Omdia Forecasts Nintendo Switch 2 Will Sell 14.7 Million Units in 2025

[Nomad76]

Omdia forecasts show that Nintendo Switch 2 will sell nearly 15 million units globally in 2025, following its confirmed launch date of June 5.

This would put the Switch 2 ahead of its predecessor by around 10% during its first calendar year on the market. Historical Omdia data reveals 13.4 million Nintendo Switch systems were sold in 2017, despite its earlier March release. The key factors driving this momentum include a strong user base - Omdia estimates 105 million Switch consoles remained in active use at the end of 2024, providing Nintendo with a solid foundation for the next generation.



A key first-party title also supports Omdia's forecast. Mario Kart World headlines Nintendo's first-party line-up for 2025, is exclusive to Nintendo Switch 2, and offers a visible generational leap over Mario Kart 8. Close to one in two Switch owners have purchased predecessor Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, making it the ideal sequel to attach to the new hardware.

However, although Switch 2 will exceed sales in the first year for the original Switch in 2017, Omdia believes that by year 4, Switch 2 will have sold fewer units than at its predecessor's equivalent point. This is primarily down to the fourth year in the original Switch's cycle coinciding with COVID lockdowns, which provided an enormous boost to the games industry.

Since Nintendo revitalized the dedicated handheld gaming devices market with the original Switch, new entrants such as Steam Deck, PlayStation Portal, and other PC handheld gaming devices have expanded options for players.

Yet the Switch and Switch 2 remain the only standalone platforms in this space - players must purchase the hardware to access Nintendo's ecosystem of content. As a result, the Switch 2 is poised to cement Nintendo's leadership in this space. Omdia's Games Handhelds Sales Metrics Database currently forecasts that both Nintendo Switch and Nintendo Switch 2 hardware will command a dominant 85% share of handheld sales volumes in 2025.

However, Switch 2 will not be without challenges, not least in terms of Nintendo competing with itself throughout the lifecycle of the device. The company has released over 100 first-party titles for the original Switch, with around three-quarters of them selling at least 1 million copies each.

These games will be brought forward to the new generation, but most were already highly polished on the existing Nintendo Switch hardware.

"First-party software is the primary content driver for Switch hardware adoption, a stark contrast to PlayStation and Xbox," said James McWhirter, Senior Analyst in Omdia's Games team. "Nintendo will need to work hard to communicate a clear generational leap with the Switch 2 throughout its life cycle, as its new games will exist alongside the extensive library of previous titles that do not require a console upgrade for users to enjoy."

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[sephiroth117]

It's too expensive outside Japan.

I was really surprised by the games prices but also the console
I don't mind the console because, it's like one purchase each 8 years or so for Nintendo hardwares...but 90EUR a physical version of Mario Kart ? Come on
Pretty sure resellers will have lower prices tho..but still

 

[cvaldes]

It's worth pointing out that global exchange rates between 2017 and 2025 have changed dramatically. It was never realistic to expect a linear price increase across the board for all currencies between Switch and Switch 2 (and their respective titles).

The hardware change provides Nintendo and their software partners to reset both hardware and software pricing to reflect today's various regional economies. Don't forget that Nintendo is a Japanese company, mostly paying Japanese employees, and paying Japanese taxes. They will adjust regional pricing to accommodate for currency exchange rates when bringing the money back home to Japan (not to the USA, Switzerland, UK, Europe, wherever).

My guess is that Switch 2 and its content library will sell well outside of Japan, just like it did with Switch. Price reductions for Nintendo physical media does happen but deep discounts (i.e., beyond short-term 25% discounts) are pretty darned rare. Digital downloads get more frequent discounts.

Ultimately the average Nintendo gamer spends more on content, peripherals, etc. than they do on the original base console hardware. Even back in the Nineties, Nintendo stated that customers purchased an average of 7 games for a console generation and this has basically remained around the same decades later.

As we have discussed in another thread, US$100 in 2017 dollars is US$130 in 2025 dollars when adjusted for inflation. The fact that the Switch 2 is coming in at US$449 in mid-2025 is completely within the reasonable price increase window.

 

[TheLostSwede]

It's too expensive outside Japan.

I was really surprised by the games prices but also the console
I don't mind the console because, it's like one purchase each 8 years or so for Nintendo hardwares...but 90EUR a physical version of Mario Kart ? Come on
Pretty sure resellers will have lower prices tho..but still

It tells you one thing, they want to get rid of physical games.

 

[cvaldes]

It tells you one thing, they want to get rid of physical games.

And why wouldn't they? There is plenty of precedence already in other media industries.

iTunes basically killed off audio CDs and Netflix (after adeptly handling mail-order rental) buried rival Blockbuster before marching off to dominate streaming television. Now many people don't even do digital downloads of music, they just subscribe to a streaming service. And it has been years since Netflix mailed out a silvery disc.

How often do you go to a record store to flip through CDs? Hell, even the Music section at Target is about 10% of what it was ten years ago.

And how many bookstores have closed in your area?

Consumer content consumption constantly changes and if a business wants to be successful they need to adapt. Don't blame Nintendo. Consumers are the biggest reason for the change.

Nintendo isn't hawking hanafuda cards anymore. In fact, the newly opened Nintendo Museum in Kyoto is on the site of an former distribution warehouse.

 

[rv8000]

I was confident we would’ve seen higher than $499, so I’m rather surprised.

The price shift for media sucks, moving closer and closer to pure subscription models wherever they (or any company) can; I will stop purchasing games and or consoles at that point in time. There will only be a handful of titles I’d grab a switch for at this point anyways.

Younger generations seem to not care about subscriptions as they’ve grown up alongside sub models for nearly everything, but not owning and or having the ability to tangibly have something is just a sad truth of where we are as consumers. It’s a good thing 90% or more of new titles released are just pure garbage or reskinned copies.

 

[cvaldes]

Well, Nintendo has to adapt to changing consumer tastes otherwise they wouldn't be around for 140+ years.

You are free to stop purchasing consoles and videogames when you feel it is no longer somewhere you want to put your hard-earned dollars.

For what it's worth, Nintendo doesn't sell hanafuda cards anymore. Maybe you can find some on Etsy, Rakuten, or AliExpress though. No DRM on physical playing cards. And pick up a ukulele and cancel that Spotify subscription!



Speaking of Spotify, Apple dominated digital downloads in the music industry for many years which itself disrupted the physical media music business (vinyl, audio CDs, SACD, Blu-ray Audio, bricks-and-mortar stores like Tower Records). But people's patterns changed and Apple finally started their Apple Music streaming service, years after Pandora and Spotify pioneered the space. There are other new players in the streaming music industry as well. Things don't just stay the same.

Hell, you probably don't get your news by walking to a newspaper vending machine and feeding it a quarter. Or waiting until 6pm to turn on your local television news.

 

[_roman_]

The "germans" are crying about high price for the console and the games. And some rambling about not being able to sell the games second hand. I'll see the details anyway.

Switch 2 will be the new newspiece for a long time again.

 

[cvaldes]

I don't think it's just one nation's citizens who complain about price increases whether it be videogames, toilet paper, or eggs. Singling out one country by name is a bit unsportsmanlike.

Note that Nintendo has not completely eliminated physical media with Switch 2. However they have priced the physical copies at a premium which will depress physical media sales for sure because a lot of people will balk at paying the premium (many have already voiced their displeasure).

Unsurprisingly this is no different than music. Physical compact discs cost more than digital downloads (both of which you own). You can't resell the latter but they are at a discounted price. Streaming audio is even cheaper per song but you are just renting it.

 

[FoulOnWhite]

I will probably grab one. Already have a lot of digital only switch games, bought this way so i cannot sell them when i am skint, so will always have them.

 

[Kaleid]

Lost quite a bit interest. It's more expensive than expected and none of the Nintendo games looked interesting. Mario Kart will be more of the same for instance..

 

[cvaldes]

Like I have said before, Switch 2 lands in the window of what acceptable pricing would be.

If you don't like it, that's fine. No one can please everyone all the time.

Nintendo doesn't need your money. It just needs enough other people to buy into their plan. It's not like there's another videogame hardware company that is doing any better. Be real: Valve isn't going to sell 150+ million SteamDeck units.

And Valve knows this. That's not their goal with SteamDeck. Their main goal is to create a vibrant marketplace of third-party PC-based handheld devices who will drive Steam software sales. They really don't care about taking over the handheld PC gaming marketplace. They make money off the software.

Unsurprisingly Nintendo's business model is to sell software (content). Nothing new about this. Nintendo had the same focus decades ago.