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Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

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With the amount of money on the line, they'll definitely be fast tracking vaccines. They'll get here pretty quickly though that doesn't mean I'm optimistic about how well they'll work.
Yeah, the fear is that whatever is thrown out there initially may only partially solve the problem, meanwhile Tatty will sit at home with his Paracetamol and Whiskey and try to ride it out, not convinced about this herd immunity thing either, there appears to be verified cases of a few that have caught it twice (Japan, Taiwan I think), the "guess" is that the first time it battered some's immune system so hard that 4 - 6 weeks later there was just not enough antibody strength to fight effectively a new attack, if that were the case it may well be that the herd thing does work providing immune systems have enough time to recover sufficiently, whatever sufficiently is for each individual...…. at this point just speculation.
 
Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-04-14 13-55-09.png

- 17448 confirmed infected --- 514 more
- 347 recovered --- 70 more
- 567 fatalities --- 32 more
- 142514 suspected cases --- 3330 more
- 182707 tests taken --- 19091 more
- 2474 waiting for test results --- 790 less
- 23265 under watch from authorities --- 3274 less
- 1227 hospitalized --- 40 more
- 218 in ICU --- 30 more

Low number of new cases plus significant decrease in number of those in ICU: hope it's a trend ...

It wasn't a trend :(

Something wrong with tests taken number because there's a great deal of inconsistency: yesterday with under 1K increase and today with over 19K increase. Still, the number of those waiting for test results has been dropping consistently.

Our Finance Minister is estimating a trimester drop in GDP of roughly 20%, corresponding to a 6.5% year drop in GDP, and that's assuming a "good scenario" and ease of restrictions soon. FMI isn't "as optimistic" regarding our year GDP drop, with 8%.
 
Japan has officially lost it, they're forced to ramp up countermeasures:

New map that will drill down to county level for US...

Change to "Confirmed by Population" at the bottom. That's where they're failing to contain it. Southern Georgia is a surprise. I think it was caused by this event:
Because they're not very population dense and because those infected were asymptomatic, it spread far and wide before anyone realized there was an outbreak.


The county close to me, Sioux Falls, has a similar story: outbreak at a food processing plant and no one knew:

There's a hotspot that stands out like a sore thumb in Kansas: Coffey county. Why? Nursing home outbreak (responsible for at least 24 or 41 cases to date):

Tiny lapses in quarantine and all hell breaks loose. :(
 
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Japan has officially lost it, they're forced to ramp up countermeasures:
With only 8100 confirmed infections and 146 confirmed fatalities, 400,000 projected deaths is just a wee bit of an over-estimation and over-reaction...
 
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Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-04-15 13-01-32.png

- 18091 confirmed infected --- 643 more
- 383 recovered --- 36 more
- 599 fatalities --- 32 more
- 150804 suspected cases --- 8290 more
- 191680 tests taken --- 8973 more
- 4060 waiting for test results --- 1586 more
- 26144 under watch from authorities --- 2879 more
- 1200 hospitalized --- 27 less
- 208 in ICU --- 10 less

The number of cases in Portugal continue to rise but the curve doesn't seem to be exponential, which is the only good thing i can say about it.
 
Any curve flattening is progress, we're seeing hospitalized counts go down now and deaths only a very mild decline. It plateaud clearly, hopefully the downward trend holds.

Though all info so far does look grim, in the sense that this will be with us for a looong time if not indefinitely. It just pops right back up once people get together again... not pretty.

Death count NL
1586974244756.png


IC count:
1586974276164.png
 
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UK update 15 April:


Daily15,994 Tests 4,605 Positive 761 Deaths
Total398,91698,47612,868
 
Crazy. That paper is already massively outdated for stats--which says a lot about the virus. It says 1/2 million cases.... it's now 2 million. 60k deaths is now 126,000. Thats in about two-three weeks. This virus is way more problematic than many people had suggested. In the UK, it now accounts for 1 in 5 deaths. That's absolutely enormous.
 
A little update from Denmark.

Tuesday this week, government officially begins to retract restrictions. Schools from 0 to 5 class has reopened today some later in this week also health care has so much headroom that normal operation will start up again that has else been shut down to insure enough capacity to covid-19 patients and the virus has so low infected people and health care is so low on critical patients, that we can open up more than just schools and normal health care already. What to open more I first know by tomorrow throw.

For those that know what RO is when we talk about virus. Here are numbers from Denmark. Before lock down RO whas 2.4 means for every person infected, this person infected 2.4 other people. Today I am happy to say that thanks to Danish government reasonable quick response to lock down and most people taking it seriously and good at keeping distance, RO are now 0.6 and below 1, the virus will die out eventually. According to danish serums Institute even with the reopen of school's and some other things I don't know yet, they believe RO can still be keept around 0.8 as long we still keep distance. So even with reopen, we shut over time see virus die out. How long that will take i don't know. Also there are a rist that the virus will go over RO 1 and we might have to put in some restrictions again. Only time can tell how it will end.

But so far it's looking good for Denmark against the virus. So the virus has peaked 2-3 weeks before originally believed and not only that it is also at a much lower rate of infected and we can already now open up for more much sooner that expected and even some danish doctors are very surprised by the outcome so far.

Infected people in total including dead and recovered are 6680.
Dead are 309.
Recovered are 2748
People in critical condition including in respirator are down to only 89 and far from health care max capacity.

It goes so well that I am hornestly more concerned about how much danish economy is hurt by the virus. Also how much the rest of the world's economy is hurt.
 
A in-depth look at how the virus spread in China (two cases of "superspeaders" and how the virus progressed from province to province):

One person, who got it from someone without any symptoms, started a chain reaction infecting 560 people:
Another well known cluster was linked to Mr. Wu, a 74-year-old resident of Dongyang in the eastern province of Zhejiang, who began having regular contact from Jan. 16 with an unidentified individual who had recently returned home from Wuhan but would later be confirmed an asymptomatic carrier.

Before his symptoms appeared on Jan. 22, Mr. Wu rode several buses and met a wide range of people.

He also is thought to have spread the disease while in an unquarantined hospital ward, days before doctors suspected he had the virus.

Mr. Wu is thought to have infected at least 8 people, many of his own family among them, beginning a cluster of 560 people quarantined at home and in centralised institutions.
He infected his wife, his daughter (whom infected her son), his sister, and his brother in law (whom infected their son).
 
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Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-04-16 12-58-59.png

- 18841 confirmed infected --- 750 more
- 493 recovered --- 110 more
- 629 fatalities --- 30 more
- 154727 suspected cases --- 3923 more
- 208314 tests taken --- 16634 more
- 3910 waiting for test results --- 150 less
- 26065 under watch from authorities --- 79 less
- 1302 hospitalized --- 102 more
- 229 in ICU --- 21 more

A decent jump in the number of recovered: only good news of the day :(
 
UK update 16th April

I suppose the good news is, Critical care is nowhere near capacity, infection rates are down and finally we are below R1 which for those that don't know means that the average person to person spread is below 1 infection per infected person, we started in the early stages at 3, went into lockdown when that rose to 5 so it shows that Lockdown is/has worked although it has also been announced today that we will remain in lockdown for a further 3 weeks. Death rates sadly can take up to 5 days to catch up and therefore slow significantly.

Daily18,665 tests13,839 people tested (does not include re-tests)4,618 tested positive861 deaths
Total417,649327,608103,09313,729
 
Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-04-17 12-53-45.png

- 19022 confirmed infected --- 181 more
- 519 recovered --- 26 more
- 657 fatalities --- 28 more
- 158940 suspected cases --- 4213 more
- 221049 tests taken --- 12735 more
- 4805 waiting for test results --- 895 more
- 25456 under watch from authorities --- 609 less
- 1284 hospitalized --- 18 less
- 222 in ICU --- 7 less

On one side there have been few new cases but on the other there are a lot more of those waiting for test results, which could easily flip today's good result tomorrow ...

EDIT

Our President and Parliament have approved an extension of emergency state for another 15 days. It's also being considered modifying our army reserve status to account for the possibility of it having to be enforced.

On a "not so good note", our Government will celebrate April 25th (Portugal's Liberty Day) by having a reduced parliamentary session, when compared to usual standards (in 2019, there were roughly 700 people attending): there will be 130 people in the event, between government officials and guests, including our former Presidents (all within the age group more susceptible to COVID-19).

Many people are outraged by this decision, not because of the celebration itself but because of the way it's being planed ...
 
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Ohio looks to loosen restrictions 5/1.


sadly, micro data wont be helpful as we'll see spikes even on the way down. Its just the way this reporting works. Some days you'll get more datasets from rural counties versus urban than typical (there are many reasons, that is just one). The trend continuing is of course the important part.
 
From Denmark update:

Total infected: 7073 all dead and recovered included
Recovered: 3389
Dead: 336
Hospitalized: 350
Critical: 93 where 74 of them being in respirator.

Now for the good news. As said before Denmark open up more than first planed in the first phase of reopen the country and now I know more. Besides schools and more normalizing of health care. There are barbarshops, dentists, massage clinics, driving teachers and private hospitals are among those that are alowed to reopen for business again. The list is much longer, but it will be a long list to take them all here.

However restaurants, fitness, libraries and so on are still to remain lock down. But I think the government has already opened up a desent amount of business.

Now I just hope we don't get a to large fall back and have to close down again.

How are people in USA coping up, it seems us are now the hardest hit continent?

Also nearly 22 mio unemploymed, that's madness. This really taking a toll on us economy, if I am to believe youtubers at least. People saying usa systems are falling apart cause of dedt and high unemployment and so on. But maybe these youtubers are just doomsday guys or do this forums people believe they are right, like this guy here.


What ever us economy is so hard hit or not, at least Trump has beginning to open up usa as well. That shut be good for us economy.

Not that Denmark are going free either. I lost my job in marts and we now have increased unemployment by around 44000 people caused by lock down to a total of 176000. It had been mush higher if the government had not taken measures in use like companies getting up to 90 % of employees paycheck covered by government and some other benefits, government counting on this helps around 100000 people to keep there job until we are over the virus. We are around 5.8 mio people in Denmark where around half is workfoce, rest is children, pensioners, people not able to work and so on.
 
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Not a geopolitical map but a list of drugs being tested against COVID-19, their status, and expected answers on effectiveness:


Working on vaccines:
Moderna/NIAID
Novavax
Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute
Murdoch Children's Research Institute; UMC Utrecht
Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI)
CanSino Biological Inc./Beijing Institute of Biotechnology
University of Oxford




Time for an update of USA using the same source for data.

April 17:
apr17.png


March 29:
untitled-png.149753


March 24:
untitled-png.149152
 
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Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-04-17 12-53-45.png Screenshot from 2020-04-18 12-38-16.png

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers:

- 91 more recovered
- 30 more deaths
- 663 more infected cases confirmed
- 31 less people hospitalized but 6 more in ICU
- over 14.8K tests conducted but over 5.1K still have their results pending
- no change in the number of cases under watch from authorities
 
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