Asteroid 2024 YR4 reaches level 3 on the Torino Scale

[KLiKzg]

I do hope everyone here knows the significance of this! ​

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news210.html

 

[Vayra86]

Time to make yourself useful, Elon

 

[KLiKzg]

Time to make yourself useful, Elon

View attachment 384074

Not exactly...as there is experience with DART mission!

But it is very serious, as ESA called up this week SMPAG, link: https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Pl...ively_monitoring_near-Earth_asteroid_2024_YR4

While, NASA has risen the impact probability to 2,3% (or 1 : 43 ratio), link: https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydef...onitor-orbit-of-near-earth-asteroid-2024-yr4/

 

[ty_ger]

Time to make yourself useful, Elon

Ever seen "Don't Look Up"? I see that as more likely.

 

[Vayra86]

Ever seen "Don't Look Up"? I see that as more likely.

Yeah it crossed my mind lol. We're living it!

 

[DirtyDingusMcgee]

I do hope everyone here knows the significance of this! ​

I do. It has none.

 

[KLiKzg]

If I remember correctly, even Apophis was only Torino scale 1 after discovery.

But there are people still...

I do. It has none.

 

[A Computer Guy]

I do hope everyone here knows the significance of this!

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news210.html

It pretty much means I probably won't be able to get that used RTX 5090 on ebay for a decent price in time before impact.

 

[ratirt]

It pretty much means I probably won't be able to get that used RTX 5090 on ebay for a decent price in time before impact.

I would wait. If the asteroid hits the price will go down

 

[AusWolf]

2032? Dammit, I won't even be able to access my pension fund by then.

 

[the54thvoid]

Science thread, folks. Science please.

 

[AusWolf]

Science thread, folks. Science please.

Right.

Personally, the only conclusion I could draw from the article is that the asteroid will disappear from sight in April this year, so we'll only know more in 2028 when it reappears. I don't see a reason to be scared before that time (and maybe not even then, we'll see).

 

[lexluthermiester]

I do hope everyone here knows the significance of this! ​

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news210.html

Mark your calendar folks, the end of the world comes in 2032.

 

[the54thvoid]

One day an asteroid will hit Earth. Humans are lucky enough (or ignorant enough) to live relatively short lifespans that fall in between cosmological events. It's the same for people who choose (or have no choice but to) live near active volcanoes, the risk is mitigated by time, but over time the odds of something dangerous happening increase.

The last huge impact, I think, was the Tunguska event. It impacted in a remote area of Siberia. There was also Chelyabinsk in Russia (being the largest landmass, it's going to have the greater chance of a detected strike). Chelyabinsk exploded (torn apart by air friction) 14 miles up. At that height the estimated 440 kilotonne blast wasn't lethal, but blew out windows over a 200 square mile area.

The Hiroshima atomic bomb had an equivalance of 15 kilotonnes of TNT, but detonated between 1500 & 2000 feet. That explosion killed 70,000 people instantly. Meteors and asteroids are a real threat, but only when considered over multiple human life spans. As for this one in the OP, I'm not personally worried about it. It'll be tracked and if deemed a hazard, things can be done.

 

[lexluthermiester]

I do. It has none.

Given the calculated orbital path, the possibility is not zero. It's not high but not zero. More time is needed to track and calculate the orbital path with more precision. It'll need a computer modeling run or two to narrow down the window of intersection.

At that height the estimated 440 kilotonne blast wasn't lethal

It killed wildlife and leveled an entire swath of forest. It was lethal within a certain range of the blast, but that range was limited to a few hundred square miles.
Edit: I was talking about Tunguska which was also an airburst type impact.

 

[the54thvoid]

It killed wildlife and leveled an entire swath of forest. It was lethal within a certain range of the blast, but that range was limited to a few hundred square miles.
Edit: I was talking about Tunguska which was also an airburst type impact.

When I say it wasn't lethal - I meant nobody was killed by it. Had it remained intact and broken up closer to the ground, it would have been a different thing altogther.

 

[lexluthermiester]

When I say it wasn't lethal - I meant nobody was killed by it. Had it remained intact and broken up closer to the ground, it would have been a different thing altogther.

Right, sorry..

 

[AusWolf]

Given the calculated orbital path, the possibility is not zero. It's not high but not zero. More time is needed to track and calculate the orbital path with more precision. It'll need a computer modeling run or two to narrow down the window of intersection.

We'll have a lot more chance to do all that in 2028 when it approaches Earth again, I suppose.

 

[lexluthermiester]

We'll have a lot more chance to do all that in 2028 when it approaches Earth again, I suppose.

Exactly. The other thing is, if it's close to a strike, the world's leaders will have a chance to test the nuclear impact trajectory altering theory. It'll likely come down to the US as we have the most accurate ICBM's on offer. If it happens, it'll be fun to watch, assuming it happens within view of our side of the planet. But we do have telescopes which can watch so their is that.

 

[AusWolf]

Exactly. The other thing is, if it's close to a strike, the worlds leaders will have a chance to test the nuclear impact trajectory altering theory. It'll likely come down to the US as we have the most accurate ICBM's on offer. If it happens, it'll be fun to watch, assuming it happens within view of our side of the planet. But we do have telescopes which can watch so their is that.

I wouldn't want to see a nuclear explosion with my naked eyes. Not because it wouldn't be fun, but for other reasons. Kind of reminds me of this:

 

[Caring1]

It's a distraction only, if it was a real EOL event possibility the Governments of the world would not tell us.

 

[mclaren85]

Even it impacts the earth, human life will continue. We proved that we are so resilient than any other species

 

[R-T-B]

If I remember correctly, even Apophis was only Torino scale 1 after discovery.

But there are people still...

View attachment 384151

indicates it has a more than 1% chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032 — which also means there is almost a 99% chance this asteroid will not impact.

It's statistically significant and shows we should be ready, but that's about it.

Even it impacts the earth, human life will continue. We proved that we are so resilient than any other species

Dinosaurs thought the same. You simply can't survive a big enough rock unless you are ready for it.

 

[Assimilator]

We're talking about an object under ~100m in diameter, so a Tunguska-level amount of damage i.e in the 15-megation range. Enough to wipe out any city that it hits, but given that Earth is a predominantly water world, and cities make up a relatively small portion of the landmass, I don't see much cause for concern.

The last huge impact, I think, was the Tunguska event. It impacted in a remote area of Siberia.

Tunguska was also an airburst at ~5 - 10km altitude.

 

[the54thvoid]

We're talking about an object under ~100m in diameter, so a Tunguska-level amount of damage i.e in the 15-megation range. Enough to wipe out any city that it hits, but given that Earth is a predominantly water world, and cities make up a relatively small portion of the landmass, I don't see much cause for concern.


Tunguska was also an airburst at ~5 - 10km altitude.

Yup, my semantic mistake. I said impact without thinking.

That's the thing, these were 'smaller' objects that broke apart under the atmospheric stresses. The material composition also plays a role.