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TSMC CoWoS Capacity Doubles for Two Years, Still Insufficient: TrendForce

btarunr

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At TSMC's earnings call on the 17th, the company revealed that its CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity will double each year in 2024 and 2025, but demand will continue to outpace supply. According to a report from Money DJ, the CoWoS expansion wave is expected to extend into 2026, promising strong growth for equipment suppliers for at least the next two to three years.

TSMC stated that advanced packaging currently accounts for approximately 7-9% of its revenue, and growth in this segment is expected to outpace the company's average over the next five years. While the gross margin for advanced packaging is slightly below the company average, it is steadily approaching it. Regarding CoWoS capacity, customer demand significantly exceeds TSMC's ability to supply, even with production capacity doubling year-on-year in both 2024 and 2025.



According to Money DJ, citing supply chain sources, TSMC has already provided equipment manufacturers with its machine requirements for 2026 and placed orders. Delivery schedules for next year are essentially fully booked, and TSMC is currently working with equipment suppliers to finalize shipment and installation plans for 2026.

The report noted that TSMC's CoWoS monthly production capacity is expected to reach 35,000 to 40,000 wafers this year, and surge to 80,000 wafers per month next year. Originally, the expansion wave was anticipated to slow somewhat by 2026, with monthly capacity reaching around 100,000 to 120,000 wafers. However, strong and urgent demand from major AI customers continues to drive capacity needs, and with the addition of more equipment, TSMC's CoWoS capacity could still see significant expansion, potentially reaching 140,000 to 150,000 wafers per month by 2026.

In addition, the report provided an overview of TSMC's advanced packaging supply chain. Key suppliers for wet process equipment include GPTC and Scientech, which provide automated wet benches and single wafer spin processors. Scientech holds a significant share of CoWoS equipment orders, while GPTC remains a key global supplier for major packaging and testing companies like ASE, Micron, Amkor, and Chinese packaging firms.

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I have only been paying attention to the supply shortage and the difficulty finding a gaming card that wasn't way overpriced, even up to 3X MSRP by scalpers, during the last mining craze and then the Pandemic but I don't see that there will ever be anything but a shortage due to the AI craze. Especially if it lasts a long time. I don't think TSMC would ever want to be in an oversupply situation so they will probably always hold back expansion at least a little to avoid that.
 
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Looks like a technology that could be done by other players at bigger scales
 
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Massive oversupply likely if LLMs don't get a decent front end ultimately?

Already seeing weekly price cuts pretty much from AMD.
 
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As far as Sam Altman starting clinching and twisting in his appearances, clearly something with gpt 5 didn't go right, or even NOTHING went right. Apparently Microsoft are on the clock, because for a few days there have been rumors of a break in the relationship for many reasons, some of the ones specified seem too minor to cause a break, so it can be assumed that the problem is not exactly those petty reasons...
 
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This is TSMC's business model. Price it to the roof and be only able to manufacture a quarter of what your customers order, then play your customers off each other for even more profit...
 
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Massive oversupply likely if LLMs don't get a decent front end ultimately?

Already seeing weekly price cuts pretty much from AMD.
I doubt that, when they manage to get the substrate to run as fast as the chips them selves there would be little to no reason not to work with the system.
It would make low yields not matter as much either
 
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If the US government gave to TSMC big incentives ($$) to build new cutting-edge technology factories on US soil, there would be fewer problems of low supply and high prices.

New TSMC factories with cutting-edge technology on american soil are needed yesterday!
 
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If the US government gave to TSMC big incentives ($$) to build new cutting-edge technology factories on US soil, there would be fewer problems of low supply and high prices.

New TSMC factories with cutting-edge technology on american soil are needed yesterday!
On US soil salaries is in US ranges. How this fact will reflect on prices?
 
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This is TSMC's business model. Price it to the roof and be only able to manufacture a quarter of what your customers order, then play your customers off each other for even more profit...
Congrats! You just gave another technical definition for callous GREED.
Yes, greed is the main drive for all those mega corporations.
For us, the low end user, the only thing we can do is to vote with our wallets, but since the offer is scarce, there are always suckers willing to buy the overpriced junk, just because...
 
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