The global economy has faced increased inflation risks and downstream inventory corrections in 2H22, which have affected IC design houses faster than wafer foundries, as they are far more sensitive and responsive to market reversals. TrendForce reports that adverse factors such as weak overall consumption, restrictions from China, and the slowdown of corporate IT spending and CSP demand have impacted the revenue performance of the world's top 10 IC design houses in 4Q22, leading to a QoQ decline of 9.2%, or approximately US$33.96 billion.

TrendForce predicts that the revenue of these top 10 companies keep declining—though with a slight convergence—into 1Q23, owing to ongoing inventory corrections across the entire supply chain as well as Q1 being the traditional off-season for consumer demand. Demand will continue to be weak despite new product launches and inventory replenishment in the supply chain.

TSMC today announced consolidated revenue of NT$508.63 billion, net income of NT$206.99 billion, and diluted earnings per share of NT$7.98 (US$1.31 per ADR unit) for the first quarter ended March 31, 2023. Year-over-year, first quarter revenue increased 3.6% while net income and diluted EPS both increased 2.1%. Compared to fourth quarter 2022, first quarter results represented an 18.7% decrease in revenue and a 30.0% decrease in net income. All figures were prepared in accordance with TIFRS on a consolidated basis.

In US dollars, first quarter revenue was $16.72 billion, which decreased 4.8% year-over-year and decreased 16.1% from the previous quarter. Gross margin for the quarter was 56.3%, operating margin was 45.5%, and net profit margin was 40.7%. In the first quarter, shipments of 5-nanometer accounted for 31% of total wafer revenue; 7-nanometer accounted for 20%. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and more advanced technologies, accounted for 51% of total wafer revenue.

TrendForce research reveals that global notebook shipments reached 33.9 million units in 1Q23—a 13% QoQ and 39% YoY decline. This drop is primarily attributed to the continued impact of economic headwinds on consumer market confidence, which has hindered notebook channels as they destock. As a result, notebook brands have reduced ODM orders in an attempt to regulate inventory pressure, with this pressure on notebooks and their components expecting to be eased in 2Q23 as channels increase demand MoM. TrendForce predicts this will drive 2Q23 notebook shipments to 37.63 million units, an 11% QoQ increase but a 17.7% YoY decline.

Business markets face pressure, demand for niche products gradually growing
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point, from 4.75% to 5%—the highest it's been since the eve of the 2007 financial crisis—in response to weak market demand and a continuous decline in corporate revenue. In the face of high financing and borrowing costs, businesses are strictly controlling financial expenditures, delaying procurement plans, and reducing manpower, all of which, impact the shipment volume of commercial models.

Genesis Market, an online-fraud-facilitation website and marketplace, has today been closed by an international joint effort coordinated by various police forces. Law enforcement agencies around the world took part in synchronized raids, including at locations in the UK and USA. 208 searches have been carried out, beginning at dawn on Tuesday 4 April, and a total of 119 suspected individuals have been arrested. This operation was spearheaded by the FBI in the US and the Dutch National Police. Consequently, users of the genesis.market website have been greeted with a boastful message and infographic on the home and login pages: "Operation Cookie Monster. This website has been seized."

Sophos, a leading software and hardware security vendor, has previously identified genesis.market as: "an invitation-only marketplace" from which buyers can acquire stolen credentials, cookies, and digital fingerprints that are gathered from compromised systems." According to the company's research, the illegal marketplace was also identified as an Initial Access Broker (IAB) - a business that compromises systems and services, steals data, and sells it. Genesis Market has special engagement capabilities in the field of illegally acquiring "credentials, cookies, and digital fingerprints". This stolen data was often sold on under individual lots, but the site also offered a longer term supply of data packages via a subscription service. This would offer the customer an up-to-date information trail, be it the tracking of an individual person or a collective.

Reports from supply chain partners suggests that Apple cut off production of their current generation M2 SoC lineup in the months of January and February following significantly decreased demand for Mac computers containing the chips. The details trace back to partners in Outsourced Semiconductor Package Test, or OSAT, which is many different companies in the supply chain that contribute to assembly and testing of the final packaged SoC. OSAT partners claim they received zero M2 wafers from TSMC during both months, and that shipments have only resumed at half of the previous capacity in the month of March. The breadth of this shutdown touched many different suppliers, from the packaging facilities in Korea, to the solder ball suppliers in Taiwan, the TIM suppliers in Germany, and die underfill material suppliers from Japan. Many of these parts can be specific to the type of chip being produced, as M2 features a different packaging method to Apple's normal A-Series mobile SoCs; a lack of M2 silicon led to a full shutdown of this supply chain. An industry insider for Amcona states, "It is impossible to do other packaging work on the M2 line, the so-called 'Apple line' installed in Amcona chip packs."

In their Q1 2023 earnings conference Apple reported a sharp revenue drop in Mac sales from $10.85B down to $7.74B. "The PC market is facing a very challenging situation," stated Tim Cook, Apple's CEO, "I think we have an advantage with silicon but it will be very difficult in the short term." Apple began production of M2 well over a year ago when demand for Apple silicon equipped MacBooks was still sky high, and likely had large reserves of finished chips and machines stockpiled for the launch of M2 Pro and M2 Max in January. With demand dipping up to the launch of the new MacBook models it would certainly justify slowing down production, but outright halting it for multiple months suggests demand far undershot Apple's expectation.

NVIDIA is stepping up to manufacturers of counterfeit graphics card in China according to an article published by MyDrivers - the hardware giant is partnering up with a number of the nation's major e-commerce companies in order to eliminate inventories of bogus GPUs. It is claimed that these online retail platforms, including JD.com and Douyin, are partway into removing a swathe of dodgy stock from their listings. NVIDIA is seeking to disassociate itself from the pool of unlicensed hardware and the brands responsible for flooding the domestic and foreign markets with so-called fake graphics cards. The company is reputed to be puzzled about the murky origins of this bootlegging of their patented designs.

The market became saturated with fake hardware during the Ethereum mining boom - little known cottage companies such as 51RSIC, Corn, Bingying and JieShuoMllse were pushing rebadged cheap OEM cards to domestic e-tail sites. The knock-off GPUs also crept outside of that sector, and import listings started to appear on international platforms including Ebay, AliExpress, Amazon and Newegg. NVIDIA is also fighting to stop the sale of refurbished cards - these are very likely to have been utilized in intensive cryptocurrency mining activities. A flood of these hit the market following an extreme downturn in crypto mining efforts, and many enthusiast communities have warned against acquiring pre-owned cards due to the high risk of component failure.

Semiconductor manufacturers worldwide are forecast to increase 300 mm fab capacity to an all-time high of 9.6 million wafers per month (wpm) in 2026, SEMI announced today in its 300 mm Fab Outlook to 2026 report. After strong growth in 2021 and 2022, the 300 mm capacity expansion is expected to slow this year due to soft demand for memory and logic devices.

"While the pace of the global 300 mm fab capacity expansion is moderating, the industry remains squarely focused on growing capacity to meet robust secular demand for semiconductors," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI President and CEO. "The foundry, memory and power sectors will be major drivers of the new record capacity increase expected in 2026."

Days following its TechPowerUp review where we noted its rather high $860 street price compared to several other custom-design RX 7900 XT graphics cards in the market, the Radeon RX 7900 XT Pulse by Sapphire, has seen a price correction. The card is now listed at $820 on American online retailer Newegg, with a -$20 coupon bringing it down to $800. At this price, the RX 7900 XT Pulse matches other cost-effective custom designs, such as the ASRock RX 7900 XT Phantom Gaming, and XFX RX 7900 XT Speedster Merc 310. Most premium custom-design RX 7900 XT cards have settled around the $850-mark. These include the ASRock RX 7900 XT Taichi, MSI RX 7900 XT Gaming Trio Classic, and the PowerColor RX 7900 XT Hellhound OC.

There are still a few cards that are either at the launch MSRP of $900 or beyond. These include the ASUS TUF Gaming RX 7900 XT OC, Sapphire RX 7900 XT NITRO+, and the PowerColor RX 7900 XT Red Devil OC. The ideal price for the RX 7900 XT is exactly where the market is driving it to (at or under $800), as it is under pressure from the RTX 4070 Ti. Some of the priciest RX 7900 XT cards comically overlap with the prices of the cheapest RX 7900 XTX.

On the heels of a weaker than expected 2022, International Data Corporation (IDC) has lowered its forecast for augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR) headsets in 2023. Global shipments are now expected to reach 10.1 million units this year, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Augmented and Virtual Reality Headset Tracker. Despite the revised outlook, total AR/VR headset shipments are expected to grow 14% in 2023 and accelerate over the 2023-2027 forecast period with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.6%.

Global fab equipment spending for front-end facilities is expected to decrease 22% year-over-year (YoY) to US$76 billion in 2023 from a record high of US$98 billion in 2022 before rising 21% YoY to US$92 billion in 2024 to reclaim lost ground, SEMI announced today in its latest quarterly World Fab Forecast report. The 2023 decline will stem from weakening chip demand and higher inventory of consumer and mobile devices.

Next year's fab equipment spending recovery will be driven in part by the end of the semiconductor inventory correction in 2023 and strengthening demand for semiconductors in the high-performance computing (HPC) and automotive segments. "This quarter's SEMI World Fab Forecast update offers our first look ahead to 2024, highlighting the steady global expansion of fab capacity to support future semiconductor industry growth driven by the automotive and computing segments and a host of emerging applications," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO. "The report points to a healthy 21% uptick in equipment investment next year."

TrendForce's latest investigations reveal that the global NAND Flash market has been facing a demand headwind since 2H22. In response, the supply chain has been scrambling to clear out inventory, driving down NAND Flash contract prices by 20-25%. Enterprise SSD took the brunt of the fall with prices plummeting 23-28%. Despite manufacturers lowering prices in an attempt to drive up demand, clients are hesitant to purchase more components for fear of overstock. As a result, NAND Flash bit shipments rose by a mere 5.3% as ASP fell 22.8%. Global NAND Flash revenue was reported to be US$10.29 billion in 4Q22—down 25% QoQ.

TrendForce reports that Kioxia and Micron saw both a reduction in production and price in 4Q22. Kioxia's revenue plunged 30.5% due to weak demand from PC and smartphone clients and data centers readjusting their inventory. Micron generated a quarterly revenue of US$1.1 billion—a staggering 34.7% QoQ drop—that has led them to drastically decrease their capacity utilization rate for fabs. Luckily, Micron was able to ship their 232-layer client SSDs in 4Q22 as scheduled, and with the 176-layer QLC enterprise SSD hot on its heels, Micron's bit shipments are predicted to steadily improve in 2023 with their revenue climbing gradually quarter by quarter.

According to TrendForce's latest survey of the global foundry market, electronics brands began adjusting their inventories in 2Q22, but foundries were unable to rapidly adapt to this development because they reside in the more upper portion of the supply chain. Moreover, revising procurement quantities of long-term foundry contracts takes time as well. Hence, only some tier-2 and -3 foundries were able to immediately respond to the changes in their clients' demand. Also, among them, 8-inch wafer foundries made a more pronounced reduction in their capacity utilization rates. As for the remaining foundries, the downward corrections that they made to their capacity utilization rates did not become noticeable until 4Q22. Hence, in 4Q22, the quarterly total revenue of the global top 10 foundries registered a QoQ decline for the first time after 13 consecutive quarters of positive growth. The quarterly total revenue of the top 10 foundries came to US$33,530 million, reflecting a drop of 4.7% from 3Q22. Moving into 1Q23, TrendForce projects that the quarterly total revenue of the top 10 will show an even steeper drop on account of seasonality and the uncertain macroeconomic situation.

According to TrendForce's latest survey of the server market, many cloud service providers (CSPs) have begun large-scale investments in the kinds of equipment that support artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. This development is in response to the emergence of new applications such as self-driving cars, artificial intelligence of things (AIoT), and edge computing since 2018. TrendForce estimates that in 2022, AI servers that are equipped with general-purpose GPUs (GPGPUs) accounted for almost 1% of annual global server shipments. Moving into 2023, shipments of AI servers are projected to grow by 8% YoY thanks to ChatBot and similar applications generating demand across AI-related fields. Furthermore, shipments of AI servers are forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 10.8% from 2022 to 2026.

Once upon a time, the data center market represented a duopoly of x86-64 makers AMD and Intel. However, in recent years companies started developing custom Arm-based processors to handle workloads as complex within smaller power envelopes and doing it more efficiently. According to Counterpoint Research firm, we have the latest data highlighting a significant new player called Ampere Computing in the data center world. With the latest data center revenue share report, we get to see Intel/AMD x86-64 and AWS/Ampere Arm CPU revenue. For the first time, we see that a 3rd party company, Ampere Computing, managed to capture as much as 1.54% market revenue share of the entire data center market in 2022. Thanks to having CPUs in off-the-shelf servers from OEMs, enterprises and cloud providers are able to easily integrate Ampere Altra processors.

Intel, still the most significant player, saw a 70.77% share of the overall revenue; however, that comes as a drop from 2021 data which stated an 80.71% revenue share in the data center market. This represents a 16% year-over-year decline. This reduction is not due to the low demand for server processors, as the global data center CPU market's revenue registered only a 4.4% YoY decline in 2022, but due to the high demand for AMD EPYC solutions, where team red managed to grab 19.84% of the revenue from 2022. This is a 62% YoY growth from last year's 11.74% revenue share. Slowly but surely, AMD is eating Intel's lunch. Another revenue source comes from Amazon Web Services (AWS), which the company filled with its Graviton CPU offerings based on Arm ISA. AWS Graviton CPUs accounted for 3.16% of the market revenue, up 74% from 1.82% in 2021.

The four major North American cloud service providers (CSPs) have made cuts to their server procurement quantities for this year because of economic headwinds and high inflation. Turning to server OEMs such as Dell and HPE, they are observed to have scaled back the production of server motherboards at their ODM partners. Given these developments, TrendForce now projects that global server shipments will grow by just 1.31% YoY to 14.43 million units for 2023. This latest figure is a downward correction from the earlier estimation. The revisions that server OEMs have made to their outlooks on shipments shows that the demand for end products has become much weaker than expected. They also highlight factors such as buyers of enterprise servers imposing a stricter control of their budgets and server OEMs' inventory corrections.

Jon Peddie Research reports that the growth of the global PC-based graphics processor unit (GPU) market reached 64.2 million units in Q4'22 and PC CPU shipments decreased by -35% year over year. Overall, GPUs will have a compound annual growth rate of 0.19% during 2022-2026 and reach an installed base of 3,013 million units at the end of the forecast period. Over the next five years, the penetration of discrete GPUs (dGPUs) in PCs will grow to reach a level of 32%.

Year to year, total GPU shipments, which include all platforms and all types of GPUs, decreased by -38%, desktop graphics decreased by -24%, and notebooks decreased by -43%—the largest decrease since its peak in 2011. AMD's overall market share percentage from last quarter increased 0.4%, Intel's market share decreased by -1.1%, and Nvidia's market share increased 0.68%, as indicated in the following chart.

AMD and Arm have been gaining up on Intel in the server CPU market in the past few years, and the margins of the share that AMD had won over were especially large in 2022 as datacenter operators and server brands began finding that solutions from the number-2 maker growing superior to those of the long-time leader, according to Frank Kung, DIGITIMES Research analyst focusing primarily on the server industry, who anticipates that AMD's share will well stand above 20% in 2023, while Arm will get 8%.

Prices are one of the three major drivers that resulted in datacenter operators and server brands switching to AMD. Comparing server CPUs from AMD and Intel with similar numbers of cores, clockspeed, and hardware specifications, the price tags of most of the former's products are at least 30% cheaper than the latter's, and the differences could go as high as over 40%, Kung said.

Mindfactory.de is hardly the largest tech retailer out there, but it's renowned for putting out its sales figures in public that provide sharp market insights. The latest of these concerns graphics card average selling price (ASP). The store notes that graphics card ASPs have doubled in a span of just 3 years, which marks an unnatural deviation from inflation, and cannot adequately be explained by rising chip costs due to Moore's Law either buckling or losing relevance. While Intel is a firm believer in Moore's Law, and to a smaller extent so is AMD (which disaggregated its CPUs and GPUs to continue shipping cutting-edge products at lower costs); NVIDIA considers Moore's Law dead, and thinks it needs to keep bigger and bigger GPUs to offer generational performance uplifts.

The store notes that as on February 2020, the AMD Radeon graphics card ASP stood at 295.25€, with the store having made 442,870€ in sales. For NVIDIA GeForce graphics cards, the ASP figure stood at 426.59€, and total sales at 855,305€. As of Feb 2020, AMD lacked high-end products (this was before the RDNA2 comeback), and so the NVIDIA ASP is higher. Fast forward to February 2023, and we see a doubling in the ASPs. For AMD Radeon graphics cards, this stands at 600.03€, with €1.02 million in sales; and for NVIDIA GeForce, the ASP is at 825.20€, with €1.84 million in sales.

It appears things are tougher at Micron than expected, as according to Boise State Public Radio, the company is looking at cutting an additional five percent of its workforce. Back in December, Micron announced it was planning to lay off around 10 percent of its global workforce, which at the time sat at around 49,000 employees, but it appears that cut wasn't enough, as company spokesman Tate Tran has confirmed the total headcount reduction is expected to around 15 percent, although that is for the entire year of 2023. This suggests that there might be several stages of layoffs, unless things improve and demand for Micron's products pick up.

The company is also lowering its capex, not just for 2023, but also for 2024, although the company is expecting more on building new fabs. Micron has already reduced its wafer starts, for both DRAM and NAND flash by around 20 percent. This is all taking place while the company is slowing down its tech node transitions and as such, its 1-gamma note will be moved to 2025. This means that Micron will be stuck at 232-layer 3D TLC NAND for longer than initially planned, which could lead to Micron losing market to its competitors, specifically SK Hynix and Samsung in this case, while allowing other competitors to catch up. Micron will reports is financial Q2 '23 results at the end of March, with previous quarters results indicating that Micron is expecting a drop in revenue of up to US$300 million compared to the previous quarter.

GlobalFoundries Inc. (GF) (Nasdaq: GFS) today announced preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2022.

Key Fourth Quarter Financial Highlights
Revenue of $2,101 million, up 14% year-over-year.
Gross margin of 29.6% and adjusted gross margin of 30.1%.
Net income of $668 million.
Adjusted EBITDA of $821 million.
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $3,346 million.

The global PC market has been experiencing a demand downtrend after the cooling down of COVID-19 in 2022. The market saw its shipments decline 15% YoY in 2022 and is expected to see another high single-digit decline in 2023, according to Counterpoint Research's data. However, among all the PC sub-sectors, Arm-based laptops are expected to show a comparatively resilient demand throughout the coming quarters thanks to Apple's success with the MacBook series, increasing ecosystem support and vanishing performance gap with x86 offerings.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today announced global semiconductor industry sales totaled $573.5 billion in 2022, the highest-ever annual total and an increase of 3.2% compared to the 2021 total of $555.9 billion. Sales slowed during the second half of the year, however. Fourth-quarter sales of $130.2 billion were 14.7% less than the total from the fourth quarter of 2021 and 7.7% lower than the total from third quarter of 2022. And global sales for the month of December 2022 were $43.4 billion, a decrease of 4.4% compared to November 2022 total. Monthly sales are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average. SIA represents 99% of the U.S. semiconductor industry by revenue and nearly two-thirds of non-U.S. chip firms.

"The global semiconductor market experienced significant ups and downs in 2022, with record-high sales early in the year followed by a cyclical downturn taking hold later in the year," said John Neuffer, SIA president and CEO. "Despite short-term fluctuations in sales due to market cyclicality and macroeconomic conditions, the long-term outlook for the semiconductor market remains incredibly strong, due to the ever-increasing role of chips in making the world smarter, more efficient, and better connected."

Samsung Electronics today reported financial results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year 2022. The Company posted KRW 70.46 trillion in consolidated revenue and KRW 4.31 trillion in operating profit in the quarter ended December 31, 2022. For the full year, it reported 302.23 trillion in annual revenue, a record high and KRW 43.38 trillion in operating profit.

The business environment deteriorated significantly in the fourth quarter due to weak demand amid a global economic slowdown. Earnings at the Memory Business decreased sharply as prices fell and customers continued to adjust inventory. The System LSI Business also saw a decline in earnings as sales of key products were weighed down by inventory adjustments in the industry. The Foundry Business posted a new record for quarterly revenue while profit increased year-on-year on the back of advanced node capacity expansion as well as customer base and application area diversification.

Yesterday, Intel reported that the company experienced one of the most challenging quarters and year overall revenue results, which led the company's share price to plummet and erase almost 10 billion dollars from its market cap. Amid the economic downtrend, the company is preparing to axe unnecessary developments and research costs that it would get in low-margin markets. Today, this has been reflected in the company's network switch business and the RISC-V pathfinder program. In 2019, the company acquired Barefoot Networks, which ended up in a line of Tofino series of standalone network switches. Apparently, this has been a low-margin or unprofitable business for Intel. "NEX continues to do well and is a core part of our strategic transformation, but we will end future investments in our network switching product line, while still fully supporting existing products and customers," noted Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, adding, "Since my return, we have exited seven businesses, providing in excess of $1.5 billion in savings". Intel NICs are not affected, and the company's investments in other networking businesses continue.

Additionally, the company is also doing a shutdown of its RISC-V Pathfinder program. Thanks to Yusuke Ohara, who questioned Intel's Pathfinder for RISC-V program support, we have information that the company is discontinuing the program "effective immediately." The support also advises that Intel will not provide additional advancements or bug fixes, so everyone should consult 3rd parties for any software and development.

TrendForce's latest analysis of the DRAM market finds that the inventory pressure on suppliers remain significant due to the persistently weak demand for consumer electronics. Among the top three DRAM suppliers, only Samsung has seen a slight drop in inventory level thanks to its highly competitive pricing strategy. To prevent DRAM prices as a whole from making another sharp dive, a few suppliers such as Micron have been cutting production. Therefore, the QoQ decline in DRAM prices are projected to shrink to around 13~18% for 1Q23. However, the slump will have yet to reach the bottom at that time. Regarding the QoQ changes in the prices of the major categories of DRAM products for 1Q23, PC DRAM and server DRAM are projected to again register a drop that is near 20%. Conversely, mobile DRAM will experience the smallest price decline because its profit margin is ready the thinnest.