Following in the wake of an earthquake that struck on April 3rd, TrendForce undertook an in-depth analysis of its effects on the DRAM industry, uncovering a sector that has shown remarkable resilience and faced minimal interruptions. Despite some damage and the necessity for inspections or disposal of wafers among suppliers, the facilities' strong earthquake preparedness of the facilities has kept the overall impact to a minimum.

Leading DRAM producers, including Micron, Nanya, PSMC, and Winbond had all returned to full operational status by April 8th. In particular, Micron's progression to cutting-edge processes—specifically the 1alpha and 1beta nm technologies—is anticipated to significantly alter the landscape of DRAM bit production. In contrast, other Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers are still working with 38 and 25 nm processes, contributing less to total output. TrendForce estimates that the earthquake's effect on DRAM production for the second quarter will be limited to a manageable 1%.

TrendForce reports a 29.6% QoQ in DRAM industry revenue for 4Q23, reaching US$17.46 billion, propelled by revitalized stockpiling efforts and strategic production control by leading manufacturers. Looking ahead to 1Q24, the intent to further enhance profitability is evident, with a projected near 20% increase in DRAM contract prices—albeit with a slight decrease in shipment volumes to the traditional off-season.

Samsung led the pack with the highest revenue growth among the top manufacturers in Q4 as it jumped 50% QoQ to hit $7.95 billion, largely due to a surge in 1alpha nm DDR5 shipments, boosting server DRAM shipments by over 60%. SK hynix saw a modest 1-3% rise in shipment volumes but benefited from the pricing advantage of HBM and DDR5, especially from high-density server DRAM modules, leading to a 17-19% increase in ASP and a 20.2% rise in revenue to $5.56 billion. Micron witnessed growth in both volume and price, with a 4-6% increase in each, resulting in a more moderate revenue growth of 8.9%, totaling $3.35 billion for the quarter due to its comparatively lower share of DDR5 and HBM.

TrendForce investigations reveal a significant leap in the DRAM industry for 3Q23, with total revenues soaring to US$13.48 billion—marking 18% QoQ growth. This surge is attributed to a gradual resurgence in demand, prompting buyers to re-energize their procurement activities. Looking ahead to Q4, while suppliers are firmly set on price hikes, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by approximately 13-18%, demand recovery will not be as robust as in previous peak seasons. Overall, while there is demand for stockpiling, procurement for the server sector remains tentative due to high inventory levels, suggesting limited growth in DRAM industry shipments for Q4.

Three major manufacturers witnessed Q3 revenue growth. Samsung's revenue increased by about 15.9% to US$5.25 billion thanks to stable demand for high-capacity products fueled by AI advancements and the rollout of its 1alpha nm DDR5. SK hynix showcased the most notable growth among manufacturers with a 34.4% increase, reaching about US$4.626 billion and significantly narrowing its market share gap with Samsung to less than 5%. Micron's revenue rose by approximately 4.2% to US$3.075 billion—despite a slight drop in ASP—supported by an upswing in demand and shipment volumes.

TrendForce reports that rising demand for AI servers has driven growth in HBM shipments. Combined with the wave of inventory buildup for DDR5 on the client side, the second quarter saw all three major DRAM suppliers experience shipment growth. Q2 revenue for the DRAM industry reached approximately US$11.43 billion, marking a 20.4% QoQ increase and halting a decline that persisted for three consecutive quarters. Among suppliers, SK hynix saw a significant quarterly growth of over 35% in shipments. The company's shipments of DDR5 and HBM, both of which have higher ASP, increased significantly. As a result, SK hynix's ASP grew counter-cyclically by 7-9%, driving its Q2 revenue to increase by nearly 50%. With revenue reaching US$3.44 billion, SK hynix claimed the second spot in the industry, leading growth in the sector.

Samsung, with its DDR5 process still at 1Ynm and limited shipments in the second quarter, experienced a drop in its ASP by around 7-9%. However, benefitting from inventory buildup by module houses and increased demand for AI server setups, Samsung saw a slight increase in shipments. This led to an 8.6% QoQ increase in Q2 revenue, reaching US$4.53 billion, securing them the top position. Micron, ranking third, was a bit late in HBM development. However, DDR5 shipments held a significant proportion, keeping their ASP relatively stable. Boosted by shipments, its revenue was around US$2.95 billion, a quarterly increase of 15.7%. Both companies saw a reduction in their market share.

TrendForce reports a dramatic 21.2% QoQ decline in Q1 revenues for the DRAM industry, bringing total revenue down to US$9.663 billion. This significant dip represents the third consecutive quarter where revenues have fallen. A closer look reveals that increased shipment volumes were exclusive to Micron, with other suppliers noting a decrease. The ASP fell for all three major suppliers. An enduring oversupply issue, which has led to an ongoing slump in prices, is the chief culprit behind the decline. Nevertheless, the industry expects a gradual slowing in the rate of price decline following planned production cuts. TrendForce's Q2 forecast suggests a rise in shipments, but the ongoing price fall might limit potential revenue growth.

Each of the three major suppliers—Samsung, Micron, and SK hynix—reported a drop in quarterly revenue. Samsung saw a decline in both shipment volumes and ASP due to fewer orders for its newly launched devices, resulting in a QoQ decrease in revenue of 24.7%, amounting to about US$4.17 billion. Benefiting from its earlier financial reporting and the tail-end orders of the previous year, Micron climbed to the second position in 1Q23. Despite being the only supplier among the big three to record positive shipment growth, Micron couldn't avoid a minor 3.8% revenue decline, taking its total down to US$2.72 billion. SK hynix faced the steepest decline, with more than a 15% drop in both shipment volume and ASP, leading to a drastic 31.7% plunge in revenue, amounting to approximately USD$2.31 billion.

GlobalFoundries (GF) today announced the appointment of Hui Peng Koh as vice president and general manager of the company's semiconductor manufacturing facility in Malta, New York. Building on her experience in leading the 1,200 strong engineering team in Malta for the last three years, Ms. Koh is stepping up to lead GF's most advanced U.S. fab that supports a wide range of customers. She succeeds long time GF executive and industry veteran Peter Benyon who will retire in early July 2023 after more than 40 years in the semiconductor industry including being part of the GF team since the acquisition of Chartered Semiconductor in 2011.

Ms. Koh, an accomplished leader with more than 23 years of semiconductor manufacturing experience, currently serves as vice president of manufacturing engineering at GF. Prior to her current role, she was the director of lithography and held various leadership positions at the company's Malta facility. Previously, she served in several technology development roles at GF's Singapore campus. Ms. Koh earned her master's degree in materials engineering from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

Last October, the US Department of Commerce imposed semiconductor restrictions on Chinese imports of equipment for processes of 18 nm and below. SK hynix's Wuxi fab was granted a one-year production license, but geopolitical risks and weak demand prompted the company to reduce wafer starts by about 30% per month in 2Q23, according to TrendForce's latest research.

TrendForce reports that SK hynix had planned to transition its Wuxi fab's mainstream process from 1Y nm to 1Z nm, decreasing the output of legacy processes. However, due to limitations imposed by the US ban, the company instead opted to increase the share of its 21 nm production lines, focus-ing on DDR3 and DDR4 4Gb products. SK hynix's long-term strategy involves shifting its capacity expansion back to South Korea, while the Wuxi fab caters to domestic demand in China and the legacy-process consumer DRAM market.

According to TrendForce's research, global DRAM revenue fell by 32.5% QoQ to US$12, 281 million for 4Q22. The QoQ decline for 4Q22 is larger than the QoQ decline of 28.8% for 3Q22 and comes close to the QoQ decline of 36% for the final quarter of 2008, when the global economy was in the midst of a major financial crisis. The main cause of the steep revenue drop in 4Q22 was the plummeting overall ASP. DRAM suppliers experienced a rapid accumulation of inventory in 3Q22 due to a freeze in buyers' demand. Subsequently, suppliers were much more energetic in price negotiations for 4Q22 contracts as they were struggling for market share. Among the major categories of DRAM products, server DRAM suffered the sharpest price drop in 4Q22. Contract prices of DDR4 and DDR5 server DRAM products registered QoQ drops of 23~28% and 30~35% respectively.

Global market intelligence firm TrendForce reports that for 3Q22, the revenue of the whole DRAM industry dropped by 28.9% QoQ to US$18.19 billion. This decline is the second largest to the one that the industry experienced in 2008, when the global economy was rocked by a major financial crisis. Regarding the state of the DRAM market in 3Q22, the QoQ decline in contract prices widened to the range of 10~15% as the demand for consumer electronics continued to shrink. Server DRAM shipments, which had been on a relatively stable trend compared with shipments of other types of DRAM products, also slowed down noticeably from the previous quarter as buyers began adjusting their inventory levels.

Turning to individual DRAM suppliers' performances in 3Q22, the top three suppliers (i.e., Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron) all exhibited a QoQ drop in revenue. Samsung posted US$7.40 billion and a QoQ drop of 33.5%, which was the largest among the top three. SK hynix's revenue fell by 25.2% QoQ to around US$5.24 billion. As for Micron, its revenue came to around US$4.81 billion. Since Micron marks its fiscal quarters differently, its DRAM ASP showed a QoQ decline that was smaller than the ones suffered by the two Korean suppliers. And as a result of this, Micron's QoQ revenue decline was also the smallest among the top three. TrendForce points out that the top three are still maintaining a relatively high operating margin at this moment. Nevertheless, the inventory correction period that has started this year will last through the first half of next year, so they will experience a continuing squeeze on profit.

On the evening of September 17, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4 on the Richter scale occurred in Guanshan Township, Taitung. Yesterday (9/18) afternoon, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8 on the Richter scale occurred in Chishang Township, Taitung. Following up on these recent powerful earthquakes, TrendForce's investigation into their impact on Taiwan's semiconductor and panel industries is as follows:

In terms of foundries, due to shock-absorbing plant designs, earthquake vibrations inside fabs are one level of magnitude less than outside. In terms of equipment manufacturers, currently there are no reports of substantial factory damage. In the worst case, some machinery required initialization after crashing. In terms of memory, Nanya Technology has already carried out a shutdown inspection. If there was any wafer damage, Nanya maintains sufficient inventory to compensate. Micron recalled engineers to inspect equipment and has confirmed no losses. Thus, the capacity utilization rate of these two companies has not been affected nor has supply.

Based on a report from IC Insights, it appears that the demand for semiconductors and memory is starting to slow down. The slowdown is industry wide, with most major players having seen a reduction in sales in June compared to May. Although the report is focused on Taiwanes semiconductor companies, it also mentions Micron, who is expecting a slowdown in the third quarter of this year. Micron is reportedly expecting a drop in sales by as much as 17 percent, although this past quarter the company saw an increase in sales by 11 percent compared to the previous quarter, or 19 percent compared to last year, so it could simply be that the market is starting to normalise.

As for the Taiwanese semiconductor companies, TSMC saw a reduction in sales of five percent in June, although its competitor UMC saw an increase of two percent. Two other Taiwanese foundries, Powerchip and Vanguard, saw a decrease of four percent and an increase of three percent respectively, which shows that the foundry businesses are seeing change based on the type of chips they make. Apart from Winbond and Macronix, the other four companies in the report saw a decrease in sales by anything between two and 26 percent. Novatek, a manufacturer of semiconductors for the display industry saw the biggest dip in sales, with memory manufacturer Nanya seeing a drop of 16 percent. It should be pointed out that Novatek saw an increase in sales of 78 percent during the pandemic, which suggests their customers might not be seeing the same demand for their end products as they did over the past two years. For now, this could just be a slowdown over the summer months, when demand is usually quite low, but it could also be an indication of a return to a more normalised market.

Nanya Technology, part of the Formosa Plastics Group, which is one of the largest conglomerates in Taiwan, will hold a ground-breaking ceremony for its new 12-inch fab that will be built in New Taipei City later this week. It'll be the biggest investment Nanya has done in the past decade, as the company is investing US$10.1 billion into building the new fab. This is obviously a lot less than TSMC is investing, but DRAM is made on different nodes to those that TSMC makes its customers products on, since DRAM doesn't benefit as much from node shrinking as other types of semiconductors.

The new fab will be located near one of Nanya's current fabs, in the Taishan district. Mass production is scheduled to start some time in 2025 and the fab is said to have a monthly capacity of around 45,000 wafers. Right now it's scheduled for a 10 nm technology node, but this might change by the time that the fab is up and running, especially considering that Nanya is already producing a range of 10 nm based products in some of its current fabs. Nanya's goal is to develop its next generation of 10 nm DRAM independently from other DRAM makers, as to avoid having to pay patent licence fees to its competitors.

According to TrendForce forecasts, average overall DRAM pricing in 2Q22 will drop by approximately 0~5%, due to marginally higher buyer and seller inventories coupled with the demand for products such as PCs, laptops, and smart phones being influenced in the short-term by the Russian-Ukrainian war and high inflation weakening consumer purchasing power. At present, the only remaining source of demand is on the server side, so overall DRAM stocks will remain oversupplied in 2Q22.

In terms of PC DRAM, PC OEMs are adopting a conservative stocking strategy for orders in 2Q22 due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, which may continue affecting orders during peak season in 2H22, and revising 2022 shipment targets downwards. Additionally, the overall supply of bits is still growing, so the PC DRAM price slump in 2Q22 will further expand to 3~8% and may continue to deteriorate.

Intel and AMD will be releasing new CPUs that support DDR5 DRAM solutions for PCs and servers this year. In response, the DRAM industry led by South Korean suppliers is developing solutions to complement the arrival of the new CPUs. In the midst of the gradual shift to DDR5, DRAM suppliers will also scale back the supply of DDR3 solutions, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. With Korean suppliers accelerating their withdrawal from DDR3 production, Taiwanese suppliers yet to kick off mass production using newly installed capacities, and Chinese suppliers falling short of their expected yield rate, the global supply of DDR3 solutions will undergo an impending decline. With respect to the demand side, however, not only has the supply of networking chips been ramping up, but material shortage issues are also gradually easing. As such, buyers are now procuring DDR3 solutions ahead of time, resulting in a tight supply and demand situation in the DDR3 market. TrendForce therefore expects DDR3 DRAM prices to recover from a bearish first quarter and undergo a 0-5% QoQ increase in 2Q22.

Despite the forecasted 18.6% YoY growth in total DRAM bit supply next year, the global DRAM market is still expected to shift from a shortage situation to an oversupply, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. This shift can primarily be attributed to the fact that, not only are most buyers now carrying a relatively high level of DRAM inventory, but DRAM bit demand is also expected to increase by only 17.1% YoY in 2022. On the price front, the oversupply situation will result in a drop in DRAM ASP in 2022 but not a major decline in annual DRAM revenue, thanks to the oligopolistic nature of the DRAM industry. Annual DRAM revenue for 2022 is expected to reach US$91.54 billion, which represents a slight YoY increase of 0.3%.

Based on an analysis of DRAM sufficiency ratio (which refers to the surplus of supply in comparison with demand) for each quarter in 2022, TrendForce forecasts a 15% YoY decrease in DRAM ASP for 2022, with prices undergoing the more noticeable declines during the first half of the year. Heading into 2H22, however, owing to the rise in DDR5 penetration rate, as well as the arrival of peak seasonal demand, the decline in DRAM ASP will likely narrow. TrendForce does not rule out the possibility that DRAM ASP may even hold flat or undergo an increase in 2H22.

DRAM contract prices are likely to exit a bullish period that lasted three quarters and be on the downswing in 4Q21 at a QoQ decline of 3-8%, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. This decline can be attributed to not only the declining procurement activities of DRAM buyers going forward, but also the drop in DRAM spot prices ahead of contract prices. While the buying and selling sides attempt to gain the advantage in future transactions, the DRAM market's movement in 2022 will primarily be determined by suppliers' capacity expansion strategies in conjunction with potential growths in demand. The capacity expansion plans of the three largest DRAM suppliers (Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron) for 2022 are expected to remain conservative, resulting in a 17.9% growth in total DRAM bit supply next year. On the demand side, inventory levels at the moment are relatively high. Hence, DRAM bit demand is expected to grow by 16.3% next year and lag behind bit supply growth. TrendForce therefore forecasts a shift in the DRAM market next year from shortage to surplus.

Good news everyone, for once it looks like prices are going to be going down for something computer related, as DRAM prices are expected to drop this quarter. At least this is what Nanya Technology Corporation's president, Dr. Pei-Ing Lee told investors during the company's third quarter results announcement, last week.

Apparently the word that was used was correction, although this is meant to be taken as a drop in prices for DRAM, due to less market demand. This is tied to the shortage of various components, not just in the consumer space, but also the server, and mobile devices space, as well as the EV market. That said, Nanya is expecting continued demand for mobile and server DRAM, as well as enterprise PC's and various other consumer products, as well as SSDs. The shortfall is likely to be from EVs, digital TV and specifically Chromebooks are mentioned.

After DRAM prices made a rebound into an upward trajectory in 1Q21, buyers expanded their DRAM procurement activities in 2Q21 as they anticipated a further price hike and insufficient supply going forward, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. Not only was demand robust from clients in the notebook segment, which benefitted from ongoing WFH and distance learning applications, but CSPs also sought to gradually replenish their DRAM inventories. Furthermore, demand for products that are relatively niche, including graphics DRAM and consumer DRAM, remained strong. Hence, DRAM suppliers experienced better-than-expected QoQ increases in their DRAM shipment for 2Q21. At the same time, DRAM quotes grew by a greater magnitude compared to the first quarter as well. With both shipment and quotes undergoing growths in tandem, DRAM suppliers registered remarkable growths in their revenues in 2Q21. Total DRAM revenue for 2Q21 reached US$24.1 billion, a 26% QoQ increase.

Driven by such factors as the continued development of autonomous driving technologies and the build-out of 5G infrastructure, the demand for automotive memories will undergo a rapid growth going forward, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. Take Tesla, which is the automotive industry leader in the application of autonomous vehicle technologies, as an example. Tesla has adopted GDDR5 DRAM products from the Model S and X onward because it has also adopted Nvidia's solutions for CPU and GPU. The GDDR5 series had the highest bandwidth at the time to complement these processors. The DRAM content has therefore reached at least 8 GB for vehicles across all model series under Tesla. The Model 3 is further equipped with 14 GB of DRAM, and the next-generation of Tesla vehicles will have 20 GB. If content per box is used as a reference for comparison, then Tesla far surpasses manufacturers of PCs and smartphones in DRAM consumption. TrendForce forecasts that the average DRAM content of cars will continue to grow in the next three years, with a CAGR of more than 30% for the period.

There will be no respite from the rising prices of DRAM chips over 2017, according to a report by Taiwan-based industry observer DigiTimes. Prices of DRAM chips directly affect DDR4 memory modules. Pei-Ing Lee, president of Nanya Technology, a DRAM maker, said that DRAM prices will continue to rally (rise) over the second quarter of 2017, but could stabilize (not necessarily fall) over the second half of the year.

The stability of DRAM prices could still depend on the capex plans of major DRAM manufacturers. The rise in DRAM prices is being attributed to tight supply. Nanya is upgrading its production lines to the new 20 nm node, with early production by the end of Q1-2017. Prices of consumer DDR4 memory modules have nearly doubled over the past six months. A typical 32 GB dual-channel DDR4 memory kit, which could be had for a little over USD $90 in Summer 2016, is now priced around $170.

Rambus Inc., the innovative technology solutions company, and Nanya Technology Corporation, the industry leading pure-play consumer memory company, today announced they have signed a broad five-year patent license agreement. This agreement allows for the use of certain high-performance, low-power patented innovations developed by Rambus in Nanya DRAM products and enables future technology collaboration.

Under this agreement, Rambus and Nanya have settled all outstanding claims, providing Nanya with access to certain memory-related Rambus innovations through the second quarter of 2018. Other terms of the agreement are confidential.

In the swarming SSD market, what better way to blast your way from obscurity to worldwide attention, than launching a ludicrously fast SSD? KingSpec unveiled the MC2J677M1T, a PCI-Express SSD that's tested to be capable of sequential speeds as high as 2.5 GB/s (gigabytes per second). Pictured below, the drive is an almost full-height add-on card with PCI-Express 2.0 x8 bus interface. The card seats a high performance SATA 6 Gb/s RAID controller by LSI (under that fan-heatsink), which is wired to eight mSATA 6 Gb/s ports, holding the eight sub-units.

The eight mSATA SSD sub-units on the MC2J677M1T each hold 120 GB of data (totaling 960 GB). Each sub-unit runs a JMicron-made controller, Intel-made MLC NAND flash, and Nanya-made DRAM cache. The LSI RAID controller is designed to be plug-and-play, i.e., the drive is bootable, and you won't need an F6 driver during Windows installation to detect the drive. A quick ATTO benchmark run by TheSSDReview, which has one of these drives, yielded sequential read speeds well past 2,500 MB/s.

On taking apart the Acer S7 Ultrabook, The SSD Review discovered a strange new SSD form-factor, which bears the label of Lite-On, and carrying the model number "CMT-256L3M." This is perhaps the first mSATA SSD with two independent SSD subunits, one on each side. The mSATA interface itself is modified to have two SSD ports. The drive registers on the system BIOS as two individual drives, which is then run as a 256 GB (physical) RAID 0 volume by the BIOS and operating-system.

Each of the CMT-256L3M's two subunits feature a Marvell 88S9175 controller, which supports SATA 6 Gb/s interface, two 64 GB dual-channel 24 nm toggle NAND flash memory chips by Toshiba, and a Nanya-made DRAM cache chip. Putting the drive through sequential-friendly benchmarks such as CrystalDiskMark shows a sequential read speed of the drive (combined with its two subunits) to be around 877 MB/s, with sequential writes up to 672 MB/s. Multi-subunit SSDs aren't new, most high-end consumer SSDs from the pre-TRIM, pre-SandForce era used to be dual- to quad-subunit drives. The CMT-256L3M is the first one in the super-compact mSATA form-factor, and its performance numbers could impress more Ultrabook designers.

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, as PC shipments are continually adjusted downwards and yearly growth has decreased by 5% YoY, demand for the peak season is not as strong as expected and the oversupply situation continues to worsen. As a result, contract price for 2 Gb chips fell by 22.5% in the third quarter, from US$1.11 in July to US$0.86 in September. Server and mobile DRAM are also showing falling price trends, resulting in an 8.5% drop in the value of the DRAM industry compared to the previous quarter; DRAM suppliers' revenues are falling across the board. However, looking at third quarter demand, with strong shipments for mobile devices like smartphones and tablet PCs, mobile DRAM accounted for 25% of total DRAM output, a significant increase from less than 20% in the second quarter. Consequently, market share is on the rise for memory makers with higher mobile DRAM ratios, like Samsung and Elpida. For the DRAM industry, improving core competitiveness lies in proper product adjustment, the key to profitability with such bleak market conditions.

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, given the persistent oversupply situation in the global DRAM market, along with the -5% YoY shipment growth for PCs, October contract prices have dropped below $16 USD, and are continuing to approach the $15 USD mark. The trends pose as yet another test to the cost structures of DRAM makers. With prices approaching or dropping below cash cost, manufacturers are faced with the option of either undergoing production cuts or shifting their focus towards non-DRAM products.

Other than ProMOS, which chose to quit the DRAM market due to financial woes, manufacturers like Elpida and Rexchip have taken the initiative to lower their output levels in August. Powerchip, beginning September, took a similar initiative by adjusting P3 wafer levels, whereas in the following month, Nanya and Inotera made the official announcement to implement 20% production cuts. For the South Korean DRAM manufacturers, whose cost structures appear to be superior to those of other competitors, no production cuts have been announced nor taken, although efforts to control output ratios have been intensified. At the same time that production of commodity DRAM is being lowered, an increasing amount of emphasis is being placed on the production of the more profitable mobile and server DRAMs.