Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[FordGT90Concept]

Proper personal hygiene and PPE is.

There isn't enough for front line workers, never mind entire populations.

 

[lexluthermiester]

There isn't enough for front line workers, never mind entire populations.

True. It's an oversight that needs attention and better planning in future.

 

[oobymach]

Just saw this on facebook, seems like we've reached this stage.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Marginally at best. There are several major aspects to this virus which make isolation ineffectual to it's transmission: 1. It travels through the air and can do so for a considerable distance. 2. It can survive in water micro-droplets for days when not in direct sunlight and for hours in direct sunlight. 3. The estimates of incubation period are proving to be far more varied that previously thought. The virus can stay in a persons system for up to 2 months before any symptoms arise. 4. Person to person transmission is preventable but takes proper education of the populace, which was not done.

If the world's populace had been warned AND educated about proper, effective personal hygiene, the numbers would be much lower. Isolation is NOT the answer. Proper personal hygiene and PPE is.

That is not the information I am hearing from leading experts, it travels in droplets and therefore they are heavier than air so there is no "floating" in the air.... you sneeze, it heads towards the ground and/or rests upon a surface on it's way.

Just to add to my earlier comment on lockdowns and overcrowded public transport, aside from that there is also some thinking that a proportion of people in lockdown may well be getting infected whilst shopping in Supermarkets, for those people who are adhering faithfully to a lockdown but still end up infected, essential shopping is one of the few ways that they could/would get infected.

 

[sepheronx]

Kremlin warns of huge influx of Moscow patients as coronavirus toll climbs

The Kremlin said on Saturday a "huge influx" of coronavirus patients was beginning to put a strain on hospitals in Moscow as Russia's death toll rose to more than 100.

www.reuters.com

They are finishing up a medical center just for covid-19 in Moscow. Up to 1,300 beds.

 

[lexluthermiester]

That is not the information I am hearing from leading experts, it travels in droplets and therefore they are heavier than air so there is no "floating" in the air.... you sneeze, it heads towards the ground and/or rests upon a surface on it's way.

That is true, but the virus can exist in micro-droplets as well. It is carried out of a persons exhaling breath and can exist in the surrounding air currents for several meters. Anyone walking through that exhaled breath runs the risk of contracting the suspended virus micro-droplets when inhaled. Such a risk is low but still present as it only takes one virus strain to begin an infection. This is not paranoia, it's physics, plain and simple. A virus is a very small thing and can easily exist in microscopic volumes of water, such as the vapors exhaled from a persons breath. Virus epidemiology is a very complex science process. However, this particular aspect of it is well known and studied. Persistence rates can vary from virus to virus but it is generally accepted that a viral infection can be transmitted via the water vapor in a persons exhaled breath.

 

[Tatty_Two]

It does seem odd, I know we have talked about climates and how they may affect the virus and it's spread, but when you look at the maps and pinpoint specific areas it is clear that the further West you go the much more significant the outbreak both in terms of those infected and fatalities, obviously populations play a huge part but nonetheless there are massive population areas in Asia and the Middle East with arguably much more challenging healthcare systems that appear to have neither the spread or the fatalities...… yet.

Microsoft Bing COVID-19 Tracker

Track confirmed cases of COVID-19 around the globe with Bing

www.bing.com

 

[lexluthermiester]

yet.

This is a key point. Time will, of course, tell. I personally raise an eyebrow to the numbers being reported from China. They started plausible, but then just suddenly plateaued and fell off. This is not consistent with known virus progression trends. I suspect that something is amiss. But then again Korea, Japan, Taiwan and other nations in that area of the world have seemingly brought it under control.

 

[P4-630]

COVID-19 map of The Netherlands

Hier slaat het coronavirus in Nederland toe (kaart)

Het coronavirus grijpt om zich heen in Nederland. De brandhaard ligt in Noord-Brabant, maar ook elders in het land duiken steeds meer besmettingen op.

www.telegraaf.nl

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Manhattan is 8th in the world for population density and wealthy enough to widespread test for the virus. Port-au-Prince, which has similar population density but a limited ability to test for the virus.

List of cities proper by population density - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think that cross between wealth and density is the reason why Manhattan exploded.

The mystery is Philippines. They have four cities more dense than Manhattan, not a great deal of wealth, but get supported by USA. Logic dictates they should have four hotspots exploding similar to NYC but they don't...yet...and the reason might be as simple as NYC being the trade hub of the world. NYC probably has all of the main genotypes of the virus bouncing around in it because it accepts goods and people from everywhere.

...it might be coming for Philippines. Headline as of 2 hours ago:

Philippines reports highest single-day death toll from coronavirus

Philippines has temporarily barred doctors, nurses from leaving for work overseas

gulfnews.com

...also, NYC was really late to lockdown. The governor made the mayor do it.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 16585 confirmed infected --- 598 more
- 277 recovered --- 11 more
- 504 fatalities --- 34 more
- 136243 suspected cases --- 5943 more
- 162798 tests taken --- like i thought, yesterday's number was a typo
- 3611 waiting for test results --- 350 less
- 25041 under watch from authorities --- 391 less
- 1177 hospitalized --- 2 more
- 228 in ICU --- 5 less

Portugal's Government and President have decided to release nearly 16% of it's prisoners from jails, depending on specific criteria, in an effort to avoid mass spreading in prisons because prisons don't have the capability to enact distancing between prisoners and guards due to the nature of the place. So far, only one prisoner has been confirmed infected, and has since recovered, but there have been several guards that have tested positive already.

 

[the54thvoid]

Manhattan is 8th in the world for population density and wealthy enough to widespread test for the virus. Port-au-Prince, which has similar population density but a limited ability to test for the virus.

List of cities proper by population density - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think that cross between wealth and density is the reason why Manhattan exploded.

The mystery is Philippines. They have four cities more dense than Manhattan, not a great deal of wealth, but get supported by USA. Logic dictates they should have four hotspots exploding similar to NYC but they don't...yet...and the reason might be as simple as NYC being the trade hub of the world. NYC probably has all of the main genotypes of the virus bouncing around in it because it accepts goods and people from everywhere.

...it might be coming for Philippines. Headline as of 2 hours ago:

Philippines reports highest single-day death toll from coronavirus

Philippines has temporarily barred doctors, nurses from leaving for work overseas

gulfnews.com

...also, NYC was really late to lockdown. The governor made the mayor do it.

I think using common sense you can see the influentional factors. Primarily you have travel. Second - trade, then third - cultural/geographical. If a single person came to a village of extreme poverty, with little chance of far-ranging travel, the virus has few paths to exploit. But take that infected individual to London, New York, Madrid, Paris etc, and you have the possibility for a massive spread, with huge exposure levels, busy commutes and social crowding.

Tourism and business travel also explains vast discrepancies in global exposure. I'm amazed it's actually reached so far. One rationale for Italy is (I think documented somewhere - source required) a ski resort had an outbreak close to the initial spread in Italy. Those eurozone travellers brought it to their own countries, France in particular. From experience of friends, folk who like skiing holidays, travel a lot. Its that sort of mechanic that helps define the weird expansion, perhaps why some places are so late to the party. But hey, when you get the invite, the party starts jumping, as it were.

 

[HTC]

[...]
Tourism and business travel also explains vast discrepancies in global exposure. I'm amazed it's actually reached so far. One rationale for Italy is (I think documented somewhere - source required) a ski resort had an outbreak close to the initial spread in Italy. Those eurozone travellers brought it to their own countries, France in particular. From experience of friends, folk who like skiing holidays, travel a lot. Its that sort of mechanic that helps define the weird expansion, perhaps why some places are so late to the party. But hey, when you get the invite, the party starts jumping, as it were.

Not 100% certain but it's believed that's how it got to Portugal: Portuguese people had vacation in Italy and, when they returned, they brought the virus with them. From then on, it spread locally.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

The genotype mapping also linked a Brazilian case to Italy's strain.

 

[Gmr_Chick]

Tourism and business travel also explains vast discrepancies in global exposure. I'm amazed it's actually reached so far. One rationale for Italy is (I think documented somewhere - source required) a ski resort had an outbreak close to the initial spread in Italy. Those eurozone travellers brought it to their own countries, France in particular.

I'm a subscriber to The Local: Denmark (they also have versions for Sweden, Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain and Switzerland), a sort of online newspaper that tells Danish news in English (though I can read Dansk fairly well), and that's exactly how the virus came to Denmark. A man, his wife and their two children had been on holiday to a ski resort in Northern Italy. A while later, the man fell ill (at the time of the article's printing, he was the only one who had it, his wife and kids were clear) and was later determined to have COVID-19 that they were able to trace back to the ski resort. I don't think he was "patient zero" for COVID in Denmark, but it did get going after that as Danes returned from ski trips and whatnot.

 

[repman244]

Marginally at best. There are several major aspects to this virus which make isolation ineffectual to it's transmission: 1. It travels through the air and can do so for a considerable distance. 2. It can survive in water micro-droplets for days when not in direct sunlight and for hours in direct sunlight. 3. The estimates of incubation period are proving to be far more varied that previously thought. The virus can stay in a persons system for up to 2 months before any symptoms arise. 4. Person to person transmission is preventable but takes proper education of the populace, which was not done.

If the world's populace had been warned AND educated about proper, effective personal hygiene, the numbers would be much lower. Isolation is NOT the answer. Proper personal hygiene and PPE is.

This.
I saw an article about the studies in China, where they found certain people which made a full recovery after getting the virus, but transmitted it even 1 month after that.

The lockdown is ok just to prevent the initial rapid rise (and to maybe educate people), but long term as I see it now is completely useless - we will not get rid of this virus, not like this.
My country put a mild lockdown quite early so we never saw exponential growth, but the virus spread in the elderly homes the most, and it still is since nobody employed more strict measures for it.
So now you have a situation where the government is financing people/companies which are impacted by the lockdown, but the highest number of infections is in the elderly homes - this to me is mindblowing.

The funding should go entirely towards protecting the older population and protective equipment - and it should not be used by the general public for shopping like it is now. I guess Sweden got it right, just now I read an article where the death rate and the number of infections is dropping despite having no lockdown. So like you said, education and proper hygiene play the biggest part here and the number of people that respect that.

 

[Vayra86]

This.
I saw an article about the studies in China, where they found certain people which made a full recovery after getting the virus, but transmitted it even 1 month after that.

The lockdown is ok just to prevent the initial rapid rise (and to maybe educate people), but long term as I see it now is completely useless - we will not get rid of this virus, not like this.
My country put a mild lockdown quite early so we never saw exponential growth, but the virus spread in the elderly homes the most, and it still is since nobody employed more strict measures for it.
So now you have a situation where the government is financing people/companies which are impacted by the lockdown, but the highest number of infections is in the elderly homes - this to me is mindblowing.

The funding should go entirely towards protecting the older population and protective equipment - and it should not be used by the general public for shopping like it is now. I guess Sweden got it right, just now I read an article where the death rate and the number of infections is dropping despite having no lockdown. So like you said, education and proper hygiene play the biggest part here and the number of people that respect that.

I think you might very well be on to something for a long term / mid term solution here. A mix of strict protection of the elderly along with better personal hygiene (and maybe even some distancing / crowding limitations where possible, but nothing too strict like now) might very well be sufficient.

Even then, we would be looking at an infection rate that is high. Hopefully it is at or below 1. If that is the case, this looks like a best case scenario going forward until vaccination is available. This also means massed events won't be happening anytime soon. You will be having contact with limited numbers of people at any time. It also means we accept that people get infected, and that we treat them as best we can; this means the elderly will be at increased risk in any case.

This is really awesome - you can probably read past the Dutch. It shows different models for how and when lockdowns were effectuated and released.

Hoe gaan we de pandemiepuzzel oplossen?

Hoe zijn we eigenlijk in deze ‘intelligente lockdown’ beland en, belangrijker nog, hoe komen we daar de komende maanden stap voor stap weer uit?

www.volkskrant.nl

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 16934 confirmed infected --- 349 more
- 277 recovered --- no change
- 535 fatalities --- 31 more
- 139184 suspected cases --- 2941 more
- 163616 tests taken --- 818 more
- 3264 waiting for test results --- 347 less
- 26989 under watch from authorities --- 1948 more
- 1187 hospitalized --- 10 more
- 188 in ICU --- 40 less

Low number of new cases plus significant decrease in number of those in ICU: hope it's a trend ...

 

[repman244]

I think you might very well be on to something for a long term / mid term solution here. A mix of strict protection of the elderly along with better personal hygiene (and maybe even some distancing / crowding limitations where possible, but nothing too strict like now) might very well be sufficient.

Even then, we would be looking at an infection rate that is high. Hopefully it is at or below 1. If that is the case, this looks like a best case scenario going forward until vaccination is available. This also means massed events won't be happening anytime soon. You will be having contact with limited numbers of people at any time. It also means we accept that people get infected, and that we treat them as best we can; this means the elderly will be at increased risk in any case.

This is really awesome - you can probably read past the Dutch. It shows different models for how and when lockdowns were effectuated and released.

Hoe gaan we de pandemiepuzzel oplossen?

Hoe zijn we eigenlijk in deze ‘intelligente lockdown’ beland en, belangrijker nog, hoe komen we daar de komende maanden stap voor stap weer uit?

www.volkskrant.nl

I think nobody should count on vaccination, It could come 2 years from now or never.

I really hope Germany, Austria and Denmark start with easing the restrictions - hopefully others will follow (my country included).
Hopefully most of the people got the message in these past few weeks and will continue to follow the few simple rules in the future.

 

[trparky]

I think nobody should count on vaccination, It could come 2 years from now or never.

It will come but not as soon as many of us are hoping though. We have flu vaccines, there's no suggestions that we can't make a vaccine for this. Just be prepared for the idea that it will be more than a few months until it's ready.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Brazil likely has 12 times more coronavirus cases than official count, study finds

Brazil likely has 12 times more cases of the new coronavirus than are being officially reported by the government, with too little testing and long waits to confirm the results, according to a study released on Monday.

www.reuters.com

A (really long) comic about the problems of modeling COVID-19 spread/mortality:

A Comic Strip Tour Of The Wild World Of Pandemic Modeling

Check out all the latest coronavirus polling we’ve collected.

fivethirtyeight.com

It will come but not as soon as many of us are hoping though. We have flu vaccines, there's no suggestions that we can't make a vaccine for this. Just be prepared for the idea that it will be more than a few months until it's ready.

Influenza strikes every year. It's a good risk/reward investment with a lot of opportunities for trial and error. SARS-CoV-2? Not so much. By the time a vaccine shows promise, there may be enough global herd immunity that there's no longer a market for it.

Influenza vaccines are also only mildly effective. They attempt to predict what genotype will become dominate and create vaccines for that genotype. Bad years are when they guess wrong (like this flu season). Good years are when they guess right.

Influenza has been around as long as homo sapiens have. SARS-CoV-2 isn't even a year old.

There may never be a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Be ready for that possibility.

Edit: Vaccines available today took 10-15 years to develop:

Vaccine Development, Testing, and Regulation

Systems for developing and testing vaccines emerged after the 19th century, when many vaccines began to be used. The current system for developing, testing, and regulating vaccines developed during the 20th century as the groups involved standardized their procedures and regulations.

www.historyofvaccines.org

 

[sepheronx]

Brazil likely has 12 times more coronavirus cases than official count, study finds

Brazil likely has 12 times more cases of the new coronavirus than are being officially reported by the government, with too little testing and long waits to confirm the results, according to a study released on Monday.

www.reuters.com

A (really long) comic about the problems of modeling COVID-19 spread/mortality:

A Comic Strip Tour Of The Wild World Of Pandemic Modeling

Check out all the latest coronavirus polling we’ve collected.

fivethirtyeight.com

Influenza strikes every year. It's a good risk/reward investment with a lot of opportunities for trial and error. SARS-CoV-2? Not so much. By the time a vaccine shows promise, there may be enough global herd immunity that there's no longer a market for it.

Influenza vaccines are also only mildly effective. They attempt to predict what genotype will become dominate and create vaccines for that genotype. Bad years are when they guess wrong (like this flu season). Good years are when they guess right.

Influenza has been around as long as homo sapiens have. SARS-CoV-2 isn't even a year old.

There may never be a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Be ready for that possibility.

Edit: Vaccines available today took 10-15 years to develop:

Vaccine Development, Testing, and Regulation

Systems for developing and testing vaccines emerged after the 19th century, when many vaccines began to be used. The current system for developing, testing, and regulating vaccines developed during the 20th century as the groups involved standardized their procedures and regulations.

www.historyofvaccines.org

Many are testing possible vaccines in coming months (June from one university I read). I wouldnt be so quick to say never. Maybe I'm an optimist.

 

[Gmr_Chick]

Many are testing possible vaccines in coming months (June from one university I read). I wouldnt be so quick to say never. Maybe I'm an optimist.

No, you're actually correct about that. Even as we speak, there are various trials taking place around the world testing potential treatments for COVID-19. And a vaccine is already been fast tracked. Normally, a great deal of testing and trials have to be conducted before getting FDA approval. The whole process takes years (things go wrong, etc.). But there are reports that a vaccine for COVID-19 could come within a year if results are promising and side effects are minimal.

https://time.com/5819887/coronavirus-vaccines-development-who/

From the article it says, "Progress is occurring at unprecedented speed in developing vaccines as the infectious pathogen looks unlikely to be stamped out through containment measures alone. The drug industry is hoping to compress the time it takes to get a vaccine to market — usually about 10 to 15 years — to within the next year."

 

[erocker]

With the amount of money on the line, they'll definitely be fast tracking vaccines. They'll get here pretty quickly though that doesn't mean I'm optimistic about how well they'll work.

 

[sepheronx]

No, you're actually correct about that. Even as we speak, there are various trials taking place around the world testing potential treatments for COVID-19. And a vaccine is already been fast tracked. Normally, a great deal of testing and trials have to be conducted before getting FDA approval. The whole process takes years (things go wrong, etc.). But there are reports that a vaccine for COVID-19 could come within a year if results are promising and side effects are minimal.

https://time.com/5819887/coronavirus-vaccines-development-who/

From the article it says, "Progress is occurring at unprecedented speed in developing vaccines as the infectious pathogen looks unlikely to be stamped out through containment measures alone. The drug industry is hoping to compress the time it takes to get a vaccine to market — usually about 10 to 15 years — to within the next year."

Someone who I talk with in my grandparents home country works close in the medical field. They are testing right now but didn't specify how. He mentioned though testing on people voluntarily will begin in June. So I keep my hopes up. Thank you for link.