Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[stuartb04]

living in Bristol (uk) we have been quite fortunate in this pandemic. just under 600 i believe
i expect the figure is alot higher than whats been recorded as tests are being done for key workers and the most severe patients.

My stepson has had the virus for the last 8 days. he has had moderate symptoms but he has been really bad..still is.
My partner is a key worker so we have been tested 2 days ago at bristol airport.
what is strange is that she has been tested positive and my stepson tested negative. im still waiting for my results. but pretty sure i will be positive.
i know the tests are only 70% accurate but this is still bizarre.
both me and my partner have tight chests and shortness of breath now.

I think because cases in bristol are quite low so people probably think its ok to go out.
fingers crossed we will only get mild symptoms....

stay safe people
and bloody stay home!!!

 

[robot zombie]

My stepson has had the virus for the last 8 days. he has had moderate symptoms but he has been really bad..still is.
My partner is a key worker so we have been tested 2 days ago at bristol airport.
what is strange is that she has been tested positive and my stepson tested negative. im still waiting for my results. but pretty sure i will be positive.
i know the tests are only 70% accurate but this is still bizarre.
both me and my partner have tight chests and shortness of breath now.

Well first of all be well. But that is interesting. I'm on the opposite end of that weirdness. The guy I work with most got what everyone kind of assumed would be covid, but it was never verified as being that. It hit him pretty rapidly, hard. Had all of the classic symptoms. The shortness of breath seemed rough, even on the phone, with him rushing sentences out to squeeze in shallow gulps of air. Just background wheeze the whole time, with terrible coughing spells. This man never gets sick like that. He's older but very healthy and active. Every time we've both caught the same thing, it got me nearly twice as bad as it got him. But he sounded like he was into the early phases of pneumonia... overnight. It was legitimately concerning because I know those sounds from when my dad had it so bad he was borderline suffocating (and sounded like it,) one step from the ER. Sounded quite the same. On day 5 his results came back negative. He said they did the nose test, the early one where they jam that big thing up and it's really unpleasant, not the dainty swab.

He stayed pretty sick that whole two weeks... I spent a good bit of time talking to him over the course of things, being on defacto quarantine myself. Everything that he was describing matched up and he had said it felt 'different,' like a combination of severe flu and walking pneumonia. He really had to stress that he couldn't wrap his head around it. We were all very worried for him - I believe he's 62. Anybody can sound sick on the phone. This dude was siiiiiick. He didn't really start getting better until a few days before his quarantine would be due up, either. He of course went back to the doctor before going back to work, but the doctor didn't want to test him. Gave him a check-up and said he was good to go.

But then, after getting the z-pak and I think some antibiotics he did improve. He said the doctor was very dismissive once the test came back negative, so I can only assume that whoever went over the results with him was very confident in the reliability. But then, they provided the standard relief for C-19, so who knows? Of course they're gonna give it to someone showing similar symptoms, even if they're negative. Realistically, it could've been anything, but with this C-19 miasma hanging over like it has, it all feels a little strange.

I was fine, even having worked closely with him long before that. Of course, they wouldn't test me, not having symptoms. I do wonder what the result might've been. Wouldn't that have been something? Guy with symptoms is negative, after being in contact with an asymptomatic guy who's positive. If I had it, what he was showing symptoms of might've been too. It should've been a pretty sure bet, honestly. It wouldn't have been avoidable. Could just have been one of those spooky coincidences, though. Jeez does that mess with my head though

I hope you all manage okay. Don't let the internet rot your brains, though. People keep saying 'thank god for all of us having the internet right now!' I say that sounds insane... locked in the house for 2 weeks online is nothing if that's what you do, but going from a more active life to that will shut half of your brain off in just that first week. Probably the best, actually usable advice I can give you is to find as many ways as possible to keep your mind hooked-in. I treated my time away like a reset button and since then I've been in a different frame of mind. It basically amounts to living very simply for a while, so if you have the important stuff squared away, it's a great opportunity to really stop and think, because pretty much all you can do is let go of everything - just break away.

This is probably the worst possible way for it to come about, but I think people might have needed to stop for a while and have a little self-humility check. It sucks being locked in, but I wonder why really, with the seriousness, people are still bent on resisting that, even when it's not about money. I half wonder if a few of them might not be able to process the idea of being home with themselves for a prolonged period. A lot of people go years without that even being a part of their reality. So the idea doesn't make sense to them - something is wrong with that. The impulse to go out is a way of reconciling it. People may rationalize it after the fact, but I really think they just get up and go and don't think about it... even after collectively spending 33% of the day talking about C-19

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 24505 confirmed infected --- 183 more
- 1470 recovered --- 81 more
- 973 fatalities --- 25 more
- 243655 suspected cases --- 4590 more
- 379551 tests taken --- 19396 more
- 3825 waiting for test results --- 262 more
- 29568 under watch from authorities --- 9 more
- 980 hospitalized --- 44 more
- 169 in ICU --- 3 less

The trend was broken

Though ICU number dropped, hospitalized number increased

 

[rtwjunkie]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

View attachment 153210 View attachment 153211

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 24505 confirmed infected --- 183 more
- 1470 recovered --- 81 more
- 973 fatalities --- 25 more
- 243655 suspected cases --- 4590 more
- 379551 tests taken --- 19396 more
- 3825 waiting for test results --- 262 more
- 29568 under watch from authorities --- 9 more
- 980 hospitalized --- 44 more
- 169 in ICU --- 3 less

The trend was broken

Though ICU number dropped, hospitalized number increased

There may be little spikes, but if overall you stay on the downward path, it’s good, basically 3 steps forward and only one backward.

 

[HTC]

There may be little spikes, but if overall you stay on the downward path, it’s good, basically 3 steps forward and only one backward.

Our total cases curve is getting flatter, on a logarithmic scale of 2 (click for full picture):



I made this graph earlier with the help of some TPU members.

By comparison, and using the data from Johns Hopkins University's link in OP, i just finished compiling the data for USA (click for full picture):



Obviously, there are significant differences, like the fact USA's 1st case was in January while Portugal's was in March, not to mention the demographic difference but the whole point is to show the curve and, while Portugal's is @ a low angle already, USA's is not quite there just yet.

It's visible Portugal's daily numbers are in a declining trend while USA's are almost flat. Don't forget the scale is logarithmic so, when daily cases drop by ONE horizontal line, that actually means they dropped by HALF.

 

[rtwjunkie]

April 29, 2020 for Louisiana. Update compares numbers to April 21st.

27,660 cases (19,253 on April 21st)
1,802 deaths (1,405 on April 21st)
1,629 hospitalized 1,798 on April 21st)
244 on ventilators (297 on April 21st)
158,568 tests have been conducted (141,657 on April 21st) -in a population of 4.6 million

17,303 Presumed recovered * New stat being tracked

This week, the state started tracking recovered numbers finally.

Also, Louisiana has definitely taken the testing mantra seriously. They expect to ramp the testing rate up significantly as well in the next month.

 

[Vayra86]

NL update. Downward trend

Meanwhile, people starting to think it is business as usual. We're probably going to have a little bump in our stats soon, is my prediction...

In other news, I read today that vaccination is well underway... some candidate that could potentially already launch in September...cautious optimism...

-57 IC beds in use

Hospitalizations

Death count

living in Bristol (uk) we have been quite fortunate in this pandemic. just under 600 i believe
i expect the figure is alot higher than whats been recorded as tests are being done for key workers and the most severe patients.

My stepson has had the virus for the last 8 days. he has had moderate symptoms but he has been really bad..still is.
My partner is a key worker so we have been tested 2 days ago at bristol airport.
what is strange is that she has been tested positive and my stepson tested negative. im still waiting for my results. but pretty sure i will be positive.
i know the tests are only 70% accurate but this is still bizarre.
both me and my partner have tight chests and shortness of breath now.

I think because cases in bristol are quite low so people probably think its ok to go out.
fingers crossed we will only get mild symptoms....

stay safe people
and bloody stay home!!!

You probably know, but I would suggest keeping a good eye on one another going forward and especially around day 7-12 if you happen to know when you might have caught it. Symptoms can take a turn for the worse at the 'end' of illness.

I wish you all the best.

Our total cases curve is getting flatter, on a logarithmic scale of 2 (click for full picture):

View attachment 153223

I made this graph earlier with the help of some TPU members.

By comparison, and using the data from Johns Hopkins University's link in OP, i just finished compiling the data for USA (click for full picture):

View attachment 153227

Obviously, there are significant differences, like the fact USA's 1st case was in January while Portugal's was in March, not to mention the demographic difference but the whole point is to show the curve and, while Portugal's is @ a low angle already, USA's is not quite there just yet.

It's visible Portugal's daily numbers are in a declining trend while USA's are almost flat. Don't forget the scale is logarithmic so, when daily cases drop by ONE horizontal line, that actually means they dropped by HALF.

Ha! Nice you got your log scale right

April 29, 2020 for Louisiana. Update compares numbers to April 21st.

27,660 cases (19,253 on April 21st)
1,802 deaths (1,405 on April 21st)
1,629 hospitalized 1,798 on April 21st)
2244 on ventilators (297 on April 21st)
158,568 tests have been conducted (141,657 on April 21st) -in a population of 4.6 million

17,303 Presumed recovered * New stat being tracked

This week, the state started tracking recovered numbers finally.

Also, Louisiana has definitely taken the testing mantra seriously. They expect to ramp the testing rate up significantly as well in the next month.

It really amazes me how the US states are each on their own handling this. Wondrous nation

This is probably the worst possible way for it to come about, but I think people might have needed to stop for a while and have a little self-humility check. It sucks being locked in, but I wonder why really, with the seriousness, people are still bent on resisting that, even when it's not about money. I half wonder if a few of them might not be able to process the idea of being home with themselves for a prolonged period. A lot of people go years without that even being a part of their reality. So the idea doesn't make sense to them - something is wrong with that. The impulse to go out is a way of reconciling it. People may rationalize it after the fact, but I really think they just get up and go and don't think about it... even after collectively spending 33% of the day talking about C-19

Very personal, that. You or I might not have the same response to a lockdown as your neighbour or others in the house. On a philosophical level I agree completely, people do need to stop and think every once in a while, and our society's rat race does not accomodate that at all. But still, its like getting up early in the morning right? If you're always getting up late, getting up early is a huge problem. If you always get up early, its the normal. I think the amount of activity and how outgoing people are, is similar to this. Its what you're used to, and adjustment in behaviour is very problematic for humans.

I think that might be everyone's lesson in self humility, especially in wealthy countries: "No, you don't always have or get what you want." It teaches us to be more flexible. And the next lesson is going to be that 'less is more', because simply enough, there will be less of everything when the economy suffers. Given our starting point of gross excess I don't really think that is a bad thing, the planet can use it.

 

[HTC]

Here's my current data on 5 countries, using what i learned about chart making in Linux and data from Johns Hopkins University's link in OP, as well as Portugal's site for the relevant info (click for full picture):



Each horizontal line represent a doubling of the previous one so, in USA VS Spain and Italy, those 2 horizontal lines of difference actually represent a quadrupling of cases.

The more horizontal the curve is getting, the better whatever measures that have been taken are having effect. In the particular case of Italy and Spain, it's noticeable how Italy's curve is a bit flatter than Spain's, even though their totals are quite similar.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

USA has little intention to stop the virus completely, instead, it aims to maintain. USA will probably see a third hump similar to the second.

 

[HTC]

USA has little intention to stop the virus completely, instead, it aims to maintain. USA will probably see a third hump similar to the second.

Compare UK's with USA's curve: it appears to me that USA's curve has a slightly lower angle than UK's so, according to this chart, USA is faring slightly better than UK.

Ofc this refers to reported infected cases and obviously depends on the testing per capita for more accuracy: the more testing is done, the better the accuracy.

 

[Vayra86]

USA has little intention to stop the virus completely, instead, it aims to maintain. USA will probably see a third hump similar to the second.

Any country saying it does, is lying to itself and its citizens. You won't stop this anyway. You will delay it, at best. So, the US also doesn't really 'aim to maintain'... does it? That's a nice one for politicians but in the real world there is simply a problem that requires constant attention and adjustment until we can vaccinate.

As for the curves... I think the differences have everything to do with distance and demography. Distance will delay the spread and many elderly will increase death count.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Compare UK's with USA's curve: it appears to me that USA's curve has a slightly lower angle than UK's so, according to this chart, USA is faring slightly better than UK.

Ofc this refers to reported infected cases and obviously depends on the testing per capita for more accuracy: the more testing is done, the better the accuracy.

The strange thing is the UK now for a straight 10 days has significantly lowered day on day infection rates, hospitalisations, ITU beds and a little more recently deaths, what is strange is we have quadrupled testing in those 10 days which normally would mean the figures or at least some of them should increase, yesterday we had a "blip" with the death rates but we have that every week on a Wednesday because reporting seems to go to sleep a little over the weekends so Monday and Tuesday's figures tend to be low for deaths (300-400) and then Wednesday they catch up with reporting (700+) and then numbers are down again day on day until the following week.

If you look at the fatality count therefore by week to compensate for this erratic reporting you see we are clearly beyond peak and are just now moving beyond plateau into that downward curve that I have been desperately waiting for this last 2 weeks. We are also reporting now ALL deaths, not sure everyone's figures include deaths from private residencies, care homes, hospices etc...… it does not make easy reading but for the first time in 2+ weeks I have some confidence we are getting there, already some people are screaming for the lockdown to be relaxed, mainly fuelled by the media, I say shut up and carry on as we are for at least a couple more weeks, we are in week 6 of lockdown now, I would rather not be infected than go to Starbucks for a Latte ..... stay safe, stay kind.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Any country saying it does, is lying to itself and its citizens. You won't stop this anyway. You will delay it, at best. So, the US also doesn't really 'aim to maintain'... does it? That's a nice one for politicians but in the real world there is simply a problem that requires constant attention and adjustment until we can vaccinate.

As for the curves... I think the differences have everything to do with distance and demography. Distance will delay the spread and many elderly will increase death count.

I meant "aim to maintain" burden on healthcare system, not cases. Cases can only go one direction: up. In a city like NYC, they must maintain the status quo because the healthcare system can't handle more large outbreaks. In a place why rural Nebraska, they'll tell people to get back to work because it's almost like COVID-19 doesn't even exist there (cases few and far between). If there's an outbreak, local leaders will have to pull back again.

There needs to be a push because of economic pressures and a pull because of healthcare pressures that require balancing. That cannot and will not happen at the federal level. State level has it's own pressure in terms of capability to test for SARS-CoV-2 (feeds into healthcare pressure).

 

[HTC]

The strange thing is the UK now for a straight 10 days has significantly lowered day on day infection rates, hospitalisations, ITU beds and a little more recently deaths, what is strange is we have quadrupled testing in those 10 days which normally would mean the figures or at least some of them should increase, yesterday we had a "blip" with the death rates but we have that every week on a Wednesday because reporting seems to go to sleep a little over the weekends so Monday and Tuesday's figures tend to be low for deaths (300-400) and then Wednesday they catch up with reporting (700+) and then numbers are down again day on day until the following week.

If you look at the fatality count therefore by week to compensate for this erratic reporting you see we are clearly beyond peak and are just now moving beyond plateau into that downward curve that I have been desperately waiting for this last 2 weeks. We are also reporting now ALL deaths, not sure everyone's figures include deaths from private residencies, care homes, hospices etc...… it does not make easy reading but for the first time in 2+ weeks I have some confidence we are getting there, already some people are screaming for the lockdown to be relaxed, mainly fuelled by the media, I say shut up and carry on as we are for at least a couple more weeks, we are in week 6 of lockdown now, I would rather not be infected than go to Starbucks for a Latte ..... stay safe, stay kind.

And that's why, as testing ramps up, so does the accuracy of the graphs.

Of the 5 countries in the graph, UK is the one with the worst curve, albeit with USA's quite close, IMO. I do however plan to add more countries like, Sweden, South Korea, Germany, and others.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Maybe a little premature but I suppose in the current climate you have to make significant preparation (and risks) if you want to mass produce enough vaccine for our friends the world

UK researchers should know by July if coronavirus vaccine is effective

Pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca has partnered with Oxford University to help develop and distribute the vaccine being researched by the Jenner Institute and Oxford Vaccine Group.

www.cnbc.com

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25045 confirmed infected --- 540 more
- 1519 recovered --- 49 more
- 989 fatalities --- 16 more
- 247685 suspected cases --- 4030 more
- 395771 tests taken --- 16220 more
- 3794 waiting for test results --- 31 less
- 29467 under watch from authorities --- 101 less
- 968 hospitalized --- 12 less
- 172 in ICU --- 3 more

ICU cases number broke an 11 day down streak but, considering it was only by 3, it's not that bad.

I have no way of knowing how many of the 16220 tests taken since yesterday + yesterday's "waiting for test results" - today's "waiting for test results" are of different individuals but, considering there were only 540 more cases added to our infected totals, i'd say that number is not that bad either, even though today's increase was more than double, VS yesterday.

EDIT

Added several countries to my chart data (click for full picture):




The chart now only starts showing from 40+ cases, thus removing the showing of countries' initial data that skews the viewing, as evidenced in the original graph posted here.


As before, each horizontal line signifies a doubling of cases VS the previous line so, and as an example, the roughly 3 lines difference between New Zealand and South Korea mean a difference of roughly 8 times in number of cases.

The 1st thing we can observe is how near horizontal both South Korea and New Zealand curves are: when they talk about "flatten the curve", they really mean it.

The 2nd thing is that it appears UK's curve continues to edge out USA as well as Sweden's for the unwanted title of "worst curve of the chart".

 

[Tomgang]

Danish "haandsprit" is translated to Danish hand sanitizer.

Update from Denmark. Some of you are properly curies how it goes for a country now after two weeks of opening up. Bad news is RO has gone up from 0.6 before open up to 0.9 so virus is still under control. But it does set a limit to how much we can open up in phase two, but in return we cut open up for more in phase 1 than exspected.

Saturday last weeks numbers.
Todays numbers:
Total infected cases: 8,445
Recovered: 5,669
Total hospitalized: 285
Critical condition: 70 where 56 are in respirator
Total Dead since first dead whas confirmed in early marts: 418
Total active cases: 2358

Todays numbers
Total infected cases: 9311
Recovered: 6729
Total hospitalized: 249
Critical condition: 61 where 44 are in respirator
Total Dead since first dead whas confirmed in early marts: 460
Total active cases: 2122

So in short, even after opening up. Number are still going down. Total cases as well as hospitalized after two weeks of opening up. Danish goverment are preparing to phase 2 opening and will come out with more info about next week. So it is still going the right way

Fight the virus, we do it in Denmark. Numbers shows it is possible, so keep social distance going while opening up, it does work. oh and i maybe have a new job on my hands, i hope. Has been to an employment meating at a company and hope to get answer next week.

 

[EarthDog]

What is "RO"?

What will be most telling is AFTER two weeks... it can take 2 weeks to show symptoms. Up until that point, you are generally still seeing the effects of the lockdowns. The 2-4 weeks from now will be telling. Here is to hoping that trend remains!

 

[Tomgang]

What is "RO"?

What will be most telling is AFTER two weeks... it can take 2 weeks to show symptoms. Up until that point, you are generally still seeing the effects of the lockdowns. The 2-4 weeks from now will be telling. Here is to hoping that trend remains!

RO or R naught is a medical measurement for how infections a virus or disease is. RO below 1 the virus is considered under control and dying out on its own. Above 1 the virus is not considered under control and still spreading among people faster than it dies out. So basic If RO is 2.4 means one infected person infected 2.4 other people while if ro is under 1 an infected person infect lest than one person and the virus shut die out over time. That is why it is so important to keep distance to keep to below 1.

Mere here about it:

What Is R0? Gauging Contagious Infections

R0 indicates how contagious a disease is. Learn how it works and the R0 values for various diseases.

www.healthline.com

We have been under lock down for 6 weeks now and started to re open 2 weeks ago as some of the first countries to do so. So far its very promising for phase 2 opening up.

 

[Tatty_Two]

This is an interesting document produced by the CDC, whilst their approach is a little different than the R0 principles most of Europe are following, the end product is the same, there are predictions on increasing death rates based on contact reductions through restrictive measures, they are estimating death growths based on these contact reduction models, so even with restrictions remaining in place in the US the amount of continued deaths predicted are considerable dependant on model, less so with some.... whilst obviously this applies to the US, it is relative in terms of trajectory for anyone else in or coming out of a lockdown.

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

 

[FordGT90Concept]

The last places on earth without coronavirus

Despite infecting more than 3 million people around the world, there are still 30 countries and territories that are yet to report a single case of coronavirus.

graphics.reuters.com

There are 30 UN recognized countries/territories without a COVID-19 case. All of them are tiny islands...except North Korea.

This is an interesting document produced by the CDC, whilst their approach is a little different than the R0 principles most of Europe are following, the end product is the same, there are predictions on increasing death rates based on contact reductions through restrictive measures, they are estimating death growths based on these contact reduction models, so even with restrictions remaining in place in the US the amount of continued deaths predicted are considerable dependant on model, less so with some.... whilst obviously this applies to the US, it is relative in terms of trajectory for anyone else in or coming out of a lockdown.

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

The graph is a week old. Based on where deaths are at now, it's tracking about center of that cluster (just above the aqua-colored line).

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25351 confirmed infected --- 306 more
- 1647 recovered --- 128 more
- 1007 fatalities --- 18 more
- 251269 suspected cases --- 3584 more
- 409961 tests taken --- 14190 more
- 3828 waiting for test results --- 34 more
- 29756 under watch from authorities --- 289 more
- 892 hospitalized --- 76 less
- 154 in ICU --- 18 less

We crossed the unwanted milestone of 1000 deaths

On a brighter note, hospitalized number dropped significantly and ICU's number drop is "nothing to sneeze @".

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's my current graph of total infected from 13 countries, updated up to 30-04-2020 (click for full picture):



I don't plan to add any other countries to this chart but i'll leave in attach the current file from which i made the chart (had to Zip it because TPU doesn't accept LibreOfficeCalc files). Most of the data is taken from OP's Johns Hopkins University link but i resorted to WorldoMeter's data for Denmark's and Portugal's official site for Portugal's data. There's also some inconsistency with Spain's totals because, since yesterday, Spain "lost" over 26K infected cases, which i didn't reflect in my chart.

I've set it up with the formula's in place up to 18-06-2020 so that, should anyone add more day's data to it, all they have to do for it to show in the graph is change the X-axis date range to the last day of the inputted data and it will re-do the chart automatically.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Turkmenistan has or is declaring zero cases also, it's quite a large country roughly the size of the UK albeit with a small population of just under 6 million, it apparently closed all it's borders and airports late Jan early Feb, to be honest I wouldn't think they have a lot of air traffic in any case, we stopped off to refuel there on our way back to the UK after our Afghanistan tour...… very odd place in so much it was like stepping back into the 60's/70's cold war Eastern Europe.

 

[EarthDog]

So far its very promising for phase 2 opening up.

I hope your optimism is true. As was said, you really cant start measuring if things are working/better until 2+ weeks after lockdown or after it was raised... from this point forward is when you should see a change.

Fingers crossed!

 

[rtwjunkie]

Well, Louisiana has opted for no changes in its stay at home stance, and today we had one of the biggest increases in a long while/ 710 new infections. I’ll have to update all numbers in a bit.