Editorial AMD Chip Manufacturing to Lay Solely With TSMC On, After 7 nm - And Why It's not a Decision, but a Necessity

[R0H1T]

32-core Threadripper has 19.2 billion transistors, more than GT102 (18.9 billion), and a 64-core EPYC is coming which is sold by the pallet to power datacenters and super computers.

I didn't realize next gen EPYC is gonna be even more EPIC, I might be wrong but the singular chiplet(?) could feature 45~50 billion transistors in a single package, assuming AMD do more with Zen2 than they did with Zen+ & it'll dwarf other monolithic monstrosities from IBM & Oracle.

 

[StrayKAT]

No room for SJWs. The stupid have to go.

Do you know who the only reliable/competent people are in my life are? Fast food workers and delivery drivers. Do you know what that means? Anything that requires more intelligence is impossible to achieve among that vast majority of the population. Idiots have bred us down to Idiocracy levels already. I literally have to do everything myself or I get screwed on time, money or both. Before long I'll have to purchase larger and larger machines to fabricate everything.

You would assume there's at least one field I could rely on like medical, right? Nope. I have to diagnose my family, too, because even after a year of specialists and testing they can't figure out what I can in 15 mins of googling. People are worthless. Fix everyone unless they can prove their worth to breed.

I don't think it's that people are stupid. Maybe those who disappoint simply stopped caring.

That said, I don't necessarily agree. I even got awesome tech support from an overseas Indian guy recently (you'd think that'd be annoying, but he went above and beyond).

 

[notb]

With no more GloFo, AMD will be TSMC's #1 customer

This assumption is based on...?
On the graph you'e shown they're behind Nvidia and it's 2014. A lot has changed since then.

On another note but related, what happens after 7nm fab? my guess is probably one more shrink then it's.... hello, quantum computers!

After 7nm it's 5nm. then 3 nm (sometimes called 3.5 nm).
3nm test chips are already out.

Other than that... 5/7 nm mark the end of silicon in mainstream CPUs. We'll have to move to other materials.
For example: GaN not only makes 3nm doable, but also tolerates higher temperatures.
High quality Si processors stop working at 250*C or something like that. GaN is still fine at 500*C. We could see consumer CPUs hitting 7GHz etc.

Quantum computers are not coming to PCs.

 

[R-T-B]

Fix everyone unless they can prove their worth to breed.

Wow. Based on this comment, I'm going to file your future comments into /dev/null. I mean you pretty much just put yourself on your own theoretical list.

Good day.

 

[eidairaman1]

Maybe it is time for AMD to buy back it foundary form GlobalFoundaries.

Or refer to IBM or Samsung

I just wonder if and how long it will be before research on new nodes is completely dead. The digital age may be reaching its peak.

Nope, glofo just sucks

 

[Vya Domus]

Finally they'll have the best nodes at their disposal. Although I fear TSMC is going to remain the only player in the game and stagnation will ensue.

 

[medi01]

What about Samsung, doesn't it have reasonably mature 7nm?

I'm mostly concerned about TSMC not feeling any need to push forward faster, as Intel, well, is exclusive to Intel anyhow.

Having own foundary means having own house. Having own foundary you don't have to look weather it is making profit or not, your product will make profit for it.

You are making that statement at the time when even Intel with it's market dominance and omg margins is struggling with new processes.

B2B chip business has many advantages.

This assumption is based on...?
On the graph you'e shown they're behind Nvidia and it's 2014. A lot has changed since then.

Uh, remind us, how many console chips, CPU chips are out there.

Going fanboibuthurt about such a meaningless metric is insane...

 

[notb]

Going fanboibuthurt about such a meaningless metric is insane...

It won't be meaningless if it turns out Nvidia can pay TSMC a lot more for the same job.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

This assumption is based on...?

CPU sales are at least 5:1 to GPU sales. Intel dwarfs NVIDIA for a reason. Back when AMD acquired ATI, it was 800% bigger.

It won't be meaningless if it turns out Nvidia can pay TSMC a lot more for the same job.

And risk losing AMD's, Qualcomm's, and Broadcom's business? Pretty sure NVIDIA would get the boot before the remaining 90%+ do but, let's be honest, TSMC isn't going to drive any of them away because more business is good for their bottom line.

 

[medi01]

if it turns out Nvidia can pay TSMC a lot more for the same job

Looking at milking customers rampage, we know for sure, nVidia CAN pay more, but that doesn't mean it actually would.

 

[notb]

CPU sales are at least 5:1 to GPU sales. Intel dwarfs NVIDIA for a reason. Back when AMD acquired ATI, it was 800% bigger.

I'm pretty sure the ratio is much higher than 5.

I still don't understand what will make AMD the leading customer. NVidia has not only grown since 2014 (in revenue, not in quantity), but they're also making a lot more things than just GPUs.
Don't underestimate the automotive business they have. Soon it will overtake pro graphics in revenue and may even approach what Nvidia makes from datacenters.

And risk losing AMD's, Qualcomm's, and Broadcom's business? Pretty sure NVIDIA would get the boot before the remaining 90%+ do but, let's be honest, TSMC isn't going to drive any of them away because more business is good for their bottom line.

NVidia vs AMD is not about getting "more business". It's a limited demand market. Either Greens or Reds sell a GPU. TSMC manufacturers for both, so what's stopping them from giving a priority to the company paying more? And NVidia has higher margins to share.

BTW: I don't understand why Qualcomm and Broadcom appeared here. Care to explain?

Looking at milking customers rampage, we know for sure, nVidia CAN pay more, but that doesn't mean it actually would.

But wouldn't they pay more to basically control AMD's access to 7nm?

 

[FordGT90Concept]

BTW: I don't understand why Qualcomm and Broadcom appeared here. Care to explain?

Look at the graph again and it's abundantly obvious why Qualcomm and Broadcom were mentioned: Qualcomm by itself bought more wafers than NVIDIA and AMD combined. TSMC makes the lion's share of smartphone processors out there. Soon, they could be making the lion's share of CPUs too if AMD keeps growing as it has been and they can keep up.

 

[efikkan]

TSMC makes the lion's share of smartphone processors out there. Soon, they could be making the lion's share of CPUs too if AMD keeps growing as it has been.

Don't forget that the node versions used for low power chips are not the same as the ones used for desktop CPUs and GPUs. Any production lines designed to handle AMD's growth would have to be planned years in advance.

 

[Captain_Tom]

Well written article.

People also need to understand that Samsung exists, and will make 7nm products eventually. Additionally GF is ramping up 12nm (non-Finfet) that has almost the same efficiency as TSMC's 7nm. That will be perfect for cheaper APU's and GPU's.

I'm pretty sure the ratio is much higher than 5.

I still don't understand what will make AMD the leading customer. NVidia has not only grown since 2014 (in revenue, not in quantity), but they're also making a lot more things than just GPUs.
Don't underestimate the automotive business they have. Soon it will overtake pro graphics in revenue and may even approach what Nvidia makes from datacenters.

NVidia vs AMD is not about getting "more business". It's a limited demand market. Either Greens or Reds sell a GPU. TSMC manufacturers for both, so what's stopping them from giving a priority to the company paying more? And NVidia has higher margins to share.

BTW: I don't understand why Qualcomm and Broadcom appeared here. Care to explain?


But wouldn't they pay more to basically control AMD's access to 7nm?

How much more? Nvidia's gpu's are small fish compared to EPYC server contracts.

 

[Prince Valiant]

I'm pretty sure the ratio is much higher than 5.

I still don't understand what will make AMD the leading customer. NVidia has not only grown since 2014 (in revenue, not in quantity), but they're also making a lot more things than just GPUs.
Don't underestimate the automotive business they have. Soon it will overtake pro graphics in revenue and may even approach what Nvidia makes from datacenters.

NVidia vs AMD is not about getting "more business". It's a limited demand market. Either Greens or Reds sell a GPU. TSMC manufacturers for both, so what's stopping them from giving a priority to the company paying more? And NVidia has higher margins to share.

BTW: I don't understand why Qualcomm and Broadcom appeared here. Care to explain?


But wouldn't they pay more to basically control AMD's access to 7nm?

Not killing off one of, as you pointed out, the very few customers for advanced nodes like this in the interest of short term profit?

 

[efikkan]

I do wonder how much of this is GF giving up and how much of this is AMD not willing to commit to the investments needed to pull this across the finish line.
Even though this does impact the prognosis of volume shipments of 7nm parts, we still have to remember that in best case GF was still ~3Q behind TSMC, and would have produced chips with quad patterning on DUV. Maybe those extra wavers at GF wouldn't have been worth the cost for either party? "7nm" is not going to be a cakewalk for any of these foundries, and it would probably take significantly more investments to push it to EUV or other means which could eventually make volume production sustainable.

 

[RichF]

Do you know who the only reliable/competent people are in my life are? Fast food workers and delivery drivers. Do you know what that means? Anything that requires more intelligence is impossible to achieve among that vast majority of the population.

1) First of all, almost every time I order a custom sandwich at places like Wendy's, it comes back wrong. Ask for no cheese, get cheese. The last time I got burgers they weren't even fully cooked.

2) The reason people in low-skill low-pay jobs are paid poorly and treated poorly is, more than all other factors, because they are not as intelligent as those who demand better employment and thus seek it out. That does not mean there aren't highly-intelligent people doing those jobs. Of course there are. They are not, though, the dominant statistic. Odd circumstances can and do put talented people in menial jobs. We don't have much of a meritocracy, particularly when it comes to pay distribution. However, the idea that low-skill low-pay employment represents the best humanity can do, in terms of matching the human intelligence level with the work is utter nonsense. Just looking at what has been in fields like chip design and space observation blows your opining out of the water.

I have personal experience in these matters. I have a high IQ and very high ambitions and yet I have worked at many menial jobs in my life because of unfortunate circumstances, like having been born into poverty. I have many files full of IP that will never make it to market, wasted contributions. It is extremely difficult to rise socially right now. We live in a country where it is openly mocked as fantasy, for instance, for people to be able to go to college without being plunged into massive debt — even though a college degree is not even a guarantee of suitable employment anymore for intelligent people. The idea of investing in our cultural intelligence (and thus competitiveness) is openly mocked here. In Austria, by contrast, college students think it's insane that we make college students go into heavy debt to get an education. This, though, is racism (because "those people" never deserve what "my people" deserve) and class warfare (class = race, basically — regardless of the optics). Barriers are put into place to prevent competition between the more elite families and the masses. Tokenism is used, like lotteries, to give people the illusion of an open fair playing field. It's not. Not even close. However, there still is the fact that the average IQ isn't so special and there are a lot of people with that and with IQs below it.

It's unfortunate that eugenics policy is nearly always advocated by people who are foolish. They don't advocate for its benefits and instead advocate for it based on its drawbacks, drawbacks that can be sidestepped a lot with attention. For instance, you have to start with the realization that IQ is not monolithic. So, you have to be able to value a lot of different aspects of human intelligence. That includes the arts. It includes the humanities. It includes empathy. It includes unpopular innovations, not just the consensuses of the status quo intelligentsia. Sociopathic narcissistic self-enrichment (the current model of the ideal person in a culture that is based on the concept of net worth, one where billionaire worship is right out in the open and people conflate organized charity with altruism) is definitely not the height of human intelligence. Yet, it is what is rewarded. The goal is to cheat the system as much as possible and get away with it as much as possible. Unfortunately, that kind of mentality ranks below the top tier(s) of human capability. Eugenics should not be about punishing people. It should not be about hate, bigotry, and other kinds of narcissistic insecure gloating. It should be about providing incentives to high IQ people to breed more. Some may argue that that's the same as providing disincentives for the rest but there are massive differences if this dichotomy is implemented humanely/efficiently. One common mistake, for instance, is to believe that efficiency is inhumane. The human definition of efficiency is humanness. It encompasses all aspects of humanity. So, it is not merely about enabling certain fortunate people (high IQ individuals) to exploit everyone else. On the contrary. The goal is for everyone to be able to contribute and to benefit. That's the basis of civilization itself: specialization and reciprocity. It's unfortunate that our current dominant civilization models are Machiavellian perversions.

Perhaps ironically, our best hope for rational policy is a takeover by AI.

No one seems to think about this, based on all the reading on this topic I've done, but a major concern seems to be that TSMC can now charge more.

People express concern about capacity but what about monopolist price increases. Less competition + increased demand = the ability to increase prices.

This could push more cost onto the consumer, contrary to the idea that GF's closure will save us money.

 

[StrayKAT]

Wendy's is like my favorite fast food (not that I go a lot, but if I'm in the mood for a hamburger, I prefer them). But I've never been disappointed in their service.

I think it might depend where you're at. Here, Southern Hospitality still exists.. maybe that has something to do with it? Just a wild guess. I know that in Asia, many take service seriously too. Sometimes to crazy levels (Japan).

 

[mtcn77]

No room for SJWs. The stupid have to go.

Do you know who the only reliable/competent people are in my life are? Fast food workers and delivery drivers.

You would assume there's at least one field I could rely on like medical, right? Nope. I have to diagnose my family, too, because even after a year of specialists and testing they can't figure out what I can in 15 mins of googling. People are worthless. Fix everyone unless they can prove their worth to breed.

That is why men of the mind are quitting. Because it takes absolutely zero skill for them to be sidelined by a zero-summer. However, the field is still very valid - except for being in the wrong hands...

 

[StrayKAT]

I can't speak too much about medical. I go to military hospitals. One of the top ones in the world, in fact (where injured vets get shipped from around the globe). No complaints here.

 

[RichF]

That is why men of the mind are quitting. Because it takes absolutely zero skill for them to be sidelined by a zero-summer. However, the field is still very valid -except for being in the wrong hands...

Randoid fantasies predate Ayn Rand. Every generation moans and groans about how the best and brightest have disappeared/been sidelined by inferior folk. In reality, the banning of lead products like gasoline and paint has improved IQ and behavior. Lead has been an extremely long-standing brain drain on humanity. For example, the Roman empire's massive problems, often nebulously attributed to "decadence" were, in large part, due to the effects of lead poisoning. We're not out of the woods with lead poisoning by any means. It still strongly affects inner-city folk, due to dust from demolition and old housing. It is a persistent pollutant in soil that goes into crops like grapes in the US. China, India, and others still mismanage it (polluting soil and food via the soil). The other reality is that corruption is neither new nor stamped with an expiration date (aside, perhaps from the aforementioned takeover by rational AI).

 

[StrayKAT]

The other reality is that corruption is neither new nor stamped with an expiration date (aside, perhaps from the aforementioned takeover by rational AI).

Definitely not new.. but I think once people put their feet in the water and realize they can get away with it, it becomes habitual. The problem is when norms change. And each little dip in the water stacks up.. until society finally realizes it's not water at all, and they're knee deep in shit. The more lawfulness (and a healthy dose of respect/fear of law) a society promotes, the better it will remain. I think every once in awhile, a "revival" of this happens, but it slowly corrodes. You have to be vigilant.

This is how society has gotten used to cheap and/or slave labor again, for example. People talk about these things as if they were of the past, but they are happening under our noses. Outright human trafficking as well. And this is one just one aberration. Current society is full of things that it gives a slide too, which it used to forbid.

I don't think destroying everything is the solution though. lol

 

[RichF]

I'm glad you brought up the slave labor thing because I had meant to comment on that. Netflix has a documentary out about garlic that appears to have video evidence of Chinese prisons using forced labor for the peeling of garlic for the American market. Many of the peelers use their teeth because their nails have fallen out from the work. According to the documentary, the biggest American garlic firm (the one buying the slave-made products) set up a fake oversight group designed to hit their competitors with tariffs, too. ALEC has been a proponent of things like 3 Strikes to get more people in the US imprisoned and appears to have its sights set on expanding prison labor here, because it offers lower shipping costs when compared with getting slave-produced materials from abroad. It's also useful for "law and order" marketing. I wonder if such products will also benefit from "product of USA" marketing. In that garlic documentary, the courts and agencies don't come out looking so good, either. Rather than being rational (oversight as a basic fundamental of doing business), the claim was made that officials don't have jurisdiction. Instead, we're supposed to believe a fake group set up by a corporation is enough.

 

[mtcn77]

Randoid fantasies predate Ayn Rand. Every generation moans and groans about how the best and brightest have disappeared/been sidelined by inferior folk.

Whataboutism and fair-world fantasies are just the kind of manipulations that altruism fans like to pass on the individual, though. No freebies, tyvm.

 

[notb]

Additionally GF is ramping up 12nm (non-Finfet) that has almost the same efficiency as TSMC's 7nm.

What efficiency? What? What?! :-D

How much more? Nvidia's gpu's are small fish compared to EPYC server contracts.

Again: what?!
Server CPU market is worth around $18bln yearly. AMD expects to get maybe 10% of that in next few years, so around $2bln.
Nvidia's revenue for 2017 was $10bln.

Not killing off one of, as you pointed out, the very few customers for advanced nodes like this in the interest of short term profit?

Short term - surely not. Seriously, the demand for GPUs is the same - no matter how many companies make them. If TSMC becomes a monopolist for GPU chips, they can choose who to work with. NVidia has higher margins, so it's likely they'd be paying more for chips. So in short-term going 100% NVidia would make sense.

Long-term is different, because of diversification. It's better to have more clients that make different products. This is a reason why staying with AMD makes sense... unless TSMC is already negotiating with Intel.