Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[lexluthermiester]

You do realize that nCoV also has the knock on effect of overwhelming the healthcare system, besides leading to secondary diseases like pneumonia?

Flu does the same thing. Your point?

Hell, this year alone FLU is more deadly;

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

Keep in mind, these numbers and the numbers above are ONLY for the US. Let that sink in.

They don't know that yet. Here in my country they have 1700+ cases tested and 42 killed. that is 2.5% which is much more than the "normal" flu. Only there are so many more people who have not been tested because of mild symptoms, the estimate here is around 12,000+ and then you suddenly come to 0.3% which is comparable to the flu.

Exactly. And everywhere in the world is following the same methodology. Those with mild symptoms will recover as their immune system can adapt and handle the virus.

Something else that should be noted, observation is showing that people with COVID19 are not staying contagious. Once their immune system adapts, they are non-contagious 24 to 36 hours later.

 

[R0H1T]

I'm giving you a conservative estimate, the 100 million doesn't even come close to the absolute worst case scenario especially if this thing mutates quickly. You can easily calculate how bad it can get when the number of cases are doubling 2-5 days in different places around the world.

As for the Flu, you do realize it's treatable in most cases don't you? Why are you drawing a false equivalence with nCoV

Exactly. And everywhere in the world is following the same methodology. Those with mild symptoms will recover as their immune system can adapt and handle the virus.

Something else that should be noted, observation is showing that people with COVID19 are not staying contagious. Once their immune system adapts, they are non-contagious 24 to 36 hours later.

I've already accounted for the vast under-reporting, otherwise if you see only confirmed cases the mortality rate is at least 20x higher than influenza.

COVID Live Update: 170,691,288 Cases and 3,550,115 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

There's no solid evidence as yet that once infected you'll not get the disease a second time, there's nothing confirming this theory.

 

[lexluthermiester]

I'm giving you a conservative estimate

Thanks for the input. I think we should all look at the real world numbers instead of taking the word of some random internet user.

the 100 million doesn't even come close to the absolute worst case scenario especially if this thing mutates quickly.

There is no evidence that there has been any mutation at all, or indications that such is likely.

You can easily calculate how bad it can get when the number of cases are doubling 2-5 days in different places around the world.

Yes and then when we compare that data to worldwide FLU data and the bigger picture comes clearly into focus.

Why are you drawing a false equivalence with nCoV

I'm not the one failing to see what is obvious.

I've already accounted for the vast under-reporting, otherwise if you see only confirmed cases the mortality rate is at least 20x higher than influenza.

COVID Live Update: 170,691,288 Cases and 3,550,115 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

That is not a credible source of data. Please cite a source of data that has credibility.

There's no solid evidence as yet that once infected you'll not get the disease a second time, there's nothing confirming this theory.

The same can be same of the FLU. You seem to be trolling. Please stop.

The whole point of this thread and the information provided within is to help people understand the reality of this "threat". The raw numbers and real world data are all that is needed to understand.

 

[R0H1T]

I think we should all look at the real world numbers instead of taking the word of some random internet user.

The numbers are right there in front of you, no need to take the word of any stranger.

There is no evidence that there has been any mutation at all, or indications that such is likely.

It doesn't need a mutation to infect over 100 million, it's doing a swell job as it is. Again the R0 is about 3, which as experts have said is roughly 2x as contagious as influenza!

Yes and then when we compare that data to worldwide FLU data and the bigger picture comes clearly into focus.

Didn't realize the FLU could infect up to 70% of the world population in a relatively short span. Yes that's what the numbers Canada & Germany have put up for their (nationwide) infections, you sure they aren't cuckoo too?

I'm not the one failing to see what is obvious.

Which is? I'm dying to know what you're implying

That is not a credible source of data. Please cite a source of data that has credibility.

Does MS sound credible to you? No then I guess you'll have to find a more "credible source" yourself

Microsoft Bing COVID-19 Tracker

Track confirmed cases of COVID-19 around the globe with Bing

www.bing.com

The same can be same of the FLU. You seem to be trolling. Please stop.

Oh so you conveniently skipped over the part that Flu can be treated as of now, how naive of me to think you were being objective!

 

[1freedude]

I'm so done with this. Please God take me

Sorry brother, stick with it. I'm in Redmond if you wanna stop by for a Red Chair, or a chat.
Speaking of Redmond, we are a major spoke off of Sea-Tac, PDX, and SFO. LAX is there too, but not nearly as much as the others mentioned. Right now, we have about 10% of the total infections for Oregon, with 6.

I am really suprised our totals are not higher. Maybe because of "light symptoms," folks aren't going to the hospital to get checked out. In reality, that is good, because the only real problem we (humanity) are going to face is a shortage of hospital facilities capable of keeping people alive long enough to get over it. That brings me to the next point...if we keep up a disciplined social distancing practice, we will be able let the really sick folks trickle in over a few months, instead of blasting the system in a few weeks.

I wish I could stop by TPU a bit more often. You guys were my first online community. Thanks for being here

And please, if you need to call for help, because of things outside of your control, someone will be there. You don't have to be sick to need help.

 

[the54thvoid]

Going to put this here and extract a few quotes. This source is the European Centre for Disease Control.

Questions and answers on COVID-19

Find more information on questions related to COVID-19 on infection, symptoms, guidelines, the situation, in the EU, vaccines, travel, and children.

www.ecdc.europa.eu

Take aways:

1 - it's not the flu.

While the viruses that cause both COVID-19 and seasonal influenza are transmitted from person-to-person and may cause similar symptoms, the two viruses are very different and do not behave in the same way. ECDC estimates that between 15 000 and 75 000 people die prematurely due to causes associated with seasonal influenza each year in the EU, the UK, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. This is approximately 1 in every 1 000 people who are infected. By comparison, the current estimated mortality rate for COVID-19 is 20-30 per 1 000 people.

2 - it has a higher mortality rate.

Preliminary findings indicate that the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 20-30 per thousand people diagnosed. This is significantly less than the 2003 SARS outbreak. However, it is much higher than the mortality rate for seasonal influenza.

3 - As humans have no immunity built up for it, it has the potential to infect every human on the planet.

 

[Ahhzz]

....

Something else that should be noted, observation is showing that people with COVID19 are not staying contagious. Once their immune system adapts, they are non-contagious 24 to 36 hours later.

Just a quick note here, Lex: There's already been more than one confirmed cases of re-infection.

...
Oh so you conveniently skipped over the part that Flu can be treated as of now, how naive of me to think you were being objective!

The treatment for COVID19 is basically the same as for the flu, which is rest, plenty of fluids and isolation from others. Just like the flu, serious cases can result in serious complications, but it appears that the complications for the ones more vulnerable to respiratory illnesses can be much more severe.

There's a Reddit AMA with 4 Swiss scientists here that had tons of information. I recommend those serious about their concerns (or lack thereof) check out the AMA. thanks, and keep it civil please.

 

[r.h.p]

Here is an info-graphic of contact tracing for all Covid 19 infection people in my place here in Singapore. Quite an impressive feat of police work here.

COVID-19 cases in Singapore

From imported cases and clusters in churches, to the Jurong SAFRA cluster, here's how the novel coronavirus cases in Singapore are linked.

infographics.channelnewsasia.com

geezuz that is a impressive stats sheet

 

[lexluthermiester]

1 - it's not the flu.

I never said it was. I'm using the flu as an example because of how similar the symptoms are.

2 - it has a higher mortality rate.

Evidence? So far the CONFIRMED numbers on offer do not fully support that statement.

3 - As humans have no immunity built up for it, it has the potential to infect every human on the planet.

And how is that any different from new strains of the common cold or flu? The human immune system has evolved to be very adaptable. Greatly more people are recovering than dying.

Just a quick note here, Lex: There's already been more than one confirmed cases of re-infection.

Ok. I never said that wasn't possible, didn't even imply it. In fact I said...

The same can be same of the FLU.

...because everyone has had or will have the flu more than once. So not only are secondary cases of COVID19 very possible, such is entirely likely. That doesn't make it anymore or less serious than a cold or the flu.

My point is that all of the panic, over-reactions and doomsaying is very much-ado-about-nothing. Something new has popped up. It happens, it's always happened and it's always going to happen. The big difference between now and decades/centuries past is simple; Medical knowledge and technology. The social panic and the unrest being displayed by supposedly civilized people is unwarranted. Factual information and reasonable perspective are all that is needed to realize that this too shall pass as it always has and always will.

 

[Zyll Goliat]

Evidence? So far the CONFIRMED numbers on offer do not fully support that statement.

Well...We can not be sure just yet but when I saw how many of those basketball players have Covid-19 without any symptoms it does make you wonder what is actual number of infected people I was always under impression that is probably around 10x more then what we know and even with those numbers I believe that death rate was still way higher than common flu but there is a possibility that the number of "infected"people is even much higher then those predictions.....

 

[the54thvoid]

I never said it was. I'm using the flu as an example because of how similar the symptoms are.

Evidence? So far the CONFIRMED numbers on offer do not fully support that statement.

And how is that any different from new strains of the common cold or flu? The human immune system has evolved to be very adaptable. Greatly more people are recovering than dying.

Ok. I never said that wasn't possible, didn't even imply it. In fact I said...

...because everyone has had or will have the flu more than once. So not only are secondary cases of COVID19 very possible, such is entirely likely. That doesn't make it anymore or less serious than a cold or the flu.

My point is that all of the panic, over-reactions and doomsaying is very much-ado-about-nothing. Something new has popped up. It happens, it's always happened and it's always going to happen. The big difference between now and decades/centuries past is simple; Medical knowledge and technology. The social panic and the unrest being displayed by supposedly civilized people is unwarranted. Factual information and reasonable perspective are all that is needed to realize that this too shall pass as it always has and always will.

I hear you, I do.

But UK data analysis based on Italian rates of transmission and mortality put the UK death rate at 250,000 by August 2020. That's why we moved to suppression. But yes, absolutely, people panicking and buying massive stockpiles is a human disgrace. I think we're both agreeing but speaking a slightly different dialect. Ye ken?

 

[lexluthermiester]

Well...We can not be sure just yet but when I saw how many of those basketball players have Covid-19 without any symptoms it does make you wonder what is actual number of infected people I was always under impression that is probably around 10x more then what we know and even with those numbers I believe that death rate was higher than common flu but there is a possibility that the number of "infected"people is even much higher then those predictions.....

Exactly. The real numbers are not known because the instances of people who either have it and are unaware because the symptoms are so mild, or because the symptoms are mild enough that they don't feel the need to report it, perhaps because they believe they have something else.

The reality is this; Of the known numbers, the morality rate is somewhat higher than the flu. Of the estimated numbers, the mortality rate is on par with the flu.

So why all the nonsense? People, companies and governments are pressing the panic button over something that is little more serious than that of the common flu.

But UK data analysis based on Italian rates of transmission and mortality put the UK death rate at 250,000 by August 2020.

I'm not buying that. Italy is an outlier, an exception rather than the rule. Most of the rest of the world(including the British commonwealth) is not getting hit that hard. This suggests strongly that there is something unique about that region/populous that make them more vulnerable. The rest of the world's populous however is reacting medically on a level that would be expected of a seasonal illness, such as the aforementioned flu.

That's why we moved to suppression.

But that's my point, isolation is not the solution. The virus is already out there(the horse has bolted and been gone for a long while). The best course of action is prevention on a local level. Teaching people proper preventive personal hygine, the use of face masks and gloves, environmental sanitation and so on. These are the actions that will have the best effect for the general populous.

But yes, absolutely, people panicking and buying massive stockpiles is a human disgrace. I think we're both agreeing but speaking a slightly different dialect. Ye ken?

Yes, but social, economic and education event cancellations are an equally disgusting disgrace as well. It's sheer stupidity and ignorance. The virus is already out there. What are we going to do, cancel the whole damn planet? Yes, let's trash our entire civilization and see how safe everyone is afterwards...

EDIT; Rant over. Frustration vented...

 

[Zyll Goliat]

Exactly. The real numbers are not known because the instances of people who either have it and are unaware because the symptoms are so mild, or because the symptoms are mild enough that they don't feel the need to report it, perhaps because they believe they have something else.

The reality is this; Of the known numbers, the morality rate is somewhat higher than the flu. Of the estimated numbers, the mortality rate is on par with the flu.

So why all the nonsense? People, companies and governments are pressing the panic button over something that is little more serious than that of the common flu.

As always it could be some agenda behind all of this....As we saw in many countries governments bring easily some laws that in normal/regular conditions is impossible to implement also things that worry's me the most is how many people are going to lose their jobs because of this and how are they going to pay their taxes/credits/bills/food,and there are migrants in EU that now barely anyone talk about and their numbers still rising each day.....Well we can only just speculate about all of this atm. and I am afraid that this is not the right topic for it.....

 

[rtwjunkie]

And how is that any different from new strains of the common cold or flu?

How is it different? We are able to immunize vast swaths of the public against influenza. And despite the fact that the strain immunized for mutates as it travels the globe, the immunizations are able to at least weaken any infection most people get because the mutations still share many structural similarities with the immunized-for strain. This is why anti-viral drugs like Tami-flu have great success if administered early. We are also able to have high risk people get a pneumonia vaccine, which lessens their risk as well.

With COVID-19 there is no vaccine, so there is no way to even partially help people’s bodies prepare for it. And it does not actually cause pneumonia in people’s lungs like influenza does. It actually attacks the lung lining directly in a manner like shoving ground glass into the lungs, literally tearing the tissue. With no defense, the only deterrent to its spread is to be distant from each other.

 

[Vayra86]

So why all the nonsense? People, companies and governments are pressing the panic button over something that is little more serious than that of the common flu.

I'm not buying that. Italy is an outlier, an exception rather than the rule.

The problem with your reasoning is that you are switching cause and effect around happily and then draw your own conclusions.

Italy is an exceptional case. The reasons for that are evident though: they underestimated and did not respond in time. This 'disgrace' you speak of which is a partial shutdown of public and social life, and it is partial, a whole lot of things are still working as planned, is the reason many other countries are not mimicking Italy.

So Italy being the exception only underlines the need for what is happening now around the globe. The fact that all these governments do this, despite differences in ideology or type of government/state, should tell you enough. This is real, and the effects of dampening the infection rate as much as possible are real too. Here in Netherlands we have an extremely transparent government when it comes to this crisis, every decision is explained in how it was weighed and people give interviews on it daily; the info we get, I have no reason to believe is false or overly panicky. It is very fact based and I am very pleased to see this, honestly..

Also another issue and hidden corpse is that less developed countries have a grossly inaccurate count, and you can rest assured there is a serious number of deaths and infected over there that is completely invisible to us, and might remain so. Immigrants were mentioned, but that's just a tiny tip of the iceberg.

 

[Sybaris_Caesar]

Supposedly 14 infected and 1 death in the country. Don't believe the numbers for a moment.
Loads of workers coming back from abroad and giving the middle finger to self-quarantine. People near/close to them from around the country are posting that they are scared of their in facebook.

Then there was another case where people actually gathered in a hospital suspected of having a covid-19 patient, to sate their curiosity. Fucking lol.

Oh and there's this: https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-...-testing-negative-for-COVID-19/7711584456914/

Oh and here's this too: https://philnews.ph/2020/03/18/covid-19-cases-100000-in-3-months-12-days-to-for-another-100000/

Since you don’t think it’s not that deadly you should sign up for a ncov vaccine trial if anyone in your country is offering. Free monies. Make the most of the downturn in the economy. @lexluthermiester

 

[hat]

Well...We can not be sure just yet but when I saw how many of those basketball players have Covid-19 without any symptoms it does make you wonder what is actual number of infected people I was always under impression that is probably around 10x more then what we know and even with those numbers I believe that death rate was still way higher than common flu but there is a possibility that the number of "infected"people is even much higher then those predictions.....

Exactly. The real numbers are not known because the instances of people who either have it and are unaware because the symptoms are so mild, or because the symptoms are mild enough that they don't feel the need to report it, perhaps because they believe they have something else.

The reality is this; Of the known numbers, the morality rate is somewhat higher than the flu. Of the estimated numbers, the mortality rate is on par with the flu.

So why all the nonsense? People, companies and governments are pressing the panic button over something that is little more serious than that of the common flu.

I'm not buying that. Italy is an outlier, an exception rather than the rule. Most of the rest of the world(including the British commonwealth) is not getting hit that hard. This suggests strongly that there is something unique about that region/populous that make them more vulnerable. The rest of the world's populous however is reacting medically on a level that would be expected of a seasonal illness, such as the aforementioned flu.

But that's my point, isolation is not the solution. The virus is already out there(the horse has bolted and been gone for a long while). The best course of action is prevention on a local level. Teaching people proper preventive personal hygine, the use of face masks and gloves, environmental sanitation and so on. These are the actions that will have the best effect for the general populous.

Yes, but social, economic and education event cancellations are an equally disgusting disgrace as well. It's sheer stupidity and ignorance. The virus is already out there. What are we going to do, cancel the whole damn planet? Yes, let's trash our entire civilization and see how safe everyone is afterwards...

EDIT; Rant over. Frustration vented...

As always it could be some agenda behind all of this....As we saw in many countries governments bring easily some laws that in normal/regular conditions is impossible to implement also things that worry's me the most is how many people are going to lose their jobs because of this and how are they going to pay their taxes/credits/bills/food,and there are migrants in EU that now barely anyone talk about and their numbers still rising each day.....Well we can only just speculate about all of this atm. and I am afraid that this is not the right topic for it.....

A few points...

Indeed, the real numbers are going to be far above and beyond what's actually reported. I've been sick with what I ascribe to be a mild form of even the common cold and still went to work. My energy level was slightly reduced, but I got through just fine. It's interesting that the symptoms can range anywhere from barely anything at all to death... I wouldn't expect it to vary so wildly.

Isolation won't make the virus go away. The point, again, is to attempt to curb the number of infected individuals who are going to need health care if/whenthey catch it so they can get the care they need. The system can't deal with entire populations infected at once.

The economic fallout is as worrisome as the virus itself, perhaps moreso... but it's not really something that can be avoided. The governments of the world have decided that it's better to deal with the consequences of attempting to slow this thing down than it is to just do business as usual while the virus does what it does. I've heard of our government here supposedly helping people out, but I can't confirm it personally. I heard something on the radio about tax breaks or even checks here in the US, but I don't remember the limited details I heard of at the time, or who it even applies to...

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Reuters finally built a full page for the SVG time lapse along with lots of other metrics tracking how it is unfolding:

Tracking the spread of the novel coronavirus

Reuters maps all places where COVID-19 cases have been confirmed.

graphics.reuters.com

This link will likely be relevant until it passes so if you really want to track it, bookmark/favorite it.


Global fatality rate is 4.26%.

 

[xkm1948]

@the54thvoid

This is turning into the other CoVID thread already simply because it shows up in the browsed thread. The content is 100% off top topic now. Can we get this merged with the other CoVID19 thread?

 

[the54thvoid]

@the54thvoid

This is turning into the other CoVID thread already simply because it shows up in the browsed thread. The content is 100% off top topic now. Can we get this merged with the other CoVID19 thread?

I'm going to give this thread a chance. If I submit to defeat again, I may as well hand in my hall pass.

However, I have free-reign in this world (Sci & Tech is my mod sub-forum) so all folks take note - Stay dead centre on topic and keep opinions based on fact from reputable sources. Of note, if the publication isn't from this century, it's likely not relevant.

I suggest everyone uses this site as an excellent starting point:

National Institutes of Health | Coronavirus

Learn how NIH is supporting research in COVID-19 testing, treatments, and vaccines.

www.nih.gov

I've used it for years as a reference source to smack peopole about with good, hard evidence-based science.

 

[hat]

@the54thvoid

This is turning into the other CoVID thread already simply because it shows up in the browsed thread. The content is 100% off top topic now. Can we get this merged with the other CoVID19 thread?

FWIW, I appreciate your insight on the topic. While I don't understand all the genome jargon, the bits and pieces I do catch are of interest to me. I'm sure many of us feel the same.

 

[HTC]

Flu does the same thing. Your point?

Hell, this year alone FLU is more deadly;

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

Keep in mind, these numbers and the numbers above are ONLY for the US. Let that sink in.

Exactly. And everywhere in the world is following the same methodology. Those with mild symptoms will recover as their immune system can adapt and handle the virus.

Something else that should be noted, observation is showing that people with COVID19 are not staying contagious. Once their immune system adapts, they are non-contagious 24 to 36 hours later.

You're focusing on the death toll: it's the forced hospitalization with assisted breathing you should be focusing on.

Have you ever heard of seasonal flu overwhelming hospitals to the extent they have in Italy, actually forcing doctors to CHOOSE who to give the assisted breathing to, thus effectively condemning to death those that are denied? That's why the death toll in Italy is so high.

 

[hat]

Have you ever heard of seasonal flu overwhelming hospitals to the extent they have in Italy, actually forcing doctors to CHOOSE who to give the assisted breathing to, thus effectively condemning to death those that are denied? That's why the death toll in Italy is so high.

No, but we have vaccines, and some level of natural immunity to the seasonal flu. I guess it's like the difference between getting shot with and without a bulletproof vest... bit of an odd analogy... but it seems to reflect the situation we're in.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Have you ever heard of seasonal flu overwhelming hospitals to the extent they have in Italy, actually forcing doctors to CHOOSE who to give the assisted breathing to, thus effectively condemning to death those that are denied? That's why the death toll in Italy is so high.

And why the rest of the world is taking extreme measures. There's not enough ventilators.

Italy has an almost 10% mortality rate.

 

[the54thvoid]

Two weeks of isolation in Italy and they've still recorded their largest jump in fatalities. Over 400 (3000 total). Question is: on the bell curve, is this near the peak? If not... oh dear.