Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[FordGT90Concept]

Qatar (498) passed up Spain (492) for cases per 100k people. Belgium is still #1 for deaths (66) per 100k people.

 

[EarthDog]

Well, Louisiana has opted for no changes in its stay at home stance, and today we had one of the biggest increases in a long while/ 710 new infections. I’ll have to update all numbers in a bit.

Remember, there are tons of other factors that go into and there will always be anomalous spikes and dips. It's the overall trends that are important.

 

[rtwjunkie]

Remember, there are tons of other factors that go into and there will always be anomalous spikes and dips. It's the overall trends that are important.

True enough. Just thought I would mention it as an anomaly officials weren't expecting.

May 1, 2020 for Louisiana. Update compares numbers to April 21st.

28,711 cases (27,660 on April 29th)
1,802 deaths (1,802on April 29th)
1,607 hospitalized 1,629 on April 29th)
230 on ventilators (244 on April 29th)
168,251 tests have been conducted (158,568 on April 29th) -in a population of 4.6 million

17,303 Presumed recovered (17,303 on April 29th) _presumably this is only being updated weekly

Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.

ldh.la.gov

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Qatar (498) passed up Spain (492) for cases per 100k people. Belgium is still #1 for deaths (66) per 100k people.

Spain (now 499) passed Qatar up.

 

[Gmr_Chick]

View attachment 153435Danish "haandsprit" is translated to Danish hand sanitizer.

Update from Denmark. Some of you are properly curies how it goes for a country now after two weeks of opening up. Bad news is RO has gone up from 0.6 before open up to 0.9 so virus is still under control. But it does set a limit to how much we can open up in phase two, but in return we cut open up for more in phase 1 than exspected.

Saturday last weeks numbers.
Todays numbers:
Total infected cases: 8,445
Recovered: 5,669
Total hospitalized: 285
Critical condition: 70 where 56 are in respirator
Total Dead since first dead whas confirmed in early marts: 418
Total active cases: 2358

Todays numbers
Total infected cases: 9311
Recovered: 6729
Total hospitalized: 249
Critical condition: 61 where 44 are in respirator
Total Dead since first dead whas confirmed in early marts: 460
Total active cases: 2122

So in short, even after opening up. Number are still going down. Total cases as well as hospitalized after two weeks of opening up. Danish goverment are preparing to phase 2 opening and will come out with more info about next week. So it is still going the right way

Fight the virus, we do it in Denmark. Numbers shows it is possible, so keep social distance going while opening up, it does work. oh and i maybe have a new job on my hands, i hope. Has been to an employment meating at a company and hope to get answer next week.

Unfortunately, here in the US some disgruntled idiots care more about exercising their "civil liberties" and refusing to comply with their state protocol than they do about the virus and the country's continued rise in both cases and deaths. Our "president" also doesn't care, neither do certain states' governors. I will say this about my state: For as overcrowded and expensive it is, at least our governor has a good head on his shoulders.

Sadly though, as a country, I don't see our situation improving much. There's only so much each state can do by themselves. It's absolutely crazy just how non-existent support from the US government has been during this pandemic. I get that the whole GOP motto is "less government is better!" but this is ridiculous!

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Almost all of the bad outbreaks around me are centered on meat packers. Sioux Falls has ridiculously high number of cases because of the Smithfield packer there. Tyson's Waterloo packer is closed indefinitely and on the same day a similar breakout was clustered around a packer in Tennessee. Meat is already in short supply and it's guaranteed to get worse:

Where's the beef ... and the chicken: Should we worry about a meat shortage?

As the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on the economy, it could impact Americans' ability to find and pay for meat.

www.usatoday.com

Trump used the Defense Production Act to order packers to stay open but, as stated with Tyson, you can't just have an infectious agent present and continue running the facility. It needs to be scrubbed down from top to bottom with new employees being trained to replace those are out sick.

TL;DR: the fundamentals of the economy are fracturing. Without them, there's panic. With panic, there's chaos. With chaos, governance collapses.

The "president" is stuck between voters tired of isolation, health officials saying the quarantine is necessary, and the fact that things people need don't materialize out of thin air. Black and white approach won't work anymore. It needs to be shades of gray which about 1/3 of the states are voluntarily doing.


There's only two ways this ends:
1) herd immunity which requires infections
2) vaccination which won't be ready until next year at the absolute earliest

There is a third way that no one wants:
3) economic collapse and every man is for himself, the impact of the virus at that point is an afterthought

TL;DR: TL;DR: The status quo is a recipe for ruin.

 

[Vayra86]

Almost all of the bad outbreaks around me are centered on meat packers. Sioux Falls has ridiculously high number of cases because of the Smithfield packer there. South Sioux City has a Tyson packer which has been forced to shutter for four days because of COVID outbreak and the cases there are feeding into relatively high incidence rate in Sioux City (50 hospitalizations as of yesterday). Meat is already in short supply and it's guaranteed to get worse:

Where's the beef ... and the chicken: Should we worry about a meat shortage?

As the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on the economy, it could impact Americans' ability to find and pay for meat.

www.usatoday.com

Trump used the Defense Production Act to order packers to stay open but, as stated with Tyson, you can't just have an infectious agent present and continue running the facility. It needs to be scrubbed down from top to bottom with new employees being trained to replace those are out sick.

TL;DR: the fundamentals of the economy are fracturing. Without them, there's panic. With panic, there's chaos. With chaos, governance collapses.

The "president" is stuck between voters tired of isolation and health officials saying the quarantine is necessary. Black and white approach won't work anymore. It needs to be shades of gray which about 1/3 of the states are voluntarily doing.


There's only two ways this ends:
1) herd immunity which requires infections
2) vaccination which won't be ready until next year at the absolute earliest

There is a third way that no one wants:
3) economic collapse and every man is for himself, the impact of the virus at this point is an afterthought

1) is already out the door, people who caught it are still not immune shortly after. Its a seasonal virus like the flu in that sense. You're never immune for that long. And with the high infection rate, the periodic immunity/resistance is not going to benefit us in any way as systems are overburdened long before someone 'catches it again' in the same season.

The only approach pre vaccination, is accepting a certain death rate, refining and reconsidering our stance on what life is preserved and when - an nearly impossible discussion and one we should have had years ago to be timely. The alternative to that, born out of necessity, is social distancing. Which works, but also really doesn't in every other way. Society is full of situations, jobs, areas where this is impossible unless you're going around in a space suit. There are also massive psychological and social implications. It might damage us mentally and the effect can easily be worse than the virus itself.

This is also, I think, the basis under much of the opposition against lockdowns. The virus hits risk groups that are unlikely to provide any benefit to the same economy we are putting on hold 'for them'. Its not just for them, of course, but that is an indirect problem we have yet to encounter. In that sense it really already is every man for himself, despite the community efforts.

As for the economical systems fracturing... perhaps, perhaps its a good thing. The way and means we use to preserve our way of life are damaging. Meat being one of the primary contributors. (and I LOVE my steak...)

Unfortunately, here in the US some disgruntled idiots care more about exercising their "civil liberties" and refusing to comply with their state protocol than they do about the virus and the country's continued rise in both cases and deaths. Our "president" also doesn't care, neither do certain states' governors. I will say this about my state: For as overcrowded and expensive it is, at least our governor has a good head on his shoulders.

Sadly though, as a country, I don't see our situation improving much. There's only so much each state can do by themselves. It's absolutely crazy just how non-existent support from the US government has been during this pandemic. I get that the whole GOP motto is "less government is better!" but this is ridiculous!

Less government, and yet gov spending always goes up. Anyone saying less about his own job is lying

 

[Tomgang]

Unfortunately, here in the US some disgruntled idiots care more about exercising their "civil liberties" and refusing to comply with their state protocol than they do about the virus and the country's continued rise in both cases and deaths. Our "president" also doesn't care, neither do certain states' governors. I will say this about my state: For as overcrowded and expensive it is, at least our governor has a good head on his shoulders.

Sadly though, as a country, I don't see our situation improving much. There's only so much each state can do by themselves. It's absolutely crazy just how non-existent support from the US government has been during this pandemic. I get that the whole GOP motto is "less government is better!" but this is ridiculous!

There are a few in Denmark as well that act totally stupid. They are not keeping the proper distance and gather I large groups as well. Really stupid, but at least police has taken measures in hand as giving tickets to those that just can't keep there distance or stay away from larger groups. Max group size allowed in Denmark so far is 10 people per group. There are all ways a few people that totally on perpose chose to only follow there own rules.

Take the anti-vaxxer's, I really don't get them. When we have a proper vaccine, I am definitely going to get one. The more that get one, the sooner the virus will be less a thread.

I have seen the demonstration that is happening in the US. I can understand people want to get back to job as money runs out. It seems US government has trouble following with giant unemployment in US so they are way behing with benefit checks and If I am correct, unemployed can only get these unemployment checks for 3-6 months depending on what state it is. In Denmark you can get these checks for up to two years normally, but at these times they have raise that time with 4 months so far and hope they will ake it longer cause this crisis seems to be a long one and jobs are incredibly rare and hard to get. All throw i might have managed to find a job, have been to a employment metting this week and will get a answer next week. So I hope this will bring me new job. But i can not say demonstrations not will happen in Denmark as well. Infact as this crisis goes on, more and more people will lose faith in there government and we will over time see increased civil disobedience and crime as people losing paintiense to government and getting desperate for money and food. I am specifically concerned for countries that are not rich. I have seen as well us food banks seems to be running out of food and stores as well. That is definitely a huge problem and will be meet with demonstration, more crime and angry desperate people trying to survive.

Danish government at least care about people so they have done things to prevent people losing there jobs and companies going bankrupt. Unfortunately they can't save every one. Some companies have locked forever and some jobs are lost permanently and more will come.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

1) is already out the door, people who caught it are still not immune shortly after. Its a seasonal virus like the flu in that sense. You're never immune for that long. And with the high infection rate, the periodic immunity/resistance is not going to benefit us in any way as systems are overburdened long before someone 'catches it again' in the same season.

See this post. TL;DR: Influenza anti-bodies start eliminating the virus within days usually. Coronaviruses take weeks. Influenza mutates extremely fast; coronaviruses do not. Both resources I found said that actual reinfection once the body creates "neutralizing antibodies" for the coronavirus is not possible.

Coronaviruses are evasive but they're not like HIV or influenza. Case in point: the H1N1 strain (aka Influenza A) that went around 2019-2020 was the exact same strain that caused an epidemic in 2009-2010. Herd immunity + vaccinations stopped it from getting as bad this time around because people that had it or were vaccinated wouldn't get it again.

 

[Tomgang]

I hope your optimism is true. As was said, you really cant start measuring if things are working/better until 2+ weeks after lockdown or after it was raised... from this point forward is when you should see a change.

Fingers crossed!

My optimism is real, but as I also said. I don't expect phase 2 will open up nearly as much as phase 1. Cause RO is already close to 1 one now and we need to keep that below 1. Phase 2 will be mostly about opening up the economy where infection is the least risk of increasing. So things like fitness is not going to open up.

This is second week of reopen. Next week when phase 2 is unveiled will be the third week after reopen and phase 2 will not start until week 4 after reopen. So there will be going 1 week more before we open up for more and maybe government decides to delay by two weeks. We really not know before when they unveil there plans.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

The COVID-19 testing challenge

Why it’s so hard to overcome testing shortages in the United States

graphics.reuters.com

USA did roughly 6 million tests and 1/6th of those came back positive.

USA ranks fairly low in terms of deaths despite having 1/3 of the infections in the world:

UK is already worse than Spain and Italy.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Problem is that many countries report very differently, so some only report deaths based on having been tested with a positive result, some only report deaths in hospitals (as they tend to all have tested positive if only on admission), I don't know why, perhaps it's because it is not absolutely certain Covid-19 was the root cause without the test, my understanding is that many countries follow this approach...…. until recently the UK only reported deaths in hospital, we now report all deaths, in hospital, in the home, in residential care settings and in Hospices, I don't think everyone does that.

You will also see that the UK has the worst recovery rate, that's because we don't record recovery rates, 90%+ of those infected stay at home, they will have had a test if they showed the symptoms and tested positive but the majority of them once recovered do not request or have the means until recently to get a 2nd test so there is an empty reporting space so to speak. We now test 100,000+ a day so do have the means for those 2nd tests for those infected at home but they still have to be requested.

one related example in death rate anomalies...……….

Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differ

In Italy, the death rate from Covid-19 is more than 10 times greater than in Germany. Why does the death rate vary so much internationally?

www.bbc.com

 

[ozkisses]

I read an article last week that said the UK is expecting triple the deaths than they had at the time.

The USA have a dismal recovery % compared to a lot of other countries. They also have a long way to go before they hit triple digit numbers per 24 hours. They will be in the triple digit daily for a while before they will be seeing some hope.

Very sad for all.

 

[Tatty_Two]

I read an article last week that said the UK is expecting triple the deaths than they had at the time.

The USA have a dismal recovery % compared to a lot of other countries. They also have a long way to go before they hit triple digit numbers per 24 hours. They will be in the triple digit daily for a while before they will be seeing some hope.

Very sad for all.

That was said to ward off the media pushing for a release of lockdown as a "worst case scenario" based on an immediate full release from restrictions.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

You will also see that the UK has the worst recovery rate, that's because we don't record recovery rates, 90%+ of those infected stay at home...

Same in United States.

We now test 100,000+ a day so do have the means for those 2nd tests for those infected at home but they still have to be requested.

Totals for the US

Daily totals for all metrics collected from January 2020 to the present.

covidtracking.com

200k-300k tests per day and states are now insisting more people get tested because doctors aren't ordering many so there's unused testing capacity.

The USA have a dismal recovery % compared to a lot of other countries.

Because USA doesn't keep track of recoveries other than people that were admitted and later released. People that have it mild are sent home and told to quarantine for 14 days. They're never reported anywhere as "recovered."

They also have a long way to go before they hit triple digit numbers per 24 hours.

There's 320ish million people in the USA and only 1.1 million have tested positive.
For comparison, Australia has 26ish million people and 6,767 positive cases.

 

[ozkisses]

@ Tatty_One I didn't realise that and it makes sense. My heart went out to the UK when I read it but then again I am in country where the majority are doing the right thing so when we hear that one person has died overnight it is upsetting. I know our final numbers will be higher but hopefully not by much though.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Same in United States.

Totals for the US

Daily totals for all metrics collected from January 2020 to the present.

covidtracking.com

200k-300k tests per day and states are now insisting more people get tested because doctors aren't ordering many so there's unused testing capacity.


Because USA doesn't keep track of recoveries other than people that were admitted and later released. People that have it mild are sent home and told to quarantine for 14 days. They're never reported anywhere as "recovered."


There's 320ish million people in the USA and only 1.1 million have tested positive.
For comparison, Australia has 26ish million people and 6,767 positive cases.

Positive's is relevant to the amount of people tested, not the overall population and in part that is the problem for most of us, some of our scientists are saying that a true picture of the endgame will not be in sight until at least 25% of the population has been tested, we have done badly initially at testing, very badly to be fair but we have as I said improved significantly recently, yesterday we tested nearly 150k, for a country of the population of the US 200 - 300k is not high at all, in fact it is low, for us (UK) the aim should be 250k per day, Germany have been doing 200k - 500k for weeks, I am no expert but you need to be doing 1m+ ideally...……… but that of course is if it fits with whatever your particular strategy is.

 

[ozkisses]

There's 320ish million people in the USA and only 1.1 million have tested positive.
For comparison, Australia has 26ish million people and 6,767 positive cases.

That's true but each country has it's own mores and ours are very different to yours, that isn't a fault on either side, just how it is I guess. You are cheering % rates while we are all feeling the deaths and feeling saddened by it.

If the tables were turned and our population and death rates were higher we would be feeling it. I may be wrong but I doubt with the nature of our people that anyone would make a comment like we are doing ok % wise when 2,000 of our countrymen are dying daily.

Like I said, it isn't a fault on either side it is how a culture develops in all ways and ours are very different. We are known as the lucky country (and yes the land down under) and currently are mourning 93 lives lost and feeling blessed that number isn't higher.

 

[Vayra86]

See this post. TL;DR: Influenza anti-bodies start eliminating the virus within days usually. Coronaviruses take weeks. Influenza mutates extremely fast; coronaviruses do not. Both resources I found said that actual reinfection once the body creates "neutralizing antibodies" for the coronavirus is not possible.

Coronaviruses are evasive but they're not like HIV or influenza. Case in point: the H1N1 strain (aka Influenza A) that went around 2019-2020 was the exact same strain that caused an epidemic in 2009-2010. Herd immunity + vaccinations stopped it from getting as bad this time around because people that had it or were vaccinated wouldn't get it again.

So far there is zero. Zero! Evidence that the current wave of infections has created herd immunity of any meaningful percentage.

In addition, reinfection is being investigated and seems possible.

WHO investigating reports of COVID-19 reinfection - UPI.com

The World Health Organization said Saturday it's investigating reports that some individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 have been reinfected.

www.upi.com

I also found numerous sources out of Feb this year but this one is much more recent, so prob more relevant.

Either way, consensus thus far is that herd immunity will not be saving us at all. Even just because the pressure on society would run to critical long before you reach any substantial percentage. Forget it.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25190 confirmed infected --- ?????
- 1671 recovered --- 24 more
- 1023 fatalities --- 16 more
- 252728 suspected cases --- 1459 more
- 426836 tests taken --- 16875 more
- 3761 waiting for test results --- 67 less
- 27895 under watch from authorities --- 1861 less
- 855 hospitalized --- 37 less
- 150 in ICU --- 4 less

Dunno why but the regular chart i have been posting with the daily numbers has been replaced by that which i posted of today's results: this only gives partial information and omits hospitalized, ICU, and other numbers, which is why i placed "?????" and "N/A" in the relevant places, VS yesterday.

In a classic example of "how NOT to check the country's results", our Health Minister announced we had incorrectly tallied twice 422 results since last week (since 25th April, to be precise), and that our country had an increase today of only 0.8% and that our current infected count is now 25190.

Except ... the math doesn't add up ... because, if we take yesterday's total and remove 422 cases and then add 0.8% to the total, we get 25128 and not 25190 ...

Today's the last day of Portugal's emergency state, which has been in effect for the last 45 days. It had to be renewed 3 times because, by law, it can't be longer than 15 days. From tomorrow on, we'll be under "calamity state" and some extra powers the government had during emergency state will be removed.

Problem is that many countries report very differently, so some only report deaths based on having been tested with a positive result, some only report deaths in hospitals (as they tend to all have tested positive if only on admission), I don't know why, perhaps it's because it is not absolutely certain Covid-19 was the root cause without the test, my understanding is that many countries follow this approach...…. until recently the UK only reported deaths in hospital, we now report all deaths, in hospital, in the home, in residential care settings and in Hospices, I don't think everyone does that.

You will also see that the UK has the worst recovery rate, that's because we don't record recovery rates, 90%+ of those infected stay at home, they will have had a test if they showed the symptoms and tested positive but the majority of them once recovered do not request or have the means until recently to get a 2nd test so there is an empty reporting space so to speak. We now test 100,000+ a day so do have the means for those 2nd tests for those infected at home but they still have to be requested.

one related example in death rate anomalies...……….

Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differ

In Italy, the death rate from Covid-19 is more than 10 times greater than in Germany. Why does the death rate vary so much internationally?

www.bbc.com

Our President was clear on that since before the emergency state became in effect, IIRC: regardless of whatever else the patients had, if they had COVID-19 and ended up dying, the official cause of death is "by COVID-19". This applies to everywhere, and not just in Hospitals: just like UK currently does.

EDIT

Managed to track down some of the missing data from here.

 

[the54thvoid]

It is an irony that when looking at statistics, we're using the most unequal of playing fields. If we want to look at pure logic, it's possible to get a mortality rate of 100% -- as long as you only test those that die. The more tests that are completed, the more you push down the 'mortality rate'. The only feasible metric to use is the deaths per capita and even then, that requires honest, or at least correct and complete (and non-politically motivated) reporting of data.

For example, UK figures jumped this week as we added in care home deaths. Comparing country to country is an ineffective way to discuss this pandemic, no better than trying to equate scores between rugby and football, or Baseball and Basketball.

The lockdown has massively decreased the spread of the virus and the problem is that people don't see the catastrophe of what would have happened if we didn't control it (a partuclarly bad trait of humans to fail to see the flip-side of a decision). R<1 would still be R3 and our systems would have collapsed anyway. The choices are pretty stark: Control the spread and suffer the economic consequence, versus, don't control the spread and suffer the economic consequence AND see many more deaths.

There was never going to be a good way out of this. The economy would have suffered regardless as industry would have crumbled under an ever-increasing shortage of labour (even taking two weeks off for mild sickness). A perfect example is how many public transport drivers in the UK have died. Less drivers = less transport = no work for some = diminished output. Now spread those deaths at a far higher rate to all sectors and you have a breakdown of confidence and service, without Government assistance.

 

[Tatty_Two]

As for herd immunity, in the earlier days of the Pandemic, herd immunity strategies or theories were an excuse to low test in some countries (in part possibly my own but we U turned within 2 weeks thankfully) perhaps because of test kit availability, test low and hope and pray enough people get infected and live to eventually establish the herd, the problem with that even if it eventually works is that the more that get infected the more die so whether intentional or not it can appear that you save money and effort on testing at the premeditated cost of your citizen's lives.

 

[sepheronx]

If anyone is interested here is a list of number of Covid tests done per country

Tests for COVID-19 most impacted countries worldwide 2022 | Statista

As of December 22, 2022, the United States had performed around 1.15 billion tests for COVID-19, the highest number of any country worldwide.

www.statista.com

 

[Tatty_Two]

If anyone is interested here is a list of number of Covid tests done per country

Tests for COVID-19 most impacted countries worldwide 2022 | Statista

As of December 22, 2022, the United States had performed around 1.15 billion tests for COVID-19, the highest number of any country worldwide.

www.statista.com

Very useful thanks, just shows where the UK have got in the last 7-10 days after a dismal start because as of yesterday we hit 1,129,907 tested but I think all of us are going to fail in the imaginary 25% of population tested within the first 100 days, not that that is a target but a guideline, not even sure if that is realistic or just an idea a group of scientists had a few weeks ago.

 

[the54thvoid]

If anyone is interested here is a list of number of Covid tests done per country

Tests for COVID-19 most impacted countries worldwide 2022 | Statista

As of December 22, 2022, the United States had performed around 1.15 billion tests for COVID-19, the highest number of any country worldwide.

www.statista.com

A quick analysis of tests per population for the above graph (top 8 total tests) is:

Italy - 3.16%
Germany - 3.04%
Spain - 3.03%
Russia - 2.39%
USA - 1.85%
UK - 1.21%
Turkey - 1.18%
India - 0.06%

Also, you have to factor in the resources of larger economies

(Figures as scale of GDP as % of global economy)

US - 24%
China - 15%
Japan - 6%
Germany - 4.5% (highest per capita in world)
India - 3.28%
UK - 3.26%

So really, nothing in isolation makes sense. Rich countries you'd expect to do more testing but per capita - in hard stats, they do not.