & tech, but not in sufficient numbers for such a conflict and I highly doubt in this current age of technology, speed, cyber-attacks, etc., that such adversaries are going to give us the time to ramp up manufacturing like they did in WW-II. Both China & the US would suffer greatly from such a conflict along with Taiwan being turned into an island of rubble. The mainland US is no longer a near-impossible target like it once was from direct attacks by enemies during a war.

 

[lexluthermiester]

They also seem to forget that China is a nuclear power.

No one is forgetting that for even a moment. China is NOT stupid enough to use nukes willy-nilly. They will not use them unless they have no other choice.

As it currently stands, the US is not in any shape to fight a conventional war with a near-peer adversary like China.

You are misinformed. That's all I'm going to say on that.

 

[MentalAcetylide]

Oh please. Keep that kind of silly talk out of this discussion.


Um, are you kidding? China's Naval forces do not compare to Taiwan, the US and Japan. Little known fact, Japan and Taiwan, though competitors, value and honor each other. Japan will be as much an alliy of Taiwan as the US, if not more-so. China can not win a Naval conflict concerning Taiwan.

The only military asset China has working in it's favor is it's airforce. But while they are the largest airforce in the world, they are not as advanced compared to Taiwan, Japan and the US. That is the only arena where their military stands a chance. And to be fair, they have some might in that arena. But would such a show of force be wise or even effective? My guess is no.

Oh, no doubt if China tries to start a war over Taiwan, its going to be a wholesale slaughter, but when they have a population that they do, its more about the economics than anything else & our ability to keep up with the military ordinance & replacing lost ships & such. China's main strategy at this point is to just oversaturate targets with missiles & ordinance to the point that counter-measures are rendered useless. We won't be able to replace our naval losses fast enough like the good old days.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Oh, no doubt if China tries to start a war over Taiwan, its going to be a wholesale slaughter

On this we agree, but not in China's favor.

our ability to keep up with the military ordinance & replacing lost ships & such.

The US naval and air war machine is a sleeping giant only fools would awaken. We have proven this time and again.

Regardless and back on topic, TSMC's presence in Taiwan will continue to be strong. They have wisely branched out to cover all of their bases.

 

[mechtech]

Sorry what? The people that work at TSMC are some of the best paid in Taiwan. Yes, they work long shifts, but they also get paid for it. I can't speak for xina, but in Taiwan they make a lot more than even CEOs in other companies on the island. There's a reason why people want to work for them. Yes, it doesn't compare to some stupid salaries in the US, but you're not going to earn even close as much as you can earn at TSMC in other companies in Taiwan.
This is from 2022.

Annual salary for Taiwan’s TSMC workers exceeds NT$3 million in 2022 | Taiwan News | Mar. 3, 2023 11:20

Revenue driven by sales of HPC devices and chips used in automotive electronics | Mar. 3, 2023 11:20

taiwannews.com.tw

"TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Employees of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) were paid NT$3.175 million (US$103,711) in annual salaries on average last year, up 28.91% from the previous year."

That's pretty great wage for Asia for sure. Even in North America that would be really good.............for a 2080hr no OT work year.

I guess the question I have is............that 10% is that with or without inclusion of the tariffs?

edit - I was not aware of this...........interesting

Taiwan’s TSMC fixes Nvidia Blackwell design flaw | Taiwan News | Oct. 24, 2024 12:41

CEO Jensen Huang dismisses rumors Nvidia on bad terms with TSMC | Oct. 24, 2024 12:41

taiwannews.com.tw

 

[MentalAcetylide]

No one is forgetting that for even a moment. China is NOT stupid enough to use nukes willy-nilly. They will not use them unless they have no other choice.

You are misinformed. That's all I'm going to say on that.

We can't win a conventional war with China. We've shuttered well over 300 military bases and over two-thirds of our military ordnance-producing facilities. It would be a stalemate assuming it doesn't go nuclear. When you have the manpower that they do, it just isn't feasible. The technological superiority doesn't change the end result if you can't keep up the production necessary in order to fight such an adversary. We do not have the time frame that we had in WW-II to transform the country into a military production machine. Nevermind all the ass grabbery that was absent in our country during those times. I agree that the Chinese military would suffer an insane K/D ratio, but they can easily take those losses and still have the numbers to fight.

On this we agree, but not in China's favor.

The US naval and air war machine is a sleeping giant only fools would awaken. We have proven this time and again.

Regardless and back on topic, TSMC's presence in Taiwan will continue to be strong. They have wisely branched out to cover all of their bases.

On this we agree, but not in China's favor.

The US naval and air war machine is a sleeping giant only fools would awaken. We have proven this time and again.

Regardless and back on topic, TSMC's presence in Taiwan will continue to be strong. They have wisely branched out to cover all of their bases.

I wouldn't worry about it at this time. Both the US & China would be hurt more from such a conflict than they would have to gain. I think Taiwan is just going to be putting up with more propaganda & sabre rattling.

Imo, I think countries should have stuff they need produced within their own borders. Otherwise you just end up with another DeBeers pilfering those countries through assymetric or one-sided trading.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Both the US & China would be hurt more from such a conflict than they would have to gain. I think Taiwan is just going to be putting up with more propaganda & sabre rattling.

On these points we agree.

edit - I was not aware of this...........interesting

Taiwan’s TSMC fixes Nvidia Blackwell design flaw | Taiwan News | Oct. 24, 2024 12:41

CEO Jensen Huang dismisses rumors Nvidia on bad terms with TSMC | Oct. 24, 2024 12:41

taiwannews.com.tw

Hmm. That IS interesting! So this ROPs issue was also a TSMC thing, not exclusively an NVidia thing. Weird.

 

[tpa-pr]

I'm no geopolitics expert so I could be way off base here. But one of my biggest concerns with TSMC setting up fabs in other countries is that China might view it as the deterrent to invasion being removed. At the moment if China moved in on Taiwan they could legitimately crash the world economy since TSMC produces the highest quantity of the most advanced chips available, they're necessary to everyone including China. But if they have footholds in other countries, isn't it possible that China could go "there's nothing to lose now" and make their move?

One of my more politically-minded friends has said to me repeatedly "international trade is what prevents war. You have something they want, they have something you want, trade means you don't have to fight each other for it". With Taiwan potentially giving up their proverbial trump card it strikes me that they could be putting themselves in danger.

(Note that I am all for TSMC diversifying their install base purely from a redundancy perspective. I just don't want Taiwan to get invaded!)

 

[MentalAcetylide]

I'm no geopolitics expert so I could be way off base here. But one of my biggest concerns with TSMC setting up fabs in other countries is that China might view it as the deterrent to invasion being removed. At the moment if China moved in on Taiwan they could legitimately crash the world economy since TSMC produces the highest quantity of the most advanced chips available, they're necessary to everyone including China. But if they have footholds in other countries, isn't it possible that China could go "there's nothing to lose now" and make their move?

One of my more politically-minded friends has said to me repeatedly "international trade is what prevents war. You have something they want, they have something you want, trade means you don't have to fight each other for it". With Taiwan potentially giving up their proverbial trump card it strikes me that they could be putting themselves in danger.

(Note that I am all for TSMC diversifying their install base purely from a redundancy perspective. I just don't want Taiwan to get invaded!)

They have nothing to gain from it beyond pissing off a major majority of the world & being able to claim a ruinous heap of an island full of burnt/dead bodies as belonging to them. Then Japan & probably a few other nations in that region start a huge military build-up.

Trade can either discourage wars, or it can cause nations to "kick the can down the road" & make them bigger & worse in the long run. Its not necessarily a solution. Sooner or later trade & economics take a back seat depending on what's to be gained/lost from war vs. what's to be gained/lost from not going to war.

 

[RandallFlagg]

The US naval and air war machine is a sleeping giant only fools would awaken. We have proven this time and again.

I get it. Unfortunately, this old cliche ignores multiple historical facts.

The US' ability to build ships in WW II was directly attached to its prowess in building up merchant ships.

This was a direct result of a program the US Gov't started in 1937 to upscale its maritime shipbuilding capacity.
Ref: https://www.maritime.dot.gov/sites/...T for DOMESTIC SHIPBUILDING (JULY 2024)_0.pdf

Ultimately these buildups resulted in the US flagged fleet of over 4400 ships, with the military having over 1100 including 99 aircraft carriers at the end of WWII.

Today, things are very different though. We were ready for WW II. China is ready for WW III. We are not.

Yes, that's right. China puts out 510X more tonnage in maritime ships than the US does.

If they shift this to a wartime footing, we'll be the Japanese with the superior tech and training - China will be the sleeping giant.

 

[lexluthermiester]

I get it. Unfortunately, this old cliche ignores multiple historical facts.

The US' ability to build ships in WW II was directly attached to its prowess in building up merchant ships.

This was a direct result of a program the US Gov't started in 1937 to upscale its maritime shipbuilding capacity.
Ref: https://www.maritime.dot.gov/sites/marad.dot.gov/files/2024-07/FACT SHEET for DOMESTIC SHIPBUILDING (JULY 2024)_0.pdf

Ultimately these buildups resulted in the US flagged fleet of over 4400 ships, with the military having over 1100 including 99 aircraft carriers at the end of WWII.

Today, things are very different though. We were ready for WW II. China is ready for WW III. We are not.


View attachment 391629

Yes, that's right. China puts out 510X more tonnage in maritime ships than the US does.

If they shift this to a wartime footing, we'll be the Japanese with the superior tech and training - China will be the sleeping giant.

Those are NOT Naval war ships. Those are merchant marine ships. Not at all the same thing.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Those are NOT Naval war ships. Those are merchant marine ships. Not at all the same thing.

Reading comprehension failure.

Any extended war of attrition, we lose. Just like WW II. Japan had a shot, they had to hit hard and eviscerate our navy and more importantly - our capacity to build more ships.

They failed, and lost the war.

The roles are reversed now. The US will lose any extended conflict with China.

Also, for the record, China is laying down far more new military ships than the US is and has been for years. So not only are they making more military ships, and have more, they have a lot of commercial capacity to shove into making even more - just like the US did in 1941.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Reading comprehension failure.

No, that's me not clicking on your pdf and instead reading the posted screen shot.

Regardless, your not taking all things into account. We could debate this back and forth for days, neither one of us definitively winning the debate.

We're off-topic enough anyway. I digress.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

No, that's me not clicking on your pdf and instead reading the posted screen shot.

Regardless, your not taking all things into account. We could debate this back and forth for days, neither one of us definitively winning the debate.

We're off-topic enough anyway. I digress.

- The US has a military that is geared toward beating up smaller 3rd world countries and relatively brief but intense exchanges with peers/near peers. It is not in any condition for a protracted war with a huge country with massive reserves.

One of the leading arguments for limiting US support for Ukraine is that the conflict has depleated our stockpiles and we are not producing at a replacement rate, and that conflict is a much smaller scale than a war with China.

The nature of war has also changed. Small, mass produced drones pose a huge threat to a conventional military such as ours, and our carrier battle groups haven't really been tested against an enemy with plenty of proper cruise missiles.

A war with China isn't some kind of slam dunk for the US like Iraq. There are definitely odds that we would lose, China would take Taiwan, and the world would become a substantially worse place, complicated further by the current political climate of alienating all of our allies and installing buffoons in high ranking positions.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Like I just said above;

We're off-topic enough anyway. I digress.

Thus.

 

[DaemonForce]

But tariffs aren't the same globally

Doesn't matter. The majority of interested customers are right here in America.
First to shelf, first to sale. That's the message.

it's probably only a matter of time until they make their move. Also US shielding taiwan is in great part due to the world dependance to TSMC

Super Japan 2.0 That's all I have to say about this.
I'm starting to miss the daily talks from my one VR insider talking about the great ape (China) beating its war drums about TW whenever ANY mention...Those were fun times.

 

[Shihab]

Doesn't matter. The majority of interested customers are right here in America.

Was thinking more of those making the equipment used in the manufacturing process. For example, that Dutch company that makes those cool lights and lenses that draw those tiny lines and holes...

 

[DaemonForce]

That's a really good idea. Lets get those guys in here too.

 

[Vayra86]

Also, new nodes have always been introduced in Taiwan first, and as is seems now, this isn't about to change.

Taiwan knows full well they have an all-in strategy for their home security that integrates their semicon industry. That won't change, if they move their strategy towards a US base, they'll have directly signed their death warrant and the PRC is gonna move in, because the US has no real interest in its defense.

That's a really good idea. Lets get those guys in here too.

Not so sure the current administration is a good partner in anything lol. Trust issues everywhere. They can't even keep their mouths shut on Signal Complete incompetence, we're just waiting for the next major fuck up.

 

[Rightness_1]

I love celebrating baseless price increases.

 

[billEST]

On the other hand, there's a possibility of Chinese naval blockade, or a large-scale disruption of trade routes, in stead of invasion. This would also keep TSMC intact. And American attempts to smuggle some wafers out would be silently tolerated, ha.

and ? you put your chip in center of a plate

a GPU can have 1000 component , 1 left the gpu dont work :90% from sand to pcb come from china

Those are NOT Naval war ships. Those are merchant marine ships. Not at all the same thing.

china make every year now more army ship than the entire french battleship ...

 

[TheLostSwede]

I'm no geopolitics expert so I could be way off base here. But one of my biggest concerns with TSMC setting up fabs in other countries is that China might view it as the deterrent to invasion being removed. At the moment if China moved in on Taiwan they could legitimately crash the world economy since TSMC produces the highest quantity of the most advanced chips available, they're necessary to everyone including China. But if they have footholds in other countries, isn't it possible that China could go "there's nothing to lose now" and make their move?

One of my more politically-minded friends has said to me repeatedly "international trade is what prevents war. You have something they want, they have something you want, trade means you don't have to fight each other for it". With Taiwan potentially giving up their proverbial trump card it strikes me that they could be putting themselves in danger.

(Note that I am all for TSMC diversifying their install base purely from a redundancy perspective. I just don't want Taiwan to get invaded!)

The first country outside of Taiwan that TSMC built fabs in, was xina...
You also have to understand that xina wants TSMC if they were to invade, so their goal would be to prevent any kind of damage to TSMC and its fabs.

So far, a much bigger threats to TSMC are the regular earth quakes, typhoons and the increasingly common droughts in Taiwan, as TSMC needs a lot of water to operate, even though they've gotten better at recycling it.

They have nothing to gain from it beyond pissing off a major majority of the world & being able to claim a ruinous heap of an island full of burnt/dead bodies as belonging to them. Then Japan & probably a few other nations in that region start a huge military build-up.

Trade can either discourage wars, or it can cause nations to "kick the can down the road" & make them bigger & worse in the long run. Its not necessarily a solution. Sooner or later trade & economics take a back seat depending on what's to be gained/lost from war vs. what's to be gained/lost from not going to war.

The issues is that the glorious leader has said that Taiwan will be ruled by xina and that xina will take the islands by force if they must. He can't go back on his word, as that would make him look weak, which could cause him to lose power...