NAND Flash Prices Begin to Recover in 2Q25 as Production Cuts and Inventory Rebuilding Take Effect

[TheLostSwede]

TrendForce reports that NAND Flash suppliers began reducing production in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the effects are now starting to show. In anticipation of potential U.S. tariff increases, consumer electronics brands have accelerated production, further driving up demand. Concurrently, inventory restocking is underway across the PC, smartphone, and data center sectors. As a result, NAND Flash prices are expected to stabilize in the second quarter of 2025, with prices for wafers and client SSDs projected to rise.

Client SSD prices to rise 3-8% while enterprise SSD prices to remain flat
After three consecutive quarters of inventory depletion, client SSD demand is rebounding as OEMs resume production early. The upcoming end of Windows 10 support and the launch of new-generation CPUs are expected to drive replacement demand for PCs. Meanwhile, the DeepSeek effect is accelerating the adoption of edge AI, further fueling client SSD demand. With production cuts and supply adjustments gradually restoring balance, client SSD contract prices are projected to rise 3% to 8% QoQ in Q2.




Technologies like DeepSeek have significantly lowered AI model training costs, spurring strong demand for high-performance storage solutions in China. In North America, however, demand is more polarized: server brand orders have been weaker than expected, while CSPs are increasing procurement as NVIDIA's Blackwell platform begins shipping. Consequently, enterprise SSD orders are expected to see slight QoQ growth in Q2.

On the supply side, some vendors slashed PCIe 4.0 SSD prices by over 20% in Q1 to clear inventory. Suppliers have adjusted capacity to stabilize prices, and some server clients have pulled in orders earlier than planned. As such, enterprise SSD contract prices are expected to hold steady in Q2.

eMMC and UFS prices hold steady as NAND Flash wafer prices to rise 10-15%

TrendForce notes that shipments of smart TVs, tablets, and Chromebooks are expected to rise in Q2. Coupled with a stable demand for mid-to-low-end smartphones in emerging markets and subsidy policies in China, eMMC orders are seeing an uptick.

On the supply side, previous oversupply and price declines drove NAND Flash makers into losses, prompting production cuts to rebalance the market. To return to profitability, suppliers have raised wafer prices for module makers, who in turn are less able to compete with low prices, easing pricing pressure on the original suppliers. As a result, eMMC contract prices are projected to remain flat in Q2.

UFS demand remains stable, supported by high-end smartphones and increasing storage requirements in automotive applications. On the supply side, overall NAND Flash capacity adjustments have reduced UFS availability, and Q2 contract prices are expected to remain unchanged from the previous quarter.

In the NAND Flash wafer market, prices have hit bottom and inventory restocking is underway. Both module makers and OEMs are increasing procurement, while the rebound in enterprise SSD demand is driving interest in high-end wafer products. With reduced wafer supply from production cuts and new pricing strategies for high-layer NAND Flash in response to recovering demand, Q2 NAND Flash wafer contract prices are expected to rise by 10% to 15%.

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[Bwaze]

 

[bonehead123]

Well, if the above moves/adjustments don't get prices to rise like they want, they could always resort to the obligatory "factory fire/flood/power failure" thingy like in the past

So glad I bought a buttload of nvme's back in Dec when the prices bottomed out !

 

[Prima.Vera]

So getting more expensive means "to recover" ??
This sound like a phrase made up by an corrupted greedy oligarch.

 

[L0stS0ul]

View attachment 391686

I would like to see consumer SSDs in 4 and 8 TB sizes, which for 1 TB get cheaper as the size of the drive increases. And the price of 1 TB itself has been pretty stable for a while. Western Digital Black SN850X was £78 a year ago, now £76. Kingston KC3000 2 TB was £122, now £118. And anything over 2 TB is very expensive.

 

[Bwaze]

Two years ago I watched 4 TB drives reach 160 EUR, and I said to myself I'll wait for 8 TB drives, anyday now - I'm waiting for them since 2020... And they're still extremely expensive - not just because of the capacity, for most the price per TB is twice the cost of lower capacity models.

And after price increases two years ago we'll get another price increase, a lot of new models now only come in max 2 TB sizes etc... What happened to the announced larger capacity consumer drives, and lower cost per TB many makers advertised? It's ridiculous.

 

[TheLostSwede]

And after price increases two years ago we'll get another price increase, a lot of new models now only come in max 2 TB sizes etc... What happened to the announced larger capacity consumer drives, and lower cost per TB many makers advertised? It's ridiculous.

It didn't happen, as all the NAND manufacturers hit the brakes on new nodes, since the cost dropped too fast and here we are.

In fairness though, if you look at the numbers, the prices have apparently gone down in the first quarter of this year by 18-23 percent in the consumer space and is expected to go up by 3-8 percent, which means in reality, this slight increase is unlikely to affect retail prices.

 

[TheinsanegamerN]

Two years ago I watched 4 TB drives reach 160 EUR, and I said to myself I'll wait for 8 TB drives, anyday now - I'm waiting for them since 2020... And they're still extremely expensive - not just because of the capacity, for most the price per TB is twice the cost of lower capacity models.

And after price increases two years ago we'll get another price increase, a lot of new models now only come in max 2 TB sizes etc... What happened to the announced larger capacity consumer drives, and lower cost per TB many makers advertised? It's ridiculous.

I simply gave up waiting and embraced the world of U.2 drives. I could pay $1100 for a 8TB consumer drive from sabarent, or for $1289 I can get a 15.36TB kioxia CD6R drive.

 

[Bwaze]

In fairness though, if you look at the numbers, the prices have apparently gone down in the first quarter of this year by 18-23 percent in the consumer space and is expected to go up by 3-8 percent, which means in reality, this slight increase is unlikely to affect retail prices.

Doubt?

Prices went down 18-23 percent compared to what?

It didn't happen, as all the NAND manufacturers hit the brakes on new nodes, since the cost dropped too fast and here we are.

But "the cost dropped too fast" was a 2023 "problem", and we had a huge increase in SSD prices in fall of 2023 - which mainly still holds, you can't buy a 4 TB SSD for 160 EUR. Why can't we have a storage price from 2 years ago? What happened to progress?

And the articles about upcoming new nodes or extra layer NAND chips that promised lower prices and bigger consumer drives were from 2024 and early 2025 - quite some time after that "hurtful" price drop (which didn't last long, yet we hear it as an excuse for everything two years later).

Some articles about new nodes / layer increase that promise cheaper and larger drives:

Samsung to showcase record-smashing 280-layer QLC NAND flash memory chip — expect cheaper, large capacity SSDs but endurance remains an unknown - Feb 2024

Samsung plans big capacity jump for SSDs, preps 290-layer V-NAND this year, 430-layer for 2025 - April 2024

16TB M.2 SSDs will soon grace the market — Kioxia unveils 2Tb 3D QLC NAND to build bigger SSDs - July 2024

SSD capacity could quadruple by 2029 — 8Tb NAND will bring big and affordable SSDs to the market -October 2024

Samsung Aims for 1000-Layer NAND by 2030, Begins Wafer Bonding at 400 Layers - February 2025

 

[TheLostSwede]

Prices went down 18-23 percent compared to what?

You do understand that TrendForce aren't talking about retail pricing, right?
The pricing they follow is what the manufacturers charge and there's normally a few months gap between that and retail pricing changing.
Also, there are quite a few middlemen in-between, as you hopefully know, so just because it gets cheaper for the distributors, doesn't mean it gets cheaper for you.

But "the cost dropped too fast" was a 2023 "problem", and we had a huge increase in SSD prices in fall of 2023 - which mainly still holds, you can't buy a 4 TB SSD for 160 EUR. Why can't we have a storage price from 2 years ago? What happened to progress?

Do you really think a delayed production node takes a few weeks to start? They most likely didn't even bother buying the manufacturing equipment needed when they hit the brakes. As such, those new nodes have only just now gone into production and as you hopefully are aware, new nodes always costs more in the beginning, so maybe in a year or two, we'll see those new nodes getting more affordable.

You linking to articles about upcoming nodes that have NOT gone into production, doesn't make NAND any cheaper.
Also, doing a sample run to "showcase" something, until mass production, normally has a 6-12 month gap.

 

[Bwaze]

I understand that the news article is about NAND chips, not retail prices of end products. But I bet we will see the result of:

"client SSD contract prices are projected to rise 3% to 8% QoQ in Q2"

Already in Q2, but the:

"prices have apparently gone down in the first quarter of this year by 18-23 percent in the consumer space"

Won't be seen anywhere in the end product prices.

About the articles about new nodes that will bring higher capacities and lower prices in consumer SSDs - I have only linked the ones from 2024 and 2025 because those came out after the "the cost dropped too fast, all the NAND manufacturers hit the brakes on new nodes" excuse, since the prices have shot up again in fall of 2023. There are of course older articles announcing new nodes, new cheaper and larger capacity consumer drives, and yet here we are, nearly in mid 2025, 5 years after Samsung launched 8 TB consumer SSD, and it's still the cheapest one, and more or less the highest capacity available. How many jumps in enterprise space have we seen in the last 5 years? Consumer space is completely detached from that now.