Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Vayra86]

They don't expand on it. They do cite a paper out of Washington state of 21 people hospitalized with COVID-19. The mean age was 70. 86% had contributing factors (e.g. diabetes). 81% were admitted to ICU within 24 hours of presenting at the hospital.

The Swedish approach is likely the best (quarantine those 60+ and those with known contributing factors) while business as usual for the rest.

Sweden is definitely an interesting one, because their numbers have been a roller coaster of ups and downs. Controlled, yes, but it is a really, really tight balance over there. And note; the degree of control depends 100% on catching new infections rapidly and a populace that, as mentioned, trusts the government in a big way and follows rules. And a healthcare system that did not get overwhelmed at the beginning.

What Sweden actually shows us is that only with extreme diligence it is possible to loosen up, and only if everyone agrees. Now, take that perspective to 90% of all other countries in the world. Good luck Theoretically though I completely agree its the best approach to go about business as usual, with some caution applied. In practice? We are not responsible enough.

I see it over here too. We are pretty close to Sweden in the type of lockdown (NL). Lots of freedom. I can do nearly everything, but I still work from home. Our government never told us things got lifted, but you can just see and feel there is more activity, I was out for a drive a few days back and it was an old fashioned rush hour. People have no restraint.

 

[ne6togadno]

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0009454

 

[lexluthermiester]

Things have pretty much flatlined in my area. We haven't had any new confirmed infections in a few days.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Things have pretty much flatlined in my area. We haven't had any new confirmed infections in a few days.

That's really good, shows whatever you were doing has worked, the thing is in the UK, more than 50% of the people do not want a relaxation of the lockdown, they appear to be afraid, I can understand that but the key thing for me is that with enough testing, contact tracing, sensible social distancing and a dose of enthusiasm many can get back to work, the risk will be when movement restrictions start to be lifted so people, both for work or for social/family reasons can travel a little more freely, then those areas like yours (and mine) may well start having infections again, but if managed properly that should not be a problem.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25524 confirmed infected --- 242 more
- 1712 recovered --- 23 more
- 1063 fatalities --- 20 more
- 254510 suspected cases --- 1621 more
- 426836 tests taken --- no change
- 2760 waiting for test results --- 931 less
- 25081 under watch from authorities --- 243 less
- 813 hospitalized --- 43 less
- 143 in ICU --- 1 less

1st day of "calamity state", as opposed to "emergency state": new businesses are now open for the 1st time in 46 days, such as hairdressing saloons, shoe stores, small library stores, etc.

It's now mandatory the use of masks in the public transportation system, with a maximum number of people allowed currently fixed @ 2/3 the total capacity of the vehicle and the vast majority of the passengers are cooperating: there's a hefty fine for those that don't follow these rules.

 

[lexluthermiester]

That's really good, shows whatever you were doing has worked

Our area hasn't done much beyond social distancing and shut-down of non-essential businesses. Everything else has continued on more or less unabated.

 

[Tatty_Two]

UK update as of today 4th May ...………………………...

 

[dragontamer5788]

I'm sure there's analysis going on comparing seasonal mortality figures to see if there is actually a bump in deaths because of COVID-19 or if these people are mostly dying of routine things being falsely attributed to COVID-19. I expect a bump in hot spots like NYC, Italy, and Spain but I also expect the aggregate to be overall higher because of COVID-19 + influenza-A + influenza-B that went around 2019-2020 flu season (in itself quite peculiar that two strains of influenza went around).

This already happened and your argument you're relying upon has already been proven wrong.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true

USA has an increase of deaths far in excess of COVID19 deaths, suggesting we're undercounting deaths. You may not like the CDC guidelines, but they are Republican and owned by Trump. Any issues with CDC guidelines you can take it up with the man in charge. If you think Trump is encouraging bureaucrats to overcount deaths, I got a bridge to sell to you.

The USA total deaths have been grossly higher, above and beyond our COVID19 death counts. I understand that some media (ie: Fox News) keeps pushing fake news like hydroxychloroquine, conspiracy theories about the "Deep State", Bat Soup, and other such nonsense. But look at the numbers, look at the deaths, look at the results. With USA-seasonaly adjusted excess deaths finally being analyzed, there's no place for your argument to move the goalposts any longer.

----------

The bump in deaths is in March 2020. Influenza-A + Influenza-B are winter (November to Feburary) diseases. So you can't blame the flu on this one.

That's just life though: sickness and death happen.

There are 15,000 more people dying per week on a seasonally-adjusted weekly basis. That's an increase of ~25%, from a 55,000 average to ~70,000 weekly death average. You can't sweep these numbers under the rug, the death increase in the USA is huge. And the COVID19 deaths continue to increase across this country (though it seems to be calming down in NYC finally).

Here's the truly scary part: this +15,000 deaths/week happened in a period of lockdowns, when a large portion of the country shut down, only performed essential travel. Airports were largely shut down, international travel is minimized, church was largely cancelled. This increase in deaths is basically the best case scenario, as we in the USA are clearly entering lockdown fatigue.

----------

The way COVID19 kills you is barely understood. Only this past week have people noticed that strokes seem to be related to COVID19 infections. We'll have to go over the numbers and search for excess stroke and heart-attack deaths, now that we know that COVID19 seems to cause blood clots. Initially, the scientists expected Pnumonia to be the main killer, but as we learn more about this disease, we will have to adjust our numbers with our new understanding. All excess stroke, heart attack, and pnumonia deaths are now suspected COVID19 indicators.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Look closely at that graph: it's misleading because it starts at 50,000, not 0. It shows a jump by roughly 10,000 extra deaths. 4,000 of those were not COVID related (as in died because not getting treatment) and 6,000 died of COVID knowing they're overreporting COVID in death certificates due to CDC direction. Put it together than there's only 11% more deaths than normal potentially attributable to COVID-19 and 9% attributable to quarantine.

They couldn't even chart Washington State because there were only 100 excess deaths and 310 deaths were reported as COVID related which strongly implies 2 out of 3 of those that died were likely to die anyway.

My assertion that the quarantine is as harmful as the virus rings true. In NYC, it looks like quarantine resulted in more deaths than COVID, for example.

This data does strongly suggest COVID-19 has higher mortality than influenza but it also suggests quarantine is causing a lot of harm itself. A reasonable balance must be struck.


Is 11% warranted for shutting down entire economies? I'd argue not.

The bump in deaths is in March 2020. Influenza-A + Influenza-B are winter (November to Feburary) diseases. So you can't blame the flu on this one.

Influenza-B hit in October-November. Influenza-A picked up in January through at least March.

All About the Flu: Symptoms, Causes, and Treatments

The flu and the common cold may seem very similar at first (and overlap some with COVID-19!). Here’s what you need to know to correctly identify the flu and get the treatment you need.

www.healthline.com

The fact there isn't a bump in Washington Post's chart for that double whammy is surprising.



Washington Post says their source is "federal data" but CDC only shows the latest mortality data for 2017. The numbers they are working with fall into that "preliminary" category I was talking about before.

All excess stroke, heart attack, and pnumonia deaths are now suspected COVID19 indicators.

Heart attack is #1
Stroke is #5
Pneumonia is #8
Just because a person dies of these things doesn't mean it had anything to do with COVID-19.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Heart attack is #1
Stroke is #5
Pneumonia is #8
Just because a person dies of these things doesn't mean it had anything to do with COVID-19.

EXCESS heart attacks, Stroke, and Pneumonia are COVID19 indicators. As COVID19 has been shown to cause those kinds of deaths. We compare the heart attacks, strokes, and pneumonia deaths from this year, compared to years prior. We see that they're up, way higher than the preliminary COVID19 death numbers. Anyone seeing these charts recognizes that COVID19 deaths, as currently reported, is grossly underreporting the deaths due to the disease.

Because COVID19 is a new, and poorly understood, disease, morticians may see a heart attack and report the death as... well... a heart attack, instead of a proper COVID19 death. (which is known to cause heart attacks). This becomes a source of underreporting. Ditto for strokes and pneumonia.

Washington Post says their source is "federal data" but CDC only shows the latest mortality data for 2017. The numbers they are working with fall into that "preliminary" category I was talking about before.

Yes. Because CDC official data takes years to get out the door. We need preliminary results, because this thing is killing Americans today. We can't wait years for the official numbers to trickle in before doing something about this disease. Accepting a degree of inaccuracy, rather than sitting still with our heads in the sand, is the only reasonable way to move forward.

Or what, do you really want to keep this lockdown until the CDC official data is released next year or two? That's just insane. We should use the preliminary results (even if inaccurate) to reopen the country earlier.

We know that preliminary death counts undercount, we know that excess deaths are up. Your argument that we're somehow overcounting deaths doesn't hold up to any level of scrutiny, and will simply be another moving goalpost forgotten by some members of the public. "Just the Flu", "Just 1 or 2 cases", "Hydroxychloroquine", and now "Overcounting deaths". How many goalposts have to move in just a few weeks before we stop listening?

This data does strongly suggest COVID-19 has higher mortality than influenza but it also suggests quarantine is causing a lot of harm itself.

What is your methodology for getting "deaths from quarantine" ??

Because the methodology for getting "deaths from COVID19" is to get physicians to individually certify the deaths of every American. (And no, CDC does NOT change the death certificates. Each death certificate is the opinion of the mortician. I don't even know how the bureaucrats could change the numbers in the way you imply). I'm going to bet that your methodology of "deaths from quarantine" is poor compared to the COVID19 numbers.

 

[rtwjunkie]

That must be why they keep issuing guidance different than Trump.

@Tatty_One or @the54thvoid I personally don’t want this moved to the lounge because some people like this do not know how to conversate neutrally based on stats, which is what this thread is.

 

[dragontamer5788]

That must be why they keep issuing guidance different than Trump

Robert R. Redfield - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Robert R. Redfield is Trump's pick (EDIT: Well, Alex Azar's pick, but Alex Azar is Trump's pick). Facts be facts man. If Trump doesn't like Mr. Redfield's leadership of the CDC, he could pick someone else to lead.

Trump is pretty unique as a modern president. He picks someone. And when they don't do what he likes, he publicly shames them, trying to get those picks to do his bidding more. Lets not be ignorant to the clear cut political games being played here.

At the end of the day, the buck stops with the President. Trump's pick, Trump's administration, Trump's numbers. The numbers being reported by the CDC are under Mr. Redfield's leadership and policies.

 

[lexluthermiester]

That will be enough of the politically charged, off topic comments. Take it to the other COVID19 thread please.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Because COVID19 is a new, and poorly understood, disease, morticians may see a heart attack and report the death as... well... a heart attack, instead of a proper COVID19 death. (which is known to cause heart attacks). This becomes a source of underreporting. Ditto for strokes and pneumonia.

We already went over that: "cardiac arrest" should be the "immediate cause" on the death certificate and if there's any reason to believe COVID-19 was involved, that goes on one of the "underlying cause" lines as the CDC recommended in their notice.

Or what, do you really want to keep this lockdown until the CDC official data is released next year or two?

I expect governors and mayors to do what they think is best for their constituents based on what they're hearing from practicing physicians and hospital administrators. If local hospitals are underutilized, open things up. If they start getting concerned about incoming case load, close the hot spots down.

We know that preliminary death counts undercount, we know that excess deaths are up. Your argument that we're somehow overcounting deaths doesn't hold up to any level of scrutiny, and will simply be another moving goalpost forgotten by some members of the public. "Just the Flu", "Just 1 or 2 cases", "Hydroxychloroquine", and now "Overcounting deaths". How many goalposts have to move in just a few weeks before we stop listening?

We don't know how many deaths are a direct result of quarantine/fear of going to hospital which also pile into "excess deaths." That's why you need an organization like CDC to macro-analyze the data. There's so many relatively minor diseases that do kill if they go untreated (e.g. appendicitis).

What is your methodology for getting "deaths from quarantine" ??

Excess deaths that make no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate.


Consider this: virtually all severe cases of any disease end up at hospitals due to the individual's need for help. Because of quarantine, many elect not to until the symptoms are so severe, they die before they can even get treatment. That includes COVID-19 cases and everything else. COVID-19 isn't the primary cause of death, it's a failure to seek help because of the quarantine. Further, confirmed cases of COVID-19 deaths for USA are something like 5-6% yet excessive death reporting places them at roughly 11%. It is very possible, if not likely, that 5% of death certificates have COVID-19 on them because they failed to seek treatment, not because of the COVID-19 directly. Washington state's numbers suggest this to be true: they were early to lockdown, there hasn't been many reported COVID-19 deaths, but they still have excessive deaths.

Also consider this: influenza that develops pneumonia, without professional help, often proves fatal. A condition that wouldn't usually result in a fatality under normal circumstances becomes fatal during quarantine contributing to excessive deaths.

It's going to take a long time to sort out this mess. Scientists are still analyzing SARS-CoV and that was 17 years ago.

 

[lexluthermiester]

It's going to take a long time to sort out this mess.

This is very true. This is the first time medical science has been somewhat ready to take on a outbreak of this nature. We are massively more advanced than we were during the "Spanish Flu" outbreak. That killed in the 10's of millions. COVID19 has not broken 300k(as of today). Even AIDS(HIV) in the 80's/90's killed more. As a civilization, even fragmented as nations are, we are far more prepared today than even just a half a lifetime ago. There were many who predicted deaths in the millions, yet that hasn't happened. What has happened is a lot of science and data that we will learn from and understand for decades to come.

 

[bogmali]

If you cannot present your argument without having to include your political bias, then don't post it-plain and simple. Thread has been cleansed from all the political nonsense.

 

[dragontamer5788]

I expect governors and mayors to do what they think is best for their constituents based on what they're hearing from practicing physicians and hospital administrators. If local hospitals are underutilized, open things up. If they start getting concerned about incoming case load, close the hot spots down.

I appreciate your patience with me. I still very strongly disagree with your post. But I'll instead point out what I agree with as a closer.

I'll leave this discussion by pointing out that what you propose here is solid sense. Keeping things data-oriented and focused on facts is mostly all I ask for. Nonetheless, an entire generation of people I'm in contact with are conspiracy minded fools who are pissing me off to no end, but I'll try to keep that anger aimed elsewhere instead of directed at your posts from here on out.

As such, I've taken the quote above to mostly say, yes, I agree with this. And what you say here is reasonable. Stick to the data, believe in our doctors and physicians. We have a large amount of data available now thanks to increased testing in the USA, and I do think we can start focusing on geographic hot-spots now.

 

[the54thvoid]

We don't know how many deaths are a direct result of quarantine/fear of going to hospital which also pile into "excess deaths."

This is true but it is also the exact reason for invoking the quarantine and isolation measures -- to keep hospital capacity at non-critical levels. It's why many countries rushed to build 'super' hopsitals and rushed to get ventilators. The problem is, now people are seeing the numbers decelerate, they're forgetting the exact reason why the numbers are slowing and the hospitals are still coping (though ask a nurse in a hotpot and they'd disagree). This decline in virus effect has taken weeks of lockdown.

What we (royal 'we') must be mindful of is a generalised discussion on lockdown, as though lifting it is going to work because rates are dropping. Some people see comments on those grounds as universal, then take to the streets to protest. The issue is heavily politicised and that helps nobody, and because of how politics works, its unavoidable. However, common sense must be applied when discussing the current situation, and that includes a retrospect on what has brought us to the state we're in now (lowering rises in cases/deaths).

There were many who predicted deaths in the millions, yet that hasn't happened.

Yes, and that's why the world went into lockdown - to prevent that number. This is my point above. The predicted millions was without a lockdown... Science has assisted in our treatment but in the absence of a vaccine, we've had to rely on physical measures to reduce transmission. We all need to go back and look at the pre-lockdown graphs for the speed of the spread. It was only with quarantine measures that it was slowed down. You can read the global news and find hotspots now where communities had no lockdown in place - cases are still surging.

Coronavirus: Disease meets deforestation at heart of Brazil's Amazon

Coronavirus has overwhelmed Manaus, the Amazon's biggest city, and the worst is yet to come.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Vayra86]

Look closely at that graph: it's misleading because it starts at 50,000, not 0. It shows a jump by roughly 10,000 extra deaths. 4,000 of those were not COVID related (as in died because not getting treatment) and 6,000 died of COVID knowing they're overreporting COVID in death certificates due to CDC direction. Put it together than there's only 11% more deaths than normal potentially attributable to COVID-19 and 9% attributable to quarantine.

They couldn't even chart Washington State because there were only 100 excess deaths and 310 deaths were reported as COVID related which strongly implies 2 out of 3 of those that died were likely to die anyway.

My assertion that the quarantine is as harmful as the virus rings true. In NYC, it looks like quarantine resulted in more deaths than COVID, for example.

This data does strongly suggest COVID-19 has higher mortality than influenza but it also suggests quarantine is causing a lot of harm itself. A reasonable balance must be struck.


Is 11% warranted for shutting down entire economies? I'd argue not.


Influenza-B hit in October-November. Influenza-A picked up in January through at least March.

All About the Flu: Symptoms, Causes, and Treatments

The flu and the common cold may seem very similar at first (and overlap some with COVID-19!). Here’s what you need to know to correctly identify the flu and get the treatment you need.

www.healthline.com

The fact there isn't a bump in Washington Post's chart for that double whammy is surprising.



Washington Post says their source is "federal data" but CDC only shows the latest mortality data for 2017. The numbers they are working with fall into that "preliminary" category I was talking about before.


Heart attack is #1
Stroke is #5
Pneumonia is #8
Just because a person dies of these things doesn't mean it had anything to do with COVID-19.

The thing is. We have not had a serious influenza outbreak this winter or spring season. The 2018 peak was already exceptional and the numbers in NL attribute at least half of the additional deaths to Covid19. Yes, it is good to teconsider lockdowns on all aspects of them, and that time is now coming. Note: the US is behind the EU curve by a few weeks. We are generally, carefully considering loosening up and already seeing elevated infection numbers again.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

The problem is, now people are seeing the numbers decelerate, they're forgetting the exact reason why the numbers are slowing and the hospitals are still coping (though ask a nurse in a hotpot and they'd disagree).

Their data ends at April 4 before the lockdown had any affect. We need another month of data to make that claim. Even then, in places like NYC, it didn't slow down much.

Some people see comments on those grounds as universal, then take to the streets to protest.

I think the protests are mostly driven by people's inability to sustain themselves financially. Most people don't have much more than a month's worth of savings which has been exhausted.

The issue is heavily politicised and that helps nobody, and because of how politics works, its unavoidable. However, common sense must be applied when discussing the current situation, and that includes a retrospect on what has brought us to the state we're in now (lowering rises in cases/deaths).

Consider what I said above (financially and excess deaths) when reading this:

Three family members charged in shooting death of security guard who told a customer to put on a face mask | CNN

Three family members have been charged in the killing of a security guard who told a customer at a Michigan Family Dollar store to wear a state-mandated face mask, officials said on Monday.

edition.cnn.com

No access to masks -> need food -> go to store to get food -> get denied -> get violent because of desperation -> people die that likely wouldn't have without quarantine -> excess deaths climb.

You can read the global news and find hotspots now where communities had no lockdown in place - cases are still surging.

It's surging around here again because of meat packers:

The Human Cost of Cheap Meat Gets Higher in the Pandemic

Working in a processing plant has always been grueling and dangerous. With Covid-19, it’s even scarier.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[the54thvoid]

The lockdown reduced the capacity for the virus to spread. It lowered the R number. That much is clear. Deaths lag behind all lockdown beginnings, by 2-4 weeks, situation dependent. Curves didn't flatten without interventions.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

That's why we need that data. COVID cases may have flattened but excessive deaths may not have because of the impact of quarantine. It's too soon to tell. Hopefully there will be another analysis with fresh data in 2-3 weeks.

 

[the54thvoid]

That's why we need that data. COVID cases may have flattened but excessive deaths may not have because of the impact of quarantine. It's too soon to tell. Hopefully there will be another analysis with fresh data in 2-3 weeks.

I agree on that. However, we must bear in mind that figure is, in isolation, meaningless. What we will never know and what it should be weighted against, is how many were saved (from overburdened health systems) because we did enact a quarantine.

We're ignoring the position:

If we don't enact a quarantine, 'X' people will die.

and appear to be focussing on:

We've enacted a quarantine, 'Y' people will die.

Given the certainty no quarantine would swamp the capacity to deal with the virus in medical arenas, the 'X' value is more than likely far higher than the 'Y' value.

Of course, we'll never know what 'X' is.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25702 confirmed infected --- 178 more
- 1743 recovered --- 31 more
- 1074 fatalities --- 11 more
- 258488 suspected cases --- 3978 more
- 426836 tests taken --- hasn't been updated, for the last 3 days
- 2671 waiting for test results --- 89 less
- 25066 under watch from authorities --- 15 less
- 818 hospitalized --- 5 more
- 134 in ICU --- 9 less

 

[FordGT90Concept]

I agree on that. However, we must bear in mind that figure is, in isolation, meaningless. What we will never know and what it should be weighted against, is how many were saved (from overburdened health systems) because we did enact a quarantine.

We're ignoring the position:

If we don't enact a quarantine, 'X' people will die.

and appear to be focussing on:

We've enacted a quarantine, 'Y' people will die.

Given the certainty no quarantine would swamp the capacity to deal with the virus in medical arenas, the 'X' value is more than likely far higher than the 'Y' value.

Of course, we'll never know what 'X' is.

It's not that simple. For example, quarantine *stopped* elective procedures like cancer screenings. Something that would have been caught months ago potentially now won't. We're going to see an uptick in deaths across the board simply because preventative medicine is not being practiced.

Quarantine already swamped some healthcare facilities because COVID-19 is highly infectious. These are also the places with high population density where quarantine doesn't work well. It would not surprise me at all if >60% of NYC residents had or have had COVID-19, for example. In other words, what COVID-19 has done there is the worst possible scenario and it's already passing. Any future outbreaks there are going to be relatively minor by comparison and only a few facilities in NYC were overwhelmed largely because elective procedures ended so there was a lot of unused capacity.

Meh, it's all guesstimates at this point. We're going to find out as things open up. Just keep in mind that more cases isn't necessarily a bad thing. More deaths is but only when those deaths exceed seasonal normals. We can end the COVID-19 pandemic this year by having 70%+ of the global population having had it. We're not going to know how detrimental quarantine was to public health until we try easing it.


I know for a fact that my local hospital lost $700,000 USD last month because people aren't coming in. In that same period they saw a total of three COVID-19 cases and none of these required hospitalization AFAIK. They're effectively bleeding money just because the government said so, not for any practical reason.