Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[HTC]

Two weeks of isolation in Italy and they've still recorded their largest jump in fatalities. Over 400 (3000 total). Question is: on the bell curve, is this near the peak? If not... oh dear.

The incubation period from before the lockdown is almost over: i expect the number of NEW reported cases to go down significantly @ that time BUT ONLY @ that time. Until then, unfortunately, things will get worse

Here in Portugal, the President is expected make an announcement to the country @ 20:00 GMT declaring state of emergency, thus giving the government additional powers. The scope of the measures is not yet known but i expect it to be quite restrictive and severe.

Among the measures, it's being considered for all loans to be waived during a certain period and either being payed after a few months or being scrapped entirely now, being postponed to after the end of the loans: this focuses primarily in house loans, in an attempt to give the families liquidity with which to ride out this virus.

We've had a 2nd fatality: a 73 year old man that spent a vacation in Italy in February, and 2 of his sons are also infected. The number of infected has risen to 642.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Two weeks of isolation in Italy and they've still recorded their largest jump in fatalities. Over 400 (3000 total). Question is: on the bell curve, is this near the peak? If not... oh dear.

Italy...isn't getting better...yet...

South Korea looks like they got a handle on it.

 

[HTC]

Italy...isn't getting better...yet...
View attachment 148455
South Korea looks like they got a handle on it.

It's seems they got over 90 new cases today so they may be getting hit with a 2nd wave: a bit too early to tell.

Still, South Korea is the only nation that HAD a big spread but FLATTENED the curve, as indicated in the picture you just posted.

What did they do differently? just 3 things:

1 - testing
2 - testing
3 - testing

That about sums it up.

 

[R0H1T]

What did they do differently? just 3 things:

1 - testing
2 - testing
3 - testing

That about sums it up.

I'm not sure what affect testing, testing & more testing would have on the number of (new) cases ~ which are now seemingly coming under control. It has to do more with their healthcare system. Their mortality rate is about 1% vs 4% for China & 10% for Italy, the second wave thing would be crucial though & how quickly nCoV spreads in the summers.

 

[Lindatje]

Italy has an almost 10% mortality rate.

Sorry but that's not true. There are many more infected people in Italy who are not tested, this large group has no to mild symptoms. Here in my country we have tested 2000+ cases, but it is estimated to be over 12,000. This is because friends or family members of infected (tested) persons are no longer tested. However, these persons must remain at home until their symptoms disappear for 24 hours. The only country that has conducted hundreds of thousands of tests is Korea. So the mortality rate is much lower. Don’t het me wrong, it’s a dangerous virus.

 

[blobster21]

i'll be at home for the next 30 days, according with my employer and governement.

There's this derogatory form to print and fill whenever you have to go outside, either for purchasing first necessity goods, going to work when your employer ask you to, etc.....

Anyone caught without this form will incurr a €135 fine !

 

[HTC]

I'm not sure what affect testing, testing & more testing would have on the number of (new) cases ~ which are now seemingly coming under control. It has to do more with their healthcare system. Their mortality rate is about 1% vs 4% for China & 10% for Italy, the second wave thing would be crucial though & how quickly nCoV spreads in the summers.

By detecting infections EVEN BEFORE SYMPTOMS, they isolate those individuals early, thus slowing down the transmission. This helps prevent overwhelming the hospitals, thus keeping the death toll lower.

Obviously they didn't do ONLY testing but mass testing IS the 1st line of defense.

 

[Zyll Goliat]

The incubation period from before the lockdown is almost over: i expect the number of NEW reported cases to go down significantly @ that time BUT ONLY @ that time. Until then, unfortunately, things will get worse

Here in Portugal, the President is expected make an announcement to the country @ 20:00 GMT declaring state of emergency, thus giving the government additional powers. The scope of the measures is not yet known but i expect it to be quite restrictive and severe.

Among the measures, it's being considered for all loans to be waived during a certain period and either being payed after a few months or being scrapped entirely now, being postponed to after the end of the loans: this focuses primarily in house loans, in an attempt to give the families liquidity with which to ride out this virus.

We've had a 2nd fatality: a 73 year old man that spent a vacation in Italy in February, and 2 of his sons are also infected. The number of infected has risen to 642.

From last night here in Serbia we have state of emergency with army on the street/borders and near hospitals and also we have so called "police hour"from 20:00-05:00 when no one is allowed to be outside anymore IF does not have permission for it,people older then 65 MUST stay in their home every day where if needed they will receive any necessary help or supplies of food&medicine.....and BTW so far as we know we have"only" 89 infected/no casualties.....

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Sorry but that's not true. There are many more infected people in Italy who are not tested, this large group has no to mild symptoms. Here in my country we have tested 2000+ cases, but it is estimated to be over 12,000. This is because friends or family members of infected (tested) persons are no longer tested. However, these persons must remain at home until their symptoms disappear for 24 hours. The only country that has conducted hundreds of thousands of tests is Korea. So the mortality rate is much lower. Don’t het me wrong, it’s a dangerous virus.

Tracking the spread of the novel coronavirus

Reuters maps all places where COVID-19 cases have been confirmed.

graphics.reuters.com

Italy: 9.3%

By detecting infections EVEN BEFORE SYMPTOMS, they isolate those individuals early, thus slowing down the transmission. This helps prevent overwhelming the hospitals, thus keeping the death toll lower.

Obviously they didn't do ONLY testing but mass testing IS the 1st line of defense.

Ideally, we would test everyone in a day and quarantine them accordingly. That's really the only way to stop a virus like this from propagating.

The reason why this is getting out of hand is because the number of tests that can be performed per day is extremely limited (like hundreds for a whole state). When you can't separate the haves from the have nots, the only option is mass self quarentine which is what everyone is increasingly doing.

 

[Lindatje]

Italy: 9.3%

But there are far more cases then 31.506....

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Conjecture. What we know is what we know.

 

[the54thvoid]

But there are far more cases then 31.506....

Guessing isn't scientific...

 

[HTC]

The Portuguese President has just formalized Emergency State in Portugal, after approval from Portuguese Parliament.

We will not have a quarantine like Italy, @ least for now, but the government now has more powers to implement measures that it didn't have before, such as strike suspensions or forcing supermarkets to remain open, even if the owners want to close them.

This Emergency State will have a duration of 15 days, as per the Constitution, but it can be extended @ that time if the need arises. More specific measures will be known tomorrow.

EDIT

I thought of a few things that, the way i see it, would be beneficial to all:

- lock all prices of goods to their February values: vendors would be allowed to lower them with promotions but NOT raise them, for as long is this crisis lasts
- now that sports are in a virtual stand still, try and coordinate with the various NHS so that the sports entities open their medical facilities to the general public for the "smaller things", thus enabling the hospitals to offload some of their patients in order to focus more on this crisis
- recall retired health officials that are from the diagnostic area of expertise to help with the diagnostic part of COVID-19 testing: since these are older people, have then do day shifts while those that are ALREADY in such jobs do night shifts

It's all i can think right now.

 

[hat]

Guessing isn't scientific...

It's also not very scientific to look at a number and say "well, that's the data we got, roll with it" when you know damn well the actual number of infected is way higher than that number... you just don't know what it is.

 

[lexluthermiester]

You're focusing on the death toll: it's the forced hospitalization with assisted breathing you should be focusing on.

Have you ever heard of seasonal flu overwhelming hospitals to the extent they have in Italy, actually forcing doctors to CHOOSE who to give the assisted breathing to, thus effectively condemning to death those that are denied? That's why the death toll in Italy is so high.

Two weeks of isolation in Italy and they've still recorded their largest jump in fatalities. Over 400 (3000 total). Question is: on the bell curve, is this near the peak? If not... oh dear.

After discussions here and in another thread I did some more research today and I still conclude that Italy, Spain and Iran have something about their regions that is making them more vulnerable to the virus than other regions, even accounting for the unpreparedness. Whatever it is, it's more than just a medical system being unprepared.

It's also not very scientific to look at a number and say "well, that's the data we got, roll with it" when you know damn well the actual number of infected is way higher than that number... you just don't know what it is.

However, we can not act on assumed information. We have to act on confirmed and verified information. That is the scientific method and the methodology with which we must fall back on.

 

[hat]

However, we can not act on assumed information. We have to act on confirmed and verified information. That is the scientific method and the methodology with which we must fall back on.

That's... a bit... uh? We know there are more cases than what have been confirmed by testing. We just don't know how many. To ignore this fact just because the cases haven't confirmed would be, well... not good... Ever seen The Boondocks? The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence. What we have here is a known unknown.

 

[R0H1T]

After discussions here and in another thread I did some more research today and I still conclude that Italy, Spain and Iran have something about their regions that is making them more vulnerable to the virus than other regions, even accounting for the unpreparedness. Whatever it is, it's more than just a medical system being unprepared.

I'm thinking heat, probably a favorable temperature range, because these regions are generally the hottest among the most affected countries. Of course it's not Summer yet so we'll have to see how this develops over the hottest season where temps will exceed 40C in many parts of the world.

Guessing isn't scientific...

Yes & there's reasons why there aren't too many tests being done, part of it is the unavailability for such a large number of people worldwide but the other major part is to avoid panic & complete meltdown in many places like say LatAm, South Asia or Africa.

 

[lexluthermiester]

I'm thinking heat, probably a favorable temperature range, because these regions are generally the hottest among the most affected countries.

Perhaps. Or maybe a social practice.

Let's look at the numbers(approx), currently.

China
81,000 infected
3300 dead
1,400,000,000 populace.

Italy
36,000 infected
3000 dead
60,000,000 populace

Iran
18,000 infected
1,100 dead
83,000,000 populace

When we look at these numbers, the differences between these nations and the rest of the world are staggering. With China, their numbers are easily explained by their vast population. With nearly 25% of the worlds population as well as being ground zero for the infection, high numbers are expected.

But with Italy, these facts are not true. They have a small fraction of the world's populace and they were not one of the first nations to have the infection, yet they have nearly equal numbers of deaths to China. Iran is a similar case, but with a smaller fraction of the deaths.

The healthcare systems in those nations might be behind the times a bit, but not enough to account for these levels of seriousness. Given the preponderance of available evidence, medical system unpreparedness can not be the total cause. A contributing factor, certainly, but not a major factor. Something else is causing more fatalities in those two nations than in the rest of the world. And it is not ignorance or inaction. Many of the worlds nations were just as ignorant and late to act and have not seen similar levels of severity.

 

[the54thvoid]

It's also not very scientific to look at a number and say "well, that's the data we got, roll with it" when you know damn well the actual number of infected is way higher than that number... you just don't know what it is.

I agree but when somebody gives an actual guess as a figure, it's misleading. Whether we like it or not, people often grab onto tangible items (such as a number) and it gets thrown around as fact. So, absolutely, we know the cases are far higher than what is tested and confirmed but that is all we can say. Guessing at the actual number is not helpful at all.

 

[hat]

I agree but when somebody gives an actual guess as a figure, it's misleading. Whether we like it or not, people often grab onto tangible items (such as a number) and it gets thrown around as fact. So, absolutely, we know the cases are far higher than what is tested and confirmed but that is all we can say. Guessing at the actual number is not helpful at all.

This much, I agree with fully. There are simulations, math, and estimated numbers, but it's still an estimation. These numbers should not be held as hard facts, but they're not useless either.

 

[biffzinker]

Three more confirmed cases in Alaska, two are from the lower 48, and the third is from Europe.

There was talk of closing the state's border, and shelter in place.

DHSS: Three new cases of new coronavirus in Alaska, bringing total to nine

Three new cases of the new coronavirus have been identified in Alaska, bringing the total to nine in the state thus far, as announced by the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services Wednesday afternoon.

www.ktuu.com

 

[r.h.p]

Australian airline QANTAS has today layed off 30,000 employees till May due to Covid-19

 

[lexluthermiester]

Australian airline QANTAS has today layed off 30,000 employees till May due to Covid-19

Many airlines are going to be doing that. It's a bad time to be in aerospace.

 

[1freedude]

Many airlines are going to be doing that. It's a bad time to be in aerospace.

Take a trip over to airliners.net to be fully engulfed in all matter dealing with aerospace and this mess. From air traffic control towers being evacuated to load capacity reduction updates to stock price discussions.
I'd still rather be in aerospace than a hospital. My work week starts Friday, I'll let you know if I still have a job.

 

[Vayra86]

Italy...isn't getting better...yet...
View attachment 148455
South Korea looks like they got a handle on it.

The possible scenario as it looks right now is that South Korea might be up for a second outbreak if they unlock the door again, especially to and from foreign countries. This is also the case and expectation for all those other countries that are having effective lockdowns at this time.

Given what I've seen and read, the most plausible scenario is a continued, reduced public lifestyle until we have vaccination, or until a large enough part of the populace is immunized through exposure. The current lockdown is not effective in creating the latter. Here in the Netherlands, thus far we've refrained from a total lockdown and limited public life is possible, people do go outside but keep their distance. So there will still be new cases but they will accumulate less quickly, keeping the pressure on health care manageable. I think this will be our status quo for quite some time.

Basically we just need a little bit of everything so nothing truly falls apart. That also goes for the economy. Total shutdowns and hard measures will bite us in the ass hard and the counter effect may be worse than the problem we're fixing. I'm quite sure that reality is going to sink in elsewhere in due time as well. Not trying to say 'we in the Netherlands have the best approach'... but it does seem to be the most logical one to me given all the info I've had. One thing is dead certain... it is simply impossible to keep people behind (voluntary) locked doors for any longer than a couple of weeks. Its a mental exercise the vast majority can't cope with at all. China needed a carefully managed totalitarian system and culture for it - we don't have that stick in the West and even if we did, we wouldn't accept it.

The healthcare systems in those nations might be behind the times a bit, but not enough to account for these levels of seriousness. Given the preponderance of available evidence, medical system unpreparedness can not be the total cause. A contributing factor, certainly, but not a major factor. Something else is causing more fatalities in those two nations than in the rest of the world. And it is not ignorance or inaction. Many of the worlds nations were just as ignorant and late to act and have not seen similar levels of severity.

Italy and Iran have just one single thing in common: they both ignored it for too long and even when they did respond, it was completely uncoordinated. Hospitals suddenly got flooded and the better half would probably not even have needed to be on an IC-ward at all. Said it before... Italy has some of the best healthcare quality in the world. But the worst national and crisis management too.

You say why Italy as if the country isn't unique. Italy is also the country of the collapsed Genoa bridge... It is the country that built FYRA high speed trains for us and managed to deliver a dozen or so and each of them would be radically different. Every individual builder of those trains made their own small design tweaks and decisions, even up to and including changes in the components themselves. Half of them was back in maintenance during the first winter they were tested. Yeah. Italy

Italy... The numbers may surprise you, but they seem perfectly logical to me. Really.

This country builds a high risk structure over houses and then just stops maintenance. Another nice example is garbage. The southern half of Italy is a massive garbage bin, as in, there is frequently arising problem of garbage simply not being collected. Why? Corruption. The Mob. Yep... There are a lot of fat rich men in fat seats doing nothing over there and wielding a lot of power. For decades...