Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[trog100]

bitcoin down to 25700.. a bit of a general crypto flash crash.. general fallout from the SEC suing binance..

long term good for bitcoin and eth not so good for a lot of the rest..

trog

ps.. it seems they are now suing coinbase as well.. so far the market seem to be mostly shrugging this off.. bitcoin now at 25850..

ps2.. at the end of the day bitcoin back up to 27K.. quite a rebound..

 

[mb194dc]

Only another 25700 down to go I guess ? Is anyone actually using block chain for something outside of speculation in "currencies" yet ?

 

[trog100]

after a couple of weeks in the doldrums bitcoin is now back up over 28K... the talk is that big institutional money is moving into bitcoin and a big upside move is expected.. i think the talk is probably right.. time will tell..

trog

 

[80-watt Hamster]

after a couple of weeks in the doldrums bitcoin is now back up over 28K... the talk is that big institutional money is moving into bitcoin and a big upside move is expected.. i think the talk is probably right.. time will tell..

trog

What's the outlook on altcoins?

 

[mb194dc]

after a couple of weeks in the doldrums bitcoin is now back up over 28K... the talk is that big institutional money is moving into bitcoin and a big upside move is expected.. i think the talk is probably right.. time will tell..

trog

Based on what fundamentals?

You can at least get 4% return in the bank these days. Even nvda at 40x price to sales ratio probably works out better over 20 years.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin just short of 29K.. up over 8% up on the day.. i dont think this is a flash in the pan type of upwards move i think its a steady and sustainable move.. how high it goes is anybodies guess..

altcoins are all moving up but i think they are just temporarily following bitcoin.. how sustainable this is i dont know and wont hazard a guess..

in short crypto has just been given a seal of approval by institutional big money..

trog

ps.. bitcoin hit 30400 today (wednesday but then dropped back a bit.. its leveled off at just over 30K..

eth is at 1890..

 

[trog100]

sunday.. bitcoin now steady around 30500 having gone as high as 31400.. eth is around 1900..

i expect more upside movement during the coming week but nothing is certain..

trog

 

[trog100]

bitcoin moving sideways around 30600 with eth at 1950.. eth is slowly gaining ground relative to bitcoin..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

bitcoin moving sideways around 30600 with eth at 1950.. eth is slowly gaining ground relative to bitcoin..

trog

BTC's been plateauing for almost the last three months, and ETH has been doing the same for almost the whole year. They're really not been doing anything.

 

[trog100]

well things have changed somewhat over the last few months..

bitcoin now around $47000 with eth at around $27000..

where to now i wonder..

trog

edit for the price of eth.. 2700 not 27000.. dementia setting in.. he he..

 

[P4-630]

Grayscale Claims Bragging Rights for First Spot Bitcoin ETF to Begin Trading

Grayscale's conversion of its $27 billion bitcoin trust into an ETF was finally approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday

www.coindesk.com

 

[LFaWolf]

I say $100k for BTC and $5k for ETH by the end of the year! I should have bought more BTC last year.

 

[kapone32]

Up by $5000 in 2 days.

 

[lexluthermiester]

with eth at around $27000..

I think you have one too many zero's there..

 

[dragontamer5788]

Up by $5000 in 2 days.

Down $5000 in 24-hours.

What market givith, it taketh away.

This massive sell started at 10am today, about 30-minutes into the trading day (30 minutes after ETFs started trading). I was on the sell-side theory (GBTC finally a real ETF, so market-makers can trade previously worthless GBTC shares for real BTC and then sell BTC on the open market). I don't have any evidence of this happening aside from this price movement though, but I'd like to see if anyone can make an argument for why the price would otherwise drop during this ETF open.

--------

EDIT: I'll say the true test of the ETF-market is at 4pm Eastern time (New York time) today. The last 30 minutes are the most important to the stock market, and the last minute of market close is the most important of them all. That's when by far, the most trades happen in practice. Market open is perhaps the 2nd most important minute in the trading day however.

 

[Vya Domus]

I was on the sell-side theory (GBTC finally a real ETF, so market-makers can trade previously worthless GBTC shares for real BTC and then sell BTC on the open market).

You'd expect GBTC to tank way more than the price of BTC if that were to be the case.

 

[ThrashZone]

well things have changed somewhat over the last few months..

bitcoin now around $47000 with eth at around $27000..

where to now i wonder..

trog

edit for the price of eth.. 2700 not 27000.. dementia setting in.. he he..

Hi,
Wishful think more like hehe

 

[dragontamer5788]

You'd expect GBTC to tank way more than the price of BTC if that were to be the case.

That's not how ETFs work.

Lets say 1,139 GBTC is equivalent to 1 BTC. If GBTC is at $20 but BTC is at $44000, then all market-makers have a risk-free trade.

1. Buy 1139 GBTC (which raises the price of GBTC) for $22780
2. Convert packs of 1139 GBTC into 1x BTC (the legal requirement to be an ETF: market makers can "trade" the ETF for the underlying).
3. Sell the BTC for $44000 (depressing the price of BTC). Thereby making a profit of $21k or so.

Lather rinse, repeat until the two prices are matched up perfectly. Each iteration increases the price of GBTC while depressing the price of BTC. That's literally how-and-why ETFs work at all. Its a risk-free trade to make the two entities closer together, so "everyone knows" it will happen.

So while there's a degree of "float", as it takes minutes for trades to happen in practice, the overall prices stay close enough that the ETF functions "like" the underlying.

---------

EDIT: Pricing errors do happen in practice. But your argument is like saying "But what if $100 were found in a crowded subway station on the floor?". That's pretty much not going to happen, because we know "someone" will pick it up. And if you see it, you should pick it up faster because you want to be the person to make the free money / risk-free trade.

So in the long run, the expectation of true ETFs (which GBTC just became one a few hours ago) will closely track the underlying. Even if there's huge sell pressure on GBTC alone, it will translate (in a few minutes) into a real-and-true BTC sell order, which will depress the price of BTC. Albeit indirectly: whoever felt like doing the "free market trade" will do it, but the big banks can be relatively trusted to quickly and quietly make free money whenever they see an opportunity.

 

[Vya Domus]

1. Buy 1139 GBTC (which raises the price of GBTC) for $22780
2. Convert packs of 1139 GBTC into 1x BTC (the legal requirement to be an ETF: market makers can "trade" the ETF for the underlying).
3. Sell the BTC for $44000 (depressing the price of BTC). Thereby making a profit of $20k.

This should still drive GTBC down considerably, no one is really buying GBTC right now the numbers don’t lie.

BTC went down because the ETF approval was already priced in, everyone and their dog expected it to happen.

 

[dragontamer5788]

This should still drive GTBC down considerably, no one is really buying GBTC right now the numbers don’t lie.

What I just described there would be GBTC outflow actually.

IE: GBTC was destroyed and turned into BTC. That raises the price of GBTC, while lowering the price of BTC.

BTC went down because the ETF approval was already priced in

"Priced In" means that the price doesn't move. Not $5000 movements in 24 hours or so.

The price went down because people sold BTC today. The price went up a few days ago because people were buying BTC a few days ago. That's it. Now we can hypothesize why that's happening, and to the best of my ability, my GBTC / BTC trade I described earlier seems to be my best explanation. But feel free to offer your theories.

 

[Vya Domus]

"Priced In" means that the price doesn't move.

It didn’t, like you pointed out the sell off didn’t begin instantly, if GBTC was being traded for BTC I’d imagine there would have been no delay whatsoever.

People sold because they expected more, that didn’t happen, so they sold for whatever profit they amounted to in these past few days.

Some with leveraged positions also got wiped out by that twitter hack, that also made people cautious and eager to sell.

 

[kapone32]

If Bitcoin has gone to be an official ETF I expect the price to swing heavily in the coming months. People will buy and sell and some bots are set to sell when Bitcoin hits $60000 Canadian. That number might need to be adjusted as time passes on an upward trend. There are so many ways to earn digital currency that it has banks offering real interest rates on Saving accounts.

 

[dragontamer5788]

It didn’t, like you pointed out the sell off didn’t begin instantly, if GBTC was being traded for BTC I’d imagine there would have been no delay whatsoever.

People sold because they expected more, that didn’t happen, so they sold for whatever profit they amounted to in these past few days.

Some with leveraged positions also got wiped out by that twitter hack, that also made people cautious and eager to sell.

Traders Pull $579 Million Out of Grayscale Bitcoin ETF

(Bloomberg) -- Investors have pulled over a half of a billion dollars from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during its first days of trading as an ETF.Most Read from BloombergIowa Latest: Haley Unveils New Ad, Looking to New HampshireBonds Slide as Fed’s Waller Downplays Need to Rush: Markets...

finance.yahoo.com

Okay, we have the proof now that GBTC is being sold in enormous amounts now: $579+ Million sold, as I expected. It seems like the in-flows into other ETFs are in the 1-billion range, so overall BTC has been bought, if anyone's caring about the bigger picture. But the huge outflows from GBTC have mitigated the effect (GBTC selling many real BTCs, which offsets the buying from other funds).

The outflows from Grayscale’s ETF aren’t entirely unexpected. Bloomberg Intelligence forecasted that the fund will drain over $1 billion over the coming weeks.

“Lots of this capital will find its way back into other Bitcoin exposures,” Seyffart said.

Some investors are fleeing to cheaper spot Bitcoin ETFs. With an expense ratio of 1.5%, GBTC is the most expensive US ETF that invests directly in Bitcoin. The second-most expensive fund, the VanEck Bitcoin Trust, charges 0.25%.

GBTC will be sold because its a terrible deal at 1.5%. Everyone else's funds are well below 0.25% fees. If you're into this BTC ETF thing for whatever reason, you absolutely need to avoid high-fees like what GBTC does here.

 

[Vya Domus]

Okay, we have the proof now that GBTC is being sold in enormous amounts now: $579+ Million sold, as I expected. It seems like the in-flows into other ETFs are in the 1-billion range, so overall BTC has been bought, if anyone's caring about the bigger picture. But the huge outflows from GBTC have mitigated the effect (GBTC selling many real BTCs, which offsets the buying from other funds).

Fair enough but this seems to have taken place on a much slower timeline than you suggested initially. I still think most just tried to sell the news and as enthusiasm fizzled out this started to happen as well.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Fair enough but this seems to have taken place on a much slower timeline than you suggested initially. I still think most just tried to sell the news and as enthusiasm fizzled out this started to happen as well.

GBTC has had -$500 million per day, every day. In fact, today is a -$700+ million outflow alone.

It seems like FTX's bankruptcy is a big part of this. The bankruptcy court is likely ordering FTX's liquidation of its GBTC holdings.

This isn't "sell the news". This is exactly what I said before: GBTC is seeing outflows. That remains the big story right now and the biggest single contributor that I can see that's leading to this declining BTC price. Tying back into FTX was not what I expected, but the evidence is clear now.