Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[HTC]

If anyone is interested here is a list of number of Covid tests done per country

Tests for COVID-19 most impacted countries worldwide 2022 | Statista

As of December 22, 2022, the United States had performed around 1.15 billion tests for COVID-19, the highest number of any country worldwide.

www.statista.com

Unfortunately, this gives the total tests but NOT tests per capita, which is a KEY detail.

For example: Portugal has roughly 1/32 of the population of USA but has just under 1/16 of USA's amount of tests performed, so it has almost double the tests of USA and this is by the data provided in the link (April 30th).

There was never going to be a good way out of this. The economy would have suffered regardless as industry would have crumbled under an ever-increasing shortage of labour (even taking two weeks off for mild sickness). A perfect example is how many public transport drivers in the UK have died. Less drivers = less transport = no work for some = diminished output. Now spread those deaths at a far higher rate to all sectors and you have a breakdown of confidence and service, without Government assistance.

Agreed.

That's why i think New Zealand has had the best approach to this:

New Zealand sets sights on coronavirus elimination after 2 weeks of lockdown

New modeling shows there's a real chance of that happening.

www.axios.com

Severe measures right @ the beginning of the outbreak lead to the measures being in place for a much shorter period, so it's actually far FAR cheaper this way.

EDIT

Three reasons why Jacinda Ardern’s coronavirus response has been a masterclass in crisis leadership

As someone who researches and teaches leadership, I’d argue New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is giving most Western politicians a masterclass in crisis leadership.

theconversation.com

 

[Tatty_Two]

Another interesting one, Government stimulus and financial aid packages to support people and the economy as a percentage of last years GDP......……….

Infographic: How Coronavirus Stimulus Packages Compare

This chart show stimulus packages passed because of the coronavirus pandemic in selected countries (2020).

www.statista.com

 

[Xzibit]

Another interesting one, Government stimulus and financial aid packages to support people and the economy as a percentage of last years GDP......……….

Infographic: How Coronavirus Stimulus Packages Compare

This chart show stimulus packages passed because of the coronavirus pandemic in selected countries (2020).

www.statista.com

Where are they counting from.

German GDP was 3.8t - 2,307,954
USA was 21.4t - 2,999,794

That's a lot of debt being accumulated by countries.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Where are they counting from.

German GDP was 3.8t - 2,307,954
USA was 21.4t - 2,999,794

That's a lot of debt being accumulated by countries.

Dunno, it may mean net??? Why do you think Mr Trump is so keen in getting America working again? Countries need to get back on track, the debate is at what human cost. Apparently without it there would be 3 times that cost to the economy, dependant of course on what countries were stimulating within their economies and that is excluding the "human" cost, I say 3 times more but that is based on UK estimates, our package is to end of June but if the economy and the pandemic's impact on the economy continue severely beyond June (which it's likely to do) then our Stimulus will double, I think to around 1.1 Trillion which is like a third of our GDP (if it happens) and we are ranked 5 in the world (biggest GDP), in essence it could also mean that doing nothing means it will take 3 times longer to recover, some speculate worse cases around 10 years to recover, if that was even remotely close, countries that do nothing might take 30 years! each country obviously will have their own approach and might well stimulate less but recover as fast..... who knows.

But speculate is another word for "guess"

 

[HTC]

Where are they counting from.

German GDP was 3.8t - 2,307,954
USA was 21.4t - 2,999,794

That's a lot of debt being accumulated by countries.

That's why i suggested this: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565/post-4249228

And this: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565/post-4249284

 

[FordGT90Concept]

In addition, reinfection is being investigated and seems possible.

WHO investigating reports of COVID-19 reinfection - UPI.com

The World Health Organization said Saturday it's investigating reports that some individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 have been reinfected.

www.upi.com

Old source (April 11). Mine was May 1.

This here is what they call an "evolving" situation. Generalities a month ago are being replaced with specifics concerning COVID-19 now.

I also found numerous sources out of Feb this year but this one is much more recent, so prob more relevant.

China, Japan, and South Korea reported it but only South Korea published their findings AFAIK and South Korea determined it was due to testing failures, not reinfection. Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy is mirroring the immunity assertion (see below).

Either way, consensus thus far is that herd immunity will not be saving us at all. Even just because the pressure on society would run to critical long before you reach any substantial percentage. Forget it.

I'll just leave this here for a reality check:

The coronavirus pandemic could last up to 2 years, according to US experts. They predict we may see a 2nd, larger wave of infections this fall.

A Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy study outlined three scenarios for the end of the COVID-19 outbreak. It could last until 2022.

www.businessinsider.com

All those healthcare professionals aren't taking things into consideration like this:

"I'm starving now": World faces unprecedented hunger crisis amid coronavirus pandemic

There's "a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself," says the U.N. food agency's chief.

www.cbsnews.com

Millions will die of malnutrition unless things change. Millions more will die in the chaos that follows. We're at a pivot point now of living in fear or confronting it come hell or high water.

The goal of the lockdown was never to stop it, but to buy time to prepare to face it (especially ventilators). We're quickly running out of road to kick the can down.

Why do you think Mr Trump is so keen in getting America working again?

Maybe because, for example, 37% of Hawaii's population is now unemployed and it's only getting worse? These are numbers challenge the Great Depression. We're digging ourselves a hole that will take decades to climb out of and much of that self inflincted via quarantine.

 

[xman2007]

Seems if you post something in here that goes with the status quo then it's allowed to fly but post anything else that goes against the grain and you get shot down for posting fake news and trolling, by what authority are all these "supposed" news sites verified, I can show you just as many other sources that contradict everything that's being posted and the world is sick of this now, we can't lock ourselves away forever because of a virus that is no more detrimental to health than that of the flu when you're talking about mortality rate. Not too mention Africa and other less rich/developed countries are not enforcing the same lockdown rules as Europe and USA, millions won't die from corona because of malnutrition, this is scare mongering, there is no verifiable, reliable information to back this up, here's a stat for you: the most deaths per million of capita for coronavirus is Belgium with a whopping 675 deaths per million population.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Not too mention Africa and other less rich/developed countries are not enforcing the same lockdown rules as Europe and USA, millions won't die from corona because of malnutrition, this is scare mongering, there is no verifiable, reliable information to back this up

Didn't see the embedded link? Here's a quote:

The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) has warned that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation – double last year's figures.

Have another source:

Malnutrition identified as root cause of 3.1 million deaths among children

Weekend hunger summit in London prefaced by publication in the Lancet of shocking new figures on undernutrition

www.theguardian.com

Malnutrition is the underlying cause of death for at least 3.1 million children, accounting for 45% of all deaths among children under the age of five and stunting growth among a further 165 million, according to a set of reports released ahead of a nutrition summit in London.

That was in 2013. At least 6 million children ("millions") are going to die of malnutrition if supply chains don't start moving again.

If you want to hide in your house forever, whatever, but if people want to get back to work, there is a need.

 

[xman2007]

Didn't see the embedded link? Here's a quote:

Have another source:

Malnutrition identified as root cause of 3.1 million deaths among children

Weekend hunger summit in London prefaced by publication in the Lancet of shocking new figures on undernutrition

www.theguardian.com

That was in 2013. At least 6 million children ("millions") are going to die of malnutrition if supply chains don't start moving again.

If you want to hide in your house forever, whatever, but if people want to get back to work, there is a need.

I'm saying the same as you, lockdown has done what it needs to we can't close down the worlds economies any longer for whats, let's face it, little more deadly than the annual flu virus, but things are being totally taken out of context and so-called facts being reported when in reality the sources are no more in the know than the average joe off the street

Hopefully united nations is to be more trusted than WHO eh?

 

[Vayra86]

Old source (April 11). Mine was May 1.

This here is what they call an "evolving" situation. Generalities a month ago are being replaced with specifics concerning COVID-19 now.


China, Japan, and South Korea reported it but only South Korea published their findings AFAIK and South Korea determined it was due to testing failures, not reinfection. Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy is mirroring the immunity assertion (see below).


I'll just leave this here for a reality check:

The coronavirus pandemic could last up to 2 years, according to US experts. They predict we may see a 2nd, larger wave of infections this fall.

A Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy study outlined three scenarios for the end of the COVID-19 outbreak. It could last until 2022.

www.businessinsider.com

All those healthcare professionals aren't taking things into consideration like this:

"I'm starving now": World faces unprecedented hunger crisis amid coronavirus pandemic

There's "a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself," says the U.N. food agency's chief.

www.cbsnews.com

Millions will die of malnutrition unless things change. Millions more will die in the chaos that follows. We're at a pivot point now of living in fear or confronting it come hell or high water.

The goal of the lockdown was never to stop it, but to buy time to prepare to face it (especially ventilators). We're quickly running out of road to kick the can down.



Maybe because, for example, 37% of Hawaii's population is now unemployed and it's only getting worse? These are numbers challenge the Great Depression. We're digging ourselves a hole that will take decades to climb out of and much of that self inflincted via quarantine.

Millions always died from malnutrition, but not in your backyard so nobody ever cared.

Sorry, but this 'economy first' movement is a bizarre reflex of trying to preserve your way of life. Not lives. And it is a trend that is probably the strongest in the US. Its not my reality. Its also badly constructed. How are your healthcare systems going to survive? Gonna pray to a higher power that the virus goes on the desired 'slow burn' because no evidence so far suggests it will??

Get a grip... I understand the sentiment of losing wealth. But on what grounds, so we can eat steak again?! Or your job continues? If it does, it is at the expense of others. Comforting...

 

[the54thvoid]

Seems if you post something in here that goes with the status quo then it's allowed to fly but post anything else that goes against the grain and you get shot down for posting fake news and trolling, by what authority are all these "supposed" news sites verified, I can show you just as many other sources that contradict everything that's being posted and the world is sick of this now, we can't lock ourselves away forever because of a virus that is no more detrimental to health than that of the flu when you're talking about mortality rate. Not too mention Africa and other less rich/developed countries are not enforcing the same lockdown rules as Europe and USA, millions won't die from corona because of malnutrition, this is scare mongering, there is no verifiable, reliable information to back this up, here's a stat for you: the most deaths per million of capita for coronavirus is Belgium with a whopping 675 deaths per million population.

Posting here is for stats and maps for the spread. Everything else can live in the lounge.

As a reminder why Covid is treated differently, it's transmission rate is far higher, so even if you want to assume the same mortality rate, you must factor in two variables that in reality make it far worse:

1 - it affects up to 3 times as many people = 3 times as many deaths.
2 - it has no vaccine or drug immuntity, so unlike flu, everyone can theoretically get it.

Nobody here wishes the lockdown to continue longer than is necessary, and common sense dictates that countries will, and are, opening up. Each demographic, however, must look to their own first before judging others. So, for example, in cares homes, it's an absolute death sentence (they get flu jabs, not for this). In densely populated areas, especially with poverty, it is also very bad, as poverty is assocaietd with other co-morbidities. If we had a vaccine, it would be no worse than flu - but we dont have a vaccine, so ignoring demographic specificity is idiotic, and therefore, supporting a general re-opening, is a means to prolong and worsen the crisis.

However, left to good conrtol (New Zealand springs to mind), it can be beaten fast. In rural areas with low pop density, sure - fire in - get back to work. But it's all got to be measured up.

As for Belgium - it's population density is 991 people per square mile. USA is 94. (Spain 243, Italy 532, UK 727). These factors have substantial impact on deaths.

For shits'n'giggles, New York pop density is 26,403 per square mile (London is only 4542).

 

[Tatty_Two]

I think everyone acknowledges the need to try to re-boot all of our economies as quickly as possible, I certainly do but there will be a human cost involved with that and it might be significant, it is not easy for any President or Prime Minister to take a decision that will cost lives, especially as at this point there can only be speculation on just how many lives, for them, apart from the humanity of it all it's a lose..... lose situation, does an elected official not get re-elected because they did not get the economy up and running again quickly enough or do they not get re-elected because in doing so XXX more people lost their lives, remembering of course it does become a very personal issue if you have lost a loved one because of this virus.

 

[dragontamer5788]

These were the deaths in the worst five countries one week ago.

USA - 40615 (Deaths)
Italy - 23660
Spain - 20852
France - 19718
UK - 16060

This is one week later.

USA - 56803 -- 40% increase in deaths
Italy - 26997 -- 14%
Spain - 23521 -- 13%
France - 23293 -- 18%
UK - 21092 -- 31%


US and UK still rising fast.

I used to believe in death counts, but this WashPo article suggests that the US is undercounting deaths by an order of magnitude.

My area has a decline in the hospital-beds being used, but an increase in COVID19 detection + death rate. Testing has become more widespread, and deaths are a trailing indicator (it takes ~3 to 4 weeks to die from COVID19). So the death count is a discussion of how bad things were 3 to 4 weeks ago.

The hospital-beds used in your area is probably the best estimate for how bad COVID19 is. As long as the local hospital system hasn't been overwhelmed yet. Both hospital-beds and ICU beds are trailing indicators (it takes 1 or 2 weeks before your symptoms appear and become bad enough to go to the hospital), but less trailing than deaths.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true

I'm sure Italy, UK, and other countries are also undercounting deaths. I'm not sure how to normalize numbers across countries anymore.

As for Belgium - it's population density is 991 people per square mile. USA is 94. (Spain 243, Italy 532, UK 727). These factors have substantial impact on deaths.

The wildcard is that the virus is beginning to spread in rural communities in the USA. Rural communities barely have hospital beds. Anyone who has visited Rural America knows that some hospitals out there only have 5 beds covering an area of ~50 miles... and probably no ICU beds (relying upon the "big cities" for ICU support or special equipment). The virus is arguably scarier in an area with less healthcare. If you get COVID19 out there, you're gonna have to drive 2-hours to get good treatment.

 

[the54thvoid]

I used to believe in death counts, but this WashPo article suggests that the US is undercounting deaths by an order of magnitude.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true

I'm sure Italy, UK, and other countries are also undercounting deaths. I'm not sure how to normalize numbers across countries anymore.

Pretty much everyone will be undercounting but in most cases I'd argue it's not political, rather a logistical nightmare.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Pretty much everyone will be undercounting but in most cases I'd argue it's not political, rather a logistical nightmare.

I agree. I know a few people working at the CDC and they undercount deaths on a regular basis. Hurricane Maria, Katrina, Opioids, etc. etc. Its their job to go over the numbers again and again and try to move closer to the truth. People don't realize how difficult it is to come up with the numbers, or the amount of work needed to get good statistics.

In particular, my close friends were working on the "rapid response" numbers, getting numbers out to the public in a month instead of a year. A few years ago, CDC would take a year to get these death statistics out to the public, but now they move at a monthly pace. But getting death counts per month is still too slow, so people are relying upon the media and unstandardized local sources to get weekly, or daily, death counts.

There's no way in hell that these daily counts are anywhere close to accurate. They will inevitably be undercounting deaths.

-------

Given the extreme lockdown measures that have been imposed, it only makes sense to use non-standard daily numbers. Besides, we don't really care about the "accuracy" of the death counts, we just need them to be consistent enough to know if we're getting better, or worse. If we get better, then we know we might be able to reopen soon. If it gets worse, then we need to stay locked down for a bit longer. Yeah, it means we're making decisions on inaccurate data, but does anyone have a better idea?

Making a decision on bad data is better than no data at all.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25282 confirmed infected --- 92 more
- 1689 recovered --- 18 more
- 1043 fatalities --- 20 more
- 252889 suspected cases --- 161 more
- 426836 tests taken --- no change
- 3691 waiting for test results --- 70 less
- 25324 under watch from authorities --- 2571 less
- 851 hospitalized --- 1 more
- 144 in ICU --- 6 less

Portugal's official site is now working again: the good news is that we had the 1st 2-digit-only increase in cases since March 16.

Portugal now manufactures 1M face masks per day. However, dunno what grade are these: surgical, "community", N95? It's non the less a vast improvement over before this pandemic.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

They will inevitably be undercounting deaths.

In the USA, likely overcounting because the government has incentivized attributing deaths to COVID-19 even if that wasn't the cause. Example: somebody dies of pneumonia, tests positive for COVID-19, and was diagnosed with COPD, COVID-19 would go down as the cause of death even though COPD is what allowed COVID-19 to push them over the edge. If they caught influenza-A instead of COVID-19 at that time, it would have been influenza-A that pushed them over; however, if the patient didn't have COPD, they likely would have survived both. Cause of death, therefore, was COPD with COVID-19 a contributing factor.

Another example: someone dies in a car accident. They discover COVID-19 in the autopsy and it is put down as the cause of death even though it literally didn't even contribute. How does COVID-19 cause a car accident?

And then we have all of the people that test positive and get sent home to self quarantine for 14 days. The vast majority don't die and they should be counted against mortality rates by increasing the denominator, but they aren't.

This is the most accurate way to describe the situation: mortality rates best reflect the kind of cases (usually) that make people go to a hospital or clinic. In other words, it only shows the worst case scenarios, not the typical scenarios (which according to Johns Hopkins are asymptomatic to moderate).

This is likely true for everywhere on Earth because testing capacity is still very limited.


TL;DR: odds are overcounting deaths (numerator) and undercounting cases not requiring hospitalization (denominator). Together that means mortality rates are much lower than reported.

Making a decision on bad data is better than no data at all.

Three Mile Island and Chernobyl would like to have a word.

Despite the valve being stuck open, a light on the control panel ostensibly indicated that the valve was closed.

While the emergency scram system that would insert all control rods to shut down the reactor could still be activated manually (through the "AZ-5" switch), the automated system that would ordinarily do the same had been mostly disabled to maintain the power level, and many other automated and even passive safety features of the reactor had been bypassed.

No data = Figure out why you have no data and fix it. At worst, a decision is delayed.
Bad data = Bad decision guarenteed.

But that's hindsight, solid data is finally pouring in from all fields and the aggregate data points towards opening up.

 

[dragontamer5788]

In the USA, likely overcounting because the government has incentivized attributing deaths to COVID-19 even if that wasn't the cause. Example: somebody dies of pneumonia, tests positive for COVID-19, and was diagnosed with COPD, COVID-19 would go down as the cause of death even though COPD is what allowed COVID-19 to push them over the edge.

Lets take New York City and start to actually discuss the situation. New York City (and many other locations) have at least 4 different numbers to talk about.

1. CDC's death count (Federal Government)
2. The New York State's death count
3. New York City's death count (In this case: two different counts. "probable" and "confirmed")
4. Media (and many other's) death count.

None of these four numbers are synchronized, none of the four numbers have the same methodology, and therefore all the numbers are different. #4 is a catch-all term, the Washington Post will obviously report different numbers than New York Post.

---------

Obviously, you have qualms with someone's numbers. The first step in resolving our discussion, is to pick a particular set of numbers you and I are willing to talk.

If they caught influenza-A instead of COVID-19 at that time, it would have been influenza-A that pushed them over; however, if the patient didn't have COPD, they likely would have survived both. Cause of death, therefore, was COPD with COVID-19 a contributing factor.

The CDC numbers are based on the cause-of-death by the doctor who certified the death. Unless you're willing to disagree with the opinion of literally thousands of doctors who write the cause of death on the death certificate... I don't know what you're criticizing here.

In the case of #3, New York City's numbers, they actually undercount the cause-of-death numbers. Even if its the doctor's opinion that COVID19 killed someone, it doesn't count as a "confirmed death" unless a COVID19 test was taken and proven to be in the body at time of death.

 

[the54thvoid]

This thread has begun to turn a nasty corner toward speculation about counting, which is diminishing the actual harm the virus is causing. I can only imagine political reasoning and bias is behind this slow seep of 'I feel the count is wrong' or, 'I have a friend who knows stuff' but whatever--take that to the lounge. I'm sorry to say but feelings and ideology have no place in a stastistical discussion. If people wish to pander to a new metric of science where they believe the media has made this up, they need to get their heads checked. When right leaning governments and left leaning governments have mandated the same approach, and when totalitarian regimes and liberal democracy have mandated the same approach -- you need to see, there is no illusion of consequence.

Be you a knee quacking lefty, or a hate-filled righty, keep the pace in this forum to science AND weighted evidence. Debunked, political crap can go to hell. For a fantastic balance of views, look to the UK. A right-wing elected government is keeping us on lockdown at massive expense. That isn't done for spite, or agenda.

And, I need to say, in the US, where the federal government has a lockdown approach but the POTUS tweets another narrative, you need to understand what is going on is political. Now, I never voted Boris, but he's damn straight on keeping people safe. Step back from the agendas and look at the global approach to this. It's not overhyped if Russia or China enforced draconian lockdowns. Your leaders know what's going on and it scares the shit out of them. But still, some will pander to their electoral base and start an opposite narrative to their official stance.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

1. CDC's death count (Federal Government)
2. The New York State's death count
3. New York City's death count (In this case: two different counts. "probable" and "confirmed")
4. Media (and many other's) death count.

None of these four numbers are synchronized, none of the four numbers have the same methodology, and therefore all the numbers are different. #4 is a catch-all term, the Washington Post will obviously report different numbers than New York Post.

CDC is the only one that matters and they compile on monthly basis with pressure to speed it up. This is the form that accompanies all deaths and what all the numbers are based from:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf

Everything (#2-4) not from CDC is preliminary.

The CDC numbers are based on the cause-of-death by the doctor who certified the death.

They're pressured by administrators to use U07.1 because the facility then qualifies for more aide because bureaucrats see they are actively combating COVID-19 pandemic. From linked document:

Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause?
The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID19 being the underlying cause more often than not.

Reference the "blue form" above. It has "Immediate Cause" and three spaces for "Underlying Cause." According to CDC instruction, COVID-19 code ("U07.1") should be used as an underlying cause "more often than not." So...

Minnesota doctor blasts 'ridiculous' CDC coronavirus death count guidelines

Dr. Scott Jensen, a Minnesota family physician who is also a Republican state senator, told "The Ingraham Angle" Wednesday that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) guidelines for doctors to certify whether a patient has died of coronavirus are "ridiculous" and could be...

www.foxnews.com

...these elements combine to make COVID-19 appear in death certificates it doesn't belong hugely inflating COVID-19 mortality numbers.



I'm sure there's analysis going on comparing seasonal mortality figures to see if there is actually a bump in deaths because of COVID-19 or if these people are mostly dying of routine things being falsely attributed to COVID-19. I expect a bump in hot spots like NYC, Italy, and Spain but I also expect the aggregate to be overall higher because of COVID-19 + influenza-A + influenza-B that went around 2019-2020 flu season (in itself quite peculiar that two strains of influenza went around).

This thread has begun to turn a nasty corner toward speculation about counting, which is diminishing the actual harm the virus is causing. I can only imagine political reasoning and bias is behind this slow seep of 'I feel the count is wrong' or, 'I have a friend who knows stuff' but whatever--take that to the lounge. I'm sorry to say but feelings and ideology have no place in a stastistical discussion. If people wish to pander to a new metric of science where they believe the media has made this up, they need to get their heads checked. When right leaning governments and left leaning governments have mandated the same approach, and when totalitarian regimes and liberal democracy have mandated the same approach -- you need to see, there is no illsuion of consequence.

Be you a knee quacking lefty, or a hate-filled righty, keep the pace in this forum to science AND weighted evidence. Debunked, political crap can go to hell. For a fantastic balance of views, look to the UK. A right-wing elected government is keeping us on lockdown at massive expense. That isn't done for spite, or agenda.

And, I need to say, in the US, where the federal government has a lockdown approach but the POTUS tweets another narrative, you need to understand what is going on is political. Now, I never voted Boris, but he's damn straight on keeping people safe. Step back from the agendas and look at the global approach to this. It's not overhyped if Russia or China enforced draconian lockdowns. Your leaders know what's going on and it scares the shit out of them. But still, some will pander to their electoral base and start an opposite narrative to their official stance.

That was then, this is now. Countries everywhere are loosening restrictions because of proven data points like this one:

~80% of infections are not severe and some may be asymptomatic.

It will inevitably lead to more positive cases, more deaths, and more recoveries. Same thing happens in bad influenza years. That's just life though: sickness and death happen.

 

[the54thvoid]

^^ So, 20% of cases are severe.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

They don't expand on it. They do cite a paper out of Washington state of 21 people hospitalized with COVID-19. The mean age was 70. 86% had contributing factors (e.g. diabetes). 81% were admitted to ICU within 24 hours of presenting at the hospital.

The Swedish approach is likely the best (quarantine those 60+ and those with known contributing factors) while business as usual for the rest.

 

[the54thvoid]

Sweden has been often cited but what is missed is that culturally, they carry out what is requested, so if they're told, stay at home, they do. Culture is another factor in this. Soon, we'll find shoe colour is too.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

80+ year olds have a 14.8% chance of dying when exposed to COVID-19 (if they aren't lucky enough to be asymptomatic anyway). That's a high enough number to scare most in that demographic to comply.

60+ year olds (3.6% increasing to 8% at 70+) have a enough chance that it gives some pause in terms of decision makings in public. For example, my parents and their friends (all in that category) are likely going to cancel a two-week long vacation/trip because of fear of having to use public restrooms and the like.

It's those below the demographics above that are eager to get back to work and feel the risk of getting sick is worth the reward of returning to normalcy.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

80+ year olds have a 14.8% chance of dying when exposed to COVID-19 (if they aren't lucky enough to be asymptomatic anyway). That's a high enough number to scare most in that demographic to comply.

60+ year olds (3.6% increasing to 8% at 70+) have a enough chance that it gives some pause in terms of decision makings in public. For example, my parents and their friends (all in that category) are likely going to cancel a two-week long vacation/trip because of fear of having to use public restrooms and the like.

It's those below the demographics above that are eager to get back to work and feel the risk of getting sick is worth the reward of returning to normalcy.

In the UK, the over 70's have been in quarantine since mid March whether they have underlying conditions or not along with all the other usual high risk conditions at any age, I say quarantine as that is what the government is calling it although over here the topical term currently is "shielded" BUT, those over 70 without underlying conditions are allowed to exercise once a day maintaining social distancing and if they really can't access food they can go to the Supermarket however Supermarkets have set slots at opening times where ONLY the over 70's can shop so they go into a sanitised supermarket only with others also quarantined in what is now in the UK a strictly controlled entry system with only one way aisles, you go past an item that you forgot, too late you don't go back for it, don't know what the real elderly make of it all, I know my 88 year old Mother in Law would not cope on her own in those situations, she cannot even remember where her bathroom is at times.

For those over 70 with underlying conditions, they can get free food deliveries, well that's the idea.